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CSC dilemma



 
 
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  #1  
Old July 2nd 05, 07:15 PM
Kurgan Gringioni
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Default CSC dilemma

Dumbasses -

Their goal was to have Basso challenge LANCE for the jersey.

Good plan considering his ride last year and what he displayed in the
Giro this year.

Problem is, now how hard do they defend Zabriskie's jersey? If they use
up the team defending it, it makes it harder for them to protect Basso
later on.

Zabriskie's got a fat lead over everyone but LANCE.

It's a good problem to have, I suppose.



thanks,

K. Gringioni.

  #2  
Old July 2nd 05, 07:19 PM
DepartFictif
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Dimtit.

What do you think?!! Mr. 60 has proven himself a fine tactician in the
past; why should that change now?

  #3  
Old July 2nd 05, 07:24 PM
BigLoco
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While I'm thinking we won't see Basso bringing water bottles back up to
Zabriskie, I'm thinking they'll defend hard.

I think their director may be smart enough to know that they should take all
the publicity they can now. It doesn't look good for the contenders...



"Kurgan Gringioni" wrote in message
oups.com...
Dumbasses -

Their goal was to have Basso challenge LANCE for the jersey.

Good plan considering his ride last year and what he displayed in the
Giro this year.

Problem is, now how hard do they defend Zabriskie's jersey? If they use
up the team defending it, it makes it harder for them to protect Basso
later on.

Zabriskie's got a fat lead over everyone but LANCE.

It's a good problem to have, I suppose.



thanks,

K. Gringioni.



  #4  
Old July 2nd 05, 08:35 PM
Jack Hollis
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On Sat, 2 Jul 2005 12:24:12 -0600, "BigLoco"
wrote:

While I'm thinking we won't see Basso bringing water bottles back up to
Zabriskie, I'm thinking they'll defend hard.

I think their director may be smart enough to know that they should take all
the publicity they can now. It doesn't look good for the contenders...



It's a bit early to think that all of Lance's main rivals have started
to think about second place, but if anyone doubted that Lance is in
good form, that has been laid to rest.

I doubt that today could have gone any better for Lance. He put
serious time on all his competitors and CSC has yellow but the man in
yellow is not Basso. If CSC expends energy defending the yellow, it
will hurt Bassos's chances in the GC. If they let it go, they could
end up with nothing. Considering that Basso is already 1'24" behind
they have to think that Basso is a long shot. My guess is that CSC
will try to defend as long as they can.

Jan has to be demoralized after seeing Lance pass him on the road.
Talk about starting the Tour on a down note. I doubt that Jan will
sleep well tonight.

Too bad that no one actually saw Zabriskie ride. A ride like that
deserves to be seen. The BBC reported that conditions worsened as the
day went on, but determining who was helped (or hurt) by the wind (or
lack of it) is a fools errand.
  #5  
Old July 2nd 05, 11:47 PM
Mike Jacoubowsky
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Too bad that no one actually saw Zabriskie ride. A ride like that
deserves to be seen. The BBC reported that conditions worsened as the
day went on, but determining who was helped (or hurt) by the wind (or
lack of it) is a fools errand.


Not always. I was in Nantes in 2003, when David Millar won the final ITT. He
went very early, and had an incredibly-strong tailwind from a storm that was
blowing through. An hour later it was wet but without wind. Given the course
& wind direction, there is no doubt in my mind that he wouldn't have even
been in the running for a podium position had he gone later on. Keep in mind
that he even crashed during the race and still won.

Yet nobody brought this up at the time. Is it considered unsportsmanlike to
do so (among sports writers)? Curious that in track & field there are
difinitive standards for "wind aided" times, and that's primarily because of
the effect it might have on records. In a bicycle time trial, the riders are
spread out over a much greater amount of time, such that conditions can
potentially change dramatically.

