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CSC dilemma



 
 
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  #11  
Old July 2nd 05, 11:47 PM
Mike Jacoubowsky
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Too bad that no one actually saw Zabriskie ride. A ride like that
deserves to be seen. The BBC reported that conditions worsened as the
day went on, but determining who was helped (or hurt) by the wind (or
lack of it) is a fools errand.


Not always. I was in Nantes in 2003, when David Millar won the final ITT. He
went very early, and had an incredibly-strong tailwind from a storm that was
blowing through. An hour later it was wet but without wind. Given the course
& wind direction, there is no doubt in my mind that he wouldn't have even
been in the running for a podium position had he gone later on. Keep in mind
that he even crashed during the race and still won.

Yet nobody brought this up at the time. Is it considered unsportsmanlike to
do so (among sports writers)? Curious that in track & field there are
difinitive standards for "wind aided" times, and that's primarily because of
the effect it might have on records. In a bicycle time trial, the riders are
spread out over a much greater amount of time, such that conditions can
potentially change dramatically.

However, I don't see any practical way to deal with the issue, as it's not
something that's predictable in a way that could create a manipulated
outcome. It's the luck of the draw, as starting order is determined by the
prior-day's events.

--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReaction.com
Redwood City & Los Altos, CA USA


"Jack Hollis" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 2 Jul 2005 12:24:12 -0600, "BigLoco"
wrote:

While I'm thinking we won't see Basso bringing water bottles back up to
Zabriskie, I'm thinking they'll defend hard.

I think their director may be smart enough to know that they should take
all
the publicity they can now. It doesn't look good for the contenders...



It's a bit early to think that all of Lance's main rivals have started
to think about second place, but if anyone doubted that Lance is in
good form, that has been laid to rest.

I doubt that today could have gone any better for Lance. He put
serious time on all his competitors and CSC has yellow but the man in
yellow is not Basso. If CSC expends energy defending the yellow, it
will hurt Bassos's chances in the GC. If they let it go, they could
end up with nothing. Considering that Basso is already 1'24" behind
they have to think that Basso is a long shot. My guess is that CSC
will try to defend as long as they can.

Jan has to be demoralized after seeing Lance pass him on the road.
Talk about starting the Tour on a down note. I doubt that Jan will
sleep well tonight.

Too bad that no one actually saw Zabriskie ride. A ride like that
deserves to be seen. The BBC reported that conditions worsened as the
day went on, but determining who was helped (or hurt) by the wind (or
lack of it) is a fools errand.



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  #12  
Old July 2nd 05, 11:51 PM
Tim Mullin
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"Kurgan Gringioni" wrote in
oups.com:

Problem is, now how hard do they defend Zabriskie's jersey?


They don't have to. It's flat up to the TTT. The sprinter's teams will keep
it all together until then.
  #13  
Old July 2nd 05, 11:55 PM
Ewoud Dronkert
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Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:
conditions can potentially change dramatically. [...]
I don't see any practical way to deal with the issue


Easy. Speed skating dealt with the issue by building indoor ice rinks. Ride
all TTs on velodromes.


  #14  
Old July 3rd 05, 01:44 AM
Mike Jacoubowsky
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Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:
conditions can potentially change dramatically. [...]
I don't see any practical way to deal with the issue


Easy. Speed skating dealt with the issue by building indoor ice rinks.
Ride
all TTs on velodromes.


Do they require patrons to smoke, as they do for indooor velodromes?
-
--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReaction.com
Redwood City & Los Altos, CA USA


"Ewoud Dronkert" wrote in message
...
Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:
conditions can potentially change dramatically. [...]
I don't see any practical way to deal with the issue


Easy. Speed skating dealt with the issue by building indoor ice rinks.
Ride
all TTs on velodromes.




  #15  
Old July 3rd 05, 02:40 AM
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Sandy wrote:

Unless a strong contender gets in the breaks over the next few, flat days,
there is no motivation for CSC to actively defend anything. Bunch finishes,
all the way to Germany. No time lost, no jersey strongly defended, no
imagination.

