GC After Stage 7 -- Handicapping the Field

[wimpyVO2]

GC after Stage 7

1 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) T-Mobile
2 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak
3 Michael Rogers (Aus) T-Mobile
4 Patrik Sinkewitz (Ger) T-Mobile
5 Marcus Fothen (Ger) Gerolsteiner
6 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile

7 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears
8 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto

9 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank
10 David Zabriskie (USA) Team CSC
11 Matthias Kessler (Ger) T-Mobile

12 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2R-Prevoyance
13 Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Discovery Channel
14 Eddy Mazzoleni (Ita) T-Mobile
15 Sebastian Lang (Ger) Gerolsteiner
16 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC
17 George Hincapie (USA) Discovery Channel
18 Oscar Pereiro (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears

Who can climb in the mountains among this group? That will tell us who
the real contenders are.

Landis
Rogers
Sinkewitz (young climber with promising future)
Kloden
Karpets
Evans
Menchov (winner of Vuelta in the Clean Division)
Savoldelli
Sastre
Hincapie
Pereiro

Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?

I said in an earlier post that Savoldelli was going to overtake
Hincapie in the mountains... I didn't think it was going to be this
soon. Interesting to see if Johan makes Paolo the protected one and
George becomes super-domestique once again...

[Jeff Jones]

wimpyVO2 wrote:

>
> Who can climb in the mountains among this group? That will tell us who
> the real contenders are.
>
> Landis
> Rogers
> Sinkewitz (young climber with promising future)
> Kloden
> Karpets
> Evans
> Menchov (winner of Vuelta in the Clean Division)
> Savoldelli
> Sastre
> Hincapie
> Pereiro
>
> Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
>
Er, Gonchar?

2004 Giro final GC

1 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Saeco
88.40.43
2 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) De Nardi
2.02
3 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saeco
2.05

(http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/giro04/?id=results/stage20)

He's not the world's greatest climber, but he is consistent at limiting
his losses in the mountains. He might have done better in this year's
Giro (where he also had the pink) had he not crashed badly.

Even without Jan and Sevilla, T-Mobile has a pretty good team for this
Tour.

Jeff

[B. Lafferty]

"Jeff Jones" > wrote in message
oups.com...
>
> wimpyVO2 wrote:
>
>>
>> Who can climb in the mountains among this group? That will tell us who
>> the real contenders are.
>>
>> Landis
>> Rogers
>> Sinkewitz (young climber with promising future)
>> Kloden
>> Karpets
>> Evans
>> Menchov (winner of Vuelta in the Clean Division)
>> Savoldelli
>> Sastre
>> Hincapie
>> Pereiro
>>
>> Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
>>
> Er, Gonchar?
>
> 2004 Giro final GC
>
> 1 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Saeco
> 88.40.43
> 2 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) De Nardi
> 2.02
> 3 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saeco
> 2.05
>
> (http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/giro04/?id=results/stage20)
>
> He's not the world's greatest climber, but he is consistent at limiting
> his losses in the mountains. He might have done better in this year's
> Giro (where he also had the pink) had he not crashed badly.
>
> Even without Jan and Sevilla, T-Mobile has a pretty good team for this
> Tour.
>
> Jeff
>
It's been a while since we've seen someone exhibiting such pure joy on the
podium in the Tour. In as much as this Tour isn't overly difficult in the
mountains, he may have a shot at the overall.

[Scoot]

B. Lafferty wrote:
> It's been a while since we've seen someone exhibiting such pure joy on the
> podium in the Tour. In as much as this Tour isn't overly difficult in the
> mountains, he may have a shot at the overall.

It was nice to seeing someone doing the "Dance Of Joy" on the podium.

Scoot
SDG

[Kyle Legate]

wimpyVO2 wrote:
>
> Landis
> Rogers
> Sinkewitz (young climber with promising future)
> Kloden
> Karpets
> Evans
> Menchov (winner of Vuelta in the Clean Division)
> Savoldelli
> Sastre
> Hincapie
> Pereiro
>
> Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
>
David Millar.

[Simon Brooke]

in message . com>,
wimpyVO2 ') wrote:

> Who can climb in the mountains among this group? That will tell us who
> the real contenders are.
>
> Landis
> Rogers
> Sinkewitz (young climber with promising future)
> Kloden
> Karpets
> Evans
> Menchov (winner of Vuelta in the Clean Division)
> Savoldelli
> Sastre
> Hincapie
> Pereiro
>
> Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
>
> I said in an earlier post that Savoldelli was going to overtake
> Hincapie in the mountains...

How Hincapie will compare to others in the mountains I don't know, but
Savoldelli could not stay with the likes of Simeoni and Sastre back in
May.

The real contenders look to me at this stage to be

* Kloden (TMo looking incredibly strong);
* Gonchar (incumbent advantage, took 2nd behind Cunego in 2004 Giro);
* Landis (would have done better today but for the puncture, and can
climb);
* Sastre (fine as an individual, but the team have taken a beating);
* Menchov (again, fine as an individual, but will Rabobank focus on him
or on Rasmussen?);
* Rasmussen (temperamental and fragile, but on his day an awesome
climber - but, again, will Rabonbank commit to him?);
* Simoni (five minutes adrift on GC but a formidable climber who can TT
and whose team will concentrate on him).

I'll confess I'd /like/ to see an all-European podium, if only to wipe
the grins off some of the smug transatlantic xenophobes and chauvinists
who post to this group; but I also think that (depending on what happens
to Landis) we're genuinely quite likely to see an all-European podium.

