Fourth year cycle anomalies

On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 8:24:29 AM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 12/1/2020 8:39 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 12/1/2020 4:48 PM, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's a paper which to statisticians, especially those with practical
experience, is a thing of beauty:
https://votepatternanalysis.substack...anomalies-2020
Anomalies in Vote Counts and Their Effects on Election 2020

There are too many anomalies to wish away. They all have the same
objectionable features and outcomes.

Enjoy!

Andre Jute
Mayor Daley is smiling down from Hell on the Donkey Party



I've been trying for 2 weeks to explain those numbers to sympathetic
people whose eyes glaze over. Your average guy is shut out from the
data, the analyses and simple graphs generally.
These issues have been examined by many courts, judges, lawyers and
other professionals trained and bound by oaths to guarantee honest
elections. Time after time after time, those experts have found no
reason to overturn the election results. Even judges appointed by Trump
have scolded attorneys for their ludicrous Trumpian claims.

But there certainly is evidence of bias! Once again, reality is biased
against the right wing.

Tell us what you know about trials? What do you know about evidentiary proof? I'm sure that Jay could explain it to you.

Am 02.12.2020 um 17:49 schrieb Tom Kunich:
On Tuesday, December 1, 2020 at 2:49:02 PM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:

There are too many anomalies to wish away. They all have the same
objectionable features and outcomes.

This is totally aside from the election results from Arizona - a
state that is MORE than strongly Red. They did not actually look into
what caused such a dramatic shift in votes.

This dramatic shift in the votes was looked into and reported
repeatedly. The major impact in AZ was voter turnout in Navajo Nation
https://www.hcn.org/articles/indigenous-affairs-how-indigenous-voters-swung-the-2020-election
(this article claims similar for Wisconsin).

Navajo Nation was hit extra hard by COVID, spurring indigenous voters to
turn out in significantly higher numbers than usual to do something
about the epidemic.

On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 5:05:09 PM UTC, Sepp Ruf wrote:
Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 02.12.2020 um 14:17 schrieb Andre Jute:

But I'm afraid Rolf's certainties utterly escape me, and I ascribe
them to the fact that he is German (they do elections right in
Germany)
About the prognostic power of German state media:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cw1hgEXXEAAoZNY.jpg

Hah! Par for the course. The BBC, when I was young, was the greatest news organisation in the world. Today it has ****ed that reputation away on commitments to passing fads. It's a long time since I had to consider the quality of the German media (to avoid paying American taxes, I spent part of my time theoretically heading our European operations, and part of that at our office in Cologne where they understood that if they didn't tell NY that I was at the opera, I wouldn't interfere with them, and when I was rarely in the office, I spent my time working up a German version of the Agostini-Jute Constants for eliminating wasteful and expensive duplicated audiences between various advertising media, the sort of thing that even half-asleep my talent was wasted on since it was only an adaptation of what I'd already done elsewhere, but that Rolf could probably get right at his tenth try. I'm not surprised that German media too have ****ed their opportunity up against a wall and are now in the tank for the lowest common denominator consensus; that was clear when they suppressed reports of the epidemic of rapes by Merkels immigrant "children".

But my point about German elections, politely stated but not reciprocated by Rolf (what is the fellow so frightened of?) was actually based on knowing about those small electoral units, where long decent electoral practice is reinforced by net curtain-twitching neighbours who insist on knowing everyone's business, no less a social influence than, say, to put it at its most offensive, block wardens. Germans, I found much to the profit of my clients, are exquisitely conditioned to react to social pressure, which accounts for the prize-winning output in my time of our German offices being so sickeningly socially responsible (I held a seminar for the heads of departments on "Our Social Responsibility" -- and nobody laughed!).

As you are evidently not a statistician or a mathematician, please let
me re-phrase my analysis in simple words.

Come on now, Sepp, you're insulting Rolf, who assured me he has a Ph.D. in paper mache or maybe origami, anyhow some kind of model-building. Balsa wood?

Did you, before pointing fingers like German politicians have done, analyze
the year-on-year sizes of Sweden's senior populations and did you consider
differing European demographics due to certain events in the first half of
the 20th century?
..
Now that is definitely below the belt.
..
Back to cycles, and JFTStatisticalR: My Y2018 cycle shows only normal, post
24-month warranty threshold anomalies: a uselessly overweight adjustable
stem suddenly loose, sharply reminding me that I had never intended to keep
it anyway. To be safe, I will look up the exact time of purchase to avoid
sitting on the bike while components act peculiar on the pi 3.14 year mark.