But that's the modern tour, yes ?


They have to ride on the front because (a) the team of the leader is
expected to and (b) they need to chase down or deter any breaks with
threats in them. Once a break of their liking is established, they
can slack off a little, but they still have to keep the gap small
enough that the sprinters' teams will finish it off in the last half
or third of the race. So they might not be working as much during
the part of the race that most people see on TV, but that doesn't
mean they get to coast.

Yes, things were so much better in the wool jersey days, when we
were young and beautiful (as Jobst says) but global warming means
we can't go back to wool jerseys in July ...

  #16  
Old July 3rd 05, 03:25 AM
Tom Kunich
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"Kurgan Gringioni" wrote in message
oups.com...
Dumbasses -

Their goal was to have Basso challenge LANCE for the jersey.

Good plan considering his ride last year and what he displayed in the
Giro this year.

Problem is, now how hard do they defend Zabriskie's jersey? If they use
up the team defending it, it makes it harder for them to protect Basso
later on.

Zabriskie's got a fat lead over everyone but LANCE.

It's a good problem to have, I suppose.


Consider - if they don't defend the Jersey creditably there's going to be
some REALLY hot headlines on the press in Scandanavia.


  #17  
Old July 3rd 05, 04:45 AM
Nev Shea
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Ewoud Dronkert wrote in
:

On 2 Jul 2005 11:15:02 -0700, Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
Their goal was to have Basso challenge LANCE for the jersey.
Problem is, now how hard do they defend Zabriskie's jersey?


Another big, big goal was to have the yellow in the first week. Good
start. They will defend.


No worries -- if the team gets burned out defending the yellow jersey,
Basso's days with Fassa Bortolo prepared him to ride the rest of the tour
with no help at all.

NS
  #18  
Old July 3rd 05, 04:57 AM
sonarrat
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Tim Mullin wrote:
"Kurgan Gringioni" wrote in
oups.com:


Problem is, now how hard do they defend Zabriskie's jersey?



They don't have to. It's flat up to the TTT. The sprinter's teams will keep
it all together until then.


What sprinters' teams? Fassa Bortolo and T-Mobile are the strong
sprinters' teams, and they left their sprinters at home. Cancellara
says he wants to get the jersey.. but he won't get it from bonus seconds
in sprints. Even Petacchi couldn't manage that from his current position.

Lotto, CA and FDJ are not remarkably great at controlling the peloton.
  #19  
Old July 3rd 05, 05:20 AM
Raptor
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They will fight to hold onto the yellow jersey, and continue their
strong showing in the team competition. Riis (like everyone else) has
looked at the DSC lineup and Lance's form and concluded that Lance will
probably win barring a major problem. So CSC will lead the fight for
scraps, and probably beat everyone out for the lion's share of other prizes.

--
--
Lynn Wallace http://www.xmission.com/~lawall
"We should not march into Baghdad. ... Assigning young soldiers to
a fruitless hunt for a securely entrenched dictator and condemning
them to fight in what would be an unwinnable urban guerilla war, it
could only plunge that part of the world into ever greater
instability." George Bush Sr. in his 1998 book "A World Transformed"

  #20  
Old July 3rd 05, 05:23 AM
Raptor
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Tim Lines wrote:
This makes sense to me. I'd hate to see them put in a lot of unaided
team effort for Zabriskie.


It occurs to me that few breaks could stay (far) away from D. Zabriskie,
especially if he has any help.

--
--
Lynn Wallace http://www.xmission.com/~lawall
"We should not march into Baghdad. ... Assigning young soldiers to
a fruitless hunt for a securely entrenched dictator and condemning
them to fight in what would be an unwinnable urban guerilla war, it
could only plunge that part of the world into ever greater
instability." George Bush Sr. in his 1998 book "A World Transformed"

 




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