View Single Post
  #97  
Old December 17th 14, 06:40 AM posted to rec.bicycles.misc
Frank Krygowski[_4_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,538
Default AG: on controlling the lane

On 12/16/2014 8:32 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:
On Tue, 16 Dec 2014 18:32:37 +0000, Phil W Lee
wrote:

You are worrying about something that happens so rarely that it barely
even has any place in the statistics.
The risk of getting wiped out by someone trying to squeeze past in an
inadequate space is certainly many times greater.
Which is why it is recommended practice in every reputable cycle
training course I know of.


No, that isn't really true. Both John Forester and Kenneth Cross
discussed it in their writings and strangely they draw different
conclusions with one arguing that the overtaking risk is negligible,
and on the other hand an analysis that characterizes the overtaking
collision as the most deadly of all car-bike crashes.


Note that the two "on the other hand" statements do not really conflict.
It's not much different than airliner crashes: Yes, they're very
deadly; but yes, the risk is still negligible.

As I've posted many times, American bicyclists probably ride ten million
to fifteen million miles per fatality. (Estimates vary, even estimates
by the same researcher, even those whose entire academic career is
focused on these issues.) That risk of fatality is, by any rational
evaluation, negligible.

It's true that if a cyclist is going to be killed by a car, being hit
from behind is a more common mechanism than many others - although it's
far from being the only one. But nobody has demonstrated that being hit
from behind is more likely when one rides conspicuously at lane center
of a narrow lane. We know that hit-from-behind fatalities occur even in
bike lanes. And while there's not definitive proof, there's lots of
evidence that "primary position" riding reduces that tiny risk.

Meanwhile, there's plenty of evidence that hits-from-behind are a small
percentage of all car-bike crashes. The latest one I came across is
from the city of Cambridge, MA. There, hits-from-behind were 4% of
car-bike crashes. See
http://www.cambridgema.gov/CDD/Trans...formation.aspx

That’s:
Angle (90 degree, usually) 32%
Dooring 20%
Left Hook 19%
Sideswipe (squeeze by!) 12%
Right hook 10%
Rear end 4%
Head on 1%
Unknown 2%

If cyclists didn't ride in gutters where they were less visible, and
where they tempt motorists to squeeze by, I think that 4% figure would
be even lower.


--
- Frank Krygowski
Ads
 

Home - Home - Home - Home - Home