On Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 1:19:13 AM UTC-8, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 22.01.2020 um 03:10 schrieb Radey Shouman:
I take your point, and believe that we really cannot afford even our
current rate of incarceration. The cost of repeatedly broken windows,
however, goes beyond just replacing windows. It makes it hard for
people to enjoy their lives in a feeling of security, prompts them to
spend on anti-crime measures, and makes them less likely to ride their
bicycles in streets that seem dangerous.

The effectiveness of incarceration as a crime deterrant has never been
shown. Some of the factors a
- difference between premediated and spontaneous crime
- social status changes due to being incarcerated
- subjective chance of being caught
- expectation for getting a fair trial

As in the US, mostly minority populations are incarcerated and minority
populations subjectively do not expect to get a fair trial, the social
status change due to being incarcerated is minimal.

On the other extreme, for whie sex offenders, the social status change
due to being incarcerated is massive (the real punishment starts after
the offender has been released from jail) but the subjective change of
being caught is extremely low and the crime mostly starts spontaneous.

They have discovered that IF you can catch criminals as they begin their careers and while in prison offer them training is an actual avocation that they have almost null repeat offenders. What we know is this: In Germany they have approximately the same crime rate ratios as in the US. The US has 10 times the prison population as Germany but neither case seems to change the crime repeat rates of criminals.