State your opinion on COVID-19

On 3/29/2020 9:09 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank KrygowskiÂ* wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions.Â* Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconianÂ* regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz?Â* Let me reframe
this.

Â* XÂ*Â* -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B";Â* I'm
Â*Â*Â*Â* not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
Â*Â*Â*Â* posting by "John B"))
Â* x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
Â* x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
Â* p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
Â* p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand.Â* But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great thanÂ* 2
days is negligible :-)
--
cheers,

John B.


As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were infected,
asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result or report, and so on.
These are preliminary figures and as is often said, in war the first
three reports are wrong.

Damn. If only there were lots of testing kits...


--
- Frank Krygowski

On 3/29/2020 8:31 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 3/29/2020 9:09 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B
wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank
Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into
childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick
political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than
anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconianÂ
regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable
calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with
apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the
total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4
more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios,
plz? Let me reframe
this.

 X  -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post
by "John B";Â I'm
    not going to figure out at how many it is/was
(at time of
    posting by "John B"))
 x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
 x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
 p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people,
estimate 2018)
 p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people,
estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and
r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then
Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and
Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7
deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus
case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported
7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143
( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so
great than 2
days is negligible :-)
--
cheers,

John B.


As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were
infected, asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result
or report, and so on. These are preliminary figures and as
is often said, in war the first three reports are wrong.

Damn. If only there were lots of testing kits...



Some, perhaps even you, want to make that a political issue
and assign blame, but the very rapid advances in this area
are a credit to our diverse and creative society.

I, for one, will admit that six months ago I gave no thought
whatsoever to the CDC policies as regards virus testing
protocols and red-tape for approvals or lack thereof. This
situation does remind the reader with some memory of the
early AIDS fiasco wherein a poorly designed test, backed by
Dr Gallo of CDC, was the only 'approved' test despite much
innovation outside CDC. That, too, was eventually resolved
with widespread innovation by many organizations and their
various creative people.

la plus ca change as is often said...

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Sunday, 29 March 2020 21:02:23 UTC-4, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:37:44 -0000 (UTC), news18
wrote:

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:12:34 +0700, John B. wrote:


It depends on the surface. For sars-Cov2, Cu about 4 hours to plastic
for weeks.
also depends on the mu-flora and wheather if gets consumed '

Ok, on a plastic surface it is viable for weeks. But what is Cu? and I
did look... and came across 82 definitions, starting with Credit Union
and ending with Coefficient of Utilization.
--
cheers,

John B.

Cu (from Latin: cuprum)is the symbol for copper.

Cheers

Or Christian Union, or Coming Unglued, or Celeron Unit, or Cardiac Unit,
or... :-)

Yes, any of those might have it too, but you wouldn't normally define
them as a surface

I was attempting to point out how ludicrous this constant use of
abbreviations is. I mean, well... if you can't spell than, what the
hell, just look it up.

But apparently I was being too subtle :-(
--
cheers,

John B.

A LOT of people use their cell phone to access this newsgroup and thus rely on abbreviations to keep their texts shorter.

Cheers

AMuzi writes:

On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe
this.

X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm
not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
posting by "John B"))
x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2
days is negligible :-)
--
cheers,

John B.


As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were infected,
asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result or report, and so on.
These are preliminary figures and as is often said, in war the first
three reports are wrong.

On the Diamond Princess it is estimated that 17.9% of infected persons
never developed any symptoms at all. I don't think they would be tested
anywhere in the US given current pre-test screening.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

Sir Ridesalot writes:

On Sunday, 29 March 2020 21:02:23 UTC-4, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:37:44 -0000 (UTC), news18
wrote:

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:12:34 +0700, John B. wrote:


It depends on the surface. For sars-Cov2, Cu about 4 hours to plastic
for weeks.
also depends on the mu-flora and wheather if gets consumed '

Ok, on a plastic surface it is viable for weeks. But what is Cu? and I
did look... and came across 82 definitions, starting with Credit Union
and ending with Coefficient of Utilization.
--
cheers,

John B.

Cu (from Latin: cuprum)is the symbol for copper.

Cheers

Or Christian Union, or Coming Unglued, or Celeron Unit, or Cardiac Unit,
or... :-)

Yes, any of those might have it too, but you wouldn't normally define
them as a surface

I was attempting to point out how ludicrous this constant use of
abbreviations is. I mean, well... if you can't spell than, what the
hell, just look it up.

But apparently I was being too subtle :-(
--
cheers,

John B.

A LOT of people use their cell phone to access this newsgroup and thus
rely on abbreviations to keep their texts shorter.

