Robert Chung wrote:
Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
Robert Chung wrote:
Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
Then those two get tested again. They both test positive *again*.

The odds of that happening are 250^4

You're assuming independence.

Dumbass -

Let's say that it's not, that one false positive test will always
yield
a second positive on the B sample. Then the odds are one in 499
that it
TH's roomate will also test positive.

That 1 in 499 chance goes way, way up, however, when one considers
that
*no one else* had a "false positive".

You're still assuming independence. This is exactly why the entire
chain
of events has to be vetted. That was not done.

And, anticipating your question, I remind you of this:

http://groups-beta.google.com/group/...c35a0e1644d31c



Dumbass -

How would Hamilton's test be dependent upon Perez's test?

thanks,

K. Gringioni.