Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike

On 7/9/2020 2:45 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 7/9/2020 12:58 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/8/2020 9:47 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 7/8/2020 7:48 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 08 Jul 2020 13:10:47 -0500, AMuzi
wrote:

On 7/8/2020 11:16 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/8/2020 2:05 AM, Ralph Barone wrote:
Radey Shouman wrote:


But not much more, and less per capita, than died in the
pandemics of 1957
and 1968.


But note that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 had one
important difference.
They’re over, while the US is still working through
their first wave of the
current pandemic. Implying that things aren’t that bad
now compared to 1957
or 1968 is akin to publishing the death toll from an
airplane crash before
the plane hits the ground.

That reminds me of a comment I read about the early
re-openings in several states, like Florida and Georgia:

"The parachute has slowed our rate of fall, so it's OK to
cut it loose."



Translation, "We're lounging around home at full pay, just
like we used to slough off at the State offices, so we
really don't give a damn whether you're working, whether
your children eat, whether your mortgage is paid, or not."


As I have said a number of times it is easy to criticize
and difficult
to provide solutions.

So, tell us, what is the solution?

I might say that Thailand which evoked Emergency
Regulation early on
and introduced what I'm sure you would consider draconian
control
measures hasn't had a home grown case of the virus in
more then 40
days while the U.S. is reporting new cases in nearly
double the
numbers of previous months.
--
Cheers,

John B.


Variations abound.
Japan didn't order businesses closed.

Sweden didn't either, and now has infection & death stats
way worse than its neighbors, and an economy that's barely
better than theirs.



Right but there's no correlation across policies/results.

Japan didn't and fared well, Sweden didn't and suffered.

Belgium was about average in punitive policy but worst for outcome.

It has often been remarked that Japan has a pro-mask culture; when I
visited Kyoto, it was common then - when there was no disease outbreak
in the news - to see some folk on the street wearing masks. I
understand that NOW masks are ubiquitous in Japan. It's not much to go
on, but the current pictures of public places in Sweden don't include a
lot of masks. Dunno about Belgium.

Mark J.

On 7/9/2020 7:11 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/9/2020 5:33 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 7/9/2020 12:45 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/8/2020 8:23 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
AMuzi writes:

On 7/8/2020 5:39 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes:

On 7/8/2020 9:45 AM, Radey Shouman wrote:
  When the current pandemic is over there will be a
variety of
estimates
of the death toll as well. That someone died is
certain, that he would
have lived absent the pandemic not at all.

I think the best estimate of fatalities will come from
comparing total
deaths for the COVID era vs. (say) the five year
average of similar
months in previous years.

The UK total death rate showed a substantial increase at
the start of
the pandemic, it has been down to normal levels for
weeks now. I'm not
sure about US total death rates.

As always, some judgment will be needed, because
people's behavioral
changes can have secondary effects. Thank goodness,
that will give us
something to debate about.

There has been a lot of collateral damage, for example
people missing
chemotherapy or other needed medical treatment. Some of
them have died
when they would have lived with treatment. More will
die, some possibly
years in the future because they missed vaccinations
during the covid
pandemic.


You're right.

On the other side, clinics, surgery centers, hospitals
and notably
huge hospital systems are financially stressed for lack
of revenue.
Until people start buying new knees and bariatric
procedures and such,
the system won't be able to function.

I know that my local hospitals laid off a fairly large
fraction of their
staff as a result of the pandemic. I'm fairly sure most
are still out
of work.

Well, that's the free market at work.



Very little of the medical racket is a free market by any
definition.

I was thinking "There's no current market for your work. So
you're free to go."



You underestimate public funds, kickbacks, regulatory
overhead, regulatory capture, unions and government
contracting generally.

The 'invisible hand' falls silent before them.

p.s. There's no "Certificate of Need' for another bicycle
shop just around the corner.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Thu, 09 Jul 2020 09:26:10 +0700, John B.
wrote:

:-) I can't help from smiling about the "old Age Home" as one of the
thinks that most Asians find so reprehensible about the U.S. is the
shipping of old relatives off to "old Age Homes". In Thailand they
have a great deal of difficulty that anyone could be so crass and
inhumane as to do such a thing.