--
(Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

;; Semper in faecibus sumus, sole profundum variat.

[Sandy]

Kyle Legate a écrit :
> wimpyVO2 wrote:
>>
>> Landis
>> Rogers
>> Sinkewitz (young climber with promising future)
>> Kloden
>> Karpets
>> Evans
>> Menchov (winner of Vuelta in the Clean Division)
>> Savoldelli
>> Sastre
>> Hincapie
>> Pereiro
>>
>> Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
>>
> David Millar.
He's not for Paris, but Biarritz.

[Carl Sundquist]

"Simon Brooke" > wrote in message
...
>
> I'll confess I'd /like/ to see an all-European podium, if only to wipe
> the grins off some of the smug transatlantic xenophobes and chauvinists
> who post to this group

Rbr has nothing on xenophobia/chauvinism compared to rec.motorcycles.racing.
Check out Mark N.

[Ryan Cousineau]

In article >,
Simon Brooke > wrote:

> in message . com>,
> wimpyVO2 ') wrote:

> > Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
> >
> > I said in an earlier post that Savoldelli was going to overtake
> > Hincapie in the mountains...
>
> How Hincapie will compare to others in the mountains I don't know, but
> Savoldelli could not stay with the likes of Simeoni and Sastre back in
> May.

Hincapie won the queen stage last year:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/tour05/?id=results/tour0515

The question is whether he can do that again and again, and not lose
time, and make time on guys like Landis.

> The real contenders look to me at this stage to be
>
> * Kloden (TMo looking incredibly strong);
> * Gonchar (incumbent advantage, took 2nd behind Cunego in 2004 Giro);
> * Landis (would have done better today but for the puncture, and can
> climb);

Kloden is, I agree, underrated. Landis has to be a--if not
THE--favourite. Is Gonchar more than a TT specialist?

> * Sastre (fine as an individual, but the team have taken a beating);
> * Menchov (again, fine as an individual, but will Rabobank focus on him
> or on Rasmussen?);
> * Rasmussen (temperamental and fragile, but on his day an awesome
> climber - but, again, will Rabonbank commit to him?);

What is Rasmussen doing on a list of GC hopefuls? He lost 6:30 to
Gonchar, 5:30 to Landis, and some time to every other real hopeful. I
don't know Menchov well (won a Vuelta, no?), but I have to believe that
Rabobank now has two main projects: let Chicken do what he does and take
the spots (his big job in the second TT will be finishing inside the
Hors Delai time), and get Menchov on the box.

Do you really believe Rasmussen can find 10-12 minutes in the mountains?
There's precedent, but against a motivated pack with plenty of guns and
radios, that's very unlikely.

> * Simoni (five minutes adrift on GC but a formidable climber who can TT
> and whose team will concentrate on him).

Yes but, and I realize this is the post Lance+Disco dominance era, and
the old rules don't always apply, but FIVE MINUTES DOWN ON GC!

> I'll confess I'd /like/ to see an all-European podium, if only to wipe
> the grins off some of the smug transatlantic xenophobes and chauvinists
> who post to this group; but I also think that (depending on what happens
> to Landis) we're genuinely quite likely to see an all-European podium.

We all choose our favourites for different reasons, I guess.

The simple formula now is this: the winner has to be either a great
climber who can limit losses in the TT, or a great TTist who can survive
the mountains (the Indurain model).

As a first order cut, you can probably eliminate any climbers outside of
the top-20 on GC now. They're too far back. That leaves you with riders
who can climb, but who also are within about 3 minutes of the leader.

Can Gonchar climb? Well, he has two really good GC placings at the Giro:

http://www.t-mobile-team.com/cms/tmoteam/en/team/team2005/riders/template
Id=renderInternalPage/contentID=77214/id=9158.html

As we all know, GC palmares at the Giro are the graveyard of tour
aspirations.

He's a TT specialist, and if he doesn't lose at least two minutes in the
mountains to Klodi and Floyd, I'll give up the Millar Line (I'll have
to; I'd be too busy watching the spectacle of Gonchar holding the
yellow). I think the real number will be substantially larger than 2
minutes.

Looking down the short list, I'd say Landis, Klodi, Menchov, Savoldelli,
and Honcapie. Sastre? I dunno.

Thursday's stage goes over Tourmalet and then four Cat1 climbs. It's not
technically a mountaintop finish, as the final climb is 2 km from the
finish, and the road descends 30 m in those 2 km. In other words, it's a
virtual mountaintop finish.

We'll know Thursday who has the good stuff. I'm bad at predictions, but
see nothing wrong with guessing that Landis is a better climber than
Gonchar, and a good enough climber to hold off everyone else until the
next TT.

That's all you need,

--
Ryan Cousineau http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

[B. Lafferty]

