State your opinion on COVID-19

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 3:20:29 PM UTC-7, news18 wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:59:19 -0700, Tom Kunich wrote:

and see how everyone's doing.

We have one friend with whom we shared a six-foot-separated picnic.
She has no symptoms, but she had to take off her mask to eat. Other
friends (we've seen a dozen, max) have been almost as careful, but no
masks.


My wife and I have been in self-imposed lockdown for around two weeks
now.
We only go out for groceries. It wasn’t too much of a leap, since I’m
retired and doing a minimal amount of contract work from home (although
I did lose an interesting contract which might have required travel to
Kentucky). Our only real source of exposure is our daughter, who lives
with us and works in a grocery store.

You can find the map on the John Hopkins site. If you look at the places
effected it is everywhere. What I said before is that this stuff had to
be around since August. .

NO disease can move as fast as Fauci is claiming.

You display total ignorance of how much global travel there is. not just
glbal trade in good, but also services/people.

How do you thing iran got it so fast, fly in chinese labourers on a
project.

Then there is tourism which is one major economic forces. For Australia,
there is an enomous amont of external toursm at any one time. Apparently
1 milllion Of 25 million population is overseas at any one time. There
has to be a similar of foreign tourists coming into this country at any
one time. with the growing personal wealth in china, a lot of them come
to Australia as a tourist It is not just the major cities, but pokey
country town suddenly finding they have busloads of Chinese tourists who
turn upto view something as simple as the local salt lakes, because they
appear pink and some one shared a picture. that it ignoring he hoardses
that come for the wildlife.

This all adds up to a hell of a lot of carriers. What our GovCo does know
here is that all* infected detected here have links back to Wuhan
initially or some place that received visitors from Wuhan since t was
first detected.

* There is only now, 4 months later are they acknowledging that ~25% can
not NOW be traced back.

d they have been in

The

Unlike you, I've spent my life being an actual scientist. I don't play at being one like you. Tell us all what training you've had in science or what you've ever done except read an article in the Canberra Express to make you such an expert?

On 3/30/2020 4:34 AM, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 30.03.2020 um 02:57 schrieb John B.:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B
wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank
Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish
name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick
political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than
anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations
to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable
calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with
apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the
total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4
more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz?
Let me reframe
this.

X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by
"John B"; I'm
not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at
time of
posting by "John B"))
x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people,
estimate 2018)
p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate
2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and
r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then
Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and
Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7
deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus
case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported
7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143
( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so
great than 2
days is negligible :-)

Some graphical comparisons are here
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#covid-world-seasia
including Thailand vs USA on graph 27.


Thank you.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 3:47:54 PM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote:
Sepp Ruf wrote:
Tom Kunich wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 4:56:32 PM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote:

On 3/28/2020 11:01 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:

BTW, our bike club now has its first member in intensive
care on a ventilator. I consider him a really good friend,
one of the guys who (almost) always came on my night
rides. He's much younger than me and has been a hell of a
rider, a daily commuter, fast and high mileage.

Sorry to hear that. I hope he'll get well again, preferably well enough to
enjoy riding a bike with your club again.

Fast does not equal healthy. I guess you cannot or don't wish to provide
more details on previous health, workplace environment, recent training
intensity, travels, means of transport used?

My wife and I have been in self-imposed lockdown for around two weeks
now.. We only go out for groceries. It wasn’t too much of a leap, since
I’m retired and doing a minimal amount of contract work from home
(although I did lose an interesting contract which might have required
travel to Kentucky). Our only real source of exposure is our daughter,
who lives with us and works in a grocery store.

She has such a low opinion of their groceries that she won't even bring them
to you?

Sepp, if we need something they sell in her store, we tell her to bring it
back from work with her. For stuff you can’t get there, we go out and take
the best precautions we can.


You can find the map on the John Hopkins site. If you look at the places
effected it is everywhere. What I said before is that this stuff had to
be around since August. Students in Wuhan for research, foreign exchange
or simply visiting families brought it back to their colleges. This
illness simply didn't effect the sorts of people that are college
students. Then around the holidays they brought it home to their parents
and grandparents. So it took a bit of time to reach the sorts of people
that could be seriously effect by it.

(dry cough) As you already use the Newsanchorese "John" -- may I suggest
you also use their "impact"?


It is almost impossible to believe the crap they're broadcasting of TV. This virus is so bad that an 81 year old real estate saleswoman died. 66 people in a nursing home tested positive but none are showing symptoms.

This is so fricking obviously "if it bleeds it leads" coverage that you have to be careful you don't allow yourself to be taken in by the fear mongers..

Tap water tastes like tap water again to me and not mud. I enjoy the taste of coffee again. Of course the cheap wine still tastes like cheap wine. Why couldn't the change in taste made something taste better?

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 6:09:50 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe
this.

X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm
not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
posting by "John B"))
x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2
days is negligible :-)
--
cheers,

John B.


As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were
infected, asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result or
report, and so on. These are preliminary figures and as is
often said, in war the first three reports are wrong.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

They have again ceased testing people that are not showing serious symptoms.. So again that means is that those testing positive are only the 20% of people that aren't asymptomatic or with mild to very moderate symptoms. I is very serious that they are not even attempting to get an accurate baseline to judge mortality rates with.

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 6:11:31 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 3/29/2020 1:23 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:


Mark, most of this "growth" is nothing of the kind. It is simply improved testing procedures that are allowing them to "confirm" more cases that are not new infections.

Really? Seems the medical workers feel differently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alCN4BJnJXw


--
- Frank Krygowski

I don't care what "medical workers feel". In what universe do you live in which more testing and finding more positives equals entirely new infections? Even as an engineering teacher I would have expected you to be capable of logic but I suppose that is too much to expect from a communist.

