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#81
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 2:54:38 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 10/10/2017 1:16 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: Frank Krygowski writes: On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 1:19:43 AM UTC-4, John B. wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 22:37:43 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 10/9/2017 3:13 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 11:30:40 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski wrote: I wasn't doubting that auto-cars will exist and become popular. I was doubting that the government will "shove them down our throats." I wonder whether they will ever become popular given that they quite obviously will be more expensive, perhaps much more expensive, I am reading numbers as large as $75,000 for Google's autonomous driving vehicle. Didn't SMS recently post something about buying a new car? I seem to remember numbers in the range of a third of that value. I imagine you're right, that in the short term these things will be expensive. But I expect that long term the price difference will be greatly reduced. (I imagine the phone in my pocket would have been worth ten thousand dollars 10 years ago, if it existed at all.) But what do you get for this money? After all probably everyone reading this is capable of driving an automobile so what advantage does this, rather expensive, self-driver provide? Well: To my astonishment, I find that I'm driving long distances much more often since I retired. It's not just retirement that influenced that (although it enabled it); there have been family matters that have arisen, new obligations and avocations, different circles of friends, etc. But driving an hour each way is now far, far too common. And sitting behind a steering wheel always seems damned unproductive. Even if self-driving worked only on limited access freeways, it would ease a lot of frustration. I think it would make the experience of freeway driving much more like the experience of riding a train in a private compartment. The couple times I've done that, I found it to be fairly pleasant. Another problem that might arise. Will a self-driver work if one visits Canada, or Mexico? I guess it would depend on whether the system required a two-way communication network. If so, Canada might achieve that before the U.S. did. (I assume a bunch of U.S. states would declare this to be a muslim or communist conspiracy and refuse to buy into it.) With current technology recognition of traffic signs is still very brittle, see for example: https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-...ing-algorithms or https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/09...-driving-cars/ An octagonal red sign may scream "stop" to you and me, even if it actually says "alto" or "pare", but we're not machine vision programs, which are "taught" to recognize signs without anything like understanding of the concepts human beings use. For example, flat surface, road sign, octagon ... I suspect that if the powers that be (not all strictly government) desire widespread autonomous vehicles that some system of transponders not intelligible to unaided human beings will be required, and pedestrians and cyclists and drivers of antique vehicles will have to adapt or be squashed. To many of those powers this is a feature, not a bug. Fleet drivers in 2017/2018 18-wheelers are already experiencing troubles such as random panic braking by computer where no danger exists. The first complaint I heard was last spring from a driver who came near a lane split sign: http://www.trafficsignstore.com/merc...0001/W12-1.jpg and the truck brakes locked up, followed ten seconds later by a call from dispatcher, "Why did you brake?" Maximum Homerdrive |
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#82
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 8:30:53 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 1:19:43 AM UTC-4, John B. wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 22:37:43 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 10/9/2017 3:13 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 11:30:40 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski wrote: I wasn't doubting that auto-cars will exist and become popular. I was doubting that the government will "shove them down our throats." I wonder whether they will ever become popular given that they quite obviously will be more expensive, perhaps much more expensive, I am reading numbers as large as $75,000 for Google's autonomous driving vehicle. Didn't SMS recently post something about buying a new car? I seem to remember numbers in the range of a third of that value. I imagine you're right, that in the short term these things will be expensive. But I expect that long term the price difference will be greatly reduced. (I imagine the phone in my pocket would have been worth ten thousand dollars 10 years ago, if it existed at all.) But what do you get for this money? After all probably everyone reading this is capable of driving an automobile so what advantage does this, rather expensive, self-driver provide? Well: To my astonishment, I find that I'm driving long distances much more often since I retired. It's not just retirement that influenced that (although it enabled it); there have been family matters that have arisen, new obligations and avocations, different circles of friends, etc. But driving an hour each way is now far, far too common. And sitting behind a steering wheel always seems damned unproductive. Even if self-driving worked only on limited access freeways, it would ease a lot of frustration. I think it would make the experience of freeway driving much more like the experience of riding a train in a private compartment. The couple times I've done that, I found it to be fairly pleasant. Another problem that might arise. Will a self-driver work if one visits Canada, or Mexico? I guess it would depend on whether the system required a two-way communication network. If so, Canada might achieve that before the U.S. did. (I assume a bunch of U.S. states would declare this to be a muslim or communist conspiracy and refuse to buy into it.) - Frank Krygowski https://stevengoddard.files.wordpres...g-23-10-36.gif |
