#61
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Fun with exponents
On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 11:27:15 PM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 25.05.2020 um 23:56 schrieb Andre Jute: Why is it so hard for you guys to admit that Tom is right? What that graph shows is a lower than normal death rate (the blue vertical lines, which are summed individual fatalities, a count in which we can have near perfect confidence), with a substitution of the presumptive causes (the red line which is a percentage, in which we can by the admissions of the people who concocted it have very moderate confidence). It's quite easy for me to admit that as of April 10, there was no massive "death by Covid" problem in the USA yet. We have seen a very similar pattern in Europe: * Due to lockdown, the total fatality rate came down by about 5% at the time the Covid victims lay in hospital but were not dying yet. * Due to the lockdown, the severity of the Influenza season was less severe than the three seasons before. One difference to Europe is that in USA, there were massively lacking capacities for Corona testing, so mayn early Corona victims were dying of Corona symptoms without being diagnosed for Corona. Read the graph qua graph, not through the filter of what you think you know, and what Tom says makes perfect sense, including the fiscally-inspired virus body-count inflation he mentions. This graph is giving meaningful information as of April 10, just before the **** hit the pan. Tom prefers not to look at the continuation data from late April or May because this would destroy his beliefs. Rolf, quite the opposite was occurring, because there weren't testing kits available very often the illness was diagnosed on the weight of symptoms only. X-ray of the chest of a person with pneumonia and covid-19 are almost identical but with covid-19 being the disease du jour it could be improperly diagnosed. Putting a person on a ventilator is not a lightly done thing because of so few people put on a ventilator survive. Also one of the treatments for pneumonia is cutting your chest open to drain pus formed from the bacterial infection out. Rather than pus a covid-19 patient has swelling which inhibits air passage into the lungs. If you don't drain a pneumonia victim he stands a very high chance of dying. And with a large number of people dying in a short period of time they don't have the capacity for a post-mortem which would properly identify CoD. I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. First he quite rightly said that a mask wouldn't prevent ingress or egress of a virus which is quite right and which any first year med student is supposed to know. Then he reversed himself that all should use masks and social distancing - again anyone that knows anything about viruses would know that can accomplish nothing. Or I should say that distancing usually works but the distances have to be much larger than they are ordering. But coming from Fauci, suddenly it is like the brains on a large percentage of doctors turned off and they started recommending masks and social distancing. Anyone that has observed the growth curve of diseases knows that you can have a linear growth curve or a non-linear growth curve which is dependent upon the method of contagion. Covid-19 has continuously be mischaracterized as being spread by touching surfaces. This has always been an unlikely form of transmission of viruses because of their size they tend to bury in the pores of surfaces and so are difficult to pick up on the next hand. Instead, because of a linear growth curve it is obviously spread via droplets of exhaled breath containing the virus. This is a difficult method of transmission IN THE OPEN AIR. So what did they do? Tell people to stay at home and had everyone enclosing themselves in areas where the air can become saturated with the virus. Nursing homes and retirement communities in particular would be expected to be the hardest hit and indeed they were. A symptomless disease and no rapid method of testing makes it a given. Covid-19 symptoms are so generalized that it can literally look like anything without an actual test kit (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...Fsymptoms.html) The testing method used in Europe was VERY slow - it was to incubate a sample over a week until there were enough of the corona virus to identify under a microscope. This also meant that the technician must recognize covid-19 from any one of dozens of corona viruses. We could question whether deaths were correctly identified and that could go either way. But as I said, the disease du jour almost always is used as an excuse. The outstanding character of that chart is that pneumonia deaths remained constant. Flu deaths where recognized remained constant and covid-19 deaths shot up but total deaths did not. And this is what epidemiologists in the field were saying all along - the people who were victimized by this disease were those that would have died one way or another. They just had another cause of death marked on the death certificate. While any death is a loss, you do not solve anything but taking improper steps and that is precisely what the state governors particularly in Democrat run states did. Practice fascism rather than medically sound judgement. |
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#63
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Fun with exponents
On Tue, 26 May 2020 07:43:48 -0700 (PDT), wrote:
As Jay wanted to argue about, suicide rates are way up. In the US, suicide is almost the same rate as death by car wreck (and is often a form of suicide). I mentioned that before - no doubt car wrecks are down (but I'd warrant a whole lot less than you might think since the cars that are on the more open roads are driving at incredible speeds.) But slamming the door to peoples futures as this has done has very, very serious consequences. https://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/suicide/index.html Just one tiny little problem. The few numbers on the above "FactSheet" are from 1999 through 2016. Presumably, we didn't have a COVID-19 problem four years ago. I'll leave it to you to find some current numbers and trends. You could use the practice. Well, I couldn't resist. See the graph at: https://afsp.org/suicide-statistics/ which is current to Jan 2018. So, in 9 years, the suicide rate went from 11.8 to 14.2/100,000 population which equals 0.012% to 0.014% for an increase of 0.002% in 9 years. It's odd that the graph would start in 2009 because I would expect a substantial increase in suicides during the 2008 stock market collapse. Unfortunately that doesn't show short term growth but psychiatrists are saying that a doubling of the rate is not unexpected. Which psychiatrists published in which tabloids? Doubling the rate over what baseline? You might actually be correct but it's difficult to tell from your "proof" which more closely resembles an assertion. There are psychiatrists who seek media attention. Perhaps 5G cellular causes suicides? These daze, the only way to get media attention is to make outrageous or "thought provoking" statements. Mundane statements based on research and statistical probability don't seem to qualify. No bicycles were mentioned or harmed in the manufacture of this article. -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
#64
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Fun with exponents
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote:
I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
#65
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Fun with exponents
On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:37:24 +0200, Rolf Mantel
wrote: The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it removes all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm a bit: In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu, in Florida or DC even weaker. But in the US overall, the COVID-19 excess is around 70,000 compared to 15,000 at the 17-18 Flu. You better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New Jeresy where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City where the excess reached 300% over normal. Look again. NYC was about 600% above normal. At the same time, NY State was about 125% above normal. New York seem to be the worst. Go thee unto the aforementioned URL. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19 - Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York The excess deaths are in dark blue. Drag the mouse over the peak and it will show about 125% excess deaths. However, that's for New York State with New York City excluded from the data. The "Figure Notes" below the graph proclaims: "Data for New York excludes New York City" So NYC is tabulated separately. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19 - Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York City Drag the mouse over the peak. The info box shows excess deaths at 596.7% to 649.5%. -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
#66
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Fun with exponents
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 9:37:27 AM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 26.05.2020 um 17:30 schrieb : On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 11:27:15 PM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote: Am 25.05.2020 um 23:56 schrieb Andre Jute: Why is it so hard for you guys to admit that Tom is right? What that graph shows is a lower than normal death rate (the blue vertical lines, which are summed individual fatalities, a count in which we can have near perfect confidence), with a substitution of the presumptive causes (the red line which is a percentage, in which we can by the admissions of the people who concocted it have very moderate confidence). It's quite easy for me to admit that as of April 10, there was no massive "death by Covid" problem in the USA yet. We have seen a very similar pattern in Europe: * Due to lockdown, the total fatality rate came down by about 5% at the time the Covid victims lay in hospital but were not dying yet. * Due to the lockdown, the severity of the Influenza season was less severe than the three seasons before. One difference to Europe is that in USA, there were massively lacking capacities for Corona testing, so mayn early Corona victims were dying of Corona symptoms without being diagnosed for Corona. Read the graph qua graph, not through the filter of what you think you know, and what Tom says makes perfect sense, including the fiscally-inspired virus body-count inflation he mentions. This graph is giving meaningful information as of April 10, just before the **** hit the pan. Tom prefers not to look at the continuation data from late April or May because this would destroy his beliefs. Rolf, quite the opposite was occurring, because there weren't testing kits available very often the illness was diagnosed on the weight of symptoms only. X-ray of the chest of a person with pneumonia and covid-19 are almost identical but with covid-19 being the disease du jour it could be improperly diagnosed. Putting a person on a ventilator is not a lightly done thing because of so few people put on a ventilator survive. The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it removes all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm a bit: In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu, in Florida or DC even weaker. But in the US overall, the COVID-19 excess is around 70,000 compared to 15,000 at the 17-18 Flu. You better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New Jeresy where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City where the excess reached 300% over normal. Rolf - with that site they play a dirty little trick. First, those are not "excess deaths" but "deaths". But if you go to the "excess deaths without Covid-19" and hit the "update dashboard" They lower the chart but not the numbers on the chart; giving you the idea that there are less deaths except you can tell since the chart is identical but just on a different scale. If you go look at the "excess deaths" bumps the actual numbers are exactly the same as "all excess deaths". There is another idiot thing they've done - they are using "predicted deaths" as a baseline. Predictions are all well and good but you have to be extremely careful that the predictions do not distort reality and that is what has been going on. |
#67
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Fun with exponents
On 5/26/2020 2:11 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:37:24 +0200, Rolf Mantel wrote: The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it removes all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm a bit: In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu, in Florida or DC even weaker. But in the US overall, the COVID-19 excess is around 70,000 compared to 15,000 at the 17-18 Flu. You better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New Jeresy where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City where the excess reached 300% over normal. Look again. NYC was about 600% above normal. At the same time, NY State was about 125% above normal. New York seem to be the worst. Go thee unto the aforementioned URL. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19 - Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York The excess deaths are in dark blue. Drag the mouse over the peak and it will show about 125% excess deaths. However, that's for New York State with New York City excluded from the data. The "Figure Notes" below the graph proclaims: "Data for New York excludes New York City" So NYC is tabulated separately. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19 - Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York City Drag the mouse over the peak. The info box shows excess deaths at 596.7% to 649.5%. I imagine Tom will say all those people who died were just volunteers participating in the big hoax. -- - Frank Krygowski |
#68
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Fun with exponents
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. |
#69
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Fun with exponents
On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote:
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. And how would you know, Tommy? After all you didn't know enough to graduate from high school and here you are, nearly 60 years later and what have you done? Still living in your mother's house, your wife left you, you apparently never held a job for any length of time, you have so little funds that you complain loudly about the cost of groceries and apparently live on social security and unemployment payments. But you know, right Tommy, YOU KNOW! Or are you simply delusional? After all, you fell off your bicycle and bumped your head and it is said that Delusions are common psychotic disorders and may be a feature of brain damage. -- cheers, John B. |
#70
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Fun with exponents
On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:16:14 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote: On 5/26/2020 2:11 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: (...) However, that's for New York State with New York City excluded from the data. The "Figure Notes" below the graph proclaims: "Data for New York excludes New York City" So NYC is tabulated separately. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19 - Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York City Drag the mouse over the peak. The info box shows excess deaths at 596.7% to 649.5%. I imagine Tom will say all those people who died were just volunteers participating in the big hoax. Dull and boring. I have a better theory. Many people that allegedly died actually turned into zombies, also known as the living dead. When re-animated, these zombies then staggered all over New York City, infecting everyone they touch. Their appearance was sufficiently similar to COVID-19 symptoms that the authorities included them in the COVID-19 excess death count. Of course, nobody wanted to test them for COVID-19. When everyone was conveniently looking the other direction, the zombies arose to stagger around the city again and were again counted as a COVID-19 death. The process was repeated several times until President Trump released the national stockpile of emergency chainsaws. The reason it got so far out of hand (600% excess deaths) was this delay in distributing chainsaws, and finding a sufficient number of surgeons to operate them. How to kill a zombie with a chainsaw: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=how+to+kill+a+zombie+with+a+c hainsaw Bicycle related drivel: Water bottle fail. I grabbed it, and the now brittle plastic crumbled. My guess(tm) is it was 30 years old. Argh. http://www.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/water%20bottle%20fail.html -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
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