On Fri, 09 May 2014 21:06:42 -0700, Frank Krygowski wrote:

Some infrastructure fans have bragged about the fact that "It's
happening!" -
that is, that the big investments in bike lanes, cycle tracks, bike
boxes and such have created a surge in bike commuting.

I'm all in favor of bike commuting and utility cycling. But I've long
been aware that the supposed surge has been comparatively minor.

This headline seems to confirm that. "Bicycle Commuting Rates Rocket
From 0.5 Percent to 0.6 Percent in Only 32 Years."

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/05/08/
bicycle_commuting_still_not_that_popular.html

- Frank Krygowski

Nobody has made "big investments" in bicycle infrastructure. A single
automobile interchange costs more than all the bicycle infrastructure
costs in the entire country. They have made very modest but highly
visible bicycle infrastructure investments.

They have not made them uniformly throughout the country. Therefore, one
would not expect to see a nationwide increase that is commensurate with
infrastructure increases in a few selected (mostly urban) areas.

If you wish to establish a relation between infrastructure and bike use,
you need to concentrate on those areas that have seen new infrastructure.
You need to track a couple of years after infrastructure installation.
You also need to track not just commuter trips but all trips. This last
point means you need to take counts for the entire day, not just when you
think peak rider ship takes place.

NYC has seen dramatic increases in infrastructure. They have been taking
cordon counts for decades. They have also included bicycle counts in this
study for about 20 years.

The results show a much greater increase than the nationwide statistics
show. The cordon count growth rate from 2002 to 2010 shows a compounded
annual growth rate of 18%. The counts also show that normal rush hour
commuter flow accounts for only 33% of the daily total.

These counts are not limited to the CBD. The George Washington Bridge is
6 miles removed from the edge of the CBD. Its weekday totals have shown
similar 15% annual growth rate. Its weekend totals have shown a more
modest 5% annual growth rate. However, its weekend totals are more than
double its weekday totals.

Bike Share is the wild card. It's been popular despite its financial
problems and limited scope. It's confined to he CBD for all intensive
purposes. Therefore, it will not have much impact in the cordon counts.
Its trips are monitored. Its daily average on most decent weather days is
80% to 100% of the daily cordon count. That daily count represents about
40% of the maximum motor vehicle accumulation within the CBD.

Practically no Bike Share trips would be characterized as the major
commutation mode. Its impact would not be counted in the census journey
to work survey. Bike Share is popular, because infrastructure to support
it was in place. Its popularity has created a synergy that is expanding
the infrastructure.

Its visibility is generating more bike use in areas beyond its limited
area. Local officials who wanted to rid NYC of "lycra clad" cyclists are
now clamoring for more bicycle infrastructure and especially for Bike
Share in their district.

Stephen Bauman