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#102
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Fun with exponents
On Wed, 27 May 2020 13:35:50 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 12:13 PM, jbeattie wrote: On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 9:42:34 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself from a viral epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't think that's what you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also seem to have changed your position on Dr Fauci from: "Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about." to: "I do not deny Fauci that much." That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on infectious diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him something you didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to have an opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled to discount your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your opinion about Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of someone in the US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to handle a pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China that are substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but such experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is bureau eliminated by the Trump administration: "A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump administration amid the coronavirus crisis" https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5 No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that they know anything for the simple reason that they are interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than some stupid biased punk. Your homework, Tom: !) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that because you obviously know very, very little about him. 2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux News managed to dig up. Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci. We'll even give bonus points for a little more work: 3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology, ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine, sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know - all the other things about which you, as a high school dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained, experienced, and recognized experts. Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and political survivor who knows something but surely not everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has different opinions but gets no media traction: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/ Knows something? Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong, which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience, and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences based on risk tolerance. The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the US to be a good control. Personally, I don't care if a lot of people die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people who I don't know. -- Jay Beattie. I have no animus toward Dr Fauci. There just aren't enough Italians in the world. But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt and call it well intentioned, but his various positions (no mask, maybe mask, mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no confidence. His famous statements "Americans need not worry" , "No worse than the flu" and so on are endlessly repeated and need no further comment from me. And we do indeed have real world real time policy comparisons. Mr DeSantis rigorously and immediately protected old age homes, rehab centers, assisted living facilities and retirement communities ending with a small fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings and hope of working citizens and small business owners. In January, Tom Cotton was saying: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't. Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but humans are a widely variable lot and none are perfect. (Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either) So what is the solution? Just say "**** it" and go on about your business as normal? As I believe I have previously written, Thailand has been able to trace nearly every virus case to it's source and in the majority of the early cases were traced to places and events where a large number or people congregated.Once lock down was in force, and enforced, the numbers of new cases dropped dramatically and were almost wholly limited to single new infections between family members. -- cheers, John B. |
#103
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Fun with exponents
On Wed, 27 May 2020 08:51:08 -0700 (PDT), wrote:
On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 8:28:14 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote: In today's news: https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/ Which could happen, But it won't. Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though that may be. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 https://vivomix.com/2020/05/08/dr-an...ts-fact-check/ While there are many ifs, ands and buts, the clearly substantiated claims that Fauci and the CDC was profiting on supposed "cures" that were not properly tested is not open to argument. Yes Sir! While there are many ifs, ands and buts, the clearly substantiated facts are that Tommy boy doesn't know what he is talking about and tells lies. -- cheers, John B. |
#104
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Fun with exponents
On 5/27/2020 7:21 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 11:42:30 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself from a viral epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't think that's what you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also seem to have changed your position on Dr Fauci from: "Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about." to: "I do not deny Fauci that much." That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on infectious diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him something you didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to have an opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled to discount your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your opinion about Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of someone in the US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to handle a pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China that are substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but such experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is bureau eliminated by the Trump administration: "A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump administration amid the coronavirus crisis" https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5 No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that they know anything for the simple reason that they are interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than some stupid biased punk. Your homework, Tom: !) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that because you obviously know very, very little about him. 2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux News managed to dig up. Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci. We'll even give bonus points for a little more work: 3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology, ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine, sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know - all the other things about which you, as a high school dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained, experienced, and recognized experts. Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and political survivor who knows something but surely not everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has different opinions but gets no media traction: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/ And yet, countries that did institute a lock down, in a timely manner, have noticeably lower cases and deaths. (please note the phrase "timely manner") Italy did and lost many. Japan did not and lost few. Sweden is not out of line to her neighbors and yet still has some GDP remaining. There's no correlation. You can imply one as you will but it's not clear at all that such relationship exists. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
