Just what does a 60% chance of rain mean?

Does it mean that somewhere within 100 miles of me there is a 60%
chance of rain falling, or does it mean that there is a 60% chance
that I'm going to get rained on (assumimg that I'm outside)?

I'm not a big fan of biking in the rain, although being around 90F
today I sort of am looking forward to it.

"dgk" wrote in message
...
Does it mean that somewhere within 100 miles of me there is a 60%
chance of rain falling, or does it mean that there is a 60% chance
that I'm going to get rained on (assumimg that I'm outside)?

I'm not a big fan of biking in the rain, although being around 90F
today I sort of am looking forward to it.

In my experience it means there is a 60% chance that they will change the
forecast just before you leave.

Seriously, it seems every date this summer I penciled in for a ride the
long range forecast switched. I was almost hoping to get thunderstorm
forecasts as I knew by ride time it would have flipped. The only problem was
that the reverse worked too.

"dgk" wrote: (clip) being around 90F
today I sort of am looking forward to it.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Normal body temp is 98.6F. You may be dying.

Leo Lichtman wrote:
"dgk" wrote: (clip) being around 90F
today I sort of am looking forward to it.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Normal body temp is 98.6F. You may be dying.


Just for laughs and giggles, I wake up fully functional at 95 degrees
(F) but if I am riding and hit a cold front and drop to that I can't
ride over 5 MPH. I had to have some bored firefighters pick me up once
when the temperature dropped from 70 to 55 in about 45 minutes and I was
going into hypothermia. I forgot to eat that day and had already done a
lot of miles in the mountains. They just warmed me up, joked with me,
and took me home, no problem since there were no serious calls that night.

Bill Baka

On Fri, 07 Aug 2009 05:11:29 -0700, Bill Baka wrote:

Leo Lichtman wrote:
"dgk" wrote: (clip) being around 90F
today I sort of am looking forward to it.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Normal body temp is 98.6F. You may be dying.


Just for laughs and giggles, I wake up fully functional at 95 degrees

How do you know this, Bill?

(F) but if I am riding and hit a cold front and drop to that I can't
ride over 5 MPH. I had to have some bored firefighters pick me up once
when the temperature dropped from 70 to 55 in about 45 minutes and I was
going into hypothermia. I forgot to eat that day and had already done a
lot of miles in the mountains. They just warmed me up, joked with me,
and took me home, no problem since there were no serious calls that
night.

Do you *really* expect people to believe bull**** like this? Really?
You actually think you'll go into hypothermia in 55 degrees, while riding
a bicycle?

Quit trying to blow smoke up people's asses, Bill. You're nothing but a
blowhard teller of tall tales, and not even good at it.


--
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Dan C wrote:
On Fri, 07 Aug 2009 05:11:29 -0700, Bill Baka wrote:

Leo Lichtman wrote:
"dgk" wrote: (clip) being around 90F
today I sort of am looking forward to it.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Normal body temp is 98.6F. You may be dying.


Just for laughs and giggles, I wake up fully functional at 95 degrees

How do you know this, Bill?

I keep a bedside digital thermometer just to see how relaxed I get while
sleeping.

(F) but if I am riding and hit a cold front and drop to that I can't
ride over 5 MPH. I had to have some bored firefighters pick me up once
when the temperature dropped from 70 to 55 in about 45 minutes and I was
going into hypothermia. I forgot to eat that day and had already done a
lot of miles in the mountains. They just warmed me up, joked with me,
and took me home, no problem since there were no serious calls that
night.

Do you *really* expect people to believe bull**** like this? Really?
You actually think you'll go into hypothermia in 55 degrees, while riding
a bicycle?

Yes, moron. I didn't eat that day and was out of useable energy so I was
only barely pedaling at 6 to 8 MPH at 10 P.M. after the sun had left me.

Quit trying to blow smoke up people's asses, Bill. You're nothing but a
blowhard teller of tall tales, and not even good at it.


I can't help it you are stupid. Stupid is not curable. Mild hypothermia is.

Bill Baka

Bill Baka wrote:

(F) but if I am riding and hit a cold front and drop to that I can't
ride over 5 MPH. I had to have some bored firefighters pick me up once
when the temperature dropped from 70 to 55 in about 45 minutes and I was
going into hypothermia. I forgot to eat that day and had already done a
lot of miles in the mountains. They just warmed me up, joked with me,
and took me home, no problem since there were no serious calls that
night.

Do you *really* expect people to believe bull**** like this? Really?
You actually think you'll go into hypothermia in 55 degrees, while riding
a bicycle?

I've ridden quite a lot at that temperature. I find that 55 is the
point at which I start to need a windbreaker. My particular ride is six
miles, mostly downhill, before sunrise. The couple of times I forgot
the jacket, I found myself shivering by the time I reached my
destination.

