On 6/21/2018 10:08 AM, jbeattie wrote:
On Wednesday, June 20, 2018 at 9:13:45 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On Wednesday, June 20, 2018 at 2:48:08 PM UTC-4, jbeattie wrote:
On Wednesday, June 20, 2018 at 6:56:08 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
My "more careful" still includes 40 mph downhills, riding in groups,
drafting, riding in city and suburban traffic, and a bit of riding in
the woods, on gravel, etc.

But for me, it includes lots and lots of "what if" anticipation and
attention to the road surface. What if there's gravel around that
downhill bend? What if that motorist tries to push into the roundabout
while I'm in the circle? What if that puddle is really a deep pothole?
What if the meeting goes late and I have to ride home in the dark? What
if that squirrely rider suddenly weaves into my path? What if that mud
across the bike trail is really slippery?

Except for those who ride blindfolded, most of us DO plan ahead.

It's not a binary thing, Jay. There are degrees of planning and levels of skill.
Some do it better than others. I think one way to tell who does it better is to
count crashes - ideally, crashes per mile.

Yes, we might make allowances for riding conditions. Perhaps a crash in a
criterium or road race shouldn't count against a person nearly as much. And
perhaps if a person is 100% committed to riding in any weather, they should
get a bonus. But I've known more than one person who gave up riding because
they crashed too much. That tells me there is very likely a bell curve at
work here. I try to be at the good end of that curve.

Does it equate to slowing down? Only sometimes. Most often it means being
observant, knowing how to prepare and be ready in case something comes up.
Preparing and being ready may be things like changing lane position (usually
further left) and covering the brakes. It means pedaling continuously when
approaching a motorist who may pull out, so he doesn't expect me to stop for
him. It means looking way ahead to plan the best path through all the
potholes, not just the one in front. It means downshifting before a stop so
I'm in a good starting gear, and knowing how to start quickly when needed.
And so on.

I'm not saying you're not a good rider. But I think it's likely that one's
crash history is determined by the balance between the risks one takes and
one's skill level. I think some people take more risks than their skill level
justifies. (Hell, I've seen that for sure.)

Above all, if a person has a good riding record, I wouldn't put it off to luck,
any more than I'd say LeBron James is just lucky at shooting baskets.


Oh god, now you're LeBron James. And yes, you are saying that I and everyone else who has crashed more than you is not as good a rider as you. That is the clear and pompous message.

No, that is NOT the message. The message is that I do a good job of
balancing the risks I take with the skills I have.

One way I do that is by passing up the chance to take some risks. I
described the time I skipped the "big air" mountain bike adventure that
broke one guy's collar bone. I can tell about taking a safer path
through a long field of potholes that caused one club rider to crash. I
can talk about slowing way down for curves with gravel, or in general
avoiding Jobst-like cornering angles even on dry pavement.

There are things I'm still good at on a bike, probably better than most
riders. One example seems to be jumping the bike. But while that's saved
me from at least one crash, I don't think it's a major thing. I think my
biggest skill is anticipating potential hazards and taking rather
ordinary measures to reduce those risks.

Again, when I slid out on road salt and scratched my knee, I figured I
screwed up. I'd figure the same thing if I slipped on a rainy road. I
certainly wouldn't say "Gee, there was nothing I could have done."


--
- Frank Krygowski