Economics not bicycle tech

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 6:47:45 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/9/2020 9:20 PM, John B. wrote:
On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 09:13:12 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 6:55:23 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 4/8/2020 8:02 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 10:20:53 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 7:35:32 PM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote:
Frank Krygowski wrote:
On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 9:03:19 PM UTC-4, John B. wrote:
On Tue, 07 Apr 2020 19:03:33 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

You could embrace the new religion, face Mosinee Wisconsin
and give thanks for the sacred toilet paper we send out to
redeem the world. It's suddenly the only sacred artifact in
the nation.

(I don't understand this phenomenon either. It's mystical.)

Did y'all "send out" toilet paper? I thought that it was hoarded by
the multitudes and was no longer available in the "the land of the
free and the home of the brave (with dirty bums)"?

Oh, they're sending it out. My long haul trucker friend posted a
photo of a line of tractor trailers maybe a quarter mile long. They
were lined up to pick up shipments of toilet paper.

We went to the grocery today. On the twenty foot long double shelves
that are usually filled with packs of toilet paper, we saw two packs
of Charmin (6 rolls each) and maybe 20 individual discount rolls.
We snagged one Charmin pack. Woo hoo!

One interesting aspect: If this scare suddenly ends, the toilet paper
factories will have to shut down for a month or more. Nobody will
need to buy any for a long time.

- Frank Krygowski


I think it will actually work out well for them. The toilet paper factories
are running flat out now. Once everybody has too much and the virus
situation continues to worsen, they can let their staff run off of their
banked overtime and stay home with pay.

Ralph, It appears that 3 out of 4 people have immune systems that react very rapidly to this virus and they cannot become infected. They are primed by the fact that Covid-19 is very similar to the cold virus so immunity is pretty much built-in.

Of the 25% of the population left, 80% of them had no or very mild symptoms. The remaining 20% is unclear since they are not properly testing people but it appears that the virus CAN be fatal to about 3% of them however the treatment methods look to be working very well. Perhaps this is the reason that there seems to be a sharp drop in fatalities. Though perhaps it can be more widespread testing which increases the baseline and makes the mortality rate calculations.

What if rather than 80% having little to no symptoms, only 5% do and only 3% of those are in danger? And treatment appears to be working on 80% of those?

I am quite upset at the apparently total fake claims from the CDC. It now appears that we will have fewer than 10% of the predicted fatalities from the CDC and that is not just room for error but totally missing the mark.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
World wide, of the 418,136 cases which, to date, have had an outcome:
329,731 (79%) Recovered
88,405 (21%) died
But don't worry folks Tommy says there is no danger.

In California
https://coronavirus.app/tracking/california
there are have been 18,909 cases diagnosed and 495 deaths and no
recoveries.
But don't worry folks Tommy says there is no danger.
--
cheers,

John B.


a larger perspective:

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/04...death-numbers/

Note that CDC now wants any death from any cause listed as
Wuhan virus COVID19, if that tests as present.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

That is rather outdated but the percentages are more or less the same. But that's OK, according to all of the people in the know here, covid-19 is so dangerous we have to shut down the entire economy in order to defeat it. They do not know the mortality rates, they don't know how many people are naturally immune and they don't know the numbers of people who are not naturally immune that have had it or have it but they are positive that the sky is falling.

Tommy, I'm going to tell you a story.

Way back in the 1960's young men were literally flocking out of the
country to avoid the draft, "to be sent to Vietnam to die". One writer
stated that "Estimates of the total number of American citizens who
moved to Canada range from 50,000 to 125,000 This exodus was "the
largest politically motivated migration from the United States since
the United Empire Loyalists moved north to oppose the American
Revolution."

The reality was that in 1968, the worst year of the war, some 16,899
U.S. forces were killed. FOR ONE YEAR.

