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IQ-X vs Edelux II



 
 
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  #121  
Old April 22nd 19, 01:48 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
John B. Slocomb
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 547
Default IQ-X vs Edelux II

On Sun, 21 Apr 2019 17:11:03 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On Sunday, April 21, 2019 at 7:40:12 PM UTC-4, sms wrote:
On 4/21/2019 3:36 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:
On Sun, 21 Apr 2019 13:33:47 -0700, sms
wrote:

On 4/19/2019 3:43 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:

snip

The Odense study, for example, tested the effectiveness of tiny
little, "flea powered" (to use Jay's description) flashing lights
mounted at hub level at both front and rear wheels. Yet today we are
told that one must use blindly bright lights to be safe.

The ultimate results of the Odense study seems to have been the change
in a Danish law to allow the use of always on DRL's which, apparently,
had previously been forbidden in Denmark.

People with an agenda will always try to pick apart any study that is
corporate funded, even when the study is conducted by a university and
is published in a respected scientific journal
https://vbn.aau.dk/ws/portalfiles/portal/274548813/Safety_effects_of_permanent_running_lights_for_bic ycles.pdf.

It isn't a matter of "picking apart". It is a matter of understanding
what went on and what the results were. I might remind you that simply
"being published in a respected scientific journal" is hardly proof of
anything. After all the term "peer reviewed" means simply that one
publishes and than your "peers" try to rip what you have published
apart... and frequently are successful.

Recognize that there aren't governments all over the world funding
double-blind studies on daytime bicycle lights. You have the Odense
study funded by Reelight and conducted by Aalborg University in Denmark,
and the Trek funded study conducted by Clemson. The studies are cited by
the companies that funded them in an effort to sell their daytime light
products.

Which appeared to prove that the use of tiny little magnet powered
DRL's reduced bicycle accidents. In fact it proved that it reduced
solo accidents... Imagine that. Put a tiny little flashing light on
your bike (actually two of them, front and rear) and it will reduce
the number of times that you fall off your bike, run off the road, or
do some equally stupid stunt, while all alone.

Besides these two studies, you have copious amounts of evidence on
motorcycle DRLs which logically extend to bicycle DRLs in many respects.
You also have the conspicuity studies unrelated to any type of vehicle
that just measure conspicuity between light on no light.

Yes, as you so frequently mentions "copious studies". It is certainly
an easy thing to say but you never seem to be able to document, in any
way, rather than by repeating your own words over and over, that what
you say is in any associated with facts.


These have been cited numerous times in this newsgroup. You're free to
go back and look at them again, though there is no real reason for you
to do so because you will find some minor flaw in all of them and
declare them to be invalid.


For those that oppose DRLs on bicycles (or cars, or motorcycles) on
philosophical grounds, no quantity of studies will change their
mind--there will always be something that they will point to in the
study that isn't perfect and declare the study to be completely invalid.
Sadly, that's the state of science in the U.S. today, and why we still
have anti-vaxers, climate change deniers, and flat-earth believers.
However in this case, it's a little more puzzling than in those other
cases because there's no downside to DRLs at all.

Yes a little puzzling... I refer you to:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/...-studies-wrong

Which states in part:

"Most scientific studies are wrong, and they are wrong because
scientists are interested in funding and careers rather than truth."


So that's the best you can do? It's rather hopeless to use scientific
evidence or statistical evidence to convince you of anything. You've
made up your mind. It's like the ultra-religious of any religion, "God
said it, I believe it, and that settles it." Scary.


This from a guy with a religious belief in daytime running lights, even
"flea powered" ones, and a religious belief in magic plastic hats. A man who
constantly touts "countless studies" but can't be bothered to post links to
them. A man who has repeatedly proclaimed himself to be a "world's greatest
expert" on multiple matters - helmets, lights, folding bikes, coffee...

And who bragged online about his "guerilla marketing" via various discussion
groups, at his websites which said "If you buy the items I recommend, please
start by clicking the links here so I get my commission" or words to that
effect.

- Frank Krygowski


It might be noted that while the Odense study clearly shows that the
DRL's reduced daylight multi-vehicle accidents by a factor of ~50%
they had a negligible effect on multi-vehicle accidents after dark.

And, might even ponder whether, if the tiny little Reelights (powered
by a magnet) reduced multi-vehicle accidents by such an astonishing
factor, what would a really bright DRL do?