#83
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 9:16:40 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
Well, let's pretend that the "Smart Driverless Highway of the Future(tm)" is funded with our tax dollars, in order to provide a suitable arena for testing driverless vehicles. I want you to think about that for a minute. They cannot keep our present highway system in even descent repair and you think they are going to be able to built a "smart highway"? In California by the end of the decade the majority of roads will be unusable. |
#84
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On 10/10/2017 5:58 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 10/10/2017 1:44 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 10/10/2017 1:10 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 14:55:03 -0500, DougC wrote: I think eventually self-driving cars will be a lot more efficient than what we have now... Maybe.Â* Personally, I see some initial problems where a line of self-driving vehicles proceed at the speed of the slowest vehicle. Even if a passing algorithm is perfected, there will still be a tendency for similar speed vehicles to "clump" together in traffic. My guess(tm) is that the self-driving vehicle will be the equivalent of filling the highway with very conservative drivers, that follow every driving regulations, never go past the speed limit, and are courteous to other vehicles to the point of paranoia. Regarding "clumping": That can be beneficial on freeways. Especially if they communicate, self-driving cars can draft each other, forming a de facto train on the pavement. Car occupants could relax and read, work, look at scenery, whatever. Gas mileage (or electricity consumption) would be reduced. Yes, travel time might slightly increase, but the difference would be small. For freeways, it's easy to calculate. Driving 70 miles at 70 mph saves only about 5 minutes over driving at 65. And this scheme would remove one of my personal frustrations. I use cruise control on freeways, but it seems most drivers do not. (I guess a system with four buttons is just too complex.) Anyway, very frequently my car on cruise will approach a slower car, so I'll move left to pass. But as soon as the driver notices me, he's reminded that he can indeed drive a bit faster. So he speeds up, often matching my speed and keeping me stuck next to him in the left lane. In some cases, he'll speed up and pull ahead; then when he loses concentration he slows back down. Rinse and repeat. If everybody just locked into a convoy, that annoyance would go away. What? _five more minutes_?Â* That's just crazy talk! Well, I'll admit it's not crazy talk if Oprah is getting ready to start. For some people, that's a serious priority. -- - Frank Krygowski |
#85
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
For your reference, records indicate that
Jeff Liebermann wrote: I predict that there will be a sufficiently large number of undesirable incidents, which will inspire an ad-hoc wireless network scheme to enhance the system and take the load off the autonomous computer trying to identify various objects. The problem with “offloading” the identification is that you’re opening up the vehicles to even worse incidents. What if I just hack my bike transponder to report itself as a semi? You're getting ahead of me a little, but yes, it will shove it down our safety conscious throats, exactly like seat belts, crash resistant bumpers, dashboard padding, air bags, autie-lock brakes, extra tail lights, and other expensive safety features. The key difference is that all those features where part of the cost of the car itself. The idea of sticking transmitters on everything just to accommodate unsafe autonomous vehicles is a technical and economic non-starter. Do you really think that hot-rodders are about to accept that? Of course not. But I'm not talking about hot rod motorists. I'm talking about bicyclists, although I could lump the e-bike hot rodders into a similar class. Will cyclists accept computer control over their speed and direction in order to check into the roadway of the future? Your argument makes no sense. What is the reason classic cars would get a pass but bicycles would not? -- "Also . . . I can kill you with my brain." River Tam, Trash, Firefly |
#86
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 08:30:52 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski
wrote: On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 1:19:43 AM UTC-4, John B. wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 22:37:43 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 10/9/2017 3:13 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 11:30:40 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski wrote: I wasn't doubting that auto-cars will exist and become popular. I was doubting that the government will "shove them down our throats." I wonder whether they will ever become popular given that they quite obviously will be more expensive, perhaps much more expensive, I am reading numbers as large as $75,000 for Google's autonomous driving vehicle. Didn't SMS recently post something about buying a new car? I seem to remember numbers in the range of a third of that value. I imagine you're right, that in the short term these things will be expensive. But I expect that long term the price difference will be greatly reduced. (I imagine the phone in my pocket would have been worth ten thousand dollars 10 years ago, if it existed at all.) Maybe. But