Now, we are told that in the U.S., for the 75 days that the Virus has
been active, some 16,485 have died. FOR 75 DAYS.
(If you project that rate of death for an entire year you arrive at
the number "80,227")

Forgetting any heart stopping projections, by tomorrow, we will likely
reach a death toll that 50 years ago so terrified the younger
generation that they ran away to Canada.

And you tell us, "Don't worry"?

There's this interesting animation.:
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1812248/

You still don't get the point do you? Covid-19 causes VERY few deaths itself. And only to a very tiny number of the population that have a faulty immune system.

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 6:56:01 PM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote:
Tom Kunich wrote:
On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 2:43:27 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/9/2020 3:50 PM, Ralph Barone wrote:
AMuzi wrote:
On 4/9/2020 12:20 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/9/2020 12:13 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 6:55:23 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 4/8/2020 8:02 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 10:20:53 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 7:35:32 PM UTC-7, Ralph
Barone wrote:
Frank Krygowski wrote:
On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 9:03:19 PM UTC-4, John
B. wrote:
On Tue, 07 Apr 2020 19:03:33 -0500, AMuzi
wrote:

You could embrace the new religion, face Mosinee
Wisconsin
and give thanks for the sacred toilet paper we send
out to
redeem the world. It's suddenly the only sacred
artifact in
the nation.

(I don't understand this phenomenon either. It's
mystical.)

Did y'all "send out" toilet paper? I thought that it
was hoarded by
the multitudes and was no longer available in the
"the land of the
free and the home of the brave (with dirty bums)"?

Oh, they're sending it out. My long haul trucker
friend posted a
photo of a line of tractor trailers maybe a quarter
mile long. They
were lined up to pick up shipments of toilet paper.

We went to the grocery today. On the twenty foot long
double shelves
that are usually filled with packs of toilet paper,
we saw two packs
of Charmin (6 rolls each) and maybe 20 individual
discount rolls.
We snagged one Charmin pack. Woo hoo!

One interesting aspect: If this scare suddenly ends,
the toilet paper
factories will have to shut down for a month or more.
Nobody will
need to buy any for a long time.

- Frank Krygowski


I think it will actually work out well for them. The
toilet paper factories
are running flat out now. Once everybody has too much
and the virus
situation continues to worsen, they can let their
staff run off of their
banked overtime and stay home with pay.

Ralph, It appears that 3 out of 4 people have immune
systems that react very rapidly to this virus and they
cannot become infected. They are primed by the fact
that Covid-19 is very similar to the cold virus so
immunity is pretty much built-in.

Of the 25% of the population left, 80% of them had no
or very mild symptoms. The remaining 20% is unclear
since they are not properly testing people but it
appears that the virus CAN be fatal to about 3% of them
however the treatment methods look to be working very
well. Perhaps this is the reason that there seems to be
a sharp drop in fatalities. Though perhaps it can be
more widespread testing which increases the baseline
and makes the mortality rate calculations.

What if rather than 80% having little to no symptoms,
only 5% do and only 3% of those are in danger? And
treatment appears to be working on 80% of those?

I am quite upset at the apparently total fake claims
from the CDC. It now appears that we will have fewer
than 10% of the predicted fatalities from the CDC and
that is not just room for error but totally missing the
mark.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
World wide, of the 418,136 cases which, to date, have
had an outcome:
329,731 (79%) Recovered
88,405 (21%) died
But don't worry folks Tommy says there is no danger.

In California
https://coronavirus.app/tracking/california
there are have been 18,909 cases diagnosed and 495
deaths and no
recoveries.
But don't worry folks Tommy says there is no danger.
--
cheers,

John B.


a larger perspective:

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/04...death-numbers/


Note that CDC now wants any death from any cause listed as
Wuhan virus COVID19, if that tests as present.

That is rather outdated but the percentages are more or
less the same. But that's OK, according to all of the
people in the know here, covid-19 is so dangerous we have
to shut down the entire economy in order to defeat it.
They do not know the mortality rates, they don't know how
many people are naturally immune and they don't know the
numbers of people who are not naturally immune that have
had it or have it but they are positive that the sky is
falling.

