Fun with exponents

On 5/25/2020 6:41 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:
On Mon, 25 May 2020 12:09:29 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On 5/24/2020 9:24 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

I play piano and keyboard synthesizer, but somewhere along the line, I
forgot to learn how to read music. So, I play by ear and don't need
music paper.

I play by ear too, but I find that sheet music is a useful resource, if
only for reminders of how a tune starts. Give me the first measure or
two (the "incipits") and I'm good to go on many, many tunes. But I have
"the dots" for hundreds stored in an app on my phone. I'm a competent
reader.

But in essence don't most musicians "play by ear" at least in one
sense of the word? My brother, while in collage was striving to become
a concert pianist (he never made it) and I remember him playing a
piece of music over and over and over, literally for hours at a time,
until he could play it the way he wanted it to sound.

It varies tremendously, depending on the individual and the type of
music. It may depend partly on the instrument as well.

I play several string and woodwind instruments, but mostly simple music
just for fun - folk or traditional tunes from the British Isles,
Appalachia, New England, Canada plus some early music, etc. Back in my
early years, I did play "serious" music - clarinet concertos etc.

I can't sight read classical guitar or its folky cousin, fingerpicking
guitar pieces. There are too choices of string and fret to play any
particular note, and if you use the wrong position you find yourself
unable to get to the next phrase. (There are notations to cover that,
but unlike the notes themselves, I can't digest those quickly enough.)
But things like clarinet, recorder, tin whistle, flute usually have just
one choice of fingering. The same is true of "fiddle," although if you
call it a "violin" you're expected to be able to play in many different
positions up the neck.

But there are many different types of skill. I was once playing for a
madrigal dinner as part of a recorder consort. We played carefully
arranged pieces as part of the actual performance, but the dinner music
portion of the evening was unscripted. The recorders, the harpsichord,
the harp, etc. just took turns doing whatever period pieces they chose,
to add relaxed variety.

At one point, the harpist began a lovely piece by O'Carolan that I was
familiar with, so I walked over and indicated by gestures that I'd like
to join in. The harpist nodded, so I played along, doing some melody,
some harmony.

Afterwards, the harpsichordist asked if I really did that spontaneously.
When I said of course I did, she expressed some jealousy. Despite being
well known in our area as a professional accompanist, she said she can't
play anything that's not on the page in front of her.

Which reminds me of a book I once read: "How To Play Piano Despite Years
of Lessons."

--
- Frank Krygowski

On 5/25/2020 8:10 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 2:28:09 PM UTC-7, wrote:
On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 1:51:11 PM UTC-7, jbeattie wrote:
On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 1:11:38 PM UTC-7, wrote:
On Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 5:34:22 PM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
On Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 6:46:11 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 8:45:02 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/24/2020 11:36 AM, wrote:

I will offer you proof positive that the covid-19 pandemic is a hoax.

Don't offer it here, Tom. We're not worthy of your unique wisdome. Get
out and tell the world!

Speak for yourself, Franki-boy. You're not the gate-keeper on RBT. Just in case you're being stupid again, it means you don't decide who can be a member.

You clearly haven't spent enough time marching around with your sign on
a stick. Get to it, man!

You should leave the snark at home. You have zero talent for repartee, in fact zero talent for anything useful. All we can see is a pompous pig's bladder full of emptiness.

--
- Frank Krygowski

Somehow the data from the CDC themselves doesn't seem to make it through that moronic brain of yours. No wonder you were a teacher and not a real engineer. Facts cannot penetrate your head.

Actually, Tom, this is an amusing exchange, considering all the times that the limp-brain Krygowski has claimed to be a statistical maven -- and been caught out being stupid or simply lying.

It you look at the chart showing the rise in covid-19 cases you do not see any corresponding rise in overall deaths. That is because there weren't any. Or so slight as to be statistically insignificant. And speaking of insignificant it is time for you to post more of your utter ignorance.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nchs-data.html

That's an interesting graph that fully bears out your conclusion. Frank-boy and the other clowns whose mode of persuasion is to deny everything you say should check the rather short blue line to the right of the steeply rising red line. Perhaps the clowns denying the truth mistake the percentages for numbers: yo, clowns, on the blue lines are numbers of total deaths, the rest are percentages.

I understand that when you are a piece of **** you simply cannot help yourself from acting like a piece of ****. Have a good death. Soon.