"Ryan Cousineau" > wrote in message
...
> In article >,
> Simon Brooke > wrote:
>
>> in message . com>,
>> wimpyVO2 ') wrote:
>
>> > Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
>> >
>> > I said in an earlier post that Savoldelli was going to overtake
>> > Hincapie in the mountains...
>>
>> How Hincapie will compare to others in the mountains I don't know, but
>> Savoldelli could not stay with the likes of Simeoni and Sastre back in
>> May.
>
> Hincapie won the queen stage last year:
>
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/tour05/?id=results/tour0515
>
> The question is whether he can do that again and again, and not lose
> time, and make time on guys like Landis.
>
>> The real contenders look to me at this stage to be
>>
>> * Kloden (TMo looking incredibly strong);
>> * Gonchar (incumbent advantage, took 2nd behind Cunego in 2004 Giro);
>> * Landis (would have done better today but for the puncture, and can
>> climb);
>
> Kloden is, I agree, underrated. Landis has to be a--if not
> THE--favourite. Is Gonchar more than a TT specialist?
>
>> * Sastre (fine as an individual, but the team have taken a beating);
>> * Menchov (again, fine as an individual, but will Rabobank focus on him
>> or on Rasmussen?);
>> * Rasmussen (temperamental and fragile, but on his day an awesome
>> climber - but, again, will Rabonbank commit to him?);
>
> What is Rasmussen doing on a list of GC hopefuls? He lost 6:30 to
> Gonchar, 5:30 to Landis, and some time to every other real hopeful. I
> don't know Menchov well (won a Vuelta, no?), but I have to believe that
> Rabobank now has two main projects: let Chicken do what he does and take
> the spots (his big job in the second TT will be finishing inside the
> Hors Delai time), and get Menchov on the box.
>
> Do you really believe Rasmussen can find 10-12 minutes in the mountains?
> There's precedent, but against a motivated pack with plenty of guns and
> radios, that's very unlikely.
>
>> * Simoni (five minutes adrift on GC but a formidable climber who can TT
>> and whose team will concentrate on him).
>
> Yes but, and I realize this is the post Lance+Disco dominance era, and
> the old rules don't always apply, but FIVE MINUTES DOWN ON GC!
>
>> I'll confess I'd /like/ to see an all-European podium, if only to wipe
>> the grins off some of the smug transatlantic xenophobes and chauvinists
>> who post to this group; but I also think that (depending on what happens
>> to Landis) we're genuinely quite likely to see an all-European podium.
>
> We all choose our favourites for different reasons, I guess.
>
> The simple formula now is this: the winner has to be either a great
> climber who can limit losses in the TT, or a great TTist who can survive
> the mountains (the Indurain model).
>
> As a first order cut, you can probably eliminate any climbers outside of
> the top-20 on GC now. They're too far back. That leaves you with riders
> who can climb, but who also are within about 3 minutes of the leader.
>
> Can Gonchar climb? Well, he has two really good GC placings at the Giro:
>
> http://www.t-mobile-team.com/cms/tmoteam/en/team/team2005/riders/template
> Id=renderInternalPage/contentID=77214/id=9158.html
>
> As we all know, GC palmares at the Giro are the graveyard of tour
> aspirations.
>
> He's a TT specialist, and if he doesn't lose at least two minutes in the
> mountains to Klodi and Floyd, I'll give up the Millar Line (I'll have
> to; I'd be too busy watching the spectacle of Gonchar holding the
> yellow). I think the real number will be substantially larger than 2
> minutes.
>
> Looking down the short list, I'd say Landis, Klodi, Menchov, Savoldelli,
> and Honcapie. Sastre? I dunno.
>
> Thursday's stage goes over Tourmalet and then four Cat1 climbs. It's not
> technically a mountaintop finish, as the final climb is 2 km from the
> finish, and the road descends 30 m in those 2 km. In other words, it's a
> virtual mountaintop finish.
>
> We'll know Thursday who has the good stuff. I'm bad at predictions, but
> see nothing wrong with guessing that Landis is a better climber than
> Gonchar, and a good enough climber to hold off everyone else until the
> next TT.
>
> That's all you need,
>
> --
> Ryan Cousineau http://www.wiredcola.com/
> "I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
> to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

The Col du Portillon has a steep section about 3km from the top. It's
listed at 8.2% but a friend of mine who has ridden it many times (he'll be
there Thursday as his in-laws live 2km away) claims it's steeper. I would
look for one or more of the climbers with the ability to accelerate try to
get away there. Depending on who gets away, they may take some time by the
final ascent. Cunego is very much an unknown quantity right now. He's had
a nice quiet race. It should be a fun day for all.

[Howard Kveck]

In article <OqWrg.331255$5Z.131141@dukeread02>, "Carl Sundquist" >
wrote:

> "Simon Brooke" > wrote in message
> ...
> >
> > I'll confess I'd /like/ to see an all-European podium, if only to wipe
> > the grins off some of the smug transatlantic xenophobes and chauvinists
> > who post to this group
>
> Rbr has nothing on xenophobia/chauvinism compared to rec.motorcycles.racing.
> Check out Mark N.

Try "long-winded xenophobe." And he always finds a way to make it almost seem
reasonable.

--
tanx,
Howard

Never take a tenant with a monkey.

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

[Bounty Bob]

Ryan Cousineau wrote:
> In article >,
> Simon Brooke > wrote:
>
>> in message . com>,
>> wimpyVO2 ') wrote:
>> * Rasmussen (temperamental and fragile, but on his day an awesome
>> climber - but, again, will Rabonbank commit to him?);

> What is Rasmussen doing on a list of GC hopefuls? He lost 6:30 to
> Gonchar, 5:30 to Landis, and some time to every other real hopeful. I
> don't know Menchov well (won a Vuelta, no?), but I have to believe that
> Rabobank now has two main projects: let Chicken do what he does and take
> the spots (his big job in the second TT will be finishing inside the
> Hors Delai time), and get Menchov on the box.

> Do you really believe Rasmussen can find 10-12 minutes in the mountains?
> There's precedent, but against a motivated pack with plenty of guns and
> radios, that's very unlikely.

>> * Simoni (five minutes adrift on GC but a formidable climber who can TT
>> and whose team will concentrate on him).