Are all those reported COVID deaths imaginary?

If not all, can you tell us what percentage are imaginary?

That younger cycling friend of mine is still on a
ventilator. I think it's been a couple weeks now. If this
isn't real, I should try to get word to him.



It's a real problem and a death by drowning is not most
people's first choice of method. However, to take NY State
and NYC for example, total deaths from all causes are lower
than last year and reported influenza deaths are
significantly down. Despite a real and lamentable loss of
life, Wuhan virus death numbers are inflated, by how much no
one can say, but it is certainly the case.


Notwithstanding dying of boredom, wouldn’t you expect “death by all other
causes� to go down when people are staying home, not driving, etc?

There are other weirdnesses at work. According to this article, there's
been a drop in people showing up at ER for heart attacks and strokes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/w...ck-stroke.html

Maybe they're just afraid of getting COVID in the hospital - who knows?


--
- Frank Krygowski

So, you demonstrate what I've been saying and then imply that there is no such thing?


No, the article states that people are not arriving at the ER stating that
they’re having a heart attack. Your statement is the people leaving the ER
in a casket after a heart attack are being tagged as dying from COVID-19.
Different statements.

Ralph, you don't seem to have died from it. Do you think that somehow you've avoided that infection? Or that you've been presented to it and your immune system reacted so rapidly to it that you never got any infection and hence have no antibodies for the proposed testing procedure to discover?

The difference in the response of the populations of New York City and Los Angeles is simply population density and sure shouldn't be causing the CDC such problems trying to explain. Influenza outbreaks answer to these same sorts of questions.

On 4/10/2020 11:27 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 6:47:45 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:

There's this interesting animation.:
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1812248/

You still don't get the point do you? Covid-19 causes VERY few deaths itself. And only to a very tiny number of the population that have a faulty immune system.

Which is why all the health professionals in so many nations are
agreeing with you, saying "Oh, this is not very serious at all."

Right, Tom?

--
- Frank Krygowski

On Friday, April 10, 2020 at 2:07:25 AM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote:

Yes, we've been shown counterexamples, And when we are given more info than
just patient age, they often appear to have been obese, smokers, vapers,
afflicted by other significant, or previously undetected health issues. I'm
absolutely not implying it was a patient's moral fault to fall ill. What
I'm saying is that it's immoral and unfair to clusterbomb the caged-in
citizen with personal stories of unfortunate outcomes while withholding
detailed sets of anonymized, aggregated patient data.

I think that you've neatly encapsulated my opinion. It is not fair to treat people that are young as if they are young and hence healthy. Most of the people in the US are no longer healthy. Obesity, smoking and drug use is rampant. Cancer is now common among this group, often unrecognized, and respiratory problems are so common that people are out of breath from riding an escalator and having to step on and then off of it. All you have to do is ride public transit and you are shocked at what the average health of people is and that they will not change their habits and will then cry for public health assistance. My wife used to be very physically active, broke her ankle, did not do the physical therapy she was supposed to do and now her ankle hurts if she rides a bike or even walks any distance so she avoids it even though she knows better. Because she used to be so active, she cannot do mild exercise but always will overdo it and then be so sore that she avoids it and that turns into never exercising again.

I tried leading her around on a ride and going at very moderate speeds and she loses her patience and takes off. So there is no more point in me trying anymore. I've done this for five years and have gotten exactly nowhere even though I've totally restored both her Colnago Master Piu and her Mercian..

The ex-sister-in-law has ridden coast to coast several times recently even though she has leukemia or some such that is constantly treated. My youngest stepdaughter got third place in the Jr. Olympics bike races. As training they rode coast to coast twice. (The three daughters and mother trading off driving chores.)

What does this knowledge elicit from Jay? That unless it was actually on the coast and not the closest city on the Columbia River where they started it wasn't coast to coast. His legal talents at play.