It's fairly new in the U.S. In the sixties, my mother (an R.N.)
worked in a sanitarium (euphemism for expensive nuthouse), and she
said that many of the patients needed only the sort of supervision
given in a nursing home, but one just didn't ship one's mother off to
a nursing home.

All patients were quite wealthy, of course.

--
Joy Beeson
joy beeson at comcast dot net
http://wlweather.net/PAGEJOY/

On Fri, 10 Jul 2020 00:09:06 -0400, Joy Beeson
wrote:

On Thu, 09 Jul 2020 09:26:10 +0700, John B.
wrote:

:-) I can't help from smiling about the "old Age Home" as one of the
thinks that most Asians find so reprehensible about the U.S. is the
shipping of old relatives off to "old Age Homes". In Thailand they
have a great deal of difficulty that anyone could be so crass and
inhumane as to do such a thing.

It's fairly new in the U.S. In the sixties, my mother (an R.N.)
worked in a sanitarium (euphemism for expensive nuthouse), and she
said that many of the patients needed only the sort of supervision
given in a nursing home, but one just didn't ship one's mother off to
a nursing home.

All patients were quite wealthy, of course.

I'm only telling you what your reputation is :-) I've been asked quite
a number of times in various SEA countries if it is true that in
"America" people send their parents to an old age home when they get
old?

I have no idea there that comes from but it does seem prevalent in at
least three of the SEA countries.
--
Cheers,

John B.

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes:

On Wed, 8 Jul 2020 06:05:11 +0000 (UTC), Ralph Barone
wrote:

Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes:

On Tue, 7 Jul 2020 13:09:37 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 3:12:13 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 7/3/2020 3:53 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/3/2020 3:10 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 8:47:36 AM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote:
AMuzi wrote:
https://710wor.iheart.com/content/20...rage-incident/


Detroit needs a mayor who will campaign donating Chinese
safety flasher toys
to anyone in sight.

With any luck some jerks will take the lesson to heart.

Like, "Don't go into a Detroit traffic argument armed
with a knife!"

Exactly, the driver should have been pack'n. It should
have been some Quentin Tarantino-esqe shootout.

This definitely proves the superiority of handlebar
baskets. Just keep your Glock in there with your posies
and donettes.

Well, there's a tradeoff between a handlebar basket and a
handlebar bag. With the basket, the gun's easily visible but
it bounces around. Sometimes it slides under the donettes,
slowing your draw time.

The handlebar bag can have a special holster pocket. But
then there are tradeoffs between an inside pocket over an
outside pocket. Inside for concealed carry, but you lose a
second flipping the bag open. Outside for open carry, but
some people get touchy about that.

Being a good-old-boy American bicyclist can be complicated!
That's why most of them drive pickups.


Cyclists's pistols were a very common accessory at one time.
It's not an overly complex problem. Upscale model at 12
shillings:

https://onlinebicyclemuseum.co.uk/wp...ist-pistol.jpg

N.B. Tom in Oakland, tagline: "I fear no tramp."

more, many with folding trigger for pocket carry:
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bicycle+pi...ages&ia=images

That said, urban environments present almost infinite
possibilities for trouble and for liability.
--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

While someone like Frank might hurry his own death along by trying to
walk the streets of Oakland I have people offering help whenever
they believe they can be of some.

Last Wednesday I was talking to a rich man, like most rich a large
part was inherited. His Grandmother had a farm in the bay area not
long after the civil war when food was big business. And also like
most rich he spreads it around as much as possible. He is a surgeon
and works for Doctors without Borders. He works mostly in Africa and
he talked about how much healthier African Children are than
Americans because their immune systems are under constant
challenge. Perhaps this is the reason that I have such good
health. Traipsing through the salt marshes when I was a kid. I
suppose a large part of these marshes were formed as part of the
run-off from the cities which could not have been very healthy.

We discussed the idea that a cloth mask could possibly even slow down
a molecule like a virus and we both got a good laugh out of that (I
suppose that he definitely would not fall under Frank's category of
"medical expert" I have the distinct impression that what Frank
thinks of as an expert is anyone that sits on their ass and reads an
occasional study. Frank appears to be unaware that most studies are
absolute garbage but then I suppose that is what he taught in
college. Poor students. Though they probably learned the art of
engineering by practice and not by his meanderings.