#105
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Fun with exponents
On 5/27/2020 7:44 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 13:35:50 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 12:13 PM, jbeattie wrote: On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 9:42:34 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself from a viral epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't think that's what you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also seem to have changed your position on Dr Fauci from: "Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about." to: "I do not deny Fauci that much." That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on infectious diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him something you didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to have an opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled to discount your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your opinion about Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of someone in the US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to handle a pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China that are substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but such experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is bureau eliminated by the Trump administration: "A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump administration amid the coronavirus crisis" https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5 No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that they know anything for the simple reason that they are interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than some stupid biased punk. Your homework, Tom: !) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that because you obviously know very, very little about him. 2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux News managed to dig up. Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci. We'll even give bonus points for a little more work: 3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology, ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine, sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know - all the other things about which you, as a high school dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained, experienced, and recognized experts. Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and political survivor who knows something but surely not everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has different opinions but gets no media traction: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/ Knows something? Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong, which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience, and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences based on risk tolerance. The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the US to be a good control. Personally, I don't care if a lot of people die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people who I don't know. -- Jay Beattie. I have no animus toward Dr Fauci. There just aren't enough Italians in the world. But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt and call it well intentioned, but his various positions (no mask, maybe mask, mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no confidence. His famous statements "Americans need not worry" , "No worse than the flu" and so on are endlessly repeated and need no further comment from me. And we do indeed have real world real time policy comparisons. Mr DeSantis rigorously and immediately protected old age homes, rehab centers, assisted living facilities and retirement communities ending with a small fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings and hope of working citizens and small business owners. In January, Tom Cotton was saying: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't. Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but humans are a widely variable lot and none are perfect. (Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either) So what is the solution? Just say "**** it" and go on about your business as normal? As I believe I have previously written, Thailand has been able to trace nearly every virus case to it's source and in the majority of the early cases were traced to places and events where a large number or people congregated.Once lock down was in force, and enforced, the numbers of new cases dropped dramatically and were almost wholly limited to single new infections between family members. Again, it is not heartless or dismissive of the dead to explain to adult citizen any facts, where known, and advise them. Japan did that very successfully without forcibly closing businesses and thereby ruining careers, savings, investments and various supply chains. The US of A has among us children and idiots. Treating all of us as children or idiots is not a good start to any policy. As bad as our situation is, exacerbated by draconian (perhaps unconstitutional[1] ) abuses of liberty, the butcher's bill is yet to come. Suffering so far is minor compared to the next several years. Most people have absolutely no inkling of the vast damages and lost wealth we will struggle mightily to replace. And it's not us alone. American Christians in South America and Africa are warning already of diminished food/medical/infrastructure transfers. The problems of a $trillion-plus lost US productivity is larger and broader than you might at first imagine. [1] There are several examples of quarantine laws or vaccination rules upheld (Jacobson v MA). This is not that. There aren't AFAIK prior examples of restricted liberty in order to deflect the nation's attention from an actual problem. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
#106
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Fun with exponents
