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  #61  
Old May 26th 20, 04:30 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
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Default Fun with exponents

On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 11:27:15 PM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 25.05.2020 um 23:56 schrieb Andre Jute:
Why is it so hard for you guys to admit that Tom is right? What that
graph shows is a lower than normal death rate (the blue vertical
lines, which are summed individual fatalities, a count in which we
can have near perfect confidence), with a substitution of the
presumptive causes (the red line which is a percentage, in which we
can by the admissions of the people who concocted it have very
moderate confidence).


It's quite easy for me to admit that as of April 10, there was no
massive "death by Covid" problem in the USA yet.
We have seen a very similar pattern in Europe:
* Due to lockdown, the total fatality rate came down by about 5% at the
time the Covid victims lay in hospital but were not dying yet.
* Due to the lockdown, the severity of the Influenza season was less
severe than the three seasons before.

One difference to Europe is that in USA, there were massively lacking
capacities for Corona testing, so mayn early Corona victims were dying
of Corona symptoms without being diagnosed for Corona.

Read the graph qua graph, not through the filter of what you think
you know, and what Tom says makes perfect sense, including the
fiscally-inspired virus body-count inflation he mentions.

This graph is giving meaningful information as of April 10, just before
the **** hit the pan. Tom prefers not to look at the continuation data
from late April or May because this would destroy his beliefs.


Rolf, quite the opposite was occurring, because there weren't testing kits available very often the illness was diagnosed on the weight of symptoms only. X-ray of the chest of a person with pneumonia and covid-19 are almost identical but with covid-19 being the disease du jour it could be improperly diagnosed. Putting a person on a ventilator is not a lightly done thing because of so few people put on a ventilator survive.

Also one of the treatments for pneumonia is cutting your chest open to drain pus formed from the bacterial infection out. Rather than pus a covid-19 patient has swelling which inhibits air passage into the lungs. If you don't drain a pneumonia victim he stands a very high chance of dying. And with a large number of people dying in a short period of time they don't have the capacity for a post-mortem which would properly identify CoD.

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about.

First he quite rightly said that a mask wouldn't prevent ingress or egress of a virus which is quite right and which any first year med student is supposed to know. Then he reversed himself that all should use masks and social distancing - again anyone that knows anything about viruses would know that can accomplish nothing. Or I should say that distancing usually works but the distances have to be much larger than they are ordering.

But coming from Fauci, suddenly it is like the brains on a large percentage of doctors turned off and they started recommending masks and social distancing.

Anyone that has observed the growth curve of diseases knows that you can have a linear growth curve or a non-linear growth curve which is dependent upon the method of contagion. Covid-19 has continuously be mischaracterized as being spread by touching surfaces. This has always been an unlikely form of transmission of viruses because of their size they tend to bury in the pores of surfaces and so are difficult to pick up on the next hand.

Instead, because of a linear growth curve it is obviously spread via droplets of exhaled breath containing the virus. This is a difficult method of transmission IN THE OPEN AIR. So what did they do? Tell people to stay at home and had everyone enclosing themselves in areas where the air can become saturated with the virus. Nursing homes and retirement communities in particular would be expected to be the hardest hit and indeed they were. A symptomless disease and no rapid method of testing makes it a given.

Covid-19 symptoms are so generalized that it can literally look like anything without an actual test kit (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...Fsymptoms.html)

The testing method used in Europe was VERY slow - it was to incubate a sample over a week until there were enough of the corona virus to identify under a microscope. This also meant that the technician must recognize covid-19 from any one of dozens of corona viruses.

We could question whether deaths were correctly identified and that could go either way. But as I said, the disease du jour almost always is used as an excuse.

The outstanding character of that chart is that pneumonia deaths remained constant. Flu deaths where recognized remained constant and covid-19 deaths shot up but total deaths did not. And this is what epidemiologists in the field were saying all along - the people who were victimized by this disease were those that would have died one way or another. They just had another cause of death marked on the death certificate.