Did you know that the Golden Mean (Rolf will immediately provide it's mathematical value to a lot of decimal places and the method of arriving at that approximation, so I don't have to look it up, because it is the method that suggested the correlation) acts as a limiting factor in oversquare internal combustion engines (bore bigger than stroke)? Sets you wondering whether they really walked everywhere in that little town below the Parthenon, or whether their automobiles went down with Atlantis.

Andre Jute
Also a satirist
PS Oh damn, I just realised your latter is addressed to Rolf.

On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 4:15:49 PM UTC, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 12/2/2020 9:50 AM, Andre Jute wrote:

Yeah, I got paid in seven figures in private industry...

... and when you designed the communication modules for the
International Space Station, and when you built the equipment that
solved the AIDS crisis, and when you designed the four-bit computer that
did what only supercomputers could previously do...

Oh wait, which troll is this? It's hard to tell them apart.

--
- Frank Krygowski

Never mind, Franki-boy. We understand you're old and your memory and comprehension are slowing down so much that you're tripping over them.

I'll get the imam up the road to pray for your, or if you're a Christian I can ask the head of the Anglican Church over here to pray for you.

BTW, when you cut my message to make your cheap shot, you should have left the words about counting on an abacus so that the other literal-minded clowns could claim I confessed to it. But then again, you're not the smartest potato in the field, are you?

Andre Jute
I just love ivory tower monkeys sneering at risk takers -- they're so easy to put down.

On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 5:46:11 PM UTC, Sir Ridesalot wrote:
On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 12:05:09 p.m. UTC-5, Sepp Ruf wrote:
Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 02.12.2020 um 14:17 schrieb Andre Jute:

But I'm afraid Rolf's certainties utterly escape me, and I ascribe
them to the fact that he is German (they do elections right in
Germany)
About the prognostic power of German state media:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cw1hgEXXEAAoZNY.jpg
As you are evidently not a statistician or a mathematician, please let
me re-phrase my analysis in simple words.
Did you, before pointing fingers like German politicians have done, analyze
the year-on-year sizes of Sweden's senior populations and did you consider
differing European demographics due to certain events in the first half of
the 20th century?


Back to cycles, and JFTStatisticalR: My Y2018 cycle shows only normal, post
24-month warranty threshold anomalies: a uselessly overweight adjustable
stem suddenly loose, sharply reminding me that I had never intended to keep
it anyway. To be safe, I will look up the exact time of purchase to avoid
sitting on the bike while components act peculiar on the pi 3.14 year mark.
I have an adjustable stem on my winter MTB that's converted to dropbar with V-brakes and bar end shifters. A few seconds with a 5mm hex key allows me to either raise or lower the handlebar and then rotate it it, to meet different road/snow/ice conditions I might encounter and when I might wish to change my riding position.

Cheers

Best adjustable stem I ever had was Gazelle's proprietary Switch. It was tool-less. You flipped a lever and both ends of it could be adjusted, the stem as a whole rotated up or down and the handlebars rotated. For a speed trial (behind a truck before the wretched fusspots again claim I'm trolling them) conducted on a Dutch stadssportief -- basically a more expensive Dutch commuter bike saved for holidays -- I turned the stem down as low as it would go, and rotated the North Road handlebars until the handles pointed almost vertically downwards, at which point an adjustment to the saddle height gave me a perfectly flat back for aero advantage. It took about ten seconds and the same again to put the bike back to its sedate Dutchness. The particular bike I'm talking about is he
http://coolmainpress.com/BICYCLINGgazelletoulouse.html
Scroll down for the photos.

Andre Jute
Simplicity, always

On Tuesday, December 1, 2020 at 6:31:28 PM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
On 12/1/2020 4:48 PM, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's a paper which to statisticians, especially those with practical experience, is a thing of beauty:
https://votepatternanalysis.substack...anomalies-2020
Anomalies in Vote Counts and Their Effects on Election 2020

There are too many anomalies to wish away. They all have the same objectionable features and outcomes.

Enjoy!

Andre Jute
Mayor Daley is smiling down from Hell on the Donkey Party

We're blessed to live in an Age of Miracles:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/powell...r_3599859.html

Dominion server assumed bodily into heaven!

Reminds me of Ms Clinton's evidence under supoena being
destroyed by the FBI. Just a small professional courtesy,
nothing to see here, move along now.