--

Cheers,

John B.
Ads
  #122  
Old April 22nd 19, 05:07 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
SMS
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 9,477
Default IQ-X vs Edelux II

On 4/21/2019 5:36 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:

snip

But perhaps I am making a fundamental error in that I read the entire
report before making a statement rather than simply reading the title,
and than referring grandly to the report (in total ignorance of it's
content) as you so obviously do.


Your fundamental error is that you don't understand the difference
between correlation and causation. Or you do understand it but you're
dismissing it. This is not uncommon among non-technical individuals that
lack training in statistics, probability, and engineering.
  #123  
Old April 22nd 19, 05:10 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
JBeattie
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 5,870
Default IQ-X vs Edelux II

On Sunday, April 21, 2019 at 5:48:46 PM UTC-7, John B. Slocomb wrote:
On Sun, 21 Apr 2019 17:11:03 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On Sunday, April 21, 2019 at 7:40:12 PM UTC-4, sms wrote:
On 4/21/2019 3:36 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:
On Sun, 21 Apr 2019 13:33:47 -0700, sms
wrote:

On 4/19/2019 3:43 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:

snip

The Odense study, for example, tested the effectiveness of tiny
little, "flea powered" (to use Jay's description) flashing lights
mounted at hub level at both front and rear wheels. Yet today we are
told that one must use blindly bright lights to be safe.

The ultimate results of the Odense study seems to have been the change
in a Danish law to allow the use of always on DRL's which, apparently,
had previously been forbidden in Denmark.

People with an agenda will always try to pick apart any study that is
corporate funded, even when the study is conducted by a university and
is published in a respected scientific journal
https://vbn.aau.dk/ws/portalfiles/portal/274548813/Safety_effects_of_permanent_running_lights_for_bic ycles.pdf.

It isn't a matter of "picking apart". It is a matter of understanding
what went on and what the results were. I might remind you that simply
"being published in a respected scientific journal" is hardly proof of
anything. After all the term "peer reviewed" means simply that one
publishes and than your "peers" try to rip what you have published
apart... and frequently are successful.

Recognize that there aren't governments all over the world funding
double-blind studies on daytime bicycle lights. You have the Odense
study funded by Reelight and conducted by Aalborg University in Denmark,
and the Trek funded study conducted by Clemson. The studies are cited by
the companies that funded them in an effort to sell their daytime light
products.

Which appeared to prove that the use of tiny little magnet powered
DRL's reduced bicycle accidents. In fact it proved that it reduced
solo accidents... Imagine that. Put a tiny little flashing light on
your bike (actually two of them, front and rear) and it will reduce
the number of times that you fall off your bike, run off the road, or
do some equally stupid stunt, while all alone.

Besides these two studies, you have copious amounts of evidence on
motorcycle DRLs which logically extend to bicycle DRLs in many respects.
You also have the conspicuity studies unrelated to any type of vehicle
that just measure conspicuity between light on no light.

Yes, as you so frequently mentions "copious studies". It is certainly
an easy thing to say but you never seem to be able to document, in any
way, rather than by repeating your own words over and over, that what
you say is in any associated with facts.

These have been cited numerous times in this newsgroup. You're free to
go back and look at them again, though there is no real reason for you
to do so because you will find some minor flaw in all of them and
declare them to be invalid.


For those that oppose DRLs on bicycles (or cars, or motorcycles) on
philosophical grounds, no quantity of studies will change their
mind--there will always be something that they will point to in the
study that isn't perfect and declare the study to be completely invalid.
Sadly, that's the state of science in the U.S. today, and why we still
have anti-vaxers, climate change deniers, and flat-earth believers.
However in this case, it's a little more puzzling than in those other
cases because there's no downside to DRLs at all.

Yes a little puzzling... I refer you to:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/...-studies-wrong

Which states in part:

"Most scientific studies are wrong, and they are wrong because
scientists are interested in funding and careers rather than truth."

So that's the best you can do? It's rather hopeless to use scientific
evidence or statistical evidence to convince you of anything. You've
made up your mind. It's like the ultra-religious of any religion, "God
said it, I believe it, and that settles it." Scary.


