Every man has a different future

And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 8:48:05 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/


I predict that I will be putting fat tires on my commuter -- and then taking them off after winter, as I do every year.

Jan shows a lot of bikes with discs but says nothing about the future of disc brakes. Will there be a resurgence of cantilever brakes on the resurgent 650B silver rims with resurgent fat tires?

-- Jay Beattie.

On Thu, 2 Jan 2020 09:31:38 -0800 (PST), jbeattie
wrote:
On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 8:48:05 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/


I predict that I will be putting fat tires on my commuter -- and then
taking them off after winter, as I do every year.

The past is often a good predictor of the future, at least when it comes
to behavior.

Jan shows a lot of bikes with discs but says nothing about the future
of disc brakes. Will there be a resurgence of cantilever brakes on
the resurgent 650B silver rims with resurgent fat tires?

Jan is wrong about the 650B thing, but there will continue to be an
increase in the 27.5" size which will take over the fat-tired road bike
market. ;-) Whether the fat-tire road bike market is here to stay is a
different question. If the Tour de France takes them on, then yes.

Predictions like this generally exhibit either wishful thinking or
marked pessimism. I've never met Jan but from his writings he seems
like he's not a pessimist (unlike me). Thus I think he missed a couple
of predictions:

Bike sales will decline as age and obesity shunt baby boomers out of
cycling and into assisted living, wheelchairs, etc. (except for most of
those who do keep riding regularly, and e-bike sales will go up as Jan
predicts); and as millenials and whatever the crowd after them is called
don't buy bikes or cars but instead use ridesharing apps and renatal
scooters/bikes.

Urban areas like mine with make the mistake of trying to build their way
out of homelessness with rental property (just like the error of trying
to build their way out of traffic congestion in the 40s-70s), resulting
in densification of populations in cities with the attendant
deterioration in infrastructure, quality of life and social behaviorn
(resulting in a resurgence in "law and order" candidates). Addressing
root causes will continue to be overlooked as a solution to problems in
favor of flashy hype-able bandaids. The result will be that the urban
cycling experience will continue to get more unpleasant and less safe,
despite trying to build half-baked cycling infrastructure. People will
ride less, except a few nuts like us and those who have little other
choice.

Hmm. Pessimist much? Yup!

On Thursday, 2 January 2020 11:48:05 UTC-5, AMuzi wrote:
And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

38mm tires as standard on roadbikes? I don't think so.

650B wheels will replace 700C? I don't think so unless the manufacturers push it and drop 700C.

Downtube shifters making a comeback? I think that's really unlikely and especially reverting to downtube friction shifters as Jan predicts.

I do think that Jan is right in that most things will turn out differently than he has predicted. LOL

As battery technology and run time improves I do think that E-bikes will gain in popularity especially if the price drops substantially for a quality E-bike, battery and replacement battery.

Cheers

On 1/2/2020 1:25 PM, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 2 Jan 2020 09:31:38 -0800 (PST), jbeattie
wrote:
On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 8:48:05 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/


I predict that I will be putting fat tires on my commuter -- and then
taking them off after winter, as I do every year.

The past is often a good predictor of the future, at least when it comes
to behavior.

Jan shows a lot of bikes with discs but says nothing about the future
of disc brakes. Will there be a resurgence of cantilever brakes on
the resurgent 650B silver rims with resurgent fat tires?

Jan is wrong about the 650B thing, but there will continue to be an
increase in the 27.5" size which will take over the fat-tired road bike
market. ;-) Whether the fat-tire road bike market is here to stay is a
different question. If the Tour de France takes them on, then yes.

Predictions like this generally exhibit either wishful thinking or
marked pessimism. I've never met Jan but from his writings he seems
like he's not a pessimist (unlike me). Thus I think he missed a couple
of predictions:

Bike sales will decline as age and obesity shunt baby boomers out of
cycling and into assisted living, wheelchairs, etc. (except for most of
those who do keep riding regularly, and e-bike sales will go up as Jan
predicts); and as millenials and whatever the crowd after them is called
don't buy bikes or cars but instead use ridesharing apps and renatal
scooters/bikes.