If a moderately talented programmer can discover the programming trick used to invert the vote count like that, you have to get rid of the evidence post haste.

On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 8:02:44 AM UTC-8, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 02.12.2020 um 15:50 schrieb Andre Jute:

I was trying explicitly to evaluate the paper you presented in isolation
(which I feel competent to do) not to decide whther there has been
electoral fraud (which I have an opinion but do not see myself as an
expert).
What I'm pointing out for the second time now is that some of the
most egregious irregularities happened between the centre and the
outlying areas under cover of darkness.
"Are alleged to have happened". Some court cases have been opened with
no evidence presented, some court cases have been thrown out by judges
nominated by Trump, as of today no court case accepted any wrongdoing
involving thousands of votes.
I find it very odd that someone with the privilege of experiencing
clean elections anywhere shouldn't wish the same for the Americans.
I truly wish the the Americans to have honest electionr results, and I
most strongly wish for all Americans to accept honest election results
rather than alleging fraud with no reasonable claim for doubt. The
paper quoted by you was not a reasonable claim for doubt.
Rolf, would you mind telling us what business it is of yours what occurred or not in the American election? We now have thousands of affidavits filed that claim personally witnessed fraud and you have absolutely no business making a single comment about that. It is all in the hands of the Justice Department and the courts now.

On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 9:05:09 AM UTC-8, Sepp Ruf wrote:
Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 02.12.2020 um 14:17 schrieb Andre Jute:

But I'm afraid Rolf's certainties utterly escape me, and I ascribe
them to the fact that he is German (they do elections right in
Germany)
About the prognostic power of German state media:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cw1hgEXXEAAoZNY.jpg
As you are evidently not a statistician or a mathematician, please let
me re-phrase my analysis in simple words.
Did you, before pointing fingers like German politicians have done, analyze
the year-on-year sizes of Sweden's senior populations and did you consider
differing European demographics due to certain events in the first half of
the 20th century?


Back to cycles, and JFTStatisticalR: My Y2018 cycle shows only normal, post
24-month warranty threshold anomalies: a uselessly overweight adjustable
stem suddenly loose, sharply reminding me that I had never intended to keep
it anyway. To be safe, I will look up the exact time of purchase to avoid
sitting on the bike while components act peculiar on the pi 3.14 year mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4pIQ8zJ8Jc

On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 9:11:25 AM UTC-8, wrote:
On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 6:24:16 AM UTC-8, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 02.12.2020 um 14:17 schrieb Andre Jute:

But I'm afraid Rolf's certainties utterly escape me, and I ascribe
them to the fact that he is German (they do elections right in
Germany)
As you are evidently not a statistician or a mathematician, please let
me re-phrase my analysis in simple words.

The paper says "if everything were random, there would be small and
large wards, and there would be wards strongly for one candidate and
wards strongly for another candidate. The results of this election
don't show this typical random pattern (is there something fishy?)"

I say "The US election system sets up large wards in cities and small
wards outside cities (in most states; I believe New Hampshire uses
electoral wards significantly smaller than county size, so they can
report the "earliest election results" from a village with 10 families).."
I say "The current voter preference is clearly different in large cities
than outside."
So we have a correlation that is outside the statistical analysis, so
the situation is not fishy but can be explained by a link outside the
realm of statistics.
I'm also amazed that Rolf thinks the mainstream media in the USA is
reliable.
When CNN reports "in-person results from County xxx are out" and fox
reports "in-person results from county xxx are out", I guess that they
are more likley right rather than wrong.
If you would now tell me that in fact the results are reported by small
wards rather than by county (in Pennsilvania, Wisconsin or Georgia),
that would be extremely surprising to me, and I don't think that any
political bias is hidden behind these statements.
When on two occasions two blocks of votes show up in Pennsylvania and they are 99.9% for Biden you have not only the right to question this but the responsibility to do so. You can count on one hand the number of times this occurred in Germany and you know why and how that occurred. Nevada and Arizona had very odd results and Nevada has also declared a recount. One of the affidavits in Wisconsin was from a poll watcher who said that entire blocks of votes would all have not just the same name but the identical signature. Postal employees were told to back date mailed out ballots and there is an affidavit on that as well. For all of Jay's ranting people have received the death penalty purely on the weight of an affidavit followed by a interrogation in court.