In any case the young people that dies around here turned out to have some very serious diseases from which they died and it was chalked up as coved-19. This isn't unfair of the CDC, it is criminal in my books.

On 4/10/2020 5:07 AM, Sepp Ruf wrote:
Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/9/2020 3:54 PM, Sepp Ruf wrote:
AMuzi wrote:
On 4/9/2020 12:20 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:

Are all those reported COVID deaths imaginary?

If not all, can you tell us what percentage are imaginary?

That younger cycling friend of mine is still on a
ventilator. I think it's been a couple weeks now. If this
isn't real, I should try to get word to him.

You seem to be using your struggling friend as a human shield for your cheap
rhetoric.

Well, thanks for that bit of rhetoric. I guess we'll find out if it's
cheap when the bill arrives.

After two weeks on a respirator, chances someone will come out of this alive
and healthy are said to be diminishing. Why was I rude, nonetheless? You
did not respond to Tom's questions which were about data, not individual
risk to your friend. And I had previously asked you about this younger
cyclist's actual health status and level of (possibly excessive) recent
training, but you never answered.

The guy used to live 3 miles from me. We rode together, although he's 20
years younger and did lots of rides I could no longer do. (Decades ago I
could have hung with him, but not now.)

His company transferred him to a distant state, and we in our club still
miss him and his volunteer work for the club.

He's slim, fast, a daily rider, a non-smoker and AFAIK had absolutely no
pre-existing conditions.

It's now 23 days with COVID, 16 on a respirator. But I've heard no real
news for two days.


Certain people are repeatedly saying the problem is confined to old
people or people with underlying conditions. I'm providing a
counterexample.

Yes, we've been shown counterexamples, And when we are given more info than
just patient age, they often appear to have been obese, smokers, vapers,
afflicted by other significant, or previously undetected health issues.

Not this one. Apparently not the other 50-year-old from our village that
died a few days ago. (The newspaper documented his drive-by funeral
service.)

Yes, most fatalities are older or otherwise compromised. That's true for
other diseases, floods, hurricanes, heat waves, cold snaps, pedestrian
accidents, earthquakes, forest fires, etc. Those people still count, no
matter what Tom thinks.

--
- Frank Krygowski

On Friday, April 10, 2020 at 8:40:09 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/10/2020 11:27 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 6:47:45 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:

There's this interesting animation.:
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1812248/

You still don't get the point do you? Covid-19 causes VERY few deaths itself. And only to a very tiny number of the population that have a faulty immune system.

Which is why all the health professionals in so many nations are
agreeing with you, saying "Oh, this is not very serious at all."

Right, Tom?

--
- Frank Krygowski

So it is your position that doctors regurgitating the "models" of WHO or the CDC are really in the know when presently we are over-the-hump in most locations and the death rates are 20% of "best" predictions and 8% of worst?

Do you know what you call a model like that? "A wild-ass guess". But go ahead and pretend that these people are knowledgeable and the sort of be believed.

Of course it would never occur to you to know what that makes you look like.

On 4/10/2020 11:57 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
My wife used to be very physically active, broke her ankle, did not do the physical therapy she was supposed to do and now her ankle hurts if she rides a bike or even walks any distance so she avoids it even though she knows better. Because she used to be so active, she cannot do mild exercise but always will overdo it and then be so sore that she avoids it and that turns into never exercising again.

I tried leading her around on a ride and going at very moderate speeds and she loses her patience and takes off. So there is no more point in me trying anymore. I've done this for five years and have gotten exactly nowhere even though I've totally restored both her Colnago Master Piu and her Mercian.

Let me interrupt with some bicycling advice:

Buy a tandem. It works.

--
- Frank Krygowski

On Friday, April 10, 2020 at 9:30:23 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/10/2020 11:57 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
My wife used to be very physically active, broke her ankle, did not do the physical therapy she was supposed to do and now her ankle hurts if she rides a bike or even walks any distance so she avoids it even though she knows better. Because she used to be so active, she cannot do mild exercise but always will overdo it and then be so sore that she avoids it and that turns into never exercising again.

