The Real Lance Effect

Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:

"MagillaGorilla" wrote in message
...
Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:

"MagillaGorilla" wrote in message
...
Lance Again
By Ray Keener
June 7, 2011

Lance's impact on the bike industry is as controversial as his
alleged
drug use. With all the recent chatter and analysis, let's correct
some
of the revisionist history being spun.

I read recently another Lance defender talking about the huge
positive
impact Lance's Tour successes have had on the industry.

The facts are simple: Between 1999 and 2009, call it The Lance
Decade,
unit sales, dollar sales and participation in the U.S. bicycle
market
all declined.

Unit sales: Sales of adult bicycles declined from 11.6 million
units
in
1999 to 10.2 million in 2009.

Participation: Declined from 42.4 million to 39.3 million in the
same
period.

Overall industry sales, much harder to track, are generally agreed
to
be
flat, which means down when adjusted for inflation.

reference: http://www.bicycleretailer.com/post-296/lance-again

Below is my response, posted on Ray's blog as well as our website
(where
you can follow a couple of links to data)
http://chainreactionblogs.com/sport/?p=166 -

Ray: You're a reasonable guy and I generally agree with most things
you
write. But in this case it appears that you decided first that Lance
was bad (or at best neutral) for the industry and then searched for
facts to support that belief.

For example the choice of using 2009 for *any* forward-looking
comparison is suspect. 2009 was a disaster for our industry but not
because of Lance or doping scandals. It was a disaster for the world
economy. Maybe Boulder got by unscathed but Silicon Valley sure
didn't.
And if instead of 2009 you use either 2008 or 2010 you get a very
different story. How different? About 20% different!

Participation figures are more discouraging, showing a downward trend
in
raw numbers of "participants" but these figures as well are suspect
at
least as far as our part of the industry is concerned. The majority
of
"participants" are not cyclists; anyone who has simply ridden around
the
block is considered a "participant." If we were to measure miles
ridden
and participation in Centuries Gran Fondos and the various benenfit
rides would the story be the same? I don't think so.

Further you ignore the wane & wan of the typical product cycle and
its
impact on your numbers. The mountain bike had peaked and was on a
decline and I don't think many feel Lance had much to do with the
fortunes & misfortunes of that part of the market. For what it's
worth
my take on Lance's value and sales in our stores are that it was
significant for the first three years and after that was a benefit
spread pretty wide among road bikes in general rather than
specifically
Trek.

There comes a point of saturation; the message to "Buy a Trek because
that's what Lance rides" is susceptible to so many people and then
they've bought their bikes and you get a backlash effect of
"everyone's
got a Trek I want something different." Other brands found ways to
capitalize on this including different value propositions (lower
pricing
for a given set of components and tell people "Our bike is just as
good
maybe better and costs less because you're not paying for Lance!").
We
felt both of those so please before anyone assumes that a non-Trek
dealer couldn't survive because they didn't have Lance think again.
The
manufacturers and IBDs are smarter than that.

But it's obvious that Trek has received great benefit from their
association with Lance and it's equally obvious that Trek is aware
that
Lance is not enough. Trek has put much of their profit back into
advocacy and works entirely unrelated to Lance that should have a
greater effect long-term on getting those "once around the block"
folk
to view their bike as a serious utilitarian vehicle.
To sum up Trek did not mortgage their future through supporting Lance
and it's entirely possible that without Lance during the 2000-2005
period (industry-wide) sales could have been substantially lower than
they were.

Thanks Mike Jacoubowsky Partner Chain Reaction Bicycles (Redwood City
&
Los Altos California... not the mail-order place in the UK)

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

So if you use 2008, which was a good year, then the numbers show the
opposite, huh? Okay, so riddle me this Joker. Lance was retired in
2008
and 2007, yet sales went up. How can that be due to the so-called
Lance
Effect?

So you're trying to make my point? That the "Lance effect" was/is
over-stated?

Second, if sales go up in 2011 and 2012 and Lance is retired, then
explain
that in the context that Lance was retired and his effect is
essentially
ZERO, if not negative due to his pending doping case.

