On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

In today's news:
https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/
Which could happen, But it won't.

I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order
polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and
trends. Yep, exponents are fun.

I suspect we could do better determining if bicycles will triumph over
automobiles by tossing a coin. Some random considerations:

1. Car pools are probably going to be very unpopular due to the
difficulty maintaining 2 meter distancing. After Covid-19, it will
probably be one person per car, no passengers, no buses, no trains, no
van pools, etc. Taxis and Uber might survive if a partition were
installed between the driver and passenger, but sanitizing the
passenger area will be difficult.

2. Bicycles are currently functional because of the lack of
automobile traffic. If the traffic returns when the lock down ends,
bicycles will again be considered a risky proposition become less
attractive for commuting. This might be balanced by a dramatic
reduction in the number of workers that need to commute. Difficult to
tell a this point. If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most
of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting
more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis.

3. An increase in bicycle usage requires better end point facilities
and infrastructure, such as storage lockers, traffic management,
dedicated lanes, signage, etc. I don't see that happening as all the
aforementioned are controversial.

4. The world has gotten a taste of working at home. At least the
"knowledge workers" have had the experience. From what little I've
seen, working via Teamviewr, AnyDesk, GoToMyPC, etc remote desktop
applications and meeting via Zoom, Webex, Skype, BlueJeans, etc will
probably reduce the need to commute.

5. Lots of other factors might sway bicycle commuting in either
direction. From my warped perspective, the key is the unemployment
levels and the loaded overhead cost of having employees. Unemployment
rates have been seriously distorted by various government for
political reasons. Loaded overhead per employee is going to skyrocket
because of the added costs of providing a safe workplace and the
inevitable rise in medical and insurance expenses. The temptation
will be to outsource as much as possible and transfer the problem and
expense elsewhere.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.

"Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
See the bottom of the page for how the mortality rate is calculated.
Feel free to adjust the assumptions, guesses, and standards based upon
your level of optimism, political views, creative arithmetic, and
level of trust in the sources involved.


--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558