Nah, I want Franki-boy Kygowski to have a long miserable life. He's a fine example of what I do to bullies and scum, such a coward that instead of engaging with me he pretends not to read my posts. If Franki-boy is what passes for a "Professor" in Youngstown, God help Ohio.

I was paid more in a year for making statistics sing than Franki-boy earned in a lifetime, but any freshman taking a stats filler class can interpret such a simple graph. That Franki-boy can't read that simple graph right is an indisputable final judgement on his inability to grasp the meaning of statistics.

I took a hard ride yesterday that wasn't that long. Only 33 miles but with a lot of hard climbing over 9%. And I wasn't feeling all that chipper.

Coming back I took a long cut to take in a little more climbing and that dropped down into a high-priced upper middle class neighborhood. In a couple of places are older smaller homes that people that really didn't have the money to live there could squeeze in if they were willing to work overtime to make the payments and allow their kids to go to better schools with less chance of being beat up by bullies and punks.

As I came down one of the streets there were three sheriff's cars there and they had just apparently stopped one poor man from committing suicide. He was losing his home and couldn't afford to put food on the table. This man was screaming like a tortured baby. I cannot tell you the effect it had on me. What would he do in the near future? What could I possibly do for this poor tortured soul.

Go home and let the professionals work.


This is the effects of Newson's lockdown. People all over this state have now gone through their entire life savings

Why I can hope for is that Ohio declares bankruptcy and that Frank no longer gets his pension. Let's leave him like that for the next 10 years.

Tom, I could easily live for ten years with no pension income. It
wouldn't affect my lifestyle in the least. At worst, it might affect the
amount I give to charity.


When they say that the suicide rate is going to double I can now believe after hearing that painful cry. Far better that it was from Frank than a 35 year old man.

Are you sure didn't imagine this between doses of Haldol? https://www.nclc.org/issues/foreclos...and-stays.html The courts are not hearing judicial foreclosure cases in California. https://www.fresnobee.com/fresnoland...241845456.html

And do you know how long it takes to do a non-judicial foreclose in California? Even if the guy was getting foreclosed, the default probably occurred many months ago. Read this: https://www.borowitzclark.com/califo...sure-timeline/ Did Governor Newsom go back in time and ruin this guy's life? I thought only Governor Schwarzenegger could time travel. Not that the shut down isn't causing economic hardship, but you could imagine a more believable story of COVID-19 woe.

-- Jay Beattie

Is there even a mind inside of your head? You remind me of my brother-in-law. He was a lawyer and a good one by trade and the worlds biggest asshole by virtue.

This guy wasn't being foreclosed you blockhead. He was looking forward to it with his place of employment gone and no employment in sight, his savings almost exhausted and absolutely no way to redeem what he thought was his clear path to success.

WTF, was the guy standing there delivering a soliloquy? Or did the voices tell you all of this? None of this makes sense -- if he has a house in a decent neighborhood in the Bay Area, he is probably among the work-from-home-capable majority. If he is a low wage earner, then he should be getting a stimulus check and massive unemployment benefits -- benefits that are so generous it will be difficult to get employees back when businesses re-open part time. If his life is so dire, it is more likely that he -- like me -- is a business owner, assuming any of this is true. If he got a delinquency notice, he has a year to figure out how to avoid a foreclosure. I got terms from Freddie Mac, and my business got Cares Act money for payroll. We haven't laid anyone off.

Unlike you, for years I was the guy picking these people up -- with cops and often with guys in white coats and tennis shoes with big syringes of Thorazine. Those looking for death-by-cop don't stand around discussing their finances, and the suicidal ones don't give speeches, not in my experience. They leave notes. Did you find any notes?

Your story sounds like a bad TV melodrama.

His story bears a bit of resemblance to the time I was talking about the
rarity of stout tree branches hanging down at precisely the height of a
cyclist's head, and Tom came in here reporting he just got concussed by
one.

His fantasies are carefully timed to act as "proof" of whatever the hell
he hallucinated lately. But the tales are all anecdotes lacking the
actual evidence that would prove his brilliance to the world.

Which to me is clear indication there is no brilliance. Just bitter,
bitter fantasies.


--
- Frank Krygowski

On Mon, 25 May 2020 13:43:42 -0700, cyclintom wrote:

On Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 11:44:12 PM UTC-7, news18 wrote:

Sometime in the next two weeks, I plan to "consolidate" my bicycle
parts and pieces collection into some arrangement where I can
actually find things. When moving things around last week, I
overloaded my plastic toolbox, which dumped all the parts on the
floor when the toolbox handle broke and fell off.