I tried leading her around on a ride and going at very moderate speeds and she loses her patience and takes off. So there is no more point in me trying anymore. I've done this for five years and have gotten exactly nowhere even though I've totally restored both her Colnago Master Piu and her Mercian.

Let me interrupt with some bicycling advice:

Buy a tandem. It works.

Or not. There is a reason they're called divorcycles. My recommendation would be an eBike.

-- Jay Beattie.

On 4/10/2020 2:08 PM, Ted Heise wrote:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 10:42:30 -0700 (PDT),
jbeattie wrote:
On Friday, April 10, 2020 at 9:30:23 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/10/2020 11:57 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
My wife used to be very physically active, broke her ankle,
did not do the physical therapy she was supposed to do and
now her ankle hurts if she rides a bike or even walks any
distance so she avoids it even though she knows better.
Because she used to be so active, she cannot do mild
exercise but always will overdo it and then be so sore that
she avoids it and that turns into never exercising again.

I tried leading her around on a ride and going at very
moderate speeds and she loses her patience and takes off. So
there is no more point in me trying anymore. I've done this
for five years and have gotten exactly nowhere even though
I've totally restored both her Colnago Master Piu and her
Mercian.

Let me interrupt with some bicycling advice:

Buy a tandem. It works.

Or not. There is a reason they're called divorcycles.

Often, but not always. The standard rubric on the tandem list is:

"No matter what direction your relationship is headed, a tandem
will get you there faster."

I can think of six tandem couples who are or were friends of ours from
around here. No divorces in the lot. One of the guys passed away last
year in his 80s. Another couple, also in their 80s, no longer rides but
are still happily married.

I'm sure tandem divorces happen, I just don't happen to know any. Hmm.
Do they split custody?

--
- Frank Krygowski

On Friday, April 10, 2020 at 11:26:45 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/10/2020 2:08 PM, Ted Heise wrote:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 10:42:30 -0700 (PDT),
jbeattie wrote:
On Friday, April 10, 2020 at 9:30:23 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/10/2020 11:57 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
My wife used to be very physically active, broke her ankle,
did not do the physical therapy she was supposed to do and
now her ankle hurts if she rides a bike or even walks any
distance so she avoids it even though she knows better.
Because she used to be so active, she cannot do mild
exercise but always will overdo it and then be so sore that
she avoids it and that turns into never exercising again.

I tried leading her around on a ride and going at very
moderate speeds and she loses her patience and takes off. So
there is no more point in me trying anymore. I've done this
for five years and have gotten exactly nowhere even though
I've totally restored both her Colnago Master Piu and her
Mercian.

Let me interrupt with some bicycling advice:

Buy a tandem. It works.

Or not. There is a reason they're called divorcycles.

Often, but not always. The standard rubric on the tandem list is:

"No matter what direction your relationship is headed, a tandem
will get you there faster."

I can think of six tandem couples who are or were friends of ours from
around here. No divorces in the lot. One of the guys passed away last
year in his 80s. Another couple, also in their 80s, no longer rides but
are still happily married.

I'm sure tandem divorces happen, I just don't happen to know any. Hmm.
Do they split custody?

Well, not real divorces -- I would hope most couples could withstand a bad bike ride, but you do have wives who refuse. My wife refused in the middle of nearly 20% pitch because she was tired of me pushing her to drop a friend we were racing up Rocky Point. She was a racer and a hell of a climber, but she let me know when she had had enough. When you have a good stoker, you can get spoiled and push too hard. Ah, the good old days.

On the opposite end of things, I knew a woman who met and married a guy who just showed up alone on a tandem at an organized ride and recruited her to ride with him. From what I understand, it was a total chance meeting -- and the rest is history. I guess if the guy turned out to be a perv, she could have just stomped on the pedals and steered from the stoker seat. Don't **** off your stoker!

-- Jay Beattie.