#111
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Fun with exponents
On 5/27/2020 8:39 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 20:15:03 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 7:44 PM, John B. wrote: On Wed, 27 May 2020 13:35:50 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 12:13 PM, jbeattie wrote: On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 9:42:34 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself from a viral epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't think that's what you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also seem to have changed your position on Dr Fauci from: "Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about." to: "I do not deny Fauci that much." That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on infectious diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him something you didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to have an opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled to discount your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your opinion about Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of someone in the US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to handle a pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China that are substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but such experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is bureau eliminated by the Trump administration: "A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump administration amid the coronavirus crisis" https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5 No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that they know anything for the simple reason that they are interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than some stupid biased punk. Your homework, Tom: !) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that because you obviously know very, very little about him. 2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux News managed to dig up. Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci. We'll even give bonus points for a little more work: 3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology, ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine, sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know - all the other things about which you, as a high school dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained, experienced, and recognized experts. Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and political survivor who knows something but surely not everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has different opinions but gets no media traction: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/ Knows something? Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong, which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience, and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences based on risk tolerance. The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the US to be a good control. Personally, I don't care if a lot of people die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people who I don't know. -- Jay Beattie. I have no animus toward Dr Fauci. There just aren't enough Italians in the world. But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt and call it well intentioned, but his various positions (no mask, maybe mask, mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no confidence. His famous statements "Americans need not worry" , "No worse than the flu" and so on are endlessly repeated and need no further comment from me. And we do indeed have real world real time policy comparisons. Mr DeSantis rigorously and immediately protected old age homes, rehab centers, assisted living facilities and retirement communities ending with a small fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings and hope of working citizens and small business owners. In January, Tom Cotton was saying: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't. Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but humans are a widely variable lot and none are perfect. (Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either) So what is the solution? Just say "**** it" and go on about your business as normal? As I believe I have previously written, Thailand has been able to trace nearly every virus case to it's source and in the majority of the early cases were traced to places and events where a large number or people congregated.Once lock down was in force, and enforced, the numbers of new cases dropped dramatically and were almost wholly limited to single new infections between family members. Again, it is not heartless or dismissive of the dead to explain to adult citizen any facts, where known, and advise them. Japan did that very successfully without forcibly closing businesses and thereby ruining careers, savings, investments and various supply chains. The US of A has among us children and idiots. Treating all of us as children or idiots is not a good start to any policy. As bad as our situation is, exacerbated by draconian (perhaps unconstitutional[1] ) abuses of liberty, the butcher's bill is yet to come. Suffering so far is minor compared to the next several years. Most people have absolutely no inkling of the vast damages and lost wealth we will struggle mightily to replace. And it's not us alone. American Christians in South America and Africa are warning already of diminished food/medical/infrastructure transfers. The problems of a $trillion-plus lost US productivity is larger and broader than you might at first imagine. [1] There are several examples of quarantine laws or vaccination rules upheld (Jacobson v MA). This is not that. There aren't AFAIK prior examples of restricted liberty in order to deflect the nation's attention from an actual problem. As I have said before, it is easy to wave your hands in the air and shout, "Oh! that's wrong. But what is the solution? Keep the stores and factories open? And what happens? Well, actually nobody knows but, and again I'm using something that happened here and was documented, a single boxing match attended by a large number of people resulted in spreading the virus to more than hundred individuals. A single infected employee, who does not yet display symptoms could, possibly, infect every customer that enters your place of business as well as you and all your employees. Is that a better solution? Yes. It takes great discipline and fortitude to do nothing where overaction makes the problem worse. Politicians usually cannot resist compounding every error into a debacle. It's what they do. DeSantis is such an outlier I think history will be very kind to him. Ditto Mr Lofven. Compare Florida with New York. Or Sweden to other European countries. As a counterpoint, Germany, whose experience was different again. There just is not a firm case for correlation. Oh by the way, compare 1969 Hong Kong Flu in USA with 100,000 dead to the 2020 Wuhan Virus. The population was some 35% smaller then as well. Very little was made of it. Not in newspapers, not political speeches, not tavern conversation. Certainly no shutdowns, business closures, forced unemployment, travel bans and such. I, for one, was very busy swapping spit with girls and, then as now, wore no mask. YMMV. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