That is the problem with plastic, it has a definite shortish life and
dropping a plastic tub full of bicycle bits can usually result in
sweeping up plastic bits with the parts.

Because you do not know how to select tool boxes do not blame plastic. I
have plastic tool boxes for every one of my hobbies down to sailboat
repair and my car toolset with 1/4", 3/8ths" and 1/2 inch socket sets,
all of the heavy open end and box wrenches and all the way down to
torque wrenches and complete screwdriver sets. Most of these boxes weigh
near or over 100 lbs (that's 45 Kilos to Diggers) and I have never
broken one.


Tomm7y, thank you for agreeing with me that plastic has a shortage life
span. When is reuse various plastic containers after their inital design
use, I do not expect them to llast for my life time.

The plastic plant guards I constrct from cutting the top and bottom of
2litre plastic milk bottles. These are crafted from our normal household
waste stream and serve a hiatus of one or a few years until they rejoin
the recyclable items waste bin.

The particuar plastic container that stores the majority of my collection
of bicycle parts are plastic ice cream tubs of about the 4l(1gal?) size
and some could have given service for up to 30 year. Again, another free
container that provided service far beyond its life time. So , if one
slips off the shelf or out of my hands and a load of crank axles crashes
to the garage floor, it really is of no loss if the agged plastic ice
cream container disintegrates.

It certainly given me very economical and exceedingly efficent service
for the storage of bicycle parts. A quick eyeball says I have about
fifteen in stacks of two-three high storing stuff like axles, bearing,
cables, chain, reflectors, brake assemblies, etc, etc.

Now, your suggestin is that I should instead purchased, at cost the
equivalent on plastic tool bnoxes. Really. what a compete waste of money
as there is no guarantted they would last as long and npt doo the same if
they were the same age.

As to carrying 100 lbs, there are very few pastic containers that will do
that for a long WORKING life. Are you familiary with plastic Fish Crates,
the exact one you see in all the movies and dumentairies showing
fishermen/women unloadinf theit catch in bulk. About 30 years ago, we
purchased about a dozn of those and their main purpose was mostly to
carry foodstuffs, when we did catering for large groups on bicycle rides
and other mass community activites. Of ciurse they were useful for
washing the dogs, mixing soil, etc, etc over time. Only four of those
dozen remain in tact with our major splits.

As to tool boxes, I carry all tools in metal tool boxes and I've always
found commercial sets to be a major waste of money. half the set never
gets used and sometime you want four of the one size & type spanner.

Anyway, each to their own.

On Mon, 25 May 2020 13:34:26 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

Here they are again: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nchs-data.html
Now if you look at it the total death rates for this year are about 95% of what they were last year.
If you look at the end of this graph the suddenly rising red line is the supposed covid-19 death rates.

Actually, I can't see anything because the red COVID-19 line spans
only about 3 vertical blue lines. However, the graph does support
your contentions. If you use a magnifying glass to look at the last
vertical blue line (total deaths), where the red line (COVID-19
deaths) hides the blue lines, you might notice that the very last
vertical blue line is well below the expected value if total death
remain unchanged. This could be due to your conspiracy theory, or it
could be due to the usual reporting delays. Notice that the graph is
dated April 10, about 5 weeks ago. Or, all this could be due to CDC
fudging the numbers, interference by the states in reporting COVID-19
fatalities, government meddling, etc. I mentioned a few of these in
one of my other postings in this thread. There's plenty of recent
data available that might be used to demonstrate your conspiracy
theory that doesn't have the important numbers crunched into a tiny
part of the graph. Could you provide something that doesn't require a
magnifier to visualize?

Incidentally, a good question to ask is why did the CDC 5 years of
historical data on a graph where the only area of interest might be
the last few months? Also, why did they use blue vertical bars when a
simple line following the peaks would have been much easier to read?
Probably another conspiracy to hide the "truth" from the GUM (great
unwashed masses).

But you see NO rise in the total death rates.

Sigh. I guess I have to expand the graph a little. See:
http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/crud/CDC-NCHS-Mortality-Rate-Expanded.jpg
That's an expanded view of the most recent part of the graph. Sorry
about the change in colors. I'll explain if anyone really cares.
Notice that the most recent vertical bar is April 3. Connecting the
dots between the peaks of the vertical lines shows a definite decrease
in overall deaths, which doesn't exactly support your conspiracy
theory. If COVID-19 added to the "normal" death toll, then I would
expect the vertical lines to be much higher. If the total deaths were
unchanged, as you contend, I would expect the vertical lines to be in
line with the rest of the previous vertical lines, which they are not.
If the CDC screwed up, and subtracted COVID-19 deaths from the total,
I would expect something similar to what I'm seeing.