Virtually everything that has been visited upon this country by the
Democrats has been a virtual curse. While walking through those salt
marshes I was accompanied by an American kid of Japanese
extraction. He grew up in Roosevelt's concentration camps. These
were formed in large part so that Roosevelt who was one of the most
racist people that ever lived could allow his friends to seize the
property of the Japanese/Americans who were rather prosperous up to
that time.

Exactly what do you suppose goes through the head of a man who has a
large guaranteed income when he would tell the working man that he
cannot work and cannot provide for his family and must do insane
things like wear a mask in public unless he is robbing a bank?
Social distancing is much like wearing a mask - an infected person
has a cloud of virus molecules surrounding his head and contrary to
the highly educated Dr. Fauci's thoughts, these thing do not fall to
the ground like a brick dropped off a building. They float pretty
much in place in a stream along which you are walking. That means
that someone could pass through that very slowly dispersing cloud
minutes after you have passed and be exposed.

The entire Democrat Party has retained some small remnants of power
though the constant threats and fear. Awful environmental impact
that is barely measurable, man-made climate change that doesn't
exist and now a virus that is virtually harmless.

No doubt you are correct and the figures prove it. The U.S. is leading
the world!

In the larger countries, with a population of 200 million or more, the
U.S. is head and shoulders above the rest with 3,085,705 cases of the
virus, some 3 times the next highest country; 133,808 deaths, double
the numbers of the next closest country;404 deaths per million - y'all
are slipping a bit here, only about 30% higher and 9,321/million
cases, again slipping back to only about 1-1/4 times the next highest
country.

Just think, 50% more deaths due to the Virus than all of the U.S.'s
military deaths in the past 70 years, from the Korean war to the
present.

But not much more, and less per capita, than died in the pandemics of 1957
and 1968.


But note that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 had one important difference.
They’re over, while the US is still working through their first wave of the
current pandemic. Implying that things aren’t that bad now compared to 1957
or 1968 is akin to publishing the death toll from an airplane crash before
the plane hits the ground.

Too true, in fact from the numbers I see the daily new case rate is
higher then at any time previous. On 7 Jul it seems to have been
55,442 new cases. Nope, I was wrong, the highest number of new cases
seems to have been on 3 Jul with 58,910 new cases.

The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of
the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost
entirely by politics.

I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact
that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who can get Covid.

Andy

On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK
wrote:

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes:

On Wed, 8 Jul 2020 06:05:11 +0000 (UTC), Ralph Barone
wrote:

Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes:

On Tue, 7 Jul 2020 13:09:37 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 3:12:13 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 7/3/2020 3:53 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/3/2020 3:10 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 8:47:36 AM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote:
AMuzi wrote:
https://710wor.iheart.com/content/20...rage-incident/


Detroit needs a mayor who will campaign donating Chinese
safety flasher toys
to anyone in sight.

With any luck some jerks will take the lesson to heart.

Like, "Don't go into a Detroit traffic argument armed
with a knife!"

Exactly, the driver should have been pack'n. It should
have been some Quentin Tarantino-esqe shootout.

This definitely proves the superiority of handlebar
baskets. Just keep your Glock in there with your posies
and donettes.

Well, there's a tradeoff between a handlebar basket and a
handlebar bag. With the basket, the gun's easily visible but
it bounces around. Sometimes it slides under the donettes,
slowing your draw time.

The handlebar bag can have a special holster pocket. But
then there are tradeoffs between an inside pocket over an
outside pocket. Inside for concealed carry, but you lose a
second flipping the bag open. Outside for open carry, but
some people get touchy about that.

Being a good-old-boy American bicyclist can be complicated!
That's why most of them drive pickups.


Cyclists's pistols were a very common accessory at one time.
It's not an overly complex problem. Upscale model at 12
shillings:

https://onlinebicyclemuseum.co.uk/wp...ist-pistol.jpg

N.B. Tom in Oakland, tagline: "I fear no tramp."

more, many with folding trigger for pocket carry:
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bicycle+pi...ages&ia=images

That said, urban environments present almost infinite
possibilities for trouble and for liability.
--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

While someone like Frank might hurry his own death along by trying to
walk the streets of Oakland I have people offering help whenever
they believe they can be of some.

