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  #101  
Old July 10th 20, 08:58 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Ralph Barone[_4_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 853
Default Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike

Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes:

On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK
wrote:

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes:

On Wed, 8 Jul 2020 06:05:11 +0000 (UTC), Ralph Barone
wrote:

Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes:

On Tue, 7 Jul 2020 13:09:37 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 3:12:13 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 7/3/2020 3:53 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/3/2020 3:10 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 8:47:36 AM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote:
AMuzi wrote:
https://710wor.iheart.com/content/20...rage-incident/


Detroit needs a mayor who will campaign donating Chinese
safety flasher toys
to anyone in sight.

With any luck some jerks will take the lesson to heart.

Like, "Don't go into a Detroit traffic argument armed
with a knife!"

Exactly, the driver should have been pack'n. It should
have been some Quentin Tarantino-esqe shootout.

This definitely proves the superiority of handlebar
baskets. Just keep your Glock in there with your posies
and donettes.

Well, there's a tradeoff between a handlebar basket and a
handlebar bag. With the basket, the gun's easily visible but
it bounces around. Sometimes it slides under the donettes,
slowing your draw time.

The handlebar bag can have a special holster pocket. But
then there are tradeoffs between an inside pocket over an
outside pocket. Inside for concealed carry, but you lose a
second flipping the bag open. Outside for open carry, but
some people get touchy about that.

Being a good-old-boy American bicyclist can be complicated!
That's why most of them drive pickups.


Cyclists's pistols were a very common accessory at one time.
It's not an overly complex problem. Upscale model at 12
shillings:

https://onlinebicyclemuseum.co.uk/wp...ist-pistol.jpg

N.B. Tom in Oakland, tagline: "I fear no tramp."

more, many with folding trigger for pocket carry:
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bicycle+pi...ages&ia=images

That said, urban environments present almost infinite
possibilities for trouble and for liability.
--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

While someone like Frank might hurry his own death along by trying to
walk the streets of Oakland I have people offering help whenever
they believe they can be of some.

Last Wednesday I was talking to a rich man, like most rich a large
part was inherited. His Grandmother had a farm in the bay area not
long after the civil war when food was big business. And also like
most rich he spreads it around as much as possible. He is a surgeon
and works for Doctors without Borders. He works mostly in Africa and
he talked about how much healthier African Children are than
Americans because their immune systems are under constant
challenge. Perhaps this is the reason that I have such good
health. Traipsing through the salt marshes when I was a kid. I
suppose a large part of these marshes were formed as part of the
run-off from the cities which could not have been very healthy.

We discussed the idea that a cloth mask could possibly even slow down
a molecule like a virus and we both got a good laugh out of that (I
suppose that he definitely would not fall under Frank's category of
"medical expert" I have the distinct impression that what Frank
thinks of as an expert is anyone that sits on their ass and reads an
occasional study. Frank appears to be unaware that most studies are
absolute garbage but then I suppose that is what he taught in
college. Poor students. Though they probably learned the art of
engineering by practice and not by his meanderings.

Virtually everything that has been visited upon this country by the
Democrats has been a virtual curse. While walking through those salt
marshes I was accompanied by an American kid of Japanese
extraction. He grew up in Roosevelt's concentration camps. These
were formed in large part so that Roosevelt who was one of the most
racist people that ever lived could allow his friends to seize the
property of the Japanese/Americans who were rather prosperous up to
that time.

Exactly what do you suppose goes through the head of a man who has a
large guaranteed income when he would tell the working man that he
cannot work and cannot provide for his family and must do insane
things like wear a mask in public unless he is robbing a bank?
Social distancing is much like wearing a mask - an infected person
has a cloud of virus molecules surrounding his head and contrary to
the highly educated Dr. Fauci's thoughts, these thing do not fall to
the ground like a brick dropped off a building. They float pretty
much in place in a stream along which you are walking. That means
that someone could pass through that very slowly dispersing cloud
minutes after you have passed and be exposed.

The entire Democrat Party has retained some small remnants of power
though the constant threats and fear. Awful environmental impact
that is barely measurable, man-made climate change that doesn't
exist and now a virus that is virtually harmless.

No doubt you are correct and the figures prove it. The U.S. is leading
the world!