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#112
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Fun with exponents
On 5/27/2020 4:36 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 2:36 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 1:43 PM, wrote: Only someone in a financially secure position could ignore the pain and suffering of people whose source of income has been cut off... Only a person who has no friend or family infected or seriously at risk could ignore the pain and suffering of those with COVID. ... for no reasons whatsoever. That's the view of a person with zero qualifications, despite strong disagreement from qualified experts in every country worldwide. It is not heartless to observe that there is no correlation between punishment and mortality rates. There are definitely fatal policy errors (and Mr Cuomo made more than a few of them. He's not alone.) but destroying lives, income, businesses, wealth, opportunity and hope has not meant less death, just more suffering among the living. Again, "punishment" is a deliberately loaded word. Things like social distancing orders and travel restrictions were intended to protect, not punish. And again, those measures have worked extremely well in many places. Look how excellently Hawaii has done! Less than 20 deaths last I looked. Isn't it obvious that can only be due to the 'stay-at-home' orders? ;-) -- - Frank Krygowski |
#113
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Fun with exponents
On 5/27/2020 2:35 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 12:13 PM, jbeattie wrote: On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 9:42:34 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984.* He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health).* He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. I see.* You want to be advised on how to protect yourself from a viral epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News.* I don't think that's what you intended to say, but that's what you wrote.* You also seem to have changed your position on Dr Fauci from: **** "Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an **** expert at things he knows very little about." to: **** "I do not deny Fauci that much." That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on infectious diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him something you didn't bother to specify.* Of course, you're entitled to have an opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled to discount your opinion as rubbish.* Anyway, kindly stabilize your opinion about Dr Fauci.* If it's critical, please provide the name of someone in the US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to handle a pandemic.* Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China that are substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but such experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is bureau eliminated by the Trump administration: "A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump administration amid the coronavirus crisis" https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5 No bicycle related content this time.* Sorry(tm). -- Jeff Liebermann**** 150 Felker St #D*** http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann**** AE6KS*** 831-336-2558 The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you an expert. The epidemiologists in the field* say the opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that they know anything for the simple reason that they are interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than some stupid biased punk. Your homework, Tom: !) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that because you obviously know very, very little about him. 2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux News managed to dig up. Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci. We'll even give bonus points for a little more work: 3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology, ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine, sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know - all the other things about which you, as a high school dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained, experienced, and recognized experts. Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and political survivor who knows something but surely not everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has different opinions but gets no media traction: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/ Knows something?* Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong, which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience, and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences based on risk tolerance. The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the US to be a good control.* Personally, I don't care if a lot of people die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people who I don't know. -- Jay Beattie. I have no animus toward Dr Fauci.* There just aren't enough Italians in the world. But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt and call it well intentioned, but his various positions (no mask, maybe mask, mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no confidence. His famous statements "Americans need not worry" , "No worse than the flu" and so on are endlessly repeated and need no further comment from me. And we do indeed have real world real time policy comparisons. Mr DeSantis rigorously and immediately protected old age homes, rehab centers, assisted living facilities and retirement communities ending with a small fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings and hope of working citizens and small business owners. In January, Tom Cotton was saying: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't. Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but humans are a widely variable lot and none are perfect. (Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either) To me, this argument sounds similar to financial huxterism that pops up occasionally on the web: "This man said to buy Apple in 1990! See what he recommends TODAY!" It's canonization by hindsight, and a good guess early on is no guarantee of special knowledge. Perhaps Cotton was perceptive, or made a good guess. But some of the stuff he's said since has been off the rails. Still, I'm sure we can't locate one individual who has gotten every fact about this disaster correct. Not even Tom! But people of Fauci's caliber have been using science, evaluating data and adjusting strategy and recommendations as more data became available. Of course information is changing. That's how science is supposed to work! And even Cotton has said “Using your own two eyes to see what’s happening in our hospitals [is] the real acid-test for how serious this virus is.” People that say things like "It's all a hoax" or "I have a good feeling about hydroxychloroquine..." are motivated by something other than science. -- - Frank Krygowski |
#114
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Fun with exponents
