TTT in the 1989 tour

On 22 Jul 2003 11:28:04 +0200, Benjamin Werner
wrote:


Just by curiosity, I checked the TTT result of 89. Fignon's team
(Super U) won it, and Lemond's team was 53'' back, to be compared with
the 43'' USPS got over Ullrich's Bianchi.

The similarities don't end the

1. Lemond wins the first ITT (stage 5/73km) - +56" over Fignon (2003 -
Gaillac)
2. Fignon beats Lemond in Superbagneres +12" for Fignon
3. Lemond beats Fignon in ITT #2 + 47" over Fignon (2003 - Gaillac)
4. Lemond beats Fignon in Briancon - +13" over Fignon
5. Fignon beats Lemond at Alpe d'Huez - +1'19" for Fignon (2003 - Luz
Ardiden)
6. Fignon beats Lemond at Villard - +24"
7. Paris ITT.


It is another similarity between 89 and 03 that Lemond and Ullrich, as
come-back kids are in a weaker team. Of course, this does not say
anything magical about the final ITT.




Cheers,



Benjamin

Benjamin Werner wrote:

Just by curiosity, I checked the TTT result of 89. Fignon's team
(Super U) won it, and Lemond's team was 53'' back, to be compared with
the 43'' USPS got over Ullrich's Bianchi.

It is another similarity between 89 and 03 that Lemond and Ullrich, as
come-back kids are in a weaker team. Of course, this does not say
anything magical about the final ITT.

Cheers,

Benjamin

Except that Ullrich can't pull out any fancy aero equipment to gain a
decisive advantage.

On Tue, 22 Jul 2003 12:30:07 GMT, David Ryan
wrote:

Benjamin Werner wrote:

Just by curiosity, I checked the TTT result of 89. Fignon's team
(Super U) won it, and Lemond's team was 53'' back, to be compared with
the 43'' USPS got over Ullrich's Bianchi.

It is another similarity between 89 and 03 that Lemond and Ullrich, as
come-back kids are in a weaker team. Of course, this does not say
anything magical about the final ITT.

Cheers,

Benjamin

Except that Ullrich can't pull out any fancy aero equipment to gain a
decisive advantage.

Not that made any difference three days ago.

True, but Armstrong had a substandard performance during the last part of
the race, brought on partially (if not completely) by not properly preparing
during the warm up (e.g., warm up in a cool room like Ullrich) and becoming
severely dehydrated (though I doubt the reports of how much in the way of
fluids he lost. Had he taken on more fluids the time gaps may (and most
likely) would have been much smaller. If it is not particularly hot during
the last ITT, then Ullrich cannot count on Armstrong suffering in the heat
again.

If both men enter the ITT in reasonably good form and both perform
relatively well, I suspect that the ITT is a toss up; but even if you
assumed that Ullrich's chances are 70:30 (which I think past history, which
is all we have, would show this is very generous for Ullrich) and if you
parse out the 67 seconds in 10 seconds increments and ask yourself what are
the chances that Ullrich will win by 10 seconds or less, 20 seconds or less,
etc. and you build a probabilty curve, you will find that there is probably
less than a 20% chance he could actually win by 67seconds or more (assuming
LA rides well - which we will not know until that day). Given that in this
particular example we have assumed he would win 70% of the time, that means
he probability of beating LA by 67 seconds is a paultry 14%. In other
words, the probability is that 86% of the time LA will either win or will
retain enough of a lead to win the TDF. Ullrich's chances drop considerable
if you assume parity in the abilities (at parity Ullrich's probabilty of
winning the TDF drop to 10%); however assuming that Ullrich would win every
time out of the gate, only improves his chances by 20% in this example. For
Ullrich to have a substantial probability (keep in mind this is simply
attempting to provide a probability assessment as to the final outcome -
remarkable things can and do happen, but the probability that they do is
uncommon, that is why many of us become embroiled in the drama) of winning
you have to assume that he would beat LA 100% of the time and that 50% of
the time (assuming both men ride well) he could take 67 seconds out of
Armstrong. History does not support those generous assumptions.

If either man rides poorly than the other will likely win the Tour. I stand
by my prediction: Armstrong has to have an average to poor day in the saddle
to loose, if he is on, Ullrich may simply close the gap.

Which may be more tragic then loosing the last ITT.

Rick

wrote in message
. ..
True, but Armstrong had a substandard performance during the last part of
the race, brought on partially (if not completely) by not properly
preparing
during the warm up (e.g., warm up in a cool room like Ullrich) and
becoming
severely dehydrated (though I doubt the reports of how much in the way of
fluids he lost. Had he taken on more fluids the time gaps may (and most
likely) would have been much smaller. If it is not particularly hot
during
the last ITT, then Ullrich cannot count on Armstrong suffering in the heat
again.

If both men enter the ITT in reasonably good form and both perform
relatively well, I suspect that the ITT is a toss up; but even if you
assumed that Ullrich's chances are 70:30 (which I think past history,
which
is all we have, would show this is very generous for Ullrich) and

if you
parse out the 67 seconds in 10 seconds increments and ask yourself what
are
the chances that Ullrich will win by 10 seconds or less, 20 seconds or
less,
etc. and you build a probabilty curve, you will find that there is
probably
less than a 20% chance he could actually win by 67seconds or more
(assuming
LA rides well - which we will not know until that day).

Exactly right. We will see that Ullrich lost on the slopes of Luz Ardiden.
LA will ride wil more confidence having the 67 seconds in hand. The stress
of having Ullrich only 15 seconds behind may have contributed to a bad TT.
lacne needed that win for so many reasons. I was expecting that kind of
performance on the 8th stage. It is not normal for Lance to wait that long.
It sure made for a graet Tour though.

Given that in this
particular example we have assumed he would win 70% of the time, that
means
he probability of beating LA by 67 seconds is a paultry 14%. In other
words, the probability is that 86% of the time LA will either win or will
retain enough of a lead to win the TDF. Ullrich's chances drop
considerable
if you assume parity in the abilities (at parity Ullrich's probabilty of
winning the TDF drop to 10%); however assuming that Ullrich would win
every
time out of the gate, only improves his chances by 20% in this example.
For
Ullrich to have a substantial probability (keep in mind this is simply
attempting to provide a probability assessment as to the final outcome -
remarkable things can and do happen, but the probability that they do is
uncommon, that is why many of us become embroiled in the drama) of winning
you have to assume that he would beat LA 100% of the time and that 50% of
the time (assuming both men ride well) he could take 67 seconds out of
Armstrong. History does not support those generous assumptions.

If either man rides poorly than the other will likely win the Tour. I
stand
by my prediction: Armstrong has to have an average to poor day in the
saddle
to loose, if he is on, Ullrich may simply close the gap.

Which may be more tragic then loosing the last ITT.

Rick

Does Ullrich need 67 seconds or 68?
The tie-break rules are complex, remember.
Let's say he takes back 67 seconds. Who wins the Tour?