> Yes but, and I realize this is the post Lance+Disco dominance era, and
> the old rules don't always apply, but FIVE MINUTES DOWN ON GC!

I agree with this, its the numbers of riders that must count
against a real climber who loses heaps in the time trial.
Just look at all the guys who can climb ok who
rode 1:03's in the timetrial. A guy losing 5 minutes
in both time trials has to take 10 minutes out of every
single one of them!

[Raptor]

The homer line:

We've never seen Georgie ride the TdF when he didn't have to work for
Lance. He might have climbing chops he only hinted at with last year's
stage win.

Z spent his June training on the canyons of Utah. This explains his TT
slide, and could've worked some magic on his climbing form.

Levi's setting himself up for a Tyler-esque escape later. Either that or
a successful two-man break with Horner.

Floyd is the soft-spoken Man.

I'm no xenophobe, so I'll be watching avidly regardless of who's on top.
I'm just disappointed Z let me down. He owed me a victory because, well,
because I live in the same town as he does.

--
Lynn Wallace http://www.xmission.com/~lawall
I have nothing but contempt and anger for those who betray the
trust by exposing the name of our sources. They are, in my view,
the most insidious of traitors."
George H.W. Bush, April 16, 1999,

[Donald Munro]

Ryan Cousineau wrote:

> Hincapie won the queen stage last year:
>
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/tour05/?id=results/tour0515
>
> The question is whether he can do that again and again, and not lose
> time, and make time on guys like Landis.

He won't be allowed to go away in a break again this year. He was way down
on GC last year when he won that stage so no one chased him down.

> Looking down the short list, I'd say Landis, Klodi, Menchov, Savoldelli,
> and Honcapie. Sastre? I dunno.

I'd add Cadel Evans to that list.

[Bob Martin]

in 512523 20060709 003055 Ryan Cousineau > wrote:

>As we all know, GC palmares at the Giro are the graveyard of tour
>aspirations.
>

Unless your name is Indurain.

>We'll know Thursday who has the good stuff. I'm bad at predictions, but
>see nothing wrong with guessing that Landis is a better climber than
>Gonchar, and a good enough climber to hold off everyone else until the
>next TT.

I've been trying to think of a good performance in the mountains by Landis,
but I can't. I do remember him failing badly on the first big climb in the Vuelta
a couple of years ago. What is his reputation as a climber based on?

[Ewoud Dronkert]

Ryan Cousineau schreef:
> Rabobank now has two main projects: let Chicken do what he does and take
> the spots (his big job in the second TT will be finishing inside the
> Hors Delai time), and get Menchov on the box.

And Freire in green.


--
E. Dronkert

[Ewoud Dronkert]

B. Lafferty schreef:
> The Col du Portillon has a steep section about 3km from the top. It's
> listed at 8.2% but a friend of mine who has ridden it many times (he'll be
> there Thursday as his in-laws live 2km away) claims it's steeper.

http://www.salite.ch/portillo.htm


--
E. Dronkert

[B. Lafferty]

"Ewoud Dronkert" > wrote in message
...
> B. Lafferty schreef:
>> The Col du Portillon has a steep section about 3km from the top. It's
>> listed at 8.2% but a friend of mine who has ridden it many times (he'll
>> be there Thursday as his in-laws live 2km away) claims it's steeper.
>
> http://www.salite.ch/portillo.htm
>
>
> --
> E. Dronkert

Thanks. I'll forward the link to him.

[Steven L. Sheffield]

On 7/8/06 10:24 PM, in article , "Raptor"
> wrote:

> The homer line:
>
> We've never seen Georgie ride the TdF when he didn't have to work for
> Lance. He might have climbing chops he only hinted at with last year's
> stage win.


Lance rode the 1997 and 1998 Tours with Georgie?



> Z spent his June training on the canyons of Utah. This explains his TT
> slide, and could've worked some magic on his climbing form.


And doing some of the local training crits at RMR and DMV.

[Steven L. Sheffield]

On 7/9/06 2:44 AM, in article , "Bob
Martin" > wrote:

> in 512523 20060709 003055 Ryan Cousineau > wrote:
>
>> As we all know, GC palmares at the Giro are the graveyard of tour
>> aspirations.
>>
>
> Unless your name is Indurain.
>
>> We'll know Thursday who has the good stuff. I'm bad at predictions, but
>> see nothing wrong with guessing that Landis is a better climber than
>> Gonchar, and a good enough climber to hold off everyone else until the
>> next TT.
>
> I've been trying to think of a good performance in the mountains by Landis,
> but I can't. I do remember him failing badly on the first big climb in the
> Vuelta
> a couple of years ago. What is his reputation as a climber based on?



2004, most specifically the "No More Gifts" stage that Armstrong won, where
Landis pushed the pace up the final climb, attacked on the descent (only to
be caught by Kloden, who later lost the final sprint to Armstrong).

His win in Paris Nice was earned in the mountains as well.

[Simon Brooke]

in message >, Ryan
Cousineau ') wrote:

>> * Rasmussen (temperamental and fragile, but on his day an awesome
>> climber - but, again, will Rabonbank commit to him?);
>
> What is Rasmussen doing on a list of GC hopefuls? He lost 6:30 to
> Gonchar, 5:30 to Landis, and some time to every other real hopeful. I
> don't know Menchov well (won a Vuelta, no?), but I have to believe that
> Rabobank now has two main projects: let Chicken do what he does and
> take the spots (his big job in the second TT will be finishing inside
> the Hors Delai time), and get Menchov on the box.
>
> Do you really believe Rasmussen can find 10-12 minutes in the
> mountains? There's precedent, but against a motivated pack with plenty
> of guns and radios, that's very unlikely.

