State your opinion on COVID-19

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:59:19 -0700, Tom Kunich wrote:

and see how everyone's doing.

We have one friend with whom we shared a six-foot-separated picnic.
She has no symptoms, but she had to take off her mask to eat. Other
friends (we've seen a dozen, max) have been almost as careful, but no
masks.


My wife and I have been in self-imposed lockdown for around two weeks
now.
We only go out for groceries. It wasn’t too much of a leap, since I’m
retired and doing a minimal amount of contract work from home (although
I did lose an interesting contract which might have required travel to
Kentucky). Our only real source of exposure is our daughter, who lives
with us and works in a grocery store.

You can find the map on the John Hopkins site. If you look at the places
effected it is everywhere. What I said before is that this stuff had to
be around since August. .

NO disease can move as fast as Fauci is claiming.

You display total ignorance of how much global travel there is. not just
glbal trade in good, but also services/people.

How do you thing iran got it so fast, fly in chinese labourers on a
project.

Then there is tourism which is one major economic forces. For Australia,
there is an enomous amont of external toursm at any one time. Apparently
1 milllion Of 25 million population is overseas at any one time. There
has to be a similar of foreign tourists coming into this country at any
one time. with the growing personal wealth in china, a lot of them come
to Australia as a tourist It is not just the major cities, but pokey
country town suddenly finding they have busloads of Chinese tourists who
turn upto view something as simple as the local salt lakes, because they
appear pink and some one shared a picture. that it ignoring he hoardses
that come for the wildlife.

This all adds up to a hell of a lot of carriers. What our GovCo does know
here is that all* infected detected here have links back to Wuhan
initially or some place that received visitors from Wuhan since t was
first detected.

* There is only now, 4 months later are they acknowledging that ~25% can
not NOW be traced back.

d they have been in

The

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:28:21 -0400, Radey Shouman
wrote:

John B. writes:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 21:09:46 -0400, Radey Shouman
wrote:

Ralph Barone writes:

AMuzi wrote:
On 3/28/2020 2:18 PM, Mark J. wrote:
On 3/28/2020 10:09 AM, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/28/2020 11:01 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name
calling by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick
political jabs, defensive changes of subjet, and "I know
better than anyone" allusions. Things get obscured.

So I'd like to get a direct answer, especially from Tom and
from Andrew.

Tom: Do you really think COVID-19 is no worse than an
ordinary seasonal flu?

Andrew: Do you really think COVID-19 is no worse than an
ordinary seasonal flu?

Of course, this is a discussion group. Others are very
welcome to give their opinion too.

BTW, our bike club now has its first member in intensive
care on a ventilator. I consider him a really good friend,
one of the guys who (almost) always came on my night rides.
He's much younger than me and has been a hell of a rider, a
daily commuter, fast and high mileage.


Up to here, yes. Death is not trivial to the fatality
himself, but the numbers haven't supported panic so far.

I will change my opinion when/if the numbers change [...]

Sadly, give it a week or two. Cases are roughly quadrupling
each week in the US [based on CDC reports]. Exponential
growth doesn't catch the public eye when the absolute
numbers are low, but those low numbers don't last long.

We are solidly on track to eclipse the "regular-flu" numbers.

Mark J.


but having known
people who died of pneumonia from influenza, my point was
merely that it's the same death (and an unpleasant one at
that) to fewer people.

see also:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/images/about...nza-burden.png


If influenza were unknown until this year, people would
freak out at forty million infected and 50,000 Americans
dead.

If you want to do something useful and patriotic, do
something about the even larger number of Americans who
die annually by _hospital acquired infection_. That
number is not getting smaller year over year- it's growing.