While any death is a loss, you do not solve anything but taking improper steps and that is precisely what the state governors particularly in Democrat run states did. Practice fascism rather than medically sound judgement.

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  #62  
Old May 26th 20, 05:37 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Rolf Mantel[_2_]
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Posts: 267
Default Fun with exponents

Am 26.05.2020 um 17:30 schrieb :
On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 11:27:15 PM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 25.05.2020 um 23:56 schrieb Andre Jute:
Why is it so hard for you guys to admit that Tom is right? What
that graph shows is a lower than normal death rate (the blue
vertical lines, which are summed individual fatalities, a count
in which we can have near perfect confidence), with a
substitution of the presumptive causes (the red line which is a
percentage, in which we can by the admissions of the people who
concocted it have very moderate confidence).


It's quite easy for me to admit that as of April 10, there was no
massive "death by Covid" problem in the USA yet. We have seen a
very similar pattern in Europe: * Due to lockdown, the total
fatality rate came down by about 5% at the time the Covid victims
lay in hospital but were not dying yet. * Due to the lockdown, the
severity of the Influenza season was less severe than the three
seasons before.

One difference to Europe is that in USA, there were massively
lacking capacities for Corona testing, so mayn early Corona
victims were dying of Corona symptoms without being diagnosed for
Corona.

Read the graph qua graph, not through the filter of what you
think you know, and what Tom says makes perfect sense, including
the fiscally-inspired virus body-count inflation he mentions.

This graph is giving meaningful information as of April 10, just
before the **** hit the pan. Tom prefers not to look at the
continuation data from late April or May because this would
destroy his beliefs.


Rolf, quite the opposite was occurring, because there weren't
testing kits available very often the illness was diagnosed on the
weight of symptoms only. X-ray of the chest of a person with
pneumonia and covid-19 are almost identical but with covid-19 being
the disease du jour it could be improperly diagnosed. Putting a
person on a ventilator is not a lightly done thing because of so few
people put on a ventilator survive.


The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it removes
all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm a bit:
In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu, in Florida
or DC even weaker.
But in the US overall, the COVID-19 excess is around 70,000 compared to
15,000 at the 17-18 Flu.
You better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New Jeresy
where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City where the excess
reached 300% over normal.

  #63  
Old May 26th 20, 06:29 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Jeff Liebermann
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Posts: 4,018
Default Fun with exponents

On Tue, 26 May 2020 07:43:48 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

As Jay wanted to argue about, suicide rates are way up.
In the US, suicide is almost the same rate as death by
car wreck (and is often a form of suicide). I mentioned
that before - no doubt car wrecks are down (but I'd
warrant a whole lot less than you might think since
the cars that are on the more open roads are driving
at incredible speeds.) But slamming the door to peoples
futures as this has done has very, very serious consequences.

https://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/suicide/index.html

Just one tiny little problem. The few numbers on the above
"FactSheet" are from 1999 through 2016. Presumably, we didn't have a
COVID-19 problem four years ago. I'll leave it to you to find some
current numbers and trends. You could use the practice.

Well, I couldn't resist. See the graph at:
https://afsp.org/suicide-statistics/
which is current to Jan 2018. So, in 9 years, the suicide rate went
from 11.8 to 14.2/100,000 population which equals 0.012% to 0.014% for
an increase of 0.002% in 9 years. It's odd that the graph would start
in 2009 because I would expect a substantial increase in suicides
during the 2008 stock market collapse.

Unfortunately that doesn't show short term growth but
psychiatrists are saying that a doubling of the rate is
not unexpected.


Which psychiatrists published in which tabloids? Doubling the rate
over what baseline? You might actually be correct but it's difficult
to tell from your "proof" which more closely resembles an assertion.
There are psychiatrists who seek media attention. Perhaps 5G cellular
causes suicides? These daze, the only way to get media attention is
to make outrageous or "thought provoking" statements. Mundane
statements based on research and statistical probability don't seem to
qualify.