Look at last year's top GC finishers:

Last year This year
1 L. Armstrong (USA) DSC 86:15:02 DNS Retired
2 I. Basso (ITA) CSC + 00:04:40 DNS Withdrawn
3 J. Ullrich (GER) TMO + 00:06:21 DNS Withdrawn
4 F. Mancebo (ESP) IBA + 00:09:59 DNS Withdrawn
5 A. Vinokourov (KAZ)TMO + 00:11:01 DNS Team withdrawn
6 L. Leipheimer (USA)GST + 00:11:21 lags 6'17" on GC after ITT
7 M. Rasmussen (DEN) RAB + 00:11:33 lags 7'20" on GC after ITT

Where, on that list, are Landis, Hincapie, Zabriskie? They aren't there.
Landis was the third American at 9th, Hincapie fourth at 14th, Julich
(DNF6 this year) at 17th. To be fair, both Hincapie and Julich were
domestiqueing last year and that inevitably hurts their GC placing,
although by how much it's hard to say.

But on historical precedent Rasmussen /can/ do it. He can't have a worse
second ITT than he had last year. If he can climb like he did last year
he could win. He could also blow up big style - as I said, temperamental
and fragile. But awesome.

--
(Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

The Conservative Party now has the support of a smaller proportion of
the electorate in Scotland than Sinn Fein have in Northern Ireland.

[Simon Brooke]

Sorry, following up twice to the same post. Poor style.

in message >, Ryan
Cousineau ') wrote:

> In article >,
> Simon Brooke > wrote:
>> The real contenders look to me at this stage to be
>>
>> * Kloden (TMo looking incredibly strong);
>> * Gonchar (incumbent advantage, took 2nd behind Cunego in 2004 Giro);
>> * Landis (would have done better today but for the puncture, and can
>> climb);
>
> Kloden is, I agree, underrated. Landis has to be a--if not
> THE--favourite. Is Gonchar more than a TT specialist?

What you mean is, Landis is the only US contender left. To which I have
to say to you: time moves on. You do not have to have a US passport to
win the Tour de France.

>> * Sastre (fine as an individual, but the team have taken a beating);
>> * Menchov (again, fine as an individual, but will Rabobank focus on
>> him
>> or on Rasmussen?);
>> * Rasmussen (temperamental and fragile, but on his day an awesome
>> climber - but, again, will Rabonbank commit to him?);
>
> What is Rasmussen doing on a list of GC hopefuls?

This I've dealt with.

>> * Simoni (five minutes adrift on GC but a formidable climber who can
>> TT and whose team will concentrate on him).
>
> Yes but, and I realize this is the post Lance+Disco dominance era, and
> the old rules don't always apply, but FIVE MINUTES DOWN ON GC!

Well, I hope you're right, because I think he's a nasty niggly little
petty-minded whinging POS; but for all that he can climb.

>> I'll confess I'd /like/ to see an all-European podium, if only to wipe
>> the grins off some of the smug transatlantic xenophobes and
>> chauvinists who post to this group; but I also think that (depending
>> on what happens to Landis) we're genuinely quite likely to see an
>> all-European podium.
>
> We all choose our favourites for different reasons, I guess.

Mais naturellment.

> The simple formula now is this: the winner has to be either a great
> climber who can limit losses in the TT, or a great TTist who can
> survive the mountains (the Indurain model).

Or a great all rounder, yes.

> As a first order cut, you can probably eliminate any climbers outside
> of the top-20 on GC now.

The difference in a time trial stage between a truly great time triallist
and a truly appalling one is at most ten minutes (yesterday's result).
The difference on a mountain stage between a truly great climber and the
second best is about three minutes and five seconds (e.g. last year's
Stage 9, won by Rasmussen in a long solo break). There are two ITTs, one
of which is behind us. There are seven mountain stages, and they're all
in front of us. Any of the guys who are 'TT specialists who can climb'
have to lose less than two minutes on Rasmussen each day in the
mountains to beat him to Paris. They have to lose less than 40 seconds
to Simoni each day in the mountains to beat him to Paris.

> They're too far back. That leaves you with
> riders who can climb, but who also are within about 3 minutes of the
> leader.

Wait and see.

> Can Gonchar climb?

2005 Giro, mountain stages:
Stage Gonchar Savoldelli Time lost vs S Winner
11 8th 1st 2'03" Savoldelli
13 14th 9th 0'38" Ivan Parra
14 12th 10th 0'0" Ivan Parra
17 8th 7th 0'0" Ivan Basso
19 6th 7th 0'0" Jose' Rujano Guillen

Total tome lost vs Savoldelli 2'41"

On stage 14 (Selvio and Foscagno), 17 (mountain top finish at Colle di
Tenda) and 19 Gonchar finished with the same time as Savoldelli, who was
the top placed Discovery rider. The first American finished 122nd,
25'20" back. On stage 19 (Sestriere twice in one day), he /led/
Savoldelli up to the finish.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/photos/2005/giro05/?id=giro0519/40

So yes, Gonchar can climb. With the best we've got left, post Puerto.

> He's a TT specialist

What I've quoted above? That's a TT specialist? They ride mighty odd time
trials in your neck of the woods!

> , and if he doesn't lose at least two minutes in
> the mountains to Klodi and Floyd, I'll give up the Millar Line (I'll
> have to;

Yup.