Anyway, the graph is garbage and nearly useless. Please find a
different graph, preferably from an independent organization that is
not directly influenced by the Trump administration, and that shows
the total deaths to be constant. I'm patient and will wait for your
numbers.

If you can't find anything, or trust the CDC, try the graph on this
page:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
On the dashboard select "Excess deaths with and without COVID-19" and
click "Update Dashboard".

Why is this? Because the Federal Government gives a $37,000 subsidy
for each reported covid-19 death reported.

$37,000 per patient won't even begin to cover the cost of an uninsured
hospital fatality after a few days in ICU on a respirator. Even with
prices fixed by Medicare, the cost to the hospital will be much more.

Also, please fix your one and only useful number:
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/
Q: Are hospitals inflating the number of COVID-19 cases
and deaths so they can be paid more?
A: Recent legislation pays hospitals higher Medicare rates
for COVID-19 patients and treatment, but there is no
evidence of fraudulent reporting.

Incidentally, in 2018, the CDC reported that there were 2.8 million
deaths in the US from all causes or:
2.8 million / 365 = 7,700 deaths per day
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm
So far, the US has had 98,000 deaths attributable to COVID-19 starting
on approximately Mar 18 according to the JHU dashboard.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Today is May 25 which is 69 days since the counting started. So far,
the increase has been roughly linear, so that's an average of:
98,000 / 69 = 1,420 deaths per day
or:
1,420 * 365 = 518,000 deaths (projected) per year
if things remain unchanged. If all the COVID-19 deaths were unique
and not due data manipulation, I would expect to see an average
increase of:
518,000 / 2,800,000 = 19%
in the total death rate by Mar 2021. Sadly, it might come to that if
things remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the deaths from COVID-19 will be
barely visible above the normal death count (as in the CDC graph I
cited above).


--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

On Mon, 25 May 2020 06:44:10 -0000 (UTC), news18
wrote:

That is the problem with plastic, it has a definite shortish life and
dropping a plastic tub full of bicycle bits can usually result in
sweeping up plastic bits with the parts.

I don't think this problem was totally the fault of the plastic. My
guess(tm) is the design of the handle and the age of the box were
contributory.

It's a Fenwick 1080 fishing tackle box:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/324176783055
The handle broke in this manner.
http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/crud/Fenwick%201080%20handle.jpg

The box was not overloaded. I'm not certain of the age, but my guess
is at least 40 years old.

Notice that the design of the swivel pin projecting from the handle.
The conical taper is used to force the handle against the mating holes
in the cover. It's clever, but has a rather nasty stress riser due to
the lack of a chamfer. If the handle slides sideways for any reason,
excess strain is placed on the conical pin. A reinforcing pin through
each conical swivel pin might have helped. I'll probably patch it
together with a steel shaft in place of the two conical pins.


--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 12:51:52 AM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

Incidentally, in 2018, the CDC reported that there were 2.8 million
deaths in the US from all causes or:
2.8 million / 365 = 7,700 deaths per day
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm
So far, the US has had 98,000 deaths attributable to COVID-19 starting
on approximately Mar 18 according to the JHU dashboard.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Today is May 25 which is 69 days since the counting started. So far,
the increase has been roughly linear, so that's an average of:
98,000 / 69 = 1,420 deaths per day
or:
1,420 * 365 = 518,000 deaths (projected) per year
if things remain unchanged. If all the COVID-19 deaths were unique
and not due data manipulation, I would expect to see an average
increase of:
518,000 / 2,800,000 = 19%
in the total death rate by Mar 2021. Sadly, it might come to that if
things remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the deaths from COVID-19 will be
barely visible above the normal death count (as in the CDC graph I
cited above).


--
Jeff Liebermann

Concerning your statement "increase of: 518,000 / 2,800,000 = 19% in the total death rate by Mar 2021." I doubt that will occur due to the behavior change caused by Covid-19. Half the country or more is NOT commuting to work each day. So traffic deaths will be far less this year. Google says 1..25 million people, 3287 per day, die from auto accidents each year. The 1420 people dying each day from Covid-19 is actually causing a reduction in overall death because many of the 3287 auto deaths each day do not occur. And the change in behavior with social distancing is causing people to not met and congregate. So less likely for people to kill each other when they meet. Another positive. Suicides are likely higher. But nine months from now births will likely be much higher due to the forced co-habitation. And flu and other transmittable diseases may be less this year due to the social distancing. Lot of negatives with Covid-19, but there are a few positives too.