No bicycles were mentioned or harmed in the manufacture of this
article.

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D
http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
  #65  
Old May 26th 20, 07:11 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Jeff Liebermann
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 4,018
Default Fun with exponents

On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:37:24 +0200, Rolf Mantel
wrote:

The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it removes
all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm a bit:
In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu, in Florida
or DC even weaker.
But in the US overall, the COVID-19 excess is around 70,000 compared to
15,000 at the 17-18 Flu.
You better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New Jeresy
where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City where the excess
reached 300% over normal.


Look again. NYC was about 600% above normal.
At the same time, NY State was about 125% above normal.

New York seem to be the worst. Go thee unto the aforementioned URL.
Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19
- Update Dashboard
Select Jurisdiction - New York
The excess deaths are in dark blue. Drag the mouse over the peak and
it will show about 125% excess deaths.

However, that's for New York State with New York City excluded from
the data. The "Figure Notes" below the graph proclaims:
"Data for New York excludes New York City"
So NYC is tabulated separately.
Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19
- Update Dashboard
Select Jurisdiction - New York City
Drag the mouse over the peak. The info box shows excess deaths at
596.7% to 649.5%.





--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D
http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
  #66  
Old May 26th 20, 11:07 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
[email protected]
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Posts: 884
Default Fun with exponents

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 9:37:27 AM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 26.05.2020 um 17:30 schrieb :
On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 11:27:15 PM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 25.05.2020 um 23:56 schrieb Andre Jute:
Why is it so hard for you guys to admit that Tom is right? What
that graph shows is a lower than normal death rate (the blue
vertical lines, which are summed individual fatalities, a count
in which we can have near perfect confidence), with a
substitution of the presumptive causes (the red line which is a
percentage, in which we can by the admissions of the people who
concocted it have very moderate confidence).

It's quite easy for me to admit that as of April 10, there was no
massive "death by Covid" problem in the USA yet. We have seen a
very similar pattern in Europe: * Due to lockdown, the total
fatality rate came down by about 5% at the time the Covid victims
lay in hospital but were not dying yet. * Due to the lockdown, the
severity of the Influenza season was less severe than the three
seasons before.

One difference to Europe is that in USA, there were massively
lacking capacities for Corona testing, so mayn early Corona
victims were dying of Corona symptoms without being diagnosed for
Corona.

Read the graph qua graph, not through the filter of what you
think you know, and what Tom says makes perfect sense, including
the fiscally-inspired virus body-count inflation he mentions.
This graph is giving meaningful information as of April 10, just
before the **** hit the pan. Tom prefers not to look at the
continuation data from late April or May because this would
destroy his beliefs.


Rolf, quite the opposite was occurring, because there weren't
testing kits available very often the illness was diagnosed on the
weight of symptoms only. X-ray of the chest of a person with
pneumonia and covid-19 are almost identical but with covid-19 being
the disease du jour it could be improperly diagnosed. Putting a
person on a ventilator is not a lightly done thing because of so few
people put on a ventilator survive.


The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it removes
all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm a bit:
In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu, in Florida
or DC even weaker.
But in the US overall, the COVID-19 excess is around 70,000 compared to
15,000 at the 17-18 Flu.
You better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New Jeresy
where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City where the excess
reached 300% over normal.


Rolf - with that site they play a dirty little trick. First, those are not "excess deaths" but "deaths". But if you go to the "excess deaths without Covid-19" and hit the "update dashboard" They lower the chart but not the numbers on the chart; giving you the idea that there are less deaths except you can tell since the chart is identical but just on a different scale. If you go look at the "excess deaths" bumps the actual numbers are exactly the same as "all excess deaths".