Another danger is a mental incapacity caused by a political
correctness infestation. From WMAL today:

https://www.wmal.com/news/yes-we-lon...uldnt-anymore/

Headline:
"Yes, we long have referred to disease outbreaks by
geographic places. Here’s why we shouldn’t anymore"

Main argument worthy of a failing grade in a high school
logic class:
"During the 2003 SARS outbreak, media coverage of the
disease led to the stigmatization of Asian communities in
countries such as Canada. It devastated Chinese-owned
businesses, especially those located in Chinatowns."

I looked for SARS on a map. Couldn't find it.

Perhaps in time all this will pass, just as we no longer use
"the French disease".

Or “the Spanish Flu”, named after the one country that had the balls to
admit it existed.

You oversimplify -- Spain was neutral during the Great War, so their
press remained freer than that of combatant nations. "In war, the first
casualty is the truth".

I think that is an over simplification. In war, or perhaps at any
time, there are at least two truths, our's and their's. "Our" news is,
of course, true and honest while "Their" news is, of course, nothing
but lies :-)

During the Great War combatant nations censored news of the spread of
the flu, do you disagree? Maybe it was a conscious decision to boost
public morale, maybe it was just a reflex to quash bad news, I'm not
historian enough to say.

You are talking about the flu epidemic of 1918? that killed some 50
million people - 675,000 in the U.S. alone.

And they kept it a secret?


(Then there is "that other news" that both Us and Them label as pure
fabrication :-)
--
cheers,

John B.

Sepp Ruf wrote:
Tom Kunich wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 4:56:32 PM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote:

On 3/28/2020 11:01 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:

BTW, our bike club now has its first member in intensive
care on a ventilator. I consider him a really good friend,
one of the guys who (almost) always came on my night
rides. He's much younger than me and has been a hell of a
rider, a daily commuter, fast and high mileage.

Sorry to hear that. I hope he'll get well again, preferably well enough to
enjoy riding a bike with your club again.

Fast does not equal healthy. I guess you cannot or don't wish to provide
more details on previous health, workplace environment, recent training
intensity, travels, means of transport used?

My wife and I have been in self-imposed lockdown for around two weeks
now.. We only go out for groceries. It wasn’t too much of a leap, since
I’m retired and doing a minimal amount of contract work from home
(although I did lose an interesting contract which might have required
travel to Kentucky). Our only real source of exposure is our daughter,
who lives with us and works in a grocery store.

She has such a low opinion of their groceries that she won't even bring them
to you?

Sepp, if we need something they sell in her store, we tell her to bring it
back from work with her. For stuff you can’t get there, we go out and take
the best precautions we can.


You can find the map on the John Hopkins site. If you look at the places
effected it is everywhere. What I said before is that this stuff had to
be around since August. Students in Wuhan for research, foreign exchange
or simply visiting families brought it back to their colleges. This
illness simply didn't effect the sorts of people that are college
students. Then around the holidays they brought it home to their parents
and grandparents. So it took a bit of time to reach the sorts of people
that could be seriously effect by it.

(dry cough) As you already use the Newsanchorese "John" -- may I suggest
you also use their "impact"?

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 18:37:28 +0200, Sepp Ruf
wrote:

news18 wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:12:34 +0700, John B. wrote:

It depends on the surface. For sars-Cov2, Cu about 4 hours to plastic
for weeks.
also depends on the mu-flora and wheather if gets consumed '

Ok, on a plastic surface it is viable for weeks. But what is Cu? and I
did look... and came across 82 definitions, starting with Credit Union
and ending with Coefficient of Utilization.

Cu (from Latin: cuprum)is the symbol for copper.

Cheers

Or Christian Union, or Coming Unglued, or Celeron Unit, or Cardiac Unit,
or... :-)

Yes, any of those might have it too, but you wouldn't normally define
them as a surface

John, here's an airbus driver's ed test for you:
http://avherald.com/h?article=4d1e782d
You have fourty (40) seconds to find out, without looking at the comments,
which one is the least important data piece among these four,
A. 6.43 miles,
B. 668 ft,
C. 7 nanometers, or
D. 2000 fpm.