Finally, when Lance goes to prison, and bike sales go up, will you
attribute that to the Lance Effect too?

When that happens, I think I'll let BL explain it to us. I don't think
we're smart enough to understand.

My point is there is no Lance Effect. Maybe for Trek there was, but
outside of that, fuggettuhbouttit.

On that I disagree. I think the bike biz was heading into a downward
spiral, and the resurgence of the road bike was what kept a good chunk
of the industry afloat. The constant coverage of anything-Lance in
Sports Illustrated and elsewhere got cycling a lot of exposure and made
road bikes sexy. Companies like Giant, Specialized & Bianchi all likely
saw their road bike sales surge in popularity. Trek definitely saw
bigger increases, but it was road bikes in general that derived the most
benefit, regardless of who made them (with some exception at the high
end, where the desire to ride the exact same frame as Lance definitely
helped certain models).

Magilla

P.S. Do you think Trek liked the title of Lance's most successful
book:
"It's Not About the Bike"

Publicly, Trek never took issue with the title of that book, and
privately, I could never get anyone to say anything beyond "That's just
Lance." Me? I thought it was childish, arrogant, and terribly
inconsiderate of one of the three companies that helped Lance get back
on the bike. But I was told, more than once, that I was trying to make
something big out of nothing. Whatever was said behind closed doors I
was not privvy to. My access is primarily with engineers and product
people, not those who cut sponsorship deals.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

Behind the scenes, Trek was fuming at that book title, but they are just as
much of a pussy as everyone else when it comes to confronting Big Tex.
Same with Nike and Radio Shack who are now re-assessing their relationship
with Lance, despite their adamant public denials. When Lance is in federal
prison and USADA has to conduct its doping case against him through a
telephone conference from behind prison walls, and Aspen Bully loses
several of his Tour wins, then you might stand the chance of getting a
semi-truthful quote from one those sponsor sycophant hangers-on.

Just think of the new marketing angles....

"Club Fed" glasses by Oakley
"Steel Bars" model by Trek made out of NOS Reynolds 753
"Bighouse Lycra" by Nike (available in county lock-up zebra stripes or
casual solid federal penitentiary "Lance" classic color)

BL may very well end up being the resident Messiah of rbr and he will get
his own plaque and ****.


Magilla

Behind the scenes, Trek was fuming at that book title, but they are
just as
much of a pussy as everyone else when it comes to confronting Big Tex.
Same with Nike and Radio Shack who are now re-assessing their
relationship
with Lance, despite their adamant public denials. When Lance is in
federal
prison and USADA has to conduct its doping case against him through a
telephone conference from behind prison walls, and Aspen Bully loses
several of his Tour wins, then you might stand the chance of getting a
semi-truthful quote from one those sponsor sycophant hangers-on.

Just think of the new marketing angles....

"Club Fed" glasses by Oakley
"Steel Bars" model by Trek made out of NOS Reynolds 753
"Bighouse Lycra" by Nike (available in county lock-up zebra stripes or
casual solid federal penitentiary "Lance" classic color)

BL may very well end up being the resident Messiah of rbr and he will
get
his own plaque and ****.


Magilla

Dang, you almost got it right. "Steel Bars" sounds so Oakley it's
incredible. Surprised they don't already have one with that name. I'd
trademark it quickly.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:

Behind the scenes, Trek was fuming at that book title, but they are
just as
much of a pussy as everyone else when it comes to confronting Big Tex.
Same with Nike and Radio Shack who are now re-assessing their
relationship
with Lance, despite their adamant public denials. When Lance is in
federal
prison and USADA has to conduct its doping case against him through a
telephone conference from behind prison walls, and Aspen Bully loses
several of his Tour wins, then you might stand the chance of getting a
semi-truthful quote from one those sponsor sycophant hangers-on.

Just think of the new marketing angles....