Yes, moron. I didn't eat that day and was out of useable energy so I
was
only barely pedaling at 6 to 8 MPH at 10 P.M. after the sun had left
me.
If Bill's ride was longer than mine, at a different level of
strenuousness, or maybe the humidity or wind was a little more severe,
or if his metabolism is a little different than mine or had been thrown
out of whack by a lack of ready carbs, I can see how hypothermia could
have ensued.

Quit trying to blow smoke up people's asses, Bill. You're nothing but a
blowhard teller of tall tales, and not even good at it.

Note to Dan C : If you find Bill Baka's "tall tales" so onerous, I
recommend that you activate your twit filter, or just plain ignore him.
That will free you of the terrible burden of having to endure his posts.
The rest of us will somehow endure without you to police the group for
us.
Personally, I find that most of Bill's posts lie somewhere along a
line between "interesting" and "possibly remembered in an exaggerated
way." Your posts, OTOH, lie squarely on "obnoxious."


Frumious

__o | Profanity and obscenity entitle people who don't
_`\(,_ | want unpleasant information to close their ears
(_)/ (_) | and eyes to you. - Kurt Vonnegut

"dgk" wrote in message
...
Does it mean that somewhere within 100 miles of me there is a 60%
chance of rain falling, or does it mean that there is a 60% chance
that I'm going to get rained on (assumimg that I'm outside)?

I'm not a big fan of biking in the rain, although being around 90F
today I sort of am looking forward to it.

I ran into a story about this a few months back and learned something
new from it.

Apparently it is intended to indicate neither the _percentage of
different locations_ within the named area which are expected to get wet
that day, nor the _percentage of time_ any given location might get wet on
that day. Rather, it is intended to indicate the _percentage of different
days_, each having the same atmospheric conditions, when rain will fall
somewhere within the named area. And apparently then that means that on (100
minus _that percentage of days_) no rain will fall anywhere within that
area.

See:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0414130623.htm

------------ Begin quote from article linked to above:
....new research indicates that only about half the population knows what a
forecast means when it predicts a 20 percent chance of rain, according to
researchers at the University of Washington.

Writing in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, the
researchers said the confusion comes because people don't understand what
the 20 percent chance of rain actually refers to. Many people think it means
that it will rain over 20 percent of the area covered by the forecast or for
20 percent of the time period covered by the forecast, said Susan Joslyn, a
UW cognitive psychologist and senior lecturer.

"When a forecast says there is 20 percent chance of rain tomorrow it
actually means it will rain on 20 percent of the days with exactly the same
atmospheric conditions," she said."
------------ End quote.

On Wed, 5 Aug 2009 09:17:59 -0700, "Terry Neff"
wrote:

"dgk" wrote in message
.. .
Does it mean that somewhere within 100 miles of me there is a 60%
chance of rain falling, or does it mean that there is a 60% chance
that I'm going to get rained on (assumimg that I'm outside)?

I'm not a big fan of biking in the rain, although being around 90F
today I sort of am looking forward to it.

I ran into a story about this a few months back and learned something
new from it.

Apparently it is intended to indicate neither the _percentage of
different locations_ within the named area which are expected to get wet
that day, nor the _percentage of time_ any given location might get wet on
that day. Rather, it is intended to indicate the _percentage of different
days_, each having the same atmospheric conditions, when rain will fall
somewhere within the named area. And apparently then that means that on (100
minus _that percentage of days_) no rain will fall anywhere within that
area.

See:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0414130623.htm

------------ Begin quote from article linked to above:
...new research indicates that only about half the population knows what a
forecast means when it predicts a 20 percent chance of rain, according to
researchers at the University of Washington.

Writing in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, the
researchers said the confusion comes because people don't understand what
the 20 percent chance of rain actually refers to. Many people think it means
that it will rain over 20 percent of the area covered by the forecast or for
20 percent of the time period covered by the forecast, said Susan Joslyn, a
UW cognitive psychologist and senior lecturer.

"When a forecast says there is 20 percent chance of rain tomorrow it
actually means it will rain on 20 percent of the days with exactly the same
atmospheric conditions," she said."
------------ End quote.






Ok, so all it is telling me is that there is a 60% chance of rain
somewhere in the area. Actually, it has dropped to 40%. I'm very
likely not to get wet, at least by rain.

dgk wrote:

Ok, so all it is telling me is that there is a 60% chance of rain
somewhere in the area.

No, it means that there is 100% chance of rain in 60% of the area, but
they don't know which 60% that is. So you do have a 60% chance of
getting rained on.

This makes sense if you think about it. Those moving clouds are going to
dump their water somewhere over the area, it's just not clear exactly where.