(Correct answer earns you one Former Flyer Mile with Thai Air.)

What in the world is an "airbus"? Is that something new that y'all
have invented back there in the Land of Plenty? Or are you referring
to the European company?

But you are comparing oranges and apples. Distance and velocity.
Tain't the same :-)
He was driving 100 mph when he hit the bridge abutment just ain't the
same as he drove a hundred miles to hit the bridge abutment.
--
cheers,

John B.

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe
this.

X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm
not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
posting by "John B"))
x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2
days is negligible :-)
--
cheers,

John B.

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:37:44 -0000 (UTC), news18
wrote:

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:12:34 +0700, John B. wrote:


It depends on the surface. For sars-Cov2, Cu about 4 hours to plastic
for weeks.
also depends on the mu-flora and wheather if gets consumed '

Ok, on a plastic surface it is viable for weeks. But what is Cu? and I
did look... and came across 82 definitions, starting with Credit Union
and ending with Coefficient of Utilization.
--
cheers,

John B.

Cu (from Latin: cuprum)is the symbol for copper.

Cheers

Or Christian Union, or Coming Unglued, or Celeron Unit, or Cardiac Unit,
or... :-)

Yes, any of those might have it too, but you wouldn't normally define
them as a surface

I was attempting to point out how ludicrous this constant use of
abbreviations is. I mean, well... if you can't spell than, what the
hell, just look it up.

But apparently I was being too subtle :-(
--
cheers,

John B.

On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe
this.

X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm
not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
posting by "John B"))
x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2
days is negligible :-)
--
cheers,

John B.


As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were
infected, asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result or
report, and so on. These are preliminary figures and as is
often said, in war the first three reports are wrong.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 3/29/2020 1:23 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:


Mark, most of this "growth" is nothing of the kind. It is simply improved testing procedures that are allowing them to "confirm" more cases that are not new infections.

Really? Seems the medical workers feel differently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alCN4BJnJXw


--
- Frank Krygowski

On 3/29/2020 1:35 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes:

On 3/28/2020 7:15 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes:


We have one friend with whom we shared a six-foot-separated
picnic. She has no symptoms, but she had to take off her mask to
eat. Other friends (we've seen a dozen, max) have been almost as
careful, but no masks.

A dozen since the Ohio "shelter in place" order? Honestly that seems
like a large number to me. Our social life is pretty much all remote
now, aside from two or three chance meetings.

About half of those were on March 17, before the official order, but
even then we were being very careful. At that time, they had said "6
feet minimum" and (I think) "no more than 10 in a group."

I interpreted the figure of ten people as an upper limit for gatherings
not exempted, not carte blanche to get together with nine of your
friends. But until the tear gas drones are deployed each of us must use
his own best judgement.

We were careful. There were seven of us in a 20' x 40' room, spaced at
least six feet apart, playing musical instruments. Twelve days later,
none have any symptoms. I don't think we did anything dangerous.

Today we did a five mile woodland hike. On single track footpaths, we
did unavoidably pass people closer than six feet. But I suspect we'll be
OK again. We'll see, I guess.

(BTW, winds were gusting to 40 mph. Our friend said it was too windy to
ride, but we saw quite a few on bikes.)

--
- Frank Krygowski

On 3/29/2020 8:57 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe
this.

X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm
not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
posting by "John B"))
x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2
days is negligible :-)

Regarding Thailand and the U.S., it's notable that Thailand's population
density is more than triple that of the U.S. I think it's highly likely
that density makes transmission easier.

And in fact, the COVID problem in the U.S. is largely confined to dense
cities. Cattle ranchers in Wyoming don't have to worry much. I think if
you adjusted the denominators to exclude the vast, isolated areas of the
U.S., our data would look much worse by comparison.

But I assume our political systems and cultures are very different.
Strategies that work in Thailand may be impractical or impossible here.

--
- Frank Krygowski