"Club Fed" glasses by Oakley
"Steel Bars" model by Trek made out of NOS Reynolds 753
"Bighouse Lycra" by Nike (available in county lock-up zebra stripes or
casual solid federal penitentiary "Lance" classic color)

BL may very well end up being the resident Messiah of rbr and he will
get
his own plaque and ****.


Magilla

Dang, you almost got it right. "Steel Bars" sounds so Oakley it's
incredible. Surprised they don't already have one with that name. I'd
trademark it quickly.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

I'd love to be a fly on the wall at Oakley. ...listening to how the CEO and
the rest of the executive staff of Doper Lover Boys plan to handle the
pending indictment of their boy.

Magilla

On Jun 28, 11:13*am, Fred Flintstein
wrote:
On 6/28/2011 10:15 AM, MagillaGorilla wrote:



F

You need to wipe your ass Bob

http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-204_162-...?tag=page;next

On Jun 28, 8:15*am, MagillaGorilla wrote:
Lance Again
By Ray Keener
June 7, 2011
*
Lance’s impact on the bike industry is as controversial as his alleged
drug use. With all the recent chatter and analysis, let’s correct some
of the revisionist history being spun.

I read recently another Lance defender talking about the huge positive
impact Lance’s Tour successes have had on the industry.

The facts are simple: Between 1999 and 2009, call it The Lance Decade,
unit sales, dollar sales and participation in the U.S. bicycle market
all declined.

Unit sales: Sales of adult bicycles declined from 11.6 million units in
1999 to 10.2 million in 2009.

Participation: Declined from 42.4 million to 39.3 million in the same
period.

Overall industry sales, much harder to track, are generally agreed to be
flat, which means down when adjusted for inflation.

reference:http://www.bicycleretailer.com/post-296/lance-again

What about participation in USA Cycling sanctioned events?

IMO, the '70's were more of a period of increased interest in cycling
in the US than the subsequent decades.

On 6/29/2011 1:00 PM, MagillaGorilla wrote:

BL may very well end up being the resident Messiah of rbr and he will get
his own plaque and ****.

If he becomes a "Messiah", he'll ascend to heaven and we'll never hear
from him again. That's how that seems to work. If there's anything I can
do to help bring this about, let me know.

On Jun 28, 10:15*am, MagillaGorilla wrote:
Lance Again
By Ray Keener
June 7, 2011
*
Lance’s impact on the bike industry is as controversial as his alleged
drug use. With all the recent chatter and analysis, let’s correct some
of the revisionist history being spun.

I read recently another Lance defender talking about the huge positive
impact Lance’s Tour successes have had on the industry.

The facts are simple: Between 1999 and 2009, call it The Lance Decade,
unit sales, dollar sales and participation in the U.S. bicycle market
all declined.

Unit sales: Sales of adult bicycles declined from 11.6 million units in
1999 to 10.2 million in 2009.

Participation: Declined from 42.4 million to 39.3 million in the same
period.

Overall industry sales, much harder to track, are generally agreed to be
flat, which means down when adjusted for inflation.

reference:http://www.bicycleretailer.com/post-296/lance-again

To say that Lance Did NOT have any positive affect on Cycling is sort
of like saying Babe Ruth Did Not have any affect on baseball

On Jun 28, 5:06*pm, Ronko wrote:
In article ,
says...









Lance Again
By Ray Keener
June 7, 2011
*
Lance’s impact on the bike industry is as controversial as his alleged
drug use. With all the recent chatter and analysis, let’s correct some
of the revisionist history being spun.

I read recently another Lance defender talking about the huge
positive
impact Lance’s Tour successes have had on the industry.

The facts are simple: Between 1999 and 2009, call it The Lance
Decade,
unit sales, dollar sales and participation in the U.S. bicycle market
all declined.

Unit sales: Sales of adult bicycles declined from 11.6 million units in
1999 to 10.2 million in 2009.

Participation: Declined from 42.4 million to 39.3 million in the same
period.

