On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:18:08 PM UTC-7, Mark J. wrote:
On 3/28/2020 10:09 AM, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/28/2020 11:01 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name
calling by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick
political jabs, defensive changes of subjet, and "I know
better than anyone" allusions. Things get obscured.

So I'd like to get a direct answer, especially from Tom and
from Andrew.

Tom: Do you really think COVID-19 is no worse than an
ordinary seasonal flu?

Andrew: Do you really think COVID-19 is no worse than an
ordinary seasonal flu?

Of course, this is a discussion group. Others are very
welcome to give their opinion too.

BTW, our bike club now has its first member in intensive
care on a ventilator. I consider him a really good friend,
one of the guys who (almost) always came on my night rides.
He's much younger than me and has been a hell of a rider, a
daily commuter, fast and high mileage.


Up to here, yes. Death is not trivial to the fatality himself, but the
numbers haven't supported panic so far.

I will change my opinion when/if the numbers change [...]

Sadly, give it a week or two. Cases are roughly quadrupling each week
in the US [based on CDC reports]. Exponential growth doesn't catch the
public eye when the absolute numbers are low, but those low numbers
don't last long.

We are solidly on track to eclipse the "regular-flu" numbers.

Mark J.

Plus, the whole idea with these Draconian measures is to limit the damage. If we don't have the damage, that means the measures were successful and not that the measures were unnecessary -- unless there is data indicating that the whole thing is a hoax or that the expected infection/mortality rates without treatment were miscalculated. What we need is a clinical trial. No masks, social distancing, closed business, extra ventilators, etc.,for some big city. Party on! Then lock-down another big city and fill it with medical equipment and hand sanitizer and then check the mortality rates in six months. Control for temperature and region. Obvious choice would be Huston and Dallas or maybe Minneapolis and St. Paul. Nobody could switch cities.

I'm very pleased to have bought a bag of rice today at the local Safeway. It was the last one on the shelf -- a lone bag of Thai jasmine rice. No plain old rice. Lots of produce and other good stuff. The horders are really into rice, beans and toilet paper -- which makes a great high-fiber casserole. Tons of people were out walking around. We had this little pedestrian traffic jam on one of our neighborhood walks with everyone trying to sort-out how to maintain social distancing.

-- Jay Beattie.