Am 25.05.2020 um 23:56 schrieb Andre Jute:
Why is it so hard for you guys to admit that Tom is right? What that
graph shows is a lower than normal death rate (the blue vertical
lines, which are summed individual fatalities, a count in which we
can have near perfect confidence), with a substitution of the
presumptive causes (the red line which is a percentage, in which we
can by the admissions of the people who concocted it have very
moderate confidence).

It's quite easy for me to admit that as of April 10, there was no
massive "death by Covid" problem in the USA yet.
We have seen a very similar pattern in Europe:
* Due to lockdown, the total fatality rate came down by about 5% at the
time the Covid victims lay in hospital but were not dying yet.
* Due to the lockdown, the severity of the Influenza season was less
severe than the three seasons before.

One difference to Europe is that in USA, there were massively lacking
capacities for Corona testing, so mayn early Corona victims were dying
of Corona symptoms without being diagnosed for Corona.

Read the graph qua graph, not through the filter of what you think
you know, and what Tom says makes perfect sense, including the
fiscally-inspired virus body-count inflation he mentions.
This graph is giving meaningful information as of April 10, just before
the **** hit the pan. Tom prefers not to look at the continuation data
from late April or May because this would destroy his beliefs.

On Mon, 25 May 2020 22:51:44 -0700, Jeff Liebermann
wrote:

If you can't find anything, or trust the CDC, try the graph on this
page:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
On the dashboard select "Excess deaths with and without COVID-19" and
click "Update Dashboard".

More graphs:

CDC Observed and Excess Deaths:
https://public.tableau.com/profile/benjamin.du#!/vizhome/CDCObservedandExcessDeaths/ObservedandExcessDeaths
55,549 - 66,012 Excess Deaths since Feb.
For California, it's:
1,324 - 3,345 Excess Deaths sinc Feb.

US Excess Deaths and COVID-19 Deaths:
https://public.tableau.com/profile/allen.perry#!/vizhome/USExcessDeathsandUSCOVID-19Deaths/Sheet1

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 10:51:52 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Mon, 25 May 2020 13:34:26 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

Here they are again: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nchs-data.html
Now if you look at it the total death rates for this year are about 95% of what they were last year.
If you look at the end of this graph the suddenly rising red line is the supposed covid-19 death rates.

Actually, I can't see anything because the red COVID-19 line spans
only about 3 vertical blue lines. However, the graph does support
your contentions. If you use a magnifying glass to look at the last
vertical blue line (total deaths), where the red line (COVID-19
deaths) hides the blue lines, you might notice that the very last
vertical blue line is well below the expected value if total death
remain unchanged. This could be due to your conspiracy theory, or it
could be due to the usual reporting delays. Notice that the graph is
dated April 10, about 5 weeks ago. Or, all this could be due to CDC
fudging the numbers, interference by the states in reporting COVID-19
fatalities, government meddling, etc. I mentioned a few of these in
one of my other postings in this thread. There's plenty of recent
data available that might be used to demonstrate your conspiracy
theory that doesn't have the important numbers crunched into a tiny
part of the graph. Could you provide something that doesn't require a
magnifier to visualize?

Incidentally, a good question to ask is why did the CDC 5 years of
historical data on a graph where the only area of interest might be
the last few months? Also, why did they use blue vertical bars when a
simple line following the peaks would have been much easier to read?
Probably another conspiracy to hide the "truth" from the GUM (great
unwashed masses).

But you see NO rise in the total death rates.

Sigh. I guess I have to expand the graph a little. See:
http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/crud/CDC-NCHS-Mortality-Rate-Expanded.jpg
That's an expanded view of the most recent part of the graph. Sorry
about the change in colors. I'll explain if anyone really cares.
Notice that the most recent vertical bar is April 3. Connecting the
dots between the peaks of the vertical lines shows a definite decrease
in overall deaths, which doesn't exactly support your conspiracy
theory. If COVID-19 added to the "normal" death toll, then I would
expect the vertical lines to be much higher. If the total deaths were
unchanged, as you contend, I would expect the vertical lines to be in
line with the rest of the previous vertical lines, which they are not.
If the CDC screwed up, and subtracted COVID-19 deaths from the total,
I would expect something similar to what I'm seeing.