--
(Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
;; This email may contain confidential or otherwise privileged
;; information, though, quite frankly, if you're not the intended
;; recipient and you've got nothing better to do than read other
;; folks' emails then I'm glad to have brightened up your sad little
;; life a tiny bit.

[Carl Sundquist]

"Simon Brooke" > wrote in message
...
>
> Look at last year's top GC finishers:
>
> Last year This year
> 1 L. Armstrong (USA) DSC 86:15:02 DNS Retired
> 2 I. Basso (ITA) CSC + 00:04:40 DNS Withdrawn
> 3 J. Ullrich (GER) TMO + 00:06:21 DNS Withdrawn
> 4 F. Mancebo (ESP) IBA + 00:09:59 DNS Withdrawn
> 5 A. Vinokourov (KAZ)TMO + 00:11:01 DNS Team withdrawn
> 6 L. Leipheimer (USA)GST + 00:11:21 lags 6'17" on GC after ITT
> 7 M. Rasmussen (DEN) RAB + 00:11:33 lags 7'20" on GC after ITT
>
> Where, on that list, are Landis, Hincapie, Zabriskie? They aren't there.
> Landis was the third American at 9th, Hincapie fourth at 14th, Julich
> (DNF6 this year) at 17th. To be fair, both Hincapie and Julich were
> domestiqueing last year and that inevitably hurts their GC placing,
> although by how much it's hard to say.
>
> But on historical precedent Rasmussen /can/ do it. He can't have a worse
> second ITT than he had last year. If he can climb like he did last year
> he could win. He could also blow up big style - as I said, temperamental
> and fragile. But awesome.

The dynamics of the race are rather different this year. Didn't Rasmussen go
out on some solo missions last year, grabbing handfuls of time because he
wasn't considered a GC contender? It's a different story this year. Anyone
who is thought viable for a spot on the podium isn't going to have that
opportunity.

[Michael Press]

In article
>,
"B. Lafferty" > wrote:

> The Col du Portillon has a steep section about 3km from the top. It's
> listed at 8.2% but a friend of mine who has ridden it many times (he'll be
> there Thursday as his in-laws live 2km away) claims it's steeper. I would
> look for one or more of the climbers with the ability to accelerate try to
> get away there. Depending on who gets away, they may take some time by the
> final ascent. Cunego is very much an unknown quantity right now. He's had
> a nice quiet race. It should be a fun day for all.

All climbs are steeper on some sections. 8.2% over 10
kilometers is guaranteed to have some very stiff
traverses.

--
Michael Press

[[email protected]]

Simon Brooke wrote:
> Ryan Cousineau ') wrote:
>
> > Kloden is, I agree, underrated. Landis has to be a--if not
> > THE--favourite. Is Gonchar more than a TT specialist?
>
> What you mean is, Landis is the only US contender left. To which I have
> to say to you: time moves on. You do not have to have a US passport to
> win the Tour de France.

Dumbass,

Enough with attributing opinions you don't like only to US homerism.
Also, Ryan is Canadian. I won't burden you with any imperfect
Canada:US::Scotland:England analogies - suffice it to say
that Canadians chafe under our imperial rule, and are hardly
likely to take up US boosterism in an overseas sporting event.

> The difference in a time trial stage between a truly great time triallist
> and a truly appalling one is at most ten minutes (yesterday's result).
> The difference on a mountain stage between a truly great climber and the
> second best is about three minutes and five seconds (e.g. last year's
> Stage 9, won by Rasmussen in a long solo break). There are two ITTs, one
> of which is behind us. There are seven mountain stages, and they're all
> in front of us. Any of the guys who are 'TT specialists who can climb'
> have to lose less than two minutes on Rasmussen each day in the
> mountains to beat him to Paris. They have to lose less than 40 seconds
> to Simoni each day in the mountains to beat him to Paris.

Rasmussen will not get free for long solo breaks without
being chased this year. There aren't seven mountain stages,
and Rasmusssen also won't take three minutes on every
mountain stage. Especially the ones that finish with a descent.
Even within Rabobank, Menchov probably has a better chance
than Rasmussen, depending on whether one of them has a
jour sans.

[Ryan Cousineau]

In article <A2bsg.332185$5Z.30098@dukeread02>,
"Carl Sundquist" > wrote:

> "Simon Brooke" > wrote in message
> ...
> >
> > Look at last year's top GC finishers:
> >
> > Last year This year
> > 1 L. Armstrong (USA) DSC 86:15:02 DNS Retired
> > 2 I. Basso (ITA) CSC + 00:04:40 DNS Withdrawn
> > 3 J. Ullrich (GER) TMO + 00:06:21 DNS Withdrawn
> > 4 F. Mancebo (ESP) IBA + 00:09:59 DNS Withdrawn
> > 5 A. Vinokourov (KAZ)TMO + 00:11:01 DNS Team withdrawn
> > 6 L. Leipheimer (USA)GST + 00:11:21 lags 6'17" on GC after ITT
> > 7 M. Rasmussen (DEN) RAB + 00:11:33 lags 7'20" on GC after ITT
> >
> > Where, on that list, are Landis, Hincapie, Zabriskie? They aren't there.
> > Landis was the third American at 9th, Hincapie fourth at 14th, Julich
> > (DNF6 this year) at 17th. To be fair, both Hincapie and Julich were
> > domestiqueing last year and that inevitably hurts their GC placing,
> > although by how much it's hard to say.
> >
> > But on historical precedent Rasmussen /can/ do it. He can't have a worse
> > second ITT than he had last year. If he can climb like he did last year
> > he could win. He could also blow up big style - as I said, temperamental
> > and fragile. But awesome.