This from a guy with a religious belief in daytime running lights, even
"flea powered" ones, and a religious belief in magic plastic hats. A man who
constantly touts "countless studies" but can't be bothered to post links to
them. A man who has repeatedly proclaimed himself to be a "world's greatest
expert" on multiple matters - helmets, lights, folding bikes, coffee...

And who bragged online about his "guerilla marketing" via various discussion
groups, at his websites which said "If you buy the items I recommend, please
start by clicking the links here so I get my commission" or words to that
effect.

- Frank Krygowski


It might be noted that while the Odense study clearly shows that the
DRL's reduced daylight multi-vehicle accidents by a factor of ~50%
they had a negligible effect on multi-vehicle accidents after dark.

And, might even ponder whether, if the tiny little Reelights (powered
by a magnet) reduced multi-vehicle accidents by such an astonishing
factor, what would a really bright DRL do?


A super-bright DRL would virtually eliminate all bicycle accidents, just as it has done for cars and motorcycles. You never hear of cars hitting each other anymore. Why would we not want the same for bikes?

A super-bright flasher does make me feel better when cars are misbehaving. It's like a little punishment. Bad cars! Bad! Take that! I want a 2,000 lumen flashing helmet light that I can point at the dopes with 2,000 lumen flashing helmet lights. Have a light war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esnMDtMysHo

-- Jay Beattie.
  #124  
Old April 22nd 19, 05:29 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Ralph Barone[_4_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 853
Default IQ-X vs Edelux II

sms wrote:
On 4/21/2019 5:36 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:

snip

But perhaps I am making a fundamental error in that I read the entire
report before making a statement rather than simply reading the title,
and than referring grandly to the report (in total ignorance of it's
content) as you so obviously do.


Your fundamental error is that you don't understand the difference
between correlation and causation. Or you do understand it but you're
dismissing it. This is not uncommon among non-technical individuals that
lack training in statistics, probability, and engineering.


You may be guilty of the same sin yourself. How do you know?

  #125  
Old April 22nd 19, 08:00 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
John B. Slocomb
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 547
Default IQ-X vs Edelux II

On Sun, 21 Apr 2019 21:07:45 -0700, sms
wrote:

On 4/21/2019 5:36 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:

snip

But perhaps I am making a fundamental error in that I read the entire
report before making a statement rather than simply reading the title,
and than referring grandly to the report (in total ignorance of it's
content) as you so obviously do.


Your fundamental error is that you don't understand the difference
between correlation and causation. Or you do understand it but you're
dismissing it. This is not uncommon among non-technical individuals that
lack training in statistics, probability, and engineering.


Tell me, oh Sage. What am I dismissing?

After all, to the best of my recollection I haven't mentioned a word
about disagreeing with anything in the Odense Study. I simply
highlighted a couple of their findings.... not disagreeing with them.

After all, I'm the one that read the entire report and said so. You,
on the other hand, apparently haven't read the report, or at least you
seem strangely reluctant to admit it, and seem to rely on rather vague
pronouncements to somehow obscure the fact that you really don't
appear to know what you are talking about. .
--

Cheers,

John B.
  #126  
Old April 22nd 19, 08:12 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
John B. Slocomb
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 547
Default IQ-X vs Edelux II

On Sun, 21 Apr 2019 21:10:59 -0700 (PDT), jbeattie
wrote:

On Sunday, April 21, 2019 at 5:48:46 PM UTC-7, John B. Slocomb wrote:
On Sun, 21 Apr 2019 17:11:03 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On Sunday, April 21, 2019 at 7:40:12 PM UTC-4, sms wrote:
On 4/21/2019 3:36 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:
On Sun, 21 Apr 2019 13:33:47 -0700, sms
wrote:

On 4/19/2019 3:43 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:

snip

The Odense study, for example, tested the effectiveness of tiny
little, "flea powered" (to use Jay's description) flashing lights
mounted at hub level at both front and rear wheels. Yet today we are
told that one must use blindly bright lights to be safe.

The ultimate results of the Odense study seems to have been the change
in a Danish law to allow the use of always on DRL's which, apparently,
had previously been forbidden in Denmark.

People with an agenda will always try to pick apart any study that is
corporate funded, even when the study is conducted by a university and
is published in a respected scientific journal
https://vbn.aau.dk/ws/portalfiles/portal/274548813/Safety_effects_of_permanent_running_lights_for_bic ycles.pdf.

