On 5/10/2014 8:40 AM, David Scheidt wrote:
Frank Krygowski wrote:
:Some infrastructure fans have bragged about the fact that "It's happening!" -
:that is, that the big investments in bike lanes, cycle tracks, bike boxes and
:such have created a surge in bike commuting.

:I'm all in favor of bike commuting and utility cycling. But I've long been
:aware that the supposed surge has been comparatively minor.

Yeah, the rate of commuting nearly tripled in Chicago from 2000 to 20012.
Totally trivial change. It more than trippled in Portland. It almost
doubled in LA, more than doubled in Philly. It doubled (to over 4
percent) in Minneapolis.

I sugest reading the study (or better, the numbers) and not relying on
bad websites for summaries.


I've read quite a lot about this issue. Sometimes a headline provides a
useful summary even if the bulk of the information is elsewhere.

Yes, I'm aware of cities that have tripled their bike commuting, and yet
experienced change that was trivial. This happens when the initial bike
mode share was something like 0.1%, and it rises to something like 0.3%.
That apparent difference might be generated as much by the vagaries of
random sampling as by any real increase. And although it would be
certainly trumpeted by agencies promoting cycling, even if it were a
real increase, it would generate negligible benefits regarding things
like pollution output, traffic congestion, energy use and the like.

When examining data on such problems and solutions, the complete picture
requires not just relative numbers, but absolute numbers in context.

Again, I'm solidly in favor of more bike use. But I'm also in favor of
realism.

--
- Frank Krygowski