There is another idiot thing they've done - they are using "predicted deaths" as a baseline. Predictions are all well and good but you have to be extremely careful that the predictions do not distort reality and that is what has been going on.
  #67  
Old May 26th 20, 11:16 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Frank Krygowski[_4_]
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Posts: 10,538
Default Fun with exponents

On 5/26/2020 2:11 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:37:24 +0200, Rolf Mantel
wrote:

The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it removes
all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm a bit:
In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu, in Florida
or DC even weaker.
But in the US overall, the COVID-19 excess is around 70,000 compared to
15,000 at the 17-18 Flu.
You better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New Jeresy
where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City where the excess
reached 300% over normal.


Look again. NYC was about 600% above normal.
At the same time, NY State was about 125% above normal.

New York seem to be the worst. Go thee unto the aforementioned URL.
Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19
- Update Dashboard
Select Jurisdiction - New York
The excess deaths are in dark blue. Drag the mouse over the peak and
it will show about 125% excess deaths.

However, that's for New York State with New York City excluded from
the data. The "Figure Notes" below the graph proclaims:
"Data for New York excludes New York City"
So NYC is tabulated separately.
Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19
- Update Dashboard
Select Jurisdiction - New York City
Drag the mouse over the peak. The info box shows excess deaths at
596.7% to 649.5%.


I imagine Tom will say all those people who died were just volunteers
participating in the big hoax.

--
- Frank Krygowski
  #68  
Old May 26th 20, 11:18 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 884
Default Fun with exponents

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them
want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci
of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows
very little about.


Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC.
NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has
been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I
presume qualifies as experience:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?


There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate.
  #69  
Old May 27th 20, 01:22 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
jOHN b.
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Posts: 2,421
Default Fun with exponents

On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them
want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci
of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows
very little about.


Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC.
NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has
been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I
presume qualifies as experience:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?


There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate.


And how would you know, Tommy? After all you didn't know enough to
graduate from high school and here you are, nearly 60 years later and
what have you done? Still living in your mother's house, your wife
left you, you apparently never held a job for any length of time, you
have so little funds that you complain loudly about the cost of
groceries and apparently live on social security and unemployment
payments.

But you know, right Tommy, YOU KNOW!

Or are you simply delusional? After all, you fell off your bicycle and
bumped your head and it is said that Delusions are common psychotic
disorders and may be a feature of brain damage.
--
cheers,

John B.

  #70  
Old May 27th 20, 02:56 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Jeff Liebermann
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 4,018
Default Fun with exponents

On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:16:14 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On 5/26/2020 2:11 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
(...)
However, that's for New York State with New York City excluded from
the data. The "Figure Notes" below the graph proclaims:
"Data for New York excludes New York City"
So NYC is tabulated separately.
Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19
- Update Dashboard
Select Jurisdiction - New York City
Drag the mouse over the peak. The info box shows excess deaths at
596.7% to 649.5%.


I imagine Tom will say all those people who died were just volunteers
participating in the big hoax.


Dull and boring. I have a better theory.

Many people that allegedly died actually turned into zombies, also
known as the living dead. When re-animated, these zombies then
staggered all over New York City, infecting everyone they touch. Their
appearance was sufficiently similar to COVID-19 symptoms that the
authorities included them in the COVID-19 excess death count. Of
course, nobody wanted to test them for COVID-19. When everyone was
conveniently looking the other direction, the zombies arose to stagger
around the city again and were again counted as a COVID-19 death. The
process was repeated several times until President Trump released the
national stockpile of emergency chainsaws. The reason it got so far
out of hand (600% excess deaths) was this delay in distributing
chainsaws, and finding a sufficient number of surgeons to operate
them.

How to kill a zombie with a chainsaw:
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=how+to+kill+a+zombie+with+a+c hainsaw


Bicycle related drivel:
Water bottle fail. I grabbed it, and the now brittle plastic
crumbled. My guess(tm) is it was 30 years old. Argh.
http://www.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/water%20bottle%20fail.html


--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D
http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
 




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