Urban areas like mine with make the mistake of trying to build their way
out of homelessness with rental property (just like the error of trying
to build their way out of traffic congestion in the 40s-70s), resulting
in densification of populations in cities with the attendant
deterioration in infrastructure, quality of life and social behaviorn
(resulting in a resurgence in "law and order" candidates). Addressing
root causes will continue to be overlooked as a solution to problems in
favor of flashy hype-able bandaids. The result will be that the urban
cycling experience will continue to get more unpleasant and less safe,
despite trying to build half-baked cycling infrastructure. People will
ride less, except a few nuts like us and those who have little other
choice.

Hmm. Pessimist much? Yup!


Small technical point, in memory of the now-deceased Jimmy
Yearous who often said, "When I was a Marine, you couldn't
call anything my its real name. They had a special language
called Norman Clature."

650B = 584mm ISO
"27.5" = 584mm ISO

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 11:39:33 AM UTC-8, Sir Ridesalot wrote:
On Thursday, 2 January 2020 11:48:05 UTC-5, AMuzi wrote:
And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

38mm tires as standard on roadbikes? I don't think so.




650B wheels will replace 700C? I don't think so unless the manufacturers push it and drop 700C.

Downtube shifters making a comeback? I think that's really unlikely and especially reverting to downtube friction shifters as Jan predicts.

I do think that Jan is right in that most things will turn out differently than he has predicted. LOL

As battery technology and run time improves I do think that E-bikes will gain in popularity especially if the price drops substantially for a quality E-bike, battery and replacement battery.

My prediction is that $500 USD three-bolt triple cranks are the next big thing. https://www.renehersecycles.com/shop...-triple-crank/ Those and $300 USD handlebar bags with a plastic top for maps and "cue sheet." https://www.renehersecycles.com/shop...-side-pockets/

I've purchased the exclusive rights to Cambio Corsa from Campagnolo, which is the one-true shifting system. https://tinyurl.com/tmcmuqy It is going to be huge again. No small parts to break. Even people with small hands (and long arms) find it easy to use. No broken cables or wires. You'll have to get a new frame or at least those little cog-teeth drop-outs installed, but it is the last bike you'll ever have to own.

-- Jay Beattie.

On Thursday, 2 January 2020 15:56:20 UTC-5, jbeattie wrote:
Snipped
I've purchased the exclusive rights to Cambio Corsa from Campagnolo, which is the one-true shifting system. https://tinyurl.com/tmcmuqy It is going to be huge again. No small parts to break. Even people with small hands (and long arms) find it easy to use. No broken cables or wires. You'll have to get a new frame or at least those little cog-teeth drop-outs installed, but it is the last bike you'll ever have to own.

-- Jay Beattie.

I wonder how many people know how to set those up or adjust them?

Cheers

On 1/2/2020 3:04 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 1/2/2020 1:25 PM, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 2 Jan 2020 09:31:38 -0800 (PST), jbeattie
wrote:
On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 8:48:05 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/


I predict that I will be putting fat tires on my commuter -- and then
taking them off after winter, as I do every year.

The past is often a good predictor of the future, at least when it comes
to behavior.

Jan shows a lot of bikes with discs but says nothing about the future
of disc brakes.Â* Will there be a resurgence of cantilever brakes on
the resurgent 650B silver rims with resurgent fat tires?

Jan is wrong about the 650B thing, but there will continue to be an
increase in the 27.5" size which will take over the fat-tired road bike
market.Â* ;-)Â* Whether the fat-tire road bike market is here to stay is a
different question.Â* If the Tour de France takes them on, then yes.

Predictions like this generally exhibit either wishful thinking or
marked pessimism.Â* I've never met Jan but from his writings he seems
like he's not a pessimist (unlike me).Â* Thus I think he missed a couple
of predictions:

Bike sales will decline as age and obesity shunt baby boomers out of
cycling and into assisted living, wheelchairs, etc. (except for most of
those who do keep riding regularly, and e-bike sales will go up as Jan
predicts); and as millenials and whatever the crowd after them is called
don't buy bikes or cars but instead use ridesharing apps and renatal
scooters/bikes.