the cost of electric cars is still a bit frightening. However I do read that they qualify for some sort of government pay back scheme in the U.S. Another point is battery replacement cost, from what I read an individual that drives everyday may be looking at a battery change in as little as 5 years. But what do you get for this money? After all probably everyone reading this is capable of driving an automobile so what advantage does this, rather expensive, self-driver provide? Well: To my astonishment, I find that I'm driving long distances much more often since I retired. It's not just retirement that influenced that (although it enabled it); there have been family matters that have arisen, new obligations and avocations, different circles of friends, etc. But driving an hour each way is now far, far too common. And sitting behind a steering wheel always seems damned unproductive. :-) Well, when we are in Phuket it is about a 1.25 - 1.5 hour drive to town in today's traffic. I find that I can do all sorts of planning and designing during the drive :-) Even if self-driving worked only on limited access freeways, it would ease a lot of frustration. I think it would make the experience of freeway driving much more like the experience of riding a train in a private compartment. The couple times I've done that, I found it to be fairly pleasant. I was thinking about the subject last night before I dozed off and the question popped up. At the moment (from what I read) people drive as much as 20 mph faster then the posted speed limit. How is that going to work in the robot car? Will it be possible to order the robot to break the law or will traffic move at the legal speed? And red light drag racing would obviously be right out the door too :-) Another problem that might arise. Will a self-driver work if one visits Canada, or Mexico? I guess it would depend on whether the system required a two-way communication network. If so, Canada might achieve that before the U.S. did. (I assume a bunch of U.S. states would declare this to be a muslim or communist conspiracy and refuse to buy into it.) - Frank Krygowski -- Cheers, John B. |
#87
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 14:15:30 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote: On 10/10/2017 12:16 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 22:37:43 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: I wasn't doubting that auto-cars will exist and become popular. I was doubting that the government will "shove them down our throats." Well, let's pretend that the "Smart Driverless Highway of the Future(tm)" is funded with our tax dollars, in order to provide a suitable arena for testing driverless vehicles. But they're testing these things now on ordinary streets. They're attempting to make the cars, not the highway, "smart." Which brings up the problem of "who do you sue"? After all it the auto is self controlled you obviously can't sue the bloke sitting there staring at his hand phone and the car makers are going to have legions of extremely highly paid legal "consultants". -- Cheers, John B. |
#88
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On 10/11/2017 1:40 AM, John B. wrote:
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 08:30:52 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski wrote: On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 1:19:43 AM UTC-4, John B. wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 22:37:43 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 10/9/2017 3:13 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 11:30:40 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski wrote: I wasn't doubting that auto-cars will exist and become popular. I was doubting that the government will "shove them down our throats." I wonder whether they will ever become popular given that they quite obviously will be more expensive, perhaps much more expensive, I am reading numbers as large as $75,000 for Google's autonomous driving vehicle. Didn't SMS recently post something about buying a new car? I seem to remember numbers in the range of a third of that value. I imagine you're right, that in the short term these things will be expensive. But I expect that long term the price difference will be greatly reduced. (I imagine the phone in my pocket would have been worth ten thousand dollars 10 years ago, if it existed at all.) Maybe. But the cost of electric cars is still a bit frightening. However I do read that they qualify for some sort of government pay back scheme in the U.S. Another point is battery replacement cost, from what I read an individual that drives everyday may be looking at a battery change in as little as 5 years. But what do you get for this money? After all probably everyone reading this is capable of driving an automobile so what advantage does this, rather expensive, self-driver provide? Well: To my astonishment, I find that I'm driving long distances much more often since I retired. It's not just retirement that influenced that (although it enabled it); there have been family matters that have arisen, new obligations and avocations, different circles of friends, etc. But driving an hour each way is now far, far too common. And sitting behind a steering wheel always seems damned unproductive. :-) Well, when we are in Phuket it is about a 1.25 - 1.5 hour drive to town in today's traffic. I find that I can do all sorts of planning and designing during the drive :-) Even if self-driving worked only on limited access freeways, it would ease a lot of frustration. I think it would make the experience of freeway driving much more like the experience of riding a train in a private compartment. The couple times I've done that, I found it to be fairly pleasant. I was thinking about the subject last night before I dozed off and the question popped up. At the moment (from what I read) people drive as much as 20 mph faster then the posted speed limit. How is that going to work in the robot car? Will it be possible to order the robot to break the law or will traffic move at the legal speed? And red light drag racing would obviously be right out the door too :-) Another problem that might arise. Will a self-driver work if one visits Canada, or Mexico? I guess it would depend on whether the system required a two-way communication network. If so, Canada might achieve that before the U.S. did. (I assume a bunch of U.S. states would declare this to be a muslim or communist conspiracy and refuse to buy into it.) - Frank Krygowski -- Cheers, John B. Red light drag racing? IME you punch it when the light turns green. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
