Rolf Mantel writes:

Am 10.07.2020 um 18:16 schrieb Radey Shouman:
John B. writes:

On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK
wrote:

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote:

The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of
the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost
entirely by politics.

I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact
that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who
can get Covid.

But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the
virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-)

New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351...

Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on. It seems that
^^^^^^^^^^^^
I think this is a synonym for "I hope that".

You can think that. It might even be true.

something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic
transmission.

In the European hotspots, they found a significantly higher proportion
infected (numbers from memory):

Ischgl 42%
Gangelt 30%
Madrid 20%
London 15%

We have good evidence that social distancing in combination with
track-and-trace stops epidemic transmission (e.g. in Germany, three
weeks after the Tönnies meat factory outbreak with 1,600 infected, the
transmission rate in the relevant disctrics is back to "uncritical");
lockdown is only needed when the number of unrelated local incidents
is too high for a sucessful track-and-trace.

Is track and trace working effectively in Germany? I think the chances
of it working in the US are near zero. Public trust in such schemes is
just not there.

Due to the extreme "super-spreader" nature of the epidemic, there is
no indication whether 5% infected or 50% infected would be necessary
to stop the epidemic without track-and-trace and without social
distancing (to be honest, this kind of experiment is too risky and
expensive for us Europeans, we're happy that USA and Brasil are
sufficiently suicidal to try this out for us).

So the US and Brasil are suicidal but Spain and the UK were not?