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David N. Welton
July 21st 03, 02:37 PM
Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way
back. Looks to be a good one today!

--
David N. Welton
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Gerrit Stolte
July 21st 03, 02:40 PM
On Mon, 21 Jul 2003 13:37:20 GMT, (David N. Welton)
wrote:

>
>Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way
>back. Looks to be a good one today!


One for the ages.

Robert Oliver
July 21st 03, 02:44 PM
"David N. Welton" > wrote in message
...
>
> Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way
> back. Looks to be a good one today!

Armstrong and Mayo are back with Ullrich.

David N. Welton
July 21st 03, 03:01 PM
Keith > writes:

> On Mon, 21 Jul 2003 13:37:20 GMT, (David N. Welton)
> wrote:


> >Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his
> >way back. Looks to be a good one today!

> He didn't really attack he just climbs up at his pace...

Were you watching the bicycle race?

"His pace" was that of the lead group, and then rapidly got a lot
faster.

In any case... Vinokorouv (sp?) is in trouble. About a minute and a
half going over the top of the Tourmalet.

--
David N. Welton
Consulting: http://www.dedasys.com/
Personal: http://www.dedasys.com/davidw/
Free Software: http://www.dedasys.com/freesoftware/
Apache Tcl: http://tcl.apache.org/

zeno
July 21st 03, 05:53 PM
David N. Welton wrote:
> Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way
> back. Looks to be a good one today!
>

IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just
about all the work yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the
Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better desender than Jan. Say
Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance could have got
all that back on the long decent.

When they got to the steep part going up to Luz, where Lance has a
natural advantage anyway over Jan, Jan could not fend off his attack
because Jan had spent more on the Tourmalet and on the previous day.
Lance was only getting stronger.

If Jan had simply marked Lance on the Tourmalet or just pushed the pace
to wear lance down, he would not have spent so much E by the time they
got to the Luz climb. He could have handled Lance's attack on the steep
better and possibly caught or even passed him when the mountain eased
off towards the top. Worst case, if they were even at the finish, Jan
would still be only 15 seconds down going into the final time trial.
Now it's over a minute and Lance has the psychological momentum.

Bad tactics.

Zeno

Tom Schulenburg
July 21st 03, 06:12 PM
"zeno" > wrote in message
...
> David N. Welton wrote:
> > Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way
> > back. Looks to be a good one today!
> >
>
> IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just
> about all the work yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the
> Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better desender than Jan. Say
> Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance could have got
> all that back on the long decent.
>
> When they got to the steep part going up to Luz, where Lance has a
> natural advantage anyway over Jan, Jan could not fend off his attack
> because Jan had spent more on the Tourmalet and on the previous day.
> Lance was only getting stronger.
>
> If Jan had simply marked Lance on the Tourmalet or just pushed the pace
> to wear lance down, he would not have spent so much E by the time they
> got to the Luz climb. He could have handled Lance's attack on the steep
> better and possibly caught or even passed him when the mountain eased
> off towards the top. Worst case, if they were even at the finish, Jan
> would still be only 15 seconds down going into the final time trial.
> Now it's over a minute and Lance has the psychological momentum.
>
> Bad tactics.
>
> Zeno
>

It's no secret that Lance has been struggling. The idea is to get him to
crack and gain big time. Even if Lance catches up on the decent, Ullrich
attacks again until Lance can't respond. Why would Jan give Lance an easy
ride up to the last climb where Lance can limit his losses?

-T

zeno
July 21st 03, 06:57 PM
Tom Schulenburg wrote:
> "zeno" > wrote in message
> ...
>
>> David N. Welton wrote:
>>
>>> Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his
>>> way back. Looks to be a good one today!
>>>
>>
>> IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did
>> just about all the work yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on
>> the Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better desender than
>> Jan. Say Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance
>> could have got all that back on the long decent.
>>
>> When they got to the steep part going up to Luz, where Lance has a
>> natural advantage anyway over Jan, Jan could not fend off his
>> attack because Jan had spent more on the Tourmalet and on the
>> previous day. Lance was only getting stronger.
>>
>> If Jan had simply marked Lance on the Tourmalet or just pushed the
>> pace to wear lance down, he would not have spent so much E by the
>> time they got to the Luz climb. He could have handled Lance's
>> attack on the steep better and possibly caught or even passed him
>> when the mountain eased off towards the top. Worst case, if they
>> were even at the finish, Jan would still be only 15 seconds down
>> going into the final time trial. Now it's over a minute and Lance
>> has the psychological momentum.
>>
>> Bad tactics.
>>
>> Zeno
>>
>
>
> It's no secret that Lance has been struggling. The idea is to get him
> to crack and gain big time. Even if Lance catches up on the decent,
> Ullrich attacks again until Lance can't respond. Why would Jan give
> Lance an easy ride up to the last climb where Lance can limit his
> losses?
>
> -T

I didn't say he should give Lance an easy ride -- I said he should still
"push the pace." What you say assumes that Jan has limitless energy for
attacks and leading the first group -- he doesn't. By all accounts he
was sick earlier in the race and is still (according to him) not all the
way back from his long lay off. Up until Lances attack today, Jan had
done much more work over the last two days.