On 5/27/2020 9:24 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 19:53:38 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 7:21 PM, John B. wrote: On Wed, 27 May 2020 11:42:30 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself from a viral epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't think that's what you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also seem to have changed your position on Dr Fauci from: "Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about." to: "I do not deny Fauci that much." That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on infectious diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him something you didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to have an opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled to discount your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your opinion about Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of someone in the US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to handle a pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China that are substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but such experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is bureau eliminated by the Trump administration: "A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump administration amid the coronavirus crisis" https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5 No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that they know anything for the simple reason that they are interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than some stupid biased punk. Your homework, Tom: !) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that because you obviously know very, very little about him. 2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux News managed to dig up. Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci. We'll even give bonus points for a little more work: 3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology, ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine, sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know - all the other things about which you, as a high school dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained, experienced, and recognized experts. Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and political survivor who knows something but surely not everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has different opinions but gets no media traction: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/ And yet, countries that did institute a lock down, in a timely manner, have noticeably lower cases and deaths. (please note the phrase "timely manner") Italy did and lost many. Japan did not and lost few. Sweden is not out of line to her neighbors and yet still has some GDP remaining. RE Japan, no they didn't invoke a formal lock down but they did encourage stores to close and mad some sort of payment to those that did. They did trace the origin of the disease in individuals. They did reduce person-to-person contact, the government has instructed the public to refrain from going to high-risk environments (the Three Cs: closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings) and events involving movement between different areas of the country. It emphasized extreme caution when coming in contact with the elderly. The government also promoted such work-style reforms as teleworking and staggering commuting hours, while improving the country's distance learning infrastructure for children The difference is perhaps that the Japanese people are more compliant and tend to do what the government suggests while the normal U.S. reaction, at least as evidenced here, is a sort of "f++k it", I want to do what I want to do attitude. +1 -- - Frank Krygowski |
#115
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Fun with exponents
On Wed, 27 May 2020 21:27:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 8:39 PM, John B. wrote: On Wed, 27 May 2020 20:15:03 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 7:44 PM, John B. wrote: On Wed, 27 May 2020 13:35:50 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 12:13 PM, jbeattie wrote: On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 9:42:34 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself from a viral epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't think that's what you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also seem to have changed your position on Dr Fauci from: "Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about." to: "I do not deny Fauci that much." That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on infectious diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him something you didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to have an opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled to discount your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your opinion about Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of someone in the US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to handle a pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China that are substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but such experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is bureau eliminated by the Trump administration: "A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump administration amid the coronavirus crisis" https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5 No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that they know anything for the simple reason that they are interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than some stupid biased punk. Your homework, Tom: !) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that because you obviously know very, very little about him. 2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux News managed to dig up. Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci. We'll even give bonus points for a little more work: 3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology, ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine, sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know - all the other things about which you, as a high school dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained, experienced, and recognized experts. Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and political survivor who knows something but surely not everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has different opinions but gets no media traction: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/ Knows something? Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong, which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience, and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences based on risk tolerance. The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the US to be a good control. Personally, I don't care if a lot of people die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people who I don't know. -- Jay Beattie. I have no animus toward Dr Fauci. There just aren't enough Italians in the world. But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt and call it well intentioned, but his various positions (no mask, maybe mask, mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no confidence. His famous statements "Americans need not worry" , "No worse than the flu" and so on are endlessly repeated and need no further comment from me. And we do indeed have real world real time policy comparisons. Mr DeSantis rigorously and immediately protected old age homes, rehab centers, assisted living facilities and retirement communities ending with a small fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings and hope of working citizens and small business owners. In January, Tom Cotton was saying: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't. Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but humans are a widely variable lot and none are perfect. (Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either) So what is the solution? Just say "**** it" and go on about your business as normal? As I believe I have previously written, Thailand has been able to trace nearly every virus case to it's source and in the majority of the early cases were traced to places and events where a large number or people congregated.Once lock down was in force, and enforced, the numbers of new cases dropped dramatically and were almost wholly limited to single new infections between family members. Again, it is not heartless or dismissive of the dead to explain to adult citizen any facts, where known, and advise them. Japan did that very successfully without forcibly closing businesses and thereby ruining careers, savings, investments and various supply chains. The US of A has among us children and idiots. Treating all of us as children or idiots is not a good start to any policy. As bad as our situation is, exacerbated by draconian (perhaps unconstitutional[1] ) abuses of liberty, the butcher's bill is yet to come. Suffering so far is minor compared to the next several years. Most people have absolutely no inkling of the vast damages and lost wealth we will struggle mightily to replace. And it's not us alone. American Christians in South America and Africa are warning already of diminished food/medical/infrastructure transfers. The problems of a $trillion-plus lost US productivity is larger and broader than you might at first imagine. [1] There are several examples of quarantine laws or vaccination rules upheld (Jacobson v MA). This is not that. There aren't AFAIK prior examples of restricted liberty in order to deflect the nation's attention from an actual problem. As I have said before, it is easy to wave your hands in the air and shout, "Oh! that's wrong. But what is the solution? Keep the stores and factories open? And what happens? Well, actually nobody knows but, and again I'm using something that happened here and was documented, a single boxing match attended by a large number of people resulted in spreading the virus to more than hundred individuals. A single infected employee, who does not yet display symptoms could, possibly, infect every customer that enters your place of business as well as you and all your employees. Is that a better solution? Yes. It takes great discipline and fortitude to do nothing where overaction makes the problem worse. Politicians usually cannot resist compounding every error into a debacle. It's what they do. DeSantis is such an outlier I think history will be very kind to him. Ditto Mr Lofven. Compare Florida with New York. Or Sweden to other European countries. As a counterpoint, Germany, whose experience was different again. There just is not a firm case for correlation. Oh by the way, compare 1969 Hong Kong Flu in USA with 100,000 dead to the 2020 Wuhan Virus. The population was some 35% smaller then as well. Very little was made of it. Not in newspapers, not political speeches, not tavern conversation. Certainly no shutdowns, business closures, forced unemployment, travel bans and such. I, for one, was very busy swapping spit with girls and, then as now, wore no mask. YMMV. Well perhaps it might have been the timing. True the 1968-9 pandemic killed 100,000... in about 6 months. The current virus has killed 100,000 in 118 days. Actually 102,107, or about 865.5/day Or perhaps it is the ease of communication, after all Usenet really got started in about 1980. The WWW was proposed in, what was it? 1989? And Twitter only really got going in about 2007. -- cheers, John B. |
#116
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Fun with exponents
On 27/05/2020 23.52, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 16:54:48 +0700, John B. wrote: On Wed, 27 May 2020 10:13:01 +0100, Tosspot wrote: On 26/05/2020 23.16, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/26/2020 2:11 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:37:24 +0200, Rolf Mantel wrote: The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it removes all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm a bit: In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu, in Florida or DC even weaker. But in the US overall, the COVID-19 excess is around 70,000 compared to 15,000 at the 17-18 Flu. You better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New Jeresy where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City where the excess reached 300% over normal. Look again. NYC was about 600% above normal. At the same time, NY State was about 125% above normal. New York seem to be the worst. Go thee unto the aforementioned URL. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19 - Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York The excess deaths are in dark blue. Drag the mouse over the peak and it will show about 125% excess deaths. However, that's for New York State with New York City excluded from the data. The "Figure Notes" below the graph proclaims: "Data for New York excludes New York City" So NYC is tabulated separately. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19 - Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York City Drag the mouse over the peak. The info box shows excess deaths at 596.7% to 649.5%. I imagine Tom will say all those people who died were just volunteers participating in the big hoax. The ultimate sacrifice. They should all be given the Presidential Medal of Freedom. 100,000 and counting. Going to need a lot of scrap metal for those medals. At May 27, 2020, 03:41 GMT it was 100,572 deaths and 1,144,734 sick. And at May 27, 2020, 22:42 GMT it was 1,743,898 cases and 102,005 deaths. Come on you guys. With only a tiny bit more effort you can hit the big 2,000,000 mark. I know that you can do it if you just try. Give them a chance, they are only just mobilising the maggot transmission vectors, they're going to need at least another month. |
#118
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Fun with exponents
On Thu, 28 May 2020 09:28:39 +0100, Tosspot