Wrong again. A hearsay declaration from a couple of Dumb and Dumber employees for a postal sub-contractor wouldn't be enough to raise a reasonable suspicion let alone amount to proof beyond a reasonable doubt. "I heard this guy say to another guy that they should do that thar thing with them ballots [etc., etc.] There was no ballots in my truck!" There are even declarations about some poll watcher arguing over the counting of ONE vote. Most of this stuff is humorous except for the fact that it makes us look like a bunch of rubes to the rest of the world. Again, Oregon has had vote by mail for 20 years. Fraud rate is .000006% We can spot Trump a few digits, let's say .0006% And we don't even know what way the fraud cuts -- it's not like Republicans don't cheat. https://www.timesleader.com/news/808...luzerne-county



-- Jay Beattie.

On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 11:06:23 AM UTC-8, jbeattie wrote:
On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 9:11:25 AM UTC-8, wrote:
On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 6:24:16 AM UTC-8, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 02.12.2020 um 14:17 schrieb Andre Jute:

But I'm afraid Rolf's certainties utterly escape me, and I ascribe
them to the fact that he is German (they do elections right in
Germany)
As you are evidently not a statistician or a mathematician, please let
me re-phrase my analysis in simple words.

The paper says "if everything were random, there would be small and
large wards, and there would be wards strongly for one candidate and
wards strongly for another candidate. The results of this election
don't show this typical random pattern (is there something fishy?)"

I say "The US election system sets up large wards in cities and small
wards outside cities (in most states; I believe New Hampshire uses
electoral wards significantly smaller than county size, so they can
report the "earliest election results" from a village with 10 families)."
I say "The current voter preference is clearly different in large cities
than outside."
So we have a correlation that is outside the statistical analysis, so
the situation is not fishy but can be explained by a link outside the
realm of statistics.
I'm also amazed that Rolf thinks the mainstream media in the USA is
reliable.
When CNN reports "in-person results from County xxx are out" and fox
reports "in-person results from county xxx are out", I guess that they
are more likley right rather than wrong.
If you would now tell me that in fact the results are reported by small
wards rather than by county (in Pennsilvania, Wisconsin or Georgia),
that would be extremely surprising to me, and I don't think that any
political bias is hidden behind these statements.
When on two occasions two blocks of votes show up in Pennsylvania and they are 99.9% for Biden you have not only the right to question this but the responsibility to do so. You can count on one hand the number of times this occurred in Germany and you know why and how that occurred. Nevada and Arizona had very odd results and Nevada has also declared a recount. One of the affidavits in Wisconsin was from a poll watcher who said that entire blocks of votes would all have not just the same name but the identical signature. Postal employees were told to back date mailed out ballots and there is an affidavit on that as well. For all of Jay's ranting people have received the death penalty purely on the weight of an affidavit followed by a interrogation in court.
Wrong again. A hearsay declaration from a couple of Dumb and Dumber employees for a postal sub-contractor wouldn't be enough to raise a reasonable suspicion let alone amount to proof beyond a reasonable doubt. "I heard this guy say to another guy that they should do that thar thing with them ballots [etc., etc.] There was no ballots in my truck!" There are even declarations about some poll watcher arguing over the counting of ONE vote. Most of this stuff is humorous except for the fact that it makes us look like a bunch of rubes to the rest of the world. Again, Oregon has had vote by mail for 20 years. Fraud rate is .000006% We can spot Trump a few digits, let's say .0006% And we don't even know what way the fraud cuts -- it's not like Republicans don't cheat. https://www.timesleader.com/news/808...luzerne-county

Why is it that you're avoiding those like "I personally saw a truckload of ballots all come in with the same signatures on them"? Why is it you're avoiding the computer servers that counted the votes in Georgia have been wiped? https://apnews.com/article/877ee1015...5f63538b035d3f https://www..nbcnews.com/politics/el...oting-n1112436 This is evidence and it is not fake or untrue. We know for absolute fact that the FBI had the Hunter hard drive since 2019 and took NO ACTION WHATSOEVER despite its clear evidence of Biden corruption on the highest grade with China paying him for favors. The Justice Department wasn't even informed of this until the repairman that had made a copy of it before turning it into the FBI turned his copy over to the media. And STILL NONE OF THE MEDIA REPORTED THIS BUT FOX. When FOX sent this to the Justice Department it disappeared in the US Mail until the stink made USPS "discover where it had been lost". Funny how none of my thousands of orders have NEVER been mislaid or lost.