Your scenario also assumes Lance was continuing to deteriorate. There
was a fair amount of evidence to opposite the contrary the previous day
that proved out today. The place to hit him hard was on the last climb
today. Jan blew it.

zeno

warren
July 21st 03, 11:19 PM
In article >, zeno
> wrote:

> David N. Welton wrote:
> > Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way
> > back. Looks to be a good one today!
> >
>
> IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just
> about all the work yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the
> Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better desender than Jan. Say
> Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance could have got
> all that back on the long decent.

By opening the gap Armstrong was forced into the wind. He was also
being tested. Ullrich may have felt that the pace was too slow and that
Armstrong might jump him.

-WG

Dieter Buerssner
July 21st 03, 11:51 PM
zeno wrote:

> IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just
> about all the work yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the
> Tourmalet -- pointlessly.

I tend to agree. With the results known, it is of course easier to judge.
Yesterday, I think Lance played poker (he had a good hand with Beltran).
So, there was probably not much, JU could do.

Perhaps the hate between Godefroot and Pevenage played also some role.
After all, Telekom should also be interested to not let Beltran gain many
minutes. But only Euskatel and Bianchi worked.

Today, it seemed a bit clearer. When JU had Lance and Mayo at his wheel
again, and seeing that the distance to the rest did not grow that fast, it
was very probable, that many riders would come back in the decent. Perhaps,
he had other reasons. Perhaps, he did not feel too well? He might have
remembered, that Lance only attacked in the last climb in his tour wins.
Perhaps, he thought, he could hurt Lance a bit, by accelerating in the
second last climb.

About those Vino-Jan coalation thoughts, that were mentioned. What we have
seen, was the opposite. They were fighting vs. each other.

Dieter

zeno
July 22nd 03, 12:17 AM
warren wrote:
> In article >, zeno
> > wrote:
>
>
>>David N. Welton wrote:
>>
>>>Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way
>>>back. Looks to be a good one today!
>>>
>>
>>IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just
>>about all the work yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the
>>Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better desender than Jan. Say
>>Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance could have got
>>all that back on the long decent.
>
>
> By opening the gap Armstrong was forced into the wind. He was also
> being tested. Ullrich may have felt that the pace was too slow and that
> Armstrong might jump him.
>
> -WG

Yeah, but Jan was expending a lot more energy to do that than Lance
(look at the video) and came away with nothing to show for it.

It is hard to see an upside for Jan with this tactic. He used a lot more
energy jumping on the Tourmalet than Lance would need to use on the
other side to catch him. Because Lance knew that, he could afford to
ride within himself on the way up, let Jan suffer trying to break him,
then reel him in slowly, or even let him gain some time by the summit.

Lance knew he could take it all back on the descent without expending
much E to do it. (It takes a lot more E to gain 30 seconds on a climb
than it does to take it back going down hill.) So, IMO, the chances of
Jan gaining anything in terms of either time on Lance or causing him to
blow up chasing were slim in this situation. Instead, Jan used more
energy, gained nothing, and suffered on the way up to Luz because Lance
was fresher and getting his legs back.

Zeno

lazysegall
July 22nd 03, 12:41 AM
Tom Schulenburg wrote:
> "zeno" > wrote in message news:3F1C1AA4.5000005@c-
> ...
> > David N. Welton wrote:
> > > Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way
> > > back. Looks to be a good one today!
> > >
> >
> > IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just
> > about all the work yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the
> > Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better desender than Jan.
> > Say Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance could
> > have got all that back on the long decent.
> >
> > When they got to the steep part going up to Luz, where Lance has a
> > natural advantage anyway over Jan, Jan could not fend off his attack
> > because Jan had spent more on the Tourmalet and on the previous day.
> > Lance was only getting stronger.
> >
> > If Jan had simply marked Lance on the Tourmalet or just pushed the
> > pace to wear lance down, he would not have spent so much E by the time
> > they got to the Luz climb. He could have handled Lance's attack on the
> > steep better and possibly caught or even passed him when the mountain
> > eased off towards the top. Worst case, if they were even at the
> > finish, Jan would still be only 15 seconds down going into the final
> > time trial. Now it's over a minute and Lance has the
> > psychological momentum.
> >
> > Bad tactics.
> >
> > Zeno
> >
> It's no secret that Lance has been struggling. The idea is to get him to
> crack and gain big time. Even if Lance catches up on the decent, Ullrich
> attacks again until Lance can't respond. Why would Jan give Lance an
> easy ride up to the last climb where Lance can limit his losses?
> -T

'

Setting a huge pace by one of Urlichs teamates might have made sense. It
also might have made sense for Urlich to attack and then slow... An
attack by a rider like Vino who needs a lot of time might have made
sense as well. Lance could easily make up 30-40 seconds on the downhill.
So Urlich needed more than that and he was never getting it. The attack
that Jan made was one that would have been more natural for Lance to
make. If i were Jan I would have been happy with 15-30 seconds deficit
going into the itt.