Last Wednesday I was talking to a rich man, like most rich a large
part was inherited. His Grandmother had a farm in the bay area not
long after the civil war when food was big business. And also like
most rich he spreads it around as much as possible. He is a surgeon
and works for Doctors without Borders. He works mostly in Africa and
he talked about how much healthier African Children are than
Americans because their immune systems are under constant
challenge. Perhaps this is the reason that I have such good
health. Traipsing through the salt marshes when I was a kid. I
suppose a large part of these marshes were formed as part of the
run-off from the cities which could not have been very healthy.

We discussed the idea that a cloth mask could possibly even slow down
a molecule like a virus and we both got a good laugh out of that (I
suppose that he definitely would not fall under Frank's category of
"medical expert" I have the distinct impression that what Frank
thinks of as an expert is anyone that sits on their ass and reads an
occasional study. Frank appears to be unaware that most studies are
absolute garbage but then I suppose that is what he taught in
college. Poor students. Though they probably learned the art of
engineering by practice and not by his meanderings.

Virtually everything that has been visited upon this country by the
Democrats has been a virtual curse. While walking through those salt
marshes I was accompanied by an American kid of Japanese
extraction. He grew up in Roosevelt's concentration camps. These
were formed in large part so that Roosevelt who was one of the most
racist people that ever lived could allow his friends to seize the
property of the Japanese/Americans who were rather prosperous up to
that time.

Exactly what do you suppose goes through the head of a man who has a
large guaranteed income when he would tell the working man that he
cannot work and cannot provide for his family and must do insane
things like wear a mask in public unless he is robbing a bank?
Social distancing is much like wearing a mask - an infected person
has a cloud of virus molecules surrounding his head and contrary to
the highly educated Dr. Fauci's thoughts, these thing do not fall to
the ground like a brick dropped off a building. They float pretty
much in place in a stream along which you are walking. That means
that someone could pass through that very slowly dispersing cloud
minutes after you have passed and be exposed.

The entire Democrat Party has retained some small remnants of power
though the constant threats and fear. Awful environmental impact
that is barely measurable, man-made climate change that doesn't
exist and now a virus that is virtually harmless.

No doubt you are correct and the figures prove it. The U.S. is leading
the world!

In the larger countries, with a population of 200 million or more, the
U.S. is head and shoulders above the rest with 3,085,705 cases of the
virus, some 3 times the next highest country; 133,808 deaths, double
the numbers of the next closest country;404 deaths per million - y'all
are slipping a bit here, only about 30% higher and 9,321/million
cases, again slipping back to only about 1-1/4 times the next highest
country.

Just think, 50% more deaths due to the Virus than all of the U.S.'s
military deaths in the past 70 years, from the Korean war to the
present.

But not much more, and less per capita, than died in the pandemics of 1957
and 1968.


But note that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 had one important difference.
They’re over, while the US is still working through their first wave of the
current pandemic. Implying that things aren’t that bad now compared to 1957
or 1968 is akin to publishing the death toll from an airplane crash before
the plane hits the ground.

Too true, in fact from the numbers I see the daily new case rate is
higher then at any time previous. On 7 Jul it seems to have been
55,442 new cases. Nope, I was wrong, the highest number of new cases
seems to have been on 3 Jul with 58,910 new cases.

The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of
the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost
entirely by politics.

I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact
that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who can get Covid.

Andy

But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the
virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-)

New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351...

--
Cheers,

John B.

On 7/9/2020 11:43 PM, AK wrote:

snip

I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact
that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who can get Covid.

What is odd is that Dear Leader's lack of action is endangering the very
people most likely to vote for him in November.

Several of the swing states have had very high increases. Trump is
essentially killing off his base of older, uneducated, white voters.

This is a very bad strategy. Biden currently has significant leads in
all six swing states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania Florida,
Arizona, North Carolina), as more educated, wealthier, moderate
Republicans abandon the party.