Chemists use them because they are understood regardless of language,
although I'm not sure what they do in non-Latin scripts.

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 21:18:54 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On 3/29/2020 1:35 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes:

On 3/28/2020 7:15 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes:


We have one friend with whom we shared a six-foot-separated
picnic. She has no symptoms, but she had to take off her mask to
eat. Other friends (we've seen a dozen, max) have been almost as
careful, but no masks.

A dozen since the Ohio "shelter in place" order? Honestly that seems
like a large number to me. Our social life is pretty much all remote
now, aside from two or three chance meetings.

About half of those were on March 17, before the official order, but
even then we were being very careful. At that time, they had said "6
feet minimum" and (I think) "no more than 10 in a group."

I interpreted the figure of ten people as an upper limit for gatherings
not exempted, not carte blanche to get together with nine of your
friends. But until the tear gas drones are deployed each of us must use
his own best judgement.

We were careful. There were seven of us in a 20' x 40' room, spaced at
least six feet apart, playing musical instruments. Twelve days later,
none have any symptoms. I don't think we did anything dangerous.

Ah Frank! If there were seven of you in a room and twelve days later
none of the twelve have any symptoms it wouldn't be proof that you did
the right thing. It would be proof that none of you had the disease.
:-)
--
cheers,

John B.

On 3/29/2020 9:19 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
AMuzi writes:

On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe
this.

X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm
not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
posting by "John B"))
x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2
days is negligible :-)
--
cheers,

John B.


As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were infected,
asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result or report, and so on.
These are preliminary figures and as is often said, in war the first
three reports are wrong.

On the Diamond Princess it is estimated that 17.9% of infected persons
never developed any symptoms at all. I don't think they would be tested
anywhere in the US given current pre-test screening.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm


Right. With a group that skews to elderly in a relatively
closed environment after wandering around various ports
(almost a worst-case situation).

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 3/29/2020 9:24 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Sir Ridesalot writes:

On Sunday, 29 March 2020 21:02:23 UTC-4, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:37:44 -0000 (UTC), news18
wrote:

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:12:34 +0700, John B. wrote:


It depends on the surface. For sars-Cov2, Cu about 4 hours to plastic
for weeks.
also depends on the mu-flora and wheather if gets consumed '

Ok, on a plastic surface it is viable for weeks. But what is Cu? and I
did look... and came across 82 definitions, starting with Credit Union
and ending with Coefficient of Utilization.
--
cheers,

John B.

Cu (from Latin: cuprum)is the symbol for copper.

Cheers

Or Christian Union, or Coming Unglued, or Celeron Unit, or Cardiac Unit,
or... :-)

Yes, any of those might have it too, but you wouldn't normally define
them as a surface

I was attempting to point out how ludicrous this constant use of
abbreviations is. I mean, well... if you can't spell than, what the
hell, just look it up.

But apparently I was being too subtle :-(
--
cheers,

John B.

A LOT of people use their cell phone to access this newsgroup and thus
rely on abbreviations to keep their texts shorter.

Chemists use them because they are understood regardless of language,
although I'm not sure what they do in non-Latin scripts.


Now there's a great question! And 'technical' too !
I had no idea but it turns out to be amazingly universal:

https://sciencenotes.org/wp-content/...aElementov.png

https://sciencenotes.org/wp-content/...huuki-hyou.png

Hey Mr Slocumb:
http://canov.jergym.cz/vyhledav/varianty/th.gif
--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 20:09:40 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe
this.

X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm
not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
posting by "John B"))
x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2
days is negligible :-)
--
cheers,

John B.


As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were
infected, asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result or
report, and so on. These are preliminary figures and as is
often said, in war the first three reports are wrong.

Ah yes... but preliminary numbers are all that there are :-0

As for "the first three reports are wrong"... I suspect that depends
greatly on what the reports are. For example, it was said that the
U.S. daily reporting of enemy killed during the Vietnam fiasco, if
added up, amounted to something like the entire population of N.
Vietnam.
--
cheers,

John B.

On 3/29/2020 9:52 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 20:09:40 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe
this.

X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm
not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
posting by "John B"))
x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2
days is negligible :-)

As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were
infected, asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result or
report, and so on. These are preliminary figures and as is
often said, in war the first three reports are wrong.

Ah yes... but preliminary numbers are all that there are :-0

As for "the first three reports are wrong"... I suspect that depends
greatly on what the reports are. For example, it was said that the
U.S. daily reporting of enemy killed during the Vietnam fiasco, if
added up, amounted to something like the entire population of N.
Vietnam.


I can't recall who coined that phrase, Napoleon maybe? But
it's much quoted and often spot-on.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971