--
>--------------------------<
Posted via cyclingforums.com
http://www.cyclingforums.com

Daniel Connelly
July 22nd 03, 12:48 AM
zeno wrote:
> Yeah, but Jan was expending a lot more energy to do that than Lance
> (look at the video) and came away with nothing to show for it.
>

It's not about energy -- that is mostly Mgh. It's more about what
fraction of the energy is anaerobic, which has a high metabolic
cost. Accelerations take one above lactate threshold, which
takes its toll.

Nick Burns
July 22nd 03, 01:30 AM
"lazysegall" > wrote in message
...
> Tom Schulenburg wrote:
> > "zeno" > wrote in message
news:3F1C1AA4.5000005@c-
> > ...
> > > David N. Welton wrote:
> > > > Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his
way
> > > > back. Looks to be a good one today!
> > > >
> > >
> > > IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did
just
> > > about all the work yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the
> > > Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better desender than Jan.
> > > Say Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance could
> > > have got all that back on the long decent.
> > >
> > > When they got to the steep part going up to Luz, where Lance has a
> > > natural advantage anyway over Jan, Jan could not fend off his attack
> > > because Jan had spent more on the Tourmalet and on the previous day.
> > > Lance was only getting stronger.
> > >
> > > If Jan had simply marked Lance on the Tourmalet or just pushed the
> > > pace to wear lance down, he would not have spent so much E by the
time
> > > they got to the Luz climb. He could have handled Lance's attack on
the
> > > steep better and possibly caught or even passed him when the
mountain
> > > eased off towards the top. Worst case, if they were even at the
> > > finish, Jan would still be only 15 seconds down going into the final
> > > time trial. Now it's over a minute and Lance has the
> > > psychological momentum.
> > >
> > > Bad tactics.
> > >
> > > Zeno
> > >
> > It's no secret that Lance has been struggling. The idea is to get him
to
> > crack and gain big time. Even if Lance catches up on the decent,
Ullrich
> > attacks again until Lance can't respond. Why would Jan give Lance an
> > easy ride up to the last climb where Lance can limit his losses?
> > -T
>
> '
>
> Setting a huge pace by one of Urlichs teamates might have made sense. It
> also might have made sense for Urlich to attack and then slow... An
> attack by a rider like Vino who needs a lot of time might have made
> sense as well. Lance could easily make up 30-40 seconds on the downhill.
> So Urlich needed more than that and he was never getting it. The attack
> that Jan made was one that would have been more natural for Lance to
> make. If i were Jan I would have been happy with 15-30 seconds deficit
> going into the itt.

Yes, Botero should have been there with U l l rich.

>
>
>
> --
> >--------------------------<
> Posted via cyclingforums.com
> http://www.cyclingforums.com

Raptor
July 22nd 03, 04:04 AM
zeno wrote:
> Lance knew he could take it all back on the descent without expending
> much E to do it. (It takes a lot more E to gain 30 seconds on a climb
> than it does to take it back going down hill.) So, IMO, the chances of
> Jan gaining anything in terms of either time on Lance or causing him to
> blow up chasing were slim in this situation. Instead, Jan used more
> energy, gained nothing, and suffered on the way up to Luz because Lance
> was fresher and getting his legs back.
>
> Zeno

It makes sense - somewhat - if you assume that Jan guessed that LANCE
was still suffering. If LANCE wasn't so far on the rebound, Jan might
have gained a separation he could use. Not very likely, but certainly
possible.

--
--
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warren
July 22nd 03, 06:29 AM
In article >, Raptor > wrote:

> zeno wrote:
> > Lance knew he could take it all back on the descent without expending
> > much E to do it. (It takes a lot more E to gain 30 seconds on a climb
> > than it does to take it back going down hill.) So, IMO, the chances of
> > Jan gaining anything in terms of either time on Lance or causing him to
> > blow up chasing were slim in this situation. Instead, Jan used more
> > energy, gained nothing, and suffered on the way up to Luz because Lance
> > was fresher and getting his legs back.
> >
> > Zeno
>
> It makes sense - somewhat - if you assume that Jan guessed that LANCE
> was still suffering. If LANCE wasn't so far on the rebound, Jan might
> have gained a separation he could use. Not very likely, but certainly
> possible.

That's what I thought and what I meant by, he was testing Lance. It's
not hard for Ullrich to get the little gap he got and then he's not
working any harder than Lance when Lance is slowly catching him.

Haven't y'all ever heard of exploratory attacks? Happens all the time
near the beginning of races. Do a little attack and see how people
respond to get an indication how they might respond later during your
real attack. It's also a means to see how you are feeling on the day or
at that moment.

-WG

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