You make a compelling case, but...

> The dynamics of the race are rather different this year. Didn't Rasmussen go
> out on some solo missions last year, grabbing handfuls of time because he
> wasn't considered a GC contender? It's a different story this year. Anyone
> who is thought viable for a spot on the podium isn't going to have that
> opportunity.

What Carl said, and one other factor: in the warm-up races this year
(Tour de Georgia, Paris-Nice, Tour de California) which Floyd rode, he
won all three. He's clearly showing superb form, and most of the other
guys who did well in warm-up races are not here, or like Levi
Leipheimer, have had a semaine sans.

Here was a fairly typical Rasmussen situation from last year:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005//tour05/?id=stages/tour058

Stage 8, long stage with four Cat 3 climbs and a Cat 2 16km before the
end.

Rasmussen lost 2 minutes to the Maillot Jaune group. His net on GC was
then 7 minutes.

I'm not saying Rasmussen couldn't have done better than this; I suspect
he was interested in having a few losses like this, because he was
working on his KoM run. The problem is that without losses like this, he
would not have been allowed to do what he did on Stage 9: win maximum
mountain points, and take the stage by six minutes.

It would be interesting to see a climber win the GC: Pantani was the
last, and before him, you have to look pretty far to find someone
meeting that description.

--
Ryan Cousineau http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

[Simon Brooke]

in message . com>,
') wrote:

> Rasmussen will not get free for long solo breaks without
> being chased this year. Â*There aren't seven mountain stages,
> and Rasmusssen also won't take three minutes on every
> mountain stage. Â*Especially the ones that finish with a descent.
> Even within Rabobank, Menchov probably has a better chance
> than Rasmussen, depending on whether one of them has a
> jour sans.

Oh, I agree; indeed, look up the thread, I said so. I was just responding
to Rien's assertion that Rasmussen /could/ /not/. He's unlikely to, in
my opinion; but he could.

--
(Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

Morning had broken, and there was nothing left for us to do
but pick up the pieces.

[Bob Martin]

in 512736 20060709 215827 Ryan Cousineau > wrote:

>What Carl said, and one other factor: in the warm-up races this year
>(Tour de Georgia, Paris-Nice, Tour de California) which Floyd rode, he
>won all three. He's clearly showing superb form, and most of the other
>guys who did well in warm-up races are not here, or like Levi
>Leipheimer, have had a semaine sans.

That's twice you've mentioned Paris-Nice, Ryan, but the last P-N winner who also
won a TdF was Mig Indurain in 1991. The two races just don't compare.
The Dauphine would be a better guide.
I still say Landis has never done anything to indicate he could win a 3-week tour.

[Simon Brooke]

in message . com>,
') wrote:

> Simon Brooke wrote:
>> Ryan Cousineau ') wrote:
>>
>> > Kloden is, I agree, underrated. Landis has to be a--if not
>> > THE--favourite. Is Gonchar more than a TT specialist?
>>
>> What you mean is, Landis is the only US contender left. To which I
>> have to say to you: time moves on. You do not have to have a US
>> passport to win the Tour de France.
>
> Enough with attributing opinions you don't like only to US homerism.
> Also, Ryan is Canadian.

Errrmmm... humble apologies, Ryan. I am deeply conscious of the offence I
will have caused by my careless and prejudiced reference above. If it's
any comfort to you, my father was born near Estevan, in Saskatchewan. I
abase myself and grovellingly beg your forgiveness.

What I meant to say was, of course, 'what you mean is, Landis is the only
North American contender left'.

--
(Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

;; Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they
;; do it from Â*religiousÂ*conviction." Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*--Â*Pascal

[Donald Munro]

Simon Brooke wrote:
> Errrmmm... humble apologies, Ryan. I am deeply conscious of the offence I
> will have caused by my careless and prejudiced reference above. If it's
> any comfort to you, my father was born near Estevan, in Saskatchewan. I
> abase myself and grovellingly beg your forgiveness.

Just buy him a gin or two or three and he'll be happy again.

[Bob Martin]

in 512880 20060710 103555 Ryan Cousineau > wrote:

>I wouldn't put stock in any specific prep race: each rider has their
>favourite, and note that the number of TdF winners between Indurain and
>now is four: Riis, Ullrich, Pantani (RIP), and (qty. 7) Armstrong.
>That's a small sample size.

Yes, but I was coming at it from the other direction. Of the riders who have
won P-N in the last 15 years the only one who looked as if he might be a serious
Tour contender was Tony Rominger.

>Gonchar: can he hang on to the leaders in the mountains?
>Landis: will he last 3 weeks?
>Menchov & Savoldelli: which is harder: the Giro or the Vuelta?
>Kloden: Is he still as good as you was 2 years ago?
>Cadel Evans: are you going break through this year?
>
>Please pick your favourite and expose his weakness,

Yes, I agree with your summary. But I think that Gonchar with that yellow
jersey on his back will be the man to beat (remember Thomas Voekler in 2004).
And he has another long ITT on the penultimate day to pull back another minute.
Other than that I really don't see a favourite. It will all come down to who has
the fewest bad days.