It isn't a matter of "picking apart". It is a matter of understanding
what went on and what the results were. I might remind you that simply
"being published in a respected scientific journal" is hardly proof of
anything. After all the term "peer reviewed" means simply that one
publishes and than your "peers" try to rip what you have published
apart... and frequently are successful.

Recognize that there aren't governments all over the world funding
double-blind studies on daytime bicycle lights. You have the Odense
study funded by Reelight and conducted by Aalborg University in Denmark,
and the Trek funded study conducted by Clemson. The studies are cited by
the companies that funded them in an effort to sell their daytime light
products.

Which appeared to prove that the use of tiny little magnet powered
DRL's reduced bicycle accidents. In fact it proved that it reduced
solo accidents... Imagine that. Put a tiny little flashing light on
your bike (actually two of them, front and rear) and it will reduce
the number of times that you fall off your bike, run off the road, or
do some equally stupid stunt, while all alone.

Besides these two studies, you have copious amounts of evidence on
motorcycle DRLs which logically extend to bicycle DRLs in many respects.
You also have the conspicuity studies unrelated to any type of vehicle
that just measure conspicuity between light on no light.

Yes, as you so frequently mentions "copious studies". It is certainly
an easy thing to say but you never seem to be able to document, in any
way, rather than by repeating your own words over and over, that what
you say is in any associated with facts.

These have been cited numerous times in this newsgroup. You're free to
go back and look at them again, though there is no real reason for you
to do so because you will find some minor flaw in all of them and
declare them to be invalid.


For those that oppose DRLs on bicycles (or cars, or motorcycles) on
philosophical grounds, no quantity of studies will change their
mind--there will always be something that they will point to in the
study that isn't perfect and declare the study to be completely invalid.
Sadly, that's the state of science in the U.S. today, and why we still
have anti-vaxers, climate change deniers, and flat-earth believers.
However in this case, it's a little more puzzling than in those other
cases because there's no downside to DRLs at all.

Yes a little puzzling... I refer you to:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/...-studies-wrong

Which states in part:

"Most scientific studies are wrong, and they are wrong because
scientists are interested in funding and careers rather than truth."

So that's the best you can do? It's rather hopeless to use scientific
evidence or statistical evidence to convince you of anything. You've
made up your mind. It's like the ultra-religious of any religion, "God
said it, I believe it, and that settles it." Scary.

This from a guy with a religious belief in daytime running lights, even
"flea powered" ones, and a religious belief in magic plastic hats. A man who
constantly touts "countless studies" but can't be bothered to post links to
them. A man who has repeatedly proclaimed himself to be a "world's greatest
expert" on multiple matters - helmets, lights, folding bikes, coffee...

And who bragged online about his "guerilla marketing" via various discussion
groups, at his websites which said "If you buy the items I recommend, please
start by clicking the links here so I get my commission" or words to that
effect.

- Frank Krygowski


It might be noted that while the Odense study clearly shows that the
DRL's reduced daylight multi-vehicle accidents by a factor of ~50%
they had a negligible effect on multi-vehicle accidents after dark.

And, might even ponder whether, if the tiny little Reelights (powered
by a magnet) reduced multi-vehicle accidents by such an astonishing
factor, what would a really bright DRL do?


A super-bright DRL would virtually eliminate all bicycle accidents, just as it has done for cars and motorcycles. You never hear of cars hitting each other anymore. Why would we not want the same for bikes?

A super-bright flasher does make me feel better when cars are misbehaving. It's like a little punishment. Bad cars! Bad! Take that! I want a 2,000 lumen flashing helmet light that I can point at the dopes with 2,000 lumen flashing helmet lights. Have a light war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esnMDtMysHo

-- Jay Beattie.



Actually, I have read here that with a bright enough light motor
vehicles simply will not pull out of a parking lot in front of a
bicycle. It is simply amazing what a bright light will accomplish...

But having said that I must quote James Thurber who once said that
"There are two kinds of light - the glow that illuminates, and the
glare that obscures."
--

Cheers,

John B.
  #127  
Old April 22nd 19, 10:12 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Tosspot[_3_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,563
Default IQ-X vs Edelux II

On 22/04/2019 01.36, John B. Slocomb wrote:

snip

I repeat. I simply report what the Odense study showed.... that tiny
DRL's reduced the number of solo accidents... Apparently just mounting
these "flea power" (to use Jay's words) lights on your bike will
reduce the number of time you fall off your bike, run off the road,
miss the turn or any of the other things that you do with no help from
others. AND it will even reduce, albeit slightly, the percentage of
those solo accidents that result in "personal injury" as the Study has
it.