On Wed, 27 May 2020 19:53:38 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 7:21 PM, John B. wrote: On Wed, 27 May 2020 11:42:30 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself from a viral epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't think that's what you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also seem to have changed your position on Dr Fauci from: "Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about." to: "I do not deny Fauci that much." That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on infectious diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him something you didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to have an opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled to discount your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your opinion about Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of someone in the US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to handle a pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China that are substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but such experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is bureau eliminated by the Trump administration: "A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump administration amid the coronavirus crisis" https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5 No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that they know anything for the simple reason that they are interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than some stupid biased punk. Your homework, Tom: !) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that because you obviously know very, very little about him. 2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux News managed to dig up. Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci. We'll even give bonus points for a little more work: 3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology, ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine, sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know - all the other things about which you, as a high school dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained, experienced, and recognized experts. Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and political survivor who knows something but surely not everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has different opinions but gets no media traction: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/ And yet, countries that did institute a lock down, in a timely manner, have noticeably lower cases and deaths. (please note the phrase "timely manner") Italy did and lost many. Japan did not and lost few. Sweden is not out of line to her neighbors and yet still has some GDP remaining. RE Japan, no they didn't invoke a formal lock down but they did encourage stores to close and mad some sort of payment to those that did. They did trace the origin of the disease in individuals. They did reduce person-to-person contact, the government has instructed the public to refrain from going to high-risk environments (the Three Cs: closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings) and events involving movement between different areas of the country. It emphasized extreme caution when coming in contact with the elderly. The government also promoted such work-style reforms as teleworking and staggering commuting hours, while improving the country's distance learning infrastructure for children The difference is perhaps that the Japanese people are more compliant and tend to do what the government suggests while the normal U.S. reaction, at least as evidenced here, is a sort of "f++k it", I want to do what I want to do attitude. There's no correlation. You can imply one as you will but it's not clear at all that such relationship exists. -- cheers, John B. |
#107
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Fun with exponents
On Wed, 27 May 2020 17:52:39 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 3:58 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:56:22 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote: Bicycle related drivel: Water bottle fail. I grabbed it, and the now brittle plastic crumbled. My guess(tm) is it was 30 years old. Argh. http://www.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/water%20bottle%20fail.html Blank page. So much for bibycle related content. I updated my photo album software from Jalbum 20.0 to the latest 20.1. I also added the above photo. The new and improved release did some odd things and took far too long to coplete the upload. The next morning, I discovered that all the photos on my web pile were gone. I have backups, but until I put the mess back together, no photos. Sorry. I saw it yesterday. I also saw it yesterday. It was coming out of some manner of web cache and not directly from the 1and1.com server. Hard to tell what's happening as Shodan shows a weird server name: 74-208-236-55.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com https://www.ip-tracker.org/locator/ip-lookup.php?ip=74-208-236-133.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com Anyway, when the cache flushed overnight, all my photos went with it. I'm resisting the temptation to completely change the structure of the web site, but suspect it will be necessary anyway. Typical outgassed polymer failure. Thanks. The bottom of the bottle says it's LDPE (low-density polyethylene) and was made in 1992 (28 years old). I've seen plastic crumble, but not quite the way this bottle decided to crumble. Google couldn't find anything useful under "outgassed polymer failure". Could you point me to a web page where I can read about it? I've never seen anything crumble this badly and I'm curious as to the failure mechanism. (If you're busy, don't bother). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
#108
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Fun with exponents
On Wed, 27 May 2020 20:15:03 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 7:44 PM, John B. wrote: On Wed, 27 May 2020 13:35:50 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 12:13 PM, jbeattie wrote: On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 9:42:34 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself from a viral epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't think that's what you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also seem to have changed your position on Dr Fauci from: "Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about." to: "I do not deny Fauci that much." That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on infectious diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him something you didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to have an opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled to discount your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your opinion about Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of someone in the US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to handle a pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China that are substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but such experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is bureau eliminated by the Trump administration: "A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump administration amid the coronavirus crisis" https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5 No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that they know anything for the simple reason that they are interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than some stupid biased punk. Your homework, Tom: !) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that because you obviously know very, very little about him. 2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux News managed to dig up. Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci. We'll even give bonus points for a little more work: 3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology, ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine, sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know - all the other things about which you, as a high school dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained, experienced, and recognized experts. Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and political survivor who knows something but surely not everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has different opinions but gets no media traction: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/ Knows something? Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong, which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience, and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences based on risk tolerance. The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the US to be a good control. Personally, I don't care if a lot of people die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people who I don't know. -- Jay Beattie. I have no animus toward Dr Fauci. There just aren't enough Italians in the world. But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt and call it well intentioned, but his various positions (no mask, maybe mask, mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no confidence. His famous statements "Americans need not worry" , "No worse than the flu" and so on are endlessly repeated and need no further comment from me. And we do indeed have real world real time policy comparisons. Mr DeSantis rigorously and immediately protected old age homes, rehab centers, assisted living facilities and retirement communities ending with a small fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings and hope of working citizens and small business owners. In January, Tom Cotton was saying: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't. Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but humans are a widely variable lot and none are perfect. (Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either) So what is the solution? Just say "**** it" and go on about your business as normal? As I believe I have previously written, Thailand has been able to trace nearly every virus case to it's source and in the majority of the early cases were traced to places and events where a large number or people congregated.Once lock down was in force, and enforced, the numbers of new cases dropped dramatically and were almost wholly limited to single new infections between family members. Again, it is not heartless or dismissive of the dead to explain to adult citizen any facts, where known, and advise them. Japan did that very successfully without forcibly closing businesses and thereby ruining careers, savings, investments and various supply chains. The US of A has among us children and idiots. Treating all of us as children or idiots is not a good start to any policy. As bad as our situation is, exacerbated by draconian (perhaps unconstitutional[1] ) abuses of liberty, the butcher's bill is yet to come. Suffering so far is minor compared to the next several years. Most people have absolutely no inkling of the vast damages and lost wealth we will struggle mightily to replace. And it's not us alone. American Christians in South America and Africa are warning already of diminished food/medical/infrastructure transfers. The problems of a $trillion-plus lost US productivity is larger and broader than you might at first imagine. [1] There are several examples of quarantine laws or vaccination rules upheld (Jacobson v MA). This is not that. There aren't AFAIK prior examples of restricted liberty in order to deflect the nation's attention from an actual problem. As I have said before, it is easy to wave your hands in the air and shout, "Oh! that's wrong. But what is the solution? Keep the stores and factories open? And what happens? Well, actually nobody knows but, and again I'm using something that happened here and was documented, a single boxing match attended by a large number of people resulted in spreading the virus to more than hundred individuals. A single infected employee, who does not yet display symptoms could, possibly, infect every customer that enters your place of business as well as you and all your employees. Is that a better solution? -- cheers, John B. |
#109
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Fun with exponents
On 5/27/2020 8:28 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 17:52:39 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 3:58 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:56:22 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote: Bicycle related drivel: Water bottle fail. I grabbed it, and the now brittle plastic crumbled. My guess(tm) is it was 30 years old. Argh. http://www.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/water%20bottle%20fail.html Blank page. So much for bibycle related content. I updated my photo album software from Jalbum 20.0 to the latest 20.1. I also added the above photo. The new and improved release did some odd things and took far too long to coplete the upload. The next morning, I discovered that all the photos on my web pile were gone. I have backups, but until I put the mess back together, no photos. Sorry. I saw it yesterday. I also saw it yesterday. It was coming out of some manner of web cache and not directly from the 1and1.com server. Hard to tell what's happening as Shodan shows a weird server name: 74-208-236-55.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com https://www.ip-tracker.org/locator/ip-lookup.php?ip=74-208-236-133.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com Anyway, when the cache flushed overnight, all my photos went with it. I'm resisting the temptation to completely change the structure of the web site, but suspect it will be necessary anyway. Typical outgassed polymer failure. Thanks. The bottom of the bottle says it's LDPE (low-density polyethylene) and was made in 1992 (28 years old). I've seen plastic crumble, but not quite the way this bottle decided to crumble. Google couldn't find anything useful under "outgassed polymer failure". Could you point me to a web page where I can read about it? I've never seen anything crumble this badly and I'm curious as to the failure mechanism. (If you're busy, don't bother). I first ran across that phenomenon in an article (mid 1990s?) about the Smithsonian's failed efforts to preserve 1950s-1960s toys and consumer products. Plastics have a volatile plasticizer which just goes away, much like the lubricant in grease which leaves only the crusty soap binder. a quick search gives many results for buying pasticizers. This seems relevant but I can't view past the 1st paragraph: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/n...suits-science/ -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
#110
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Fun with exponents
On Wed, 27 May 2020 18:28:47 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
O I also saw it yesterday. It was coming out of some manner of web cache and not directly from the 1and1.com server. Hard to tell what's happening as Shodan shows a weird server name: 74-208-236-55.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com Err, 55.236.208,74 is probably the IPv4 address for elastic-ssl.ui-r.com (I didn't check it). Maybe some ones DNS just barfed. |
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