Urban areas like mine with make the mistake of trying to build their way
out of homelessness with rental property (just like the error of trying
to build their way out of traffic congestion in the 40s-70s), resulting
in densification of populations in cities with the attendant
deterioration in infrastructure, quality of life and social behaviorn
(resulting in a resurgence in "law and order" candidates).Â* Addressing
root causes will continue to be overlooked as a solution to problems in
favor of flashy hype-able bandaids.Â* The result will be that the urban
cycling experience will continue to get more unpleasant and less safe,
despite trying to build half-baked cycling infrastructure.Â* People will
ride less, except a few nuts like us and those who have little other
choice.

Hmm.Â* Pessimist much?Â* Yup!


Small technical point, in memory of the now-deceased Jimmy Yearous who
often said, "When I was a Marine, you couldn't call anything my its real
name. They had a special language called Norman Clature."

650B = 584mm ISO
"27.5" = 584mm ISO

ISTR an article in _Bicycling_ magazine written by Fred DeLong back in
the 1970s: "A Defense of 650B Tires for Tandem Touring."

Seems that by whatever name, it's been percolating in the background for
a long, long time.


--
- Frank Krygowski

On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 8:04:21 PM UTC, AMuzi wrote:
On 1/2/2020 1:25 PM, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 2 Jan 2020 09:31:38 -0800 (PST), jbeattie
wrote:
On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 8:48:05 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/


I predict that I will be putting fat tires on my commuter -- and then
taking them off after winter, as I do every year.

The past is often a good predictor of the future, at least when it comes
to behavior.

Jan shows a lot of bikes with discs but says nothing about the future
of disc brakes. Will there be a resurgence of cantilever brakes on
the resurgent 650B silver rims with resurgent fat tires?

Jan is wrong about the 650B thing, but there will continue to be an
increase in the 27.5" size which will take over the fat-tired road bike
market. ;-) Whether the fat-tire road bike market is here to stay is a
different question. If the Tour de France takes them on, then yes.

Predictions like this generally exhibit either wishful thinking or
marked pessimism. I've never met Jan but from his writings he seems
like he's not a pessimist (unlike me). Thus I think he missed a couple
of predictions:

Bike sales will decline as age and obesity shunt baby boomers out of
cycling and into assisted living, wheelchairs, etc. (except for most of
those who do keep riding regularly, and e-bike sales will go up as Jan
predicts); and as millenials and whatever the crowd after them is called
don't buy bikes or cars but instead use ridesharing apps and renatal
scooters/bikes.

Urban areas like mine with make the mistake of trying to build their way
out of homelessness with rental property (just like the error of trying
to build their way out of traffic congestion in the 40s-70s), resulting
in densification of populations in cities with the attendant
deterioration in infrastructure, quality of life and social behaviorn
(resulting in a resurgence in "law and order" candidates). Addressing
root causes will continue to be overlooked as a solution to problems in
favor of flashy hype-able bandaids. The result will be that the urban
cycling experience will continue to get more unpleasant and less safe,
despite trying to build half-baked cycling infrastructure. People will
ride less, except a few nuts like us and those who have little other
choice.

Hmm. Pessimist much? Yup!


Small technical point, in memory of the now-deceased Jimmy
Yearous who often said, "When I was a Marine, you couldn't
call anything my its real name. They had a special language
called Norman Clature."

650B = 584mm ISO
"27.5" = 584mm ISO

Eh? Of course there's a difference. It's called marketing. Each cyclist needs at least one pair of each of 650B and 27.5" wheels, preferably high-margin carbon items. -- AJ

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 9:31:41 AM UTC-8, jbeattie wrote:
On Thursday, January 2, 2020 at 8:48:05 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
And some are very different!

https://www.renehersecycles.com/blog/


I predict that I will be putting fat tires on my commuter -- and then taking them off after winter, as I do every year.

Jan shows a lot of bikes with discs but says nothing about the future of disc brakes. Will there be a resurgence of cantilever brakes on the resurgent 650B silver rims with resurgent fat tires?

-- Jay Beattie.

https://www.koin.com/news/oregon/fed...e-in-homeless/