Anyway, the graph is garbage and nearly useless. Please find a
different graph, preferably from an independent organization that is
not directly influenced by the Trump administration, and that shows
the total deaths to be constant. I'm patient and will wait for your
numbers.

If you can't find anything, or trust the CDC, try the graph on this
page:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
On the dashboard select "Excess deaths with and without COVID-19" and
click "Update Dashboard".

Why is this? Because the Federal Government gives a $37,000 subsidy
for each reported covid-19 death reported.

$37,000 per patient won't even begin to cover the cost of an uninsured
hospital fatality after a few days in ICU on a respirator. Even with
prices fixed by Medicare, the cost to the hospital will be much more.

Also, please fix your one and only useful number:
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/
Q: Are hospitals inflating the number of COVID-19 cases
and deaths so they can be paid more?
A: Recent legislation pays hospitals higher Medicare rates
for COVID-19 patients and treatment, but there is no
evidence of fraudulent reporting.

Incidentally, in 2018, the CDC reported that there were 2.8 million
deaths in the US from all causes or:
2.8 million / 365 = 7,700 deaths per day
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm
So far, the US has had 98,000 deaths attributable to COVID-19 starting
on approximately Mar 18 according to the JHU dashboard.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Today is May 25 which is 69 days since the counting started. So far,
the increase has been roughly linear, so that's an average of:
98,000 / 69 = 1,420 deaths per day
or:
1,420 * 365 = 518,000 deaths (projected) per year
if things remain unchanged. If all the COVID-19 deaths were unique
and not due data manipulation, I would expect to see an average
increase of:
518,000 / 2,800,000 = 19%
in the total death rate by Mar 2021. Sadly, it might come to that if
things remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the deaths from COVID-19 will be
barely visible above the normal death count (as in the CDC graph I
cited above).

I suppose there's no point in discussing it. The deaths from flu, pneumonia, and other reasons not listed are directly from death certificates. The blue vertical lines are nothing more than the additive of the total deaths that week.

But you may go about your day thinking that it will come in the future and not when they occur. Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.

On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 11:19:14 PM UTC-7, wrote:
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 12:51:52 AM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

Incidentally, in 2018, the CDC reported that there were 2.8 million
deaths in the US from all causes or:
2.8 million / 365 = 7,700 deaths per day
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm
So far, the US has had 98,000 deaths attributable to COVID-19 starting
on approximately Mar 18 according to the JHU dashboard.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Today is May 25 which is 69 days since the counting started. So far,
the increase has been roughly linear, so that's an average of:
98,000 / 69 = 1,420 deaths per day
or:
1,420 * 365 = 518,000 deaths (projected) per year
if things remain unchanged. If all the COVID-19 deaths were unique
and not due data manipulation, I would expect to see an average
increase of:
518,000 / 2,800,000 = 19%
in the total death rate by Mar 2021. Sadly, it might come to that if
things remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the deaths from COVID-19 will be
barely visible above the normal death count (as in the CDC graph I
cited above).


--
Jeff Liebermann

Concerning your statement "increase of: 518,000 / 2,800,000 = 19% in the total death rate by Mar 2021." I doubt that will occur due to the behavior change caused by Covid-19. Half the country or more is NOT commuting to work each day. So traffic deaths will be far less this year. Google says 1.25 million people, 3287 per day, die from auto accidents each year. The 1420 people dying each day from Covid-19 is actually causing a reduction in overall death because many of the 3287 auto deaths each day do not occur. And the change in behavior with social distancing is causing people to not met and congregate. So less likely for people to kill each other when they meet. Another positive. Suicides are likely higher. But nine months from now births will likely be much higher due to the forced co-habitation. And flu and other transmittable diseases may be less this year due to the social distancing. Lot of negatives with Covid-19, but there are a few positives too.

As Jay wanted to argue about, suicide rates are way up. In the US, suicide is almost the same rate as death by car wreck (and is often a form of suicide). I mentioned that before - no doubt car wrecks are down (but I'd warrant a whole lot less than you might think since the cars that are on the more open roads are driving at incredible speeds.) But slamming the door to peoples futures as this has done has very, very serious consequences.

https://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/suicide/index.html

Unfortunately that doesn't show short term growth but psychiatrists are saying that a doubling of the rate is not unexpected.