Overall industry sales, much harder to track, are generally agreed to
be
flat, which means down when adjusted for inflation.

reference:http://www.bicycleretailer.com/post-296/lance-again

Bike shops around Oakland, CA are showing slower sales and laying off
people over the last year or two. That is a result of the overall
economy. If you think October 2008 was an anomoly, be advised none
of the fundamental financial and economic issues have been resolved.
Bicycle slaes, and many other retail items, have declined because of
the macro-economic climate. Companies are profitable because they're
sucking more work out of less employees.

Overall I think Lance brought bicycles more into the public
consciousness, a good thing. He certainly did a lot of Trek and his own
financial well-being.

A buddy of mine has had a modest sized (2500 sq ft) shop for 20 years
in a region of the country with year round riding weather. He had a
record year last year and the first four months of this year have been
his best ever for each of those months.

He did say that the middle of the market has bottomed out; virtually
all of his sales are either high end or basic bikes.

"MagillaGorilla" wrote in message
...


Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:

Behind the scenes, Trek was fuming at that book title, but they are
just as
much of a pussy as everyone else when it comes to confronting Big
Tex.
Same with Nike and Radio Shack who are now re-assessing their
relationship
with Lance, despite their adamant public denials. When Lance is in
federal
prison and USADA has to conduct its doping case against him through
a
telephone conference from behind prison walls, and Aspen Bully
loses
several of his Tour wins, then you might stand the chance of
getting a
semi-truthful quote from one those sponsor sycophant hangers-on.

Just think of the new marketing angles....

"Club Fed" glasses by Oakley
"Steel Bars" model by Trek made out of NOS Reynolds 753
"Bighouse Lycra" by Nike (available in county lock-up zebra stripes
or
casual solid federal penitentiary "Lance" classic color)

BL may very well end up being the resident Messiah of rbr and he
will
get
his own plaque and ****.


Magilla

Dang, you almost got it right. "Steel Bars" sounds so Oakley it's
incredible. Surprised they don't already have one with that name. I'd
trademark it quickly.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

I'd love to be a fly on the wall at Oakley. ...listening to how the
CEO and
the rest of the executive staff of Doper Lover Boys plan to handle the
pending indictment of their boy.

Magilla

It's impressive and almost inspirational to see such high morals we
attribute to American businesses. I'm almost teary-eyed over the high
regard you have for the business community. Deeply touching. The images
of American board rooms where high-minded people are aghast at someone
representing their company getting caught for spitting on the sidewalk.

Do you think Oakley really cares? Do you think Oakley customers are
turned off by the idea that one of their endorsed athletes might have
doped and kept the game running years longer than anyone would think
possible? My guess is that the typical Oakley customer either doesn't
care of thinks cool, I did white gangsta.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

Lance has only had a positive impact on bike sales at least for Trek.
If Lance's reputation negatively impacted sales then Trek be directly
affected by it first. But if indeed Lance had such a negative impact
on bike sales we would have seen it this year.


I think the industry has been focusing too much on the high end racing
bikes. Sure these $2000 bikes are cool to own and ride, but there is
a limited number of consumers who can afford to buy one. The other
problem is that there has not been enough product development other
price ranges. It is actually harder to develop a low to midrange bikes
that performs well and the consumer wants. But when marketing and all
the other factors come together a company can sell a lot of bikes.
Back in the 80's the Dave Scott Ironman sold like crazy.



On Jun 28, 8:15*am, MagillaGorilla wrote:
Lance Again
By Ray Keener
June 7, 2011
Lance s impact on the bike industry is as controversial as his alleged
drug use. With all the recent chatter and analysis, let s correct some
of the revisionist history being spun.

I read recently another Lance defender talking about the huge positive
impact Lance s Tour successes have had on the industry.

The facts are simple: Between 1999 and 2009, call it The Lance Decade,
unit sales, dollar sales and participation in the U.S. bicycle market
all declined.

Unit sales: Sales of adult bicycles declined from 11.6 million units in
1999 to 10.2 million in 2009.

Participation: Declined from 42.4 million to 39.3 million in the same
period.

Overall industry sales, much harder to track, are generally agreed to be
flat, which means down when adjusted for inflation.

reference:http://www.bicycleretailer.com/post-296/lance-again