#89
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On 10/11/2017 2:40 AM, John B. wrote:
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 08:30:52 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski wrote: On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 1:19:43 AM UTC-4, John B. wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 22:37:43 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 10/9/2017 3:13 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Mon, 9 Oct 2017 11:30:40 -0700 (PDT), Frank Krygowski wrote: I wasn't doubting that auto-cars will exist and become popular. I was doubting that the government will "shove them down our throats." I wonder whether they will ever become popular given that they quite obviously will be more expensive, perhaps much more expensive, I am reading numbers as large as $75,000 for Google's autonomous driving vehicle. Didn't SMS recently post something about buying a new car? I seem to remember numbers in the range of a third of that value. I imagine you're right, that in the short term these things will be expensive. But I expect that long term the price difference will be greatly reduced. (I imagine the phone in my pocket would have been worth ten thousand dollars 10 years ago, if it existed at all.) Maybe. But the cost of electric cars is still a bit frightening. However I do read that they qualify for some sort of government pay back scheme in the U.S. Another point is battery replacement cost, from what I read an individual that drives everyday may be looking at a battery change in as little as 5 years. I know several people who own hybrid cars, plus one guy who owns an all-electric Nissan Leaf. What I've heard: The dominant model is the Toyota Prius. It seems Prius battery life has been much better than anticipated; they're going way over 100,000 miles. One guy I know has a hybrid Honda Civic. He lives in a hot southern state. After something like seven years, his battery capacity dropped terribly. IIRC, there was some sort of recall for recalibration of software, but he's still very dissatisfied. Another guy, until very recently, owned a Honda Insight, the very first hybrid I'd ever heard about. It's a tiny, super-aero two seater. He bought his used, it had some electrical/battery problems, and Honda astonishingly replaced the entire battery pack and some wiring for free. However, I wouldn't count on that ever happening again. It didn't with that Civic owner. But the battery packs do have limited life, even if that limit is very long. Replacement is very expensive. So when gauging the long term cost of these cars, it would be good to know the battery lifetime. It might be wise to sell it or trade it in before the battery's due to crap out (if you're that kind of person), and it might be good to research the battery issue heavily before you buy one that's used. Even if self-driving worked only on limited access freeways, it would ease a lot of frustration. I think it would make the experience of freeway driving much more like the experience of riding a train in a private compartment. The couple times I've done that, I found it to be fairly pleasant. I was thinking about the subject last night before I dozed off and the question popped up. At the moment (from what I read) people drive as much as 20 mph faster then the posted speed limit. How is that going to work in the robot car? Will it be possible to order the robot to break the law or will traffic move at the legal speed? IME, seeing someone 20 mph over the limit is pretty rare. Lots of people seem to shoot for 2 to 5 over the limit, though. I'm sure that the auto-cars will be limited to the limit (duh!). Again, it really doesn't add much time to a typical drive. To divert into psychology: Somehow, being in a car triggers urges to "get to the front" or "get past this guy." The slightly more practical justification is "I don't want to be slowed down." But as we all know, it's not unusual to have a motorist race to pass a bicyclist, then end up sitting at the same red light. The even more stupid freeway example is when a construction project reduces everything to one lane. Passing is impossible, traffic might be lined up for a mile ahead, yet some dolts will tailgate and even honk horns if you're not near the rear bumper of the car in front of you. Driving makes many people insane. -- - Frank Krygowski |
#90
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DRIVERLESS ELECTRIC CARS
On 10/11/2017 11:26 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
Another guy, until very recently, owned a Honda Insight, the very first hybrid I'd ever heard about. It's a tiny, super-aero two seater. He bought his used, it had some electrical/battery problems, and Honda astonishingly replaced the entire battery pack and some wiring for free. However, I wouldn't count on that ever happening again. It didn't with that Civic owner. Oops. Turns out it wasn't free, but he felt it was very inexpensive and a real bargain. They did not charge him for the labor, and he felt he ended up with a car that was very reliable and very inexpensive to run for a very low price. -- - Frank Krygowski |
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