We may be looking at a popular vote win for Biden on the scale of
Franklin Roosevelt's 1936 win, or Lyndon Johnson's 1964 blowout, but the
popular vote is not of much concern, Trump lost the popular vote in 2016
but it didn't matter. It's those swing states, several of which have a
lot of older, white voters, that really matter.

John B. writes:

On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK
wrote:

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes:

On Wed, 8 Jul 2020 06:05:11 +0000 (UTC), Ralph Barone
wrote:

Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes:

On Tue, 7 Jul 2020 13:09:37 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 3:12:13 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 7/3/2020 3:53 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/3/2020 3:10 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 8:47:36 AM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote:
AMuzi wrote:
https://710wor.iheart.com/content/20...rage-incident/


Detroit needs a mayor who will campaign donating Chinese
safety flasher toys
to anyone in sight.

With any luck some jerks will take the lesson to heart.

Like, "Don't go into a Detroit traffic argument armed
with a knife!"

Exactly, the driver should have been pack'n. It should
have been some Quentin Tarantino-esqe shootout.

This definitely proves the superiority of handlebar
baskets. Just keep your Glock in there with your posies
and donettes.

Well, there's a tradeoff between a handlebar basket and a
handlebar bag. With the basket, the gun's easily visible but
it bounces around. Sometimes it slides under the donettes,
slowing your draw time.

The handlebar bag can have a special holster pocket. But
then there are tradeoffs between an inside pocket over an
outside pocket. Inside for concealed carry, but you lose a
second flipping the bag open. Outside for open carry, but
some people get touchy about that.

Being a good-old-boy American bicyclist can be complicated!
That's why most of them drive pickups.


Cyclists's pistols were a very common accessory at one time.
It's not an overly complex problem. Upscale model at 12
shillings:

https://onlinebicyclemuseum.co.uk/wp...ist-pistol.jpg

N.B. Tom in Oakland, tagline: "I fear no tramp."

more, many with folding trigger for pocket carry:
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bicycle+pi...ages&ia=images

That said, urban environments present almost infinite
possibilities for trouble and for liability.
--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

While someone like Frank might hurry his own death along by trying to
walk the streets of Oakland I have people offering help whenever
they believe they can be of some.

Last Wednesday I was talking to a rich man, like most rich a large
part was inherited. His Grandmother had a farm in the bay area not
long after the civil war when food was big business. And also like
most rich he spreads it around as much as possible. He is a surgeon
and works for Doctors without Borders. He works mostly in Africa and
he talked about how much healthier African Children are than
Americans because their immune systems are under constant
challenge. Perhaps this is the reason that I have such good
health. Traipsing through the salt marshes when I was a kid. I
suppose a large part of these marshes were formed as part of the
run-off from the cities which could not have been very healthy.

We discussed the idea that a cloth mask could possibly even slow down
a molecule like a virus and we both got a good laugh out of that (I
suppose that he definitely would not fall under Frank's category of
"medical expert" I have the distinct impression that what Frank
thinks of as an expert is anyone that sits on their ass and reads an
occasional study. Frank appears to be unaware that most studies are
absolute garbage but then I suppose that is what he taught in
college. Poor students. Though they probably learned the art of
engineering by practice and not by his meanderings.

Virtually everything that has been visited upon this country by the
Democrats has been a virtual curse. While walking through those salt
marshes I was accompanied by an American kid of Japanese
extraction. He grew up in Roosevelt's concentration camps. These
were formed in large part so that Roosevelt who was one of the most
racist people that ever lived could allow his friends to seize the
property of the Japanese/Americans who were rather prosperous up to
that time.

Exactly what do you suppose goes through the head of a man who has a
large guaranteed income when he would tell the working man that he
cannot work and cannot provide for his family and must do insane
things like wear a mask in public unless he is robbing a bank?
Social distancing is much like wearing a mask - an infected person
has a cloud of virus molecules surrounding his head and contrary to
the highly educated Dr. Fauci's thoughts, these thing do not fall to
the ground like a brick dropped off a building. They float pretty
much in place in a stream along which you are walking. That means
that someone could pass through that very slowly dispersing cloud
minutes after you have passed and be exposed.

The entire Democrat Party has retained some small remnants of power
though the constant threats and fear. Awful environmental impact
that is barely measurable, man-made climate change that doesn't
exist and now a virus that is virtually harmless.