Sold! I'm going to get one.
  #128  
Old April 22nd 19, 02:10 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Andre Jute[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,422
Default IQ-X vs Edelux II

On Monday, April 22, 2019 at 5:29:14 AM UTC+1, Ralph Barone wrote:
sms wrote:
On 4/21/2019 5:36 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:

snip

But perhaps I am making a fundamental error in that I read the entire
report before making a statement rather than simply reading the title,
and than referring grandly to the report (in total ignorance of it's
content) as you so obviously do.


Your fundamental error is that you don't understand the difference
between correlation and causation. Or you do understand it but you're
dismissing it. This is not uncommon among non-technical individuals that
lack training in statistics, probability, and engineering.


You may be guilty of the same sin yourself. How do you know?


With reference to the reduction in solo accidents in the Odense Reelight study we may be looking at the inverse of the risk compensation the anti-helmet zealots are always going on about, in which cyclists with helmets are said to take more and crazier risks because they're wearing a helmet. The obverse would be that those issued with lamps and told they're taking part in a safety study took fewer risks and thus had fewer accidents. Both reactions seem reasonable though at the levels cited by posters to RBT, if honestly cited, these reactions seem questionably oversized, definitely worth investigation as psychological phenomena in their own right

More generally, people who practice statistics in commerce where you can be fired for being stupid (more likely, if you're stupid, you won't be promoted into a position where even small misjudgements will have hugely destructive outcomes), soon discover that statistics are rarely dispositive, that you rarely have the time, even if you have the money, to do a killer study with a properly sized and stratified sample that precisely parallels the supposed universe (I'm still waiting for the resident self-proclaimed experts to tell me precisely who are "cyclists"). The upshot is that statistics, in rooms where big-money decisions are taken, become an art form of trying to extract rational conclusions or even just pointers to reduce the chaos of unknowns which managers are paid to navigate, from surveys that are always recognised as being "a good study, but not enough of it".

Compare to academe where any old **** goes to such an extent that statistics often seem to be a branch of politics rather than the handmaiden of science, and where samples are generally, because of shortage of funds, "whoever is willing to speak to your interviewers", and the interviewers are usually students with their own passionate preformed bias rather than expensive professionals who are never told what the study's working hypothesis is.

As for the inbuilt sampling errors of telephone interviews, don't get me started.

Andre Jute
An idiot is someone who asks first about the level of confidence
  #129  
Old April 22nd 19, 03:53 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
SMS
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 9,477
Default IQ-X vs Edelux II

On 4/21/2019 9:10 PM, jbeattie wrote:

snip

A super-bright DRL would virtually eliminate all bicycle accidents, just as it has done for cars and motorcycles. You never hear of cars hitting each other anymore. Why would we not want the same for bikes?


The 2008 NHTSA study is probably the most applicable to bicycles. It
showed a 25% reduction in crashes involving motorcycles when DRLs were
used. The excuse drivers cite most often in crashes involving
motorcycles and bicycles is "I just didn't see them."

A super-bright flasher does make me feel better when cars are misbehaving. It's like a little punishment. Bad cars! Bad! Take that! I want a 2,000 lumen flashing helmet light that I can point at the dopes with 2,000 lumen flashing helmet lights. Have a light war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esnMDtMysHo


I would advise against doing this. You could incur liability if there
was a crash due to blinding the driver.

  #130  
Old April 22nd 19, 03:58 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
SMS
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 9,477
Default IQ-X vs Edelux II

On 4/22/2019 12:00 AM, John B. Slocomb wrote:

snip

Tell me, oh Sage. What am I dismissing?


You are attempting to dismiss causation by focusing on correlation. It's
a common argument technique in both the lighting debates and helmet debates.

"Solo crashes descreased when DRLs were used so that proves that DRLs
did not contribute to the reduction in other crashes."

"Non-head injuries went down when helmets were worn so that proves that
helmets don't reduce the severity of head injuries in head-impact crashes."

Neither is a valid argument.
 




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