wrote: On 27/05/2020 23.52, John B. wrote: On Wed, 27 May 2020 16:54:48 +0700, John B. wrote: On Wed, 27 May 2020 10:13:01 +0100, Tosspot wrote: On 26/05/2020 23.16, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/26/2020 2:11 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:37:24 +0200, Rolf Mantel wrote: The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it removes all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm a bit: In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu, in Florida or DC even weaker. But in the US overall, the COVID-19 excess is around 70,000 compared to 15,000 at the 17-18 Flu. You better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New Jeresy where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City where the excess reached 300% over normal. Look again. NYC was about 600% above normal. At the same time, NY State was about 125% above normal. New York seem to be the worst. Go thee unto the aforementioned URL. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19 - Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York The excess deaths are in dark blue. Drag the mouse over the peak and it will show about 125% excess deaths. However, that's for New York State with New York City excluded from the data. The "Figure Notes" below the graph proclaims: "Data for New York excludes New York City" So NYC is tabulated separately. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19 - Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York City Drag the mouse over the peak. The info box shows excess deaths at 596.7% to 649.5%. I imagine Tom will say all those people who died were just volunteers participating in the big hoax. The ultimate sacrifice. They should all be given the Presidential Medal of Freedom. 100,000 and counting. Going to need a lot of scrap metal for those medals. At May 27, 2020, 03:41 GMT it was 100,572 deaths and 1,144,734 sick. And at May 27, 2020, 22:42 GMT it was 1,743,898 cases and 102,005 deaths. Come on you guys. With only a tiny bit more effort you can hit the big 2,000,000 mark. I know that you can do it if you just try. Give them a chance, they are only just mobilising the maggot transmission vectors, they're going to need at least another month. It doesn't look that way. The last 10 days saw an increase of 218,139 or 21.813/day. Simple calculations would seem to indicate that you'll hit the 2,000,000 mark in about 12 days :-( -- cheers, John B. |
#119
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Fun with exponents
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 6:04:58 PM UTC+1, AMuzi wrote:
Further to my last reply, I am not an expert. I do not work in relevant fields nor read much beyond general coverage and Science News. Science? What you want science for? "Science" says we're all already burnt to a frazzle in the global warming. However, confidence in CDC (and most Governors) is lacking out here among the population of punished innocents: https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horow...e-is-the-media Journalists are all "scientists" too. It is in the interest of the Donkey Party to ramp up the media's hysterical fear-mongering, so the media as the publicity department of the Donkey Party are pleased to call themselves, irresponsibly ramp up the fear. Compare the way the media has thugged on Ron de Santis of Florida, by an objective account a very successful governor in these dangerous times, with the way they have idolized Andrew Cuomo, whose cruel (and stupid, and criminal) decisions aggravated matters in New York State. (I'm not even talking about Mayor de Blasio, whose incompetence is murderous.) I understand that government employees relaxing at home with full pay and retirees have a much less urgent interest than people running out of resources right now. I'm used to sitting in an elegant if somewhat dusty room (I subscribe to the Sherlock Holmes theory of filing -- I know from the depth of the dust on a stack of papers how urgent they must be) starting at a bare (well, actually wallpapered in restful Regency browny-pink stripes with a polished picture rail) or out of the window at the magpies squabbling in the eucalyptus trees. I didn't even notice the first lockdown until it was two weeks in and my wife mentioned it to me when I offered to take her to lunch at a fave restaurant. The police and the Red Cross bring our medicines (and the pharmacy staff anyway picked up prescriptions and delivered medicines before the Wuhan Virus; just another service they offer), the shops we always patronized bring our groceries as they always did, and we hardly notice that there's a problem. But I'm an economist as well as an artist, and a valid question arises: Considering that the majority of the victims of the Wuhan Virus were elderly and presumably out of the workforce, and that dumb political decisions like Governor Cuomo stuffing sick people back into rest homes, aggravated their chances of dying of the virus, was the lockdown warranted? That is, would the hospitals really have been overwhelmed? If the answer is yes, then no lockdown could easily have led to much larger economic damage -- ask yourself the economic value of an orderly society, which you clearly lose at some point in an out-of-control pandemic. So, the economic damage without a lockdown could have been larger. Emphasis on *could*. That must be weighed against this: without the economic damage of any lockdown (or one starting earlier or later, and for shorter or longer), how many more old people would have died, short of the total breakdown of society I described earlier in this paragraph? That's the sort of awful and awesome decision democracies elect their chief executives to take.* The present operating conditions of decision-makers is the starkest reminder you can imagine of the historical reality that economics isn't a science (as the mathematical branches insist), but a specialized branch of philosophy. Good luck with sorting out the reasonable reality from the politics that has since the beginning bedeviled even hard counts, never mind speculative points such as those I just raised. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 Andre Jute Just as well Mr Trump is a man of action rather than being given to overly much cogitation -- personally, if I were President, I'd hightail it to Canada or England or Australia and offer to be Prime Minister, because their collective-Cabinet-responsibility shares the blame for any decisions in such a loss-loss situation. |
#120
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Fun with exponents
On 5/27/2020 9:38 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 4:36 PM, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 2:36 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 1:43 PM, wrote: Only someone in a financially secure position could ignore the pain and suffering of people whose source of income has been cut off... Only a person who has no friend or family infected or seriously at risk could ignore the pain and suffering of those with COVID. ... for no reasons whatsoever. That's the view of a person with zero qualifications, despite strong disagreement from qualified experts in every country worldwide. It is not heartless to observe that there is no correlation between punishment and mortality rates. There are definitely fatal policy errors (and Mr Cuomo made more than a few of them. He's not alone.) but destroying lives, income, businesses, wealth, opportunity and hope has not meant less death, just more suffering among the living. Again, "punishment" is a deliberately loaded word. Things like social distancing orders and travel restrictions were intended to protect, not punish. And again, those measures have worked extremely well in many places. Look how excellently Hawaii has done! Less than 20 deaths last I looked. Isn't it obvious that can only be due to the 'stay-at-home' orders? ;-) That is not at all obvious. New York?? Chicago?? -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
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