No doubt you are correct and the figures prove it. The U.S. is leading
the world!

In the larger countries, with a population of 200 million or more, the
U.S. is head and shoulders above the rest with 3,085,705 cases of the
virus, some 3 times the next highest country; 133,808 deaths, double
the numbers of the next closest country;404 deaths per million - y'all
are slipping a bit here, only about 30% higher and 9,321/million
cases, again slipping back to only about 1-1/4 times the next highest
country.

Just think, 50% more deaths due to the Virus than all of the U.S.'s
military deaths in the past 70 years, from the Korean war to the
present.

But not much more, and less per capita, than died in the
pandemics of 1957
and 1968.


But note that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 had one important difference.
They’re over, while the US is still working through their first wave of the
current pandemic. Implying that things aren’t that bad now compared to 1957
or 1968 is akin to publishing the death toll from an airplane crash before
the plane hits the ground.

Too true, in fact from the numbers I see the daily new case rate is
higher then at any time previous. On 7 Jul it seems to have been
55,442 new cases. Nope, I was wrong, the highest number of new cases
seems to have been on 3 Jul with 58,910 new cases.

The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of
the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost
entirely by politics.

I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact
that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who
can get Covid.

Andy

But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the
virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-)

New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351...

Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on. It seems that
something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic
transmission. That's not to say that no one will get it afterwards, but
that the infection rate will not continue to increase.

Am 10.07.2020 um 18:16 schrieb Radey Shouman:
John B. writes:

On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK
wrote:

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote:

The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of
the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost
entirely by politics.

I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact
that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who
can get Covid.

But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the
virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-)

New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351...

Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on. It seems that
^^^^^^^^^^^^
I think this is a synonym for "I hope that".

something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic
transmission.

In the European hotspots, they found a significantly higher proportion
infected (numbers from memory):

Ischgl 42%
Gangelt 30%
Madrid 20%
London 15%

We have good evidence that social distancing in combination with
track-and-trace stops epidemic transmission (e.g. in Germany, three
weeks after the Tönnies meat factory outbreak with 1,600 infected, the
transmission rate in the relevant disctrics is back to "uncritical");
lockdown is only needed when the number of unrelated local incidents is
too high for a sucessful track-and-trace.

Due to the extreme "super-spreader" nature of the epidemic, there is no
indication whether 5% infected or 50% infected would be necessary to
stop the epidemic without track-and-trace and without social distancing
(to be honest, this kind of experiment is too risky and expensive for us
Europeans, we're happy that USA and Brasil are sufficiently suicidal to
try this out for us).

On 7/10/2020 1:05 PM, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 10.07.2020 um 18:16 schrieb Radey Shouman:
John B. writes:

On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK
wrote:

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote:

The death rate, however, continues to decrease.Â* Popular coverage of
the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost
entirely by politics.

I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact
that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who
can get Covid.

But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the
virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-)

New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351...

Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on.Â* It seems that
Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* ^^^^^^^^^^^^
I think this is a synonym for "I hope that".

something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic
transmission.

In the European hotspots, they found a significantly higher proportion
infected (numbers from memory):

IschglÂ* 42%
Gangelt 30%
MadridÂ* 20%
LondonÂ* 15%

We have good evidence that social distancing in combination with
track-and-trace stops epidemic transmission (e.g. in Germany, three
weeks after the Tönnies meat factory outbreak with 1,600 infected, the
transmission rate in the relevant disctrics is back to "uncritical");
lockdown is only needed when the number of unrelated local incidents is
too high for a sucessful track-and-trace.

Due to the extreme "super-spreader" nature of the epidemic, there is no
indication whether 5% infected or 50% infected would be necessary to
stop the epidemic without track-and-trace and without social distancing
(to be honest, this kind of experiment is too risky and expensive for us
Europeans, we're happy that USA and Brasil are sufficiently suicidal to
try this out for us).

Here in the U.S., a problem with track & trace is the significant number
of people who say "I don't have to tell you where I was."

This culture is independent, "every man for himself" to a fault. There's
relatively little "I'll do this for the good of the community." Which, I
think, is sad.


--
- Frank Krygowski