However, I don't see any practical way to deal with the issue, as it's not
something that's predictable in a way that could create a manipulated
outcome. It's the luck of the draw, as starting order is determined by the
prior-day's events.

--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReaction.com
Redwood City & Los Altos, CA USA


"Jack Hollis" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 2 Jul 2005 12:24:12 -0600, "BigLoco"
wrote:

While I'm thinking we won't see Basso bringing water bottles back up to
Zabriskie, I'm thinking they'll defend hard.

I think their director may be smart enough to know that they should take
all
the publicity they can now. It doesn't look good for the contenders...



It's a bit early to think that all of Lance's main rivals have started
to think about second place, but if anyone doubted that Lance is in
good form, that has been laid to rest.

I doubt that today could have gone any better for Lance. He put
serious time on all his competitors and CSC has yellow but the man in
yellow is not Basso. If CSC expends energy defending the yellow, it
will hurt Bassos's chances in the GC. If they let it go, they could
end up with nothing. Considering that Basso is already 1'24" behind
they have to think that Basso is a long shot. My guess is that CSC
will try to defend as long as they can.

Jan has to be demoralized after seeing Lance pass him on the road.
Talk about starting the Tour on a down note. I doubt that Jan will
sleep well tonight.

Too bad that no one actually saw Zabriskie ride. A ride like that
deserves to be seen. The BBC reported that conditions worsened as the
day went on, but determining who was helped (or hurt) by the wind (or
lack of it) is a fools errand.



  #6  
Old July 2nd 05, 11:55 PM
Ewoud Dronkert
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Default

Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:
conditions can potentially change dramatically. [...]
I don't see any practical way to deal with the issue


Easy. Speed skating dealt with the issue by building indoor ice rinks. Ride
all TTs on velodromes.


  #7  
Old July 3rd 05, 01:44 AM
Mike Jacoubowsky
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Default

Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:
conditions can potentially change dramatically. [...]
I don't see any practical way to deal with the issue


Easy. Speed skating dealt with the issue by building indoor ice rinks.
Ride
all TTs on velodromes.


Do they require patrons to smoke, as they do for indooor velodromes?
-
--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReaction.com
Redwood City & Los Altos, CA USA


"Ewoud Dronkert" wrote in message
...
Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:
conditions can potentially change dramatically. [...]
I don't see any practical way to deal with the issue


Easy. Speed skating dealt with the issue by building indoor ice rinks.
Ride
all TTs on velodromes.




  #8  
Old July 3rd 05, 08:02 AM
TM
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Default


"Jack Hollis" wrote in message
...

is a fools errand.


You've come to the right place.



  #9  
Old July 2nd 05, 07:25 PM
Tim Lines
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Default

Kurgan Gringioni wrote:

Problem is, now how hard do they defend Zabriskie's jersey? If they use
up the team defending it, it makes it harder for them to protect Basso
later on.

Which is why they'll put in exactly 0 effort to preserve Zaby's jersey.

Zabriskie's got a fat lead over everyone but LANCE.


With maximum team effort, how long do you suppose CSC could keep that
jersey? It'll be gone after the TTT no matter what they do.

  #10  
Old July 2nd 05, 08:16 PM
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Default

Tim Lines wrote:
Kurgan Gringioni wrote:


With maximum team effort, how long do you suppose CSC could keep that
jersey? It'll be gone after the TTT no matter what they do.


With Zabriskie, Voigt, Julich and Basso, and Disco missing Ekimov,
that is not assured. A while back, an expert panel of RBR analysts
concluded that cumulative prologue times are a pretty good predictor
of TTT rank. CSC won the teams classification today, but by only a
hair over Disco.

CSC's willingness to defend the jersey probably depends on how
much the sprinters' teams help them reel in the breaks. CSC would
have to keep breaks close enough that teams like QS and Davitolottomon
feel it's worthwhile to pull for the last N kms of a stage.
Too bad T-Mob left Zabel at home!

 




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