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 7:19:17 PM UTC-7, Radey Shouman wrote:
AMuzi writes:

On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe
this.

X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm
not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
posting by "John B"))
x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2
days is negligible :-)
--
cheers,

John B.


As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were infected,
asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result or report, and so on.
These are preliminary figures and as is often said, in war the first
three reports are wrong.

On the Diamond Princess it is estimated that 17.9% of infected persons
never developed any symptoms at all. I don't think they would be tested
anywhere in the US given current pre-test screening.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

And you also have to consider the clientel of cruise ships. In the winter it is mostly old retired people precisely the target audience of the virus. So even the most vulnerable are not that vulnerable to this virus.

Spring break is another story - parents often take their kids on cruises like this since it is a lesson to be made to feel extremely important. The dining rooms which are like expensive restaurants and there are even places like hot dog stands around the pool area. Just about anything you could conceivably want are onboard those cruise ships. Since testing is so spotty these kids then spread this stuff around like a plague but with far less consequences.

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 10:18:18 PM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote:
Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 3/29/2020 9:09 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank KrygowskiÂ* wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions.Â* Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconianÂ* regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz?Â* Let me reframe
this.

Â* XÂ*Â* -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B";Â* I'm
Â*Â*Â*Â* not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
Â*Â*Â*Â* posting by "John B"))
Â* x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
Â* x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
Â* p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
Â* p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand.Â* But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great thanÂ* 2
days is negligible :-)
--
cheers,

John B.


As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were infected,
asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result or report, and so on.
These are preliminary figures and as is often said, in war the first
three reports are wrong.

Damn. If only there were lots of testing kits...



And don’t forget that you need two different kinds of testing kits. One
that lights up on the virus itself, so you know who’s infected, and one
that lights up on antibodies to the virus, so you know who has had it and
has already recovered.

And THAT is the key and we do not as of yet have that and the CDC don't even seem to think it is necessary.

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 2:34:51 AM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 30.03.2020 um 02:57 schrieb John B.:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe
this.

X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm
not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
posting by "John B"))
x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2
days is negligible :-)

Some graphical comparisons are here
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#covid-world-seasia including
Thailand vs USA on graph 27.

Do you see how rapidly those graphs are dropping below the 22% daily increase number that they originally predicted. This is because as I stated, the most vulnerable groups are rapidly eliminated from the target groups.

Remember that I originally said that this disease was self limiting? That it had to be in the population a great deal longer than guessed because it simply moved far too rapidly and widely to have been started in November?

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 3:09:09 AM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 29.03.2020 um 18:59 schrieb Tom Kunich:
Seasonal flu as a rule kills people in the prime of their lives.
Especially dangerous to children 5 years and under. The overwhelming
majority of cases are to people under 65 years of age.

If this is really true for the US, then it would be a sign how bad your
health system is.
In Europe, seaonal flu kills mostly those aged 65 and above.

We do not force anyone to get vaccinated here. We strongly suggest that they do. There is an entire religion built around the belief that vaccination presents more danger to children than it solves. These are women who use social media to tell each other than since there isn't any of this virus in plain site it doesn't exist and that vaccinations which themselves have something like one thousandth of a percent fatality rates from allergic reactions are more a danger.

Be aware that the Flat Earthist have been spreading their ignorance all over the globe now that we have the Internet and a whole lot more people believe in it than you would even guess. You or I might think this actual insanity but these people seriously claim the world is flat and back it up with phrases from the Talmud or the Old Testament.

John B. writes:

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 21:34:36 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 3/29/2020 9:24 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Sir Ridesalot writes:

On Sunday, 29 March 2020 21:02:23 UTC-4, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:37:44 -0000 (UTC), news18
wrote:

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:12:34 +0700, John B. wrote:


It depends on the surface. For sars-Cov2, Cu about 4 hours to plastic
for weeks.
also depends on the mu-flora and wheather if gets consumed '

Ok, on a plastic surface it is viable for weeks. But what is Cu? and I
did look... and came across 82 definitions, starting with Credit Union
and ending with Coefficient of Utilization.
--
cheers,

John B.

Cu (from Latin: cuprum)is the symbol for copper.

Cheers

Or Christian Union, or Coming Unglued, or Celeron Unit, or Cardiac Unit,
or... :-)

Yes, any of those might have it too, but you wouldn't normally define
them as a surface

I was attempting to point out how ludicrous this constant use of
abbreviations is. I mean, well... if you can't spell than, what the
hell, just look it up.

But apparently I was being too subtle :-(
--
cheers,

John B.

A LOT of people use their cell phone to access this newsgroup and thus
rely on abbreviations to keep their texts shorter.

Chemists use them because they are understood regardless of language,
although I'm not sure what they do in non-Latin scripts.


Now there's a great question! And 'technical' too !
I had no idea but it turns out to be amazingly universal:

https://sciencenotes.org/wp-content/...aElementov.png

https://sciencenotes.org/wp-content/...huuki-hyou.png

Hey Mr Slocumb:
http://canov.jergym.cz/vyhledav/varianty/th.gif

Yup, seems to be a chart of how letters of the English alphabet are
pronounced. For Thai children, I'd guess.

I can't read Thai, but it's plainly a periodic table of the elements,
for Thai children learning chemistry, I'd guess. you can see the
pictures illustrating a use of each element, for example Mn (manganese)
is an i-beam, S (sulfur) is a vulcanized rubber tire, Co (cobalt) is a
magnet, H (hydrogen) is a zeppelin.

Sc (scandium) is a bicycle, I had no idea what that was about, but it
seems that scandium alluminum alloys are a thing:

http://www.konabikeworld.com/08_tech_scandium.htm

Nice find.