[Ryan Cousineau]

In article >,
Simon Brooke > wrote:

> in message . com>,
> ') wrote:
>
> > Simon Brooke wrote:
> >> Ryan Cousineau ') wrote:
> >>
> >> > Kloden is, I agree, underrated. Landis has to be a--if not
> >> > THE--favourite. Is Gonchar more than a TT specialist?
> >>
> >> What you mean is, Landis is the only US contender left. To which I
> >> have to say to you: time moves on. You do not have to have a US
> >> passport to win the Tour de France.
> >
> > Enough with attributing opinions you don't like only to US homerism.
> > Also, Ryan is Canadian.
>
> Errrmmm... humble apologies, Ryan. I am deeply conscious of the offence I
> will have caused by my careless and prejudiced reference above. If it's
> any comfort to you, my father was born near Estevan, in Saskatchewan. I
> abase myself and grovellingly beg your forgiveness.

Think nothing of it. I am not one of those Canadians who feels it
necessary to define myself by not being American, as so many of my
fellow citizens tediously do.

> What I meant to say was, of course, 'what you mean is, Landis is the only
> North American contender left'.

I am, however, enough of a fanboy that I pay pretty close attention to
the fortunes of CSC, since they ride (Canadian-made) Cervelo bicycles.

As close as Canada gets to having a team in the Tour,

--
Ryan Cousineau http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

[Ryan Cousineau]

In article >,
Bob Martin > wrote:

> in 512880 20060710 103555 Ryan Cousineau > wrote:
>
> >I wouldn't put stock in any specific prep race: each rider has their
> >favourite, and note that the number of TdF winners between Indurain and
> >now is four: Riis, Ullrich, Pantani (RIP), and (qty. 7) Armstrong.
> >That's a small sample size.
>
> Yes, but I was coming at it from the other direction. Of the riders who have
> won P-N in the last 15 years the only one who looked as if he might be a
> serious
> Tour contender was Tony Rominger.
>
> >Gonchar: can he hang on to the leaders in the mountains?
> >Landis: will he last 3 weeks?
> >Menchov & Savoldelli: which is harder: the Giro or the Vuelta?
> >Kloden: Is he still as good as you was 2 years ago?
> >Cadel Evans: are you going break through this year?
> >
> >Please pick your favourite and expose his weakness,
>
> Yes, I agree with your summary. But I think that Gonchar with that yellow
> jersey on his back will be the man to beat (remember Thomas Voekler in 2004).
> And he has another long ITT on the penultimate day to pull back another
> minute.
> Other than that I really don't see a favourite. It will all come down to who
> has
> the fewest bad days.

What I remember about Voeckler was the part where he lost a few minutes
per day in every mountain stage. I see where you're going with the
Yellow Jersey Effect, though. It is true that if Gonchar can prove
worthy, all of a sudden Kloden and the rest of T-Mobile will be working
for him.

--
Ryan Cousineau http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

[Donald Munro]

Ryan Cousineau wrote:
> As close as Canada gets to having a team in the Tour,

Ryder Hesjedal did pretty well at the Dauphine - maybe he'll get his
chance.

[Simon Brooke]

in message >, Ryan
Cousineau ') wrote:

>> What I meant to say was, of course, 'what you mean is, Landis is the
>> only North American contender left'.
>
> I am, however, enough of a fanboy that I pay pretty close attention to
> the fortunes of CSC, since they ride (Canadian-made) Cervelo bicycles.

Yup. Although you have to look pretty hard at the Cervelo website to find
this out. It's be nice if they stuck a maple leaf on there, or
something.

And I'll admit to being a CSC fan, too:
http://www.jasmine.org.uk/dogfood/story/article_50.html

--
(Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
;; First they came for the asylum seekers,
;; and I did not speak out because I was not an asylum seeker.
;; Then they came for the gypsies,
;; and I did not speak out because I was not a gypsy...
;; Pastor Martin Niemöller, translated by Michael Howard.

[Ryan Cousineau]

In article >,
Simon Brooke > wrote:

> in message >, Ryan
> Cousineau ') wrote:
>
> >> What I meant to say was, of course, 'what you mean is, Landis is the
> >> only North American contender left'.
> >
> > I am, however, enough of a fanboy that I pay pretty close attention to
> > the fortunes of CSC, since they ride (Canadian-made) Cervelo bicycles.
>
> Yup. Although you have to look pretty hard at the Cervelo website to find
> this out. It's be nice if they stuck a maple leaf on there, or
> something.

Don't need it: they don't aspire to be the best bike company in Canada,
they aspire to make the best bikes on the planet. Have a pretty solid
reputation among tri-geeks already, from what I hear.

> And I'll admit to being a CSC fan, too:
> http://www.jasmine.org.uk/dogfood/story/article_50.html

Hey, I think I found the team kit that your other kitten is wearing:

http://www.evilcycling.com/images/ragbrai05/pages/02Smith-R2-057-27.htm

--
Ryan Cousineau http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

[Simon Brooke]

in message >, Ryan
Cousineau ') wrote:

> In article >,
> Simon Brooke > wrote:
>
>> And I'll admit to being a CSC fan, too:
>> http://www.jasmine.org.uk/dogfood/story/article_50.html
>
> Hey, I think I found the team kit that your other kitten is wearing:
>
> http://www.evilcycling.com/images/ragbrai05/pages/02Smith-R2-057-27.htm

Thanks! Entirely appropriate!

--
(Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
Ye hypocrites! are these your pranks? To murder men and give God thanks?
Desist, for shame! Proceed no further: God won't accept your thanks for
murther
-- Robert Burns, 'Thanksgiving For a National Victory'

[Michael Press]

In article
>,
Ryan Cousineau > wrote:

> Hey, I think I found the team kit that your other kitten is wearing:
>
> http://www.evilcycling.com/images/ragbrai05/pages/02Smith-R2-057-27.htm

I like the one at camera right with his zip undone.

--
Michael Press