In the larger countries, with a population of 200 million or more, the
U.S. is head and shoulders above the rest with 3,085,705 cases of the
virus, some 3 times the next highest country; 133,808 deaths, double
the numbers of the next closest country;404 deaths per million - y'all
are slipping a bit here, only about 30% higher and 9,321/million
cases, again slipping back to only about 1-1/4 times the next highest
country.

Just think, 50% more deaths due to the Virus than all of the U.S.'s
military deaths in the past 70 years, from the Korean war to the
present.

But not much more, and less per capita, than died in the
pandemics of 1957
and 1968.


But note that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 had one important difference.
They’re over, while the US is still working through their first wave of the
current pandemic. Implying that things aren’t that bad now compared to 1957
or 1968 is akin to publishing the death toll from an airplane crash before
the plane hits the ground.

Too true, in fact from the numbers I see the daily new case rate is
higher then at any time previous. On 7 Jul it seems to have been
55,442 new cases. Nope, I was wrong, the highest number of new cases
seems to have been on 3 Jul with 58,910 new cases.

The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of
the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost
entirely by politics.

I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact
that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who
can get Covid.

Andy


But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the
virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-)

New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351...


Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on. It seems that
something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic
transmission. That's not to say that no one will get it afterwards, but
that the infection rate will not continue to increase.



That statement makes no sense to me. Are you saying that if less than 10%
of the population is currently infected, the rate of infection won’t
increase, or are you saying that once 10% of the population has had it (and
is hopefully immune), the infection rate will not increase?

If it’s the first interpretation, then how do pandemics start, since you
always start with 1 infected person?

If it’s the second interpretation, I believe that given the spreading rate
of COVID, that you need to have around 60% immunity in the general
population before the infection rate starts declining substantially.

Ads
  #102  
Old July 10th 20, 10:16 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Radey Shouman
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,747
Default Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike

Rolf Mantel writes:

Am 10.07.2020 um 18:16 schrieb Radey Shouman:
John B. writes:

On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK
wrote:

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote:


The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of
the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost
entirely by politics.

I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact
that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who
can get Covid.

But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the
virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-)

New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351...


Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on. It seems that

^^^^^^^^^^^^
I think this is a synonym for "I hope that".


You can think that. It might even be true.

something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic
transmission.


In the European hotspots, they found a significantly higher proportion
infected (numbers from memory):

Ischgl 42%
Gangelt 30%
Madrid 20%
London 15%

We have good evidence that social distancing in combination with
track-and-trace stops epidemic transmission (e.g. in Germany, three
weeks after the Tönnies meat factory outbreak with 1,600 infected, the
transmission rate in the relevant disctrics is back to "uncritical");
lockdown is only needed when the number of unrelated local incidents
is too high for a sucessful track-and-trace.


Is track and trace working effectively in Germany? I think the chances
of it working in the US are near zero. Public trust in such schemes is
just not there.

Due to the extreme "super-spreader" nature of the epidemic, there is
no indication whether 5% infected or 50% infected would be necessary
to stop the epidemic without track-and-trace and without social
distancing (to be honest, this kind of experiment is too risky and
expensive for us Europeans, we're happy that USA and Brasil are
sufficiently suicidal to try this out for us).


So the US and Brasil are suicidal but Spain and the UK were not?
  #103  
Old July 10th 20, 10:22 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Radey Shouman
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,747
Default Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike

Ralph Barone writes:

Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes:

On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK
wrote:

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes:

On Wed, 8 Jul 2020 06:05:11 +0000 (UTC), Ralph Barone
wrote:

Radey Shouman wrote:
John B. writes:

On Tue, 7 Jul 2020 13:09:37 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 3:12:13 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 7/3/2020 3:53 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 7/3/2020 3:10 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Friday, July 3, 2020 at 8:47:36 AM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote:
AMuzi wrote:
https://710wor.iheart.com/content/20...rage-incident/


Detroit needs a mayor who will campaign donating Chinese
safety flasher toys
to anyone in sight.

With any luck some jerks will take the lesson to heart.

Like, "Don't go into a Detroit traffic argument armed
with a knife!"

Exactly, the driver should have been pack'n. It should
have been some Quentin Tarantino-esqe shootout.

This definitely proves the superiority of handlebar
baskets. Just keep your Glock in there with your posies
and donettes.

Well, there's a tradeoff between a handlebar basket and a
handlebar bag. With the basket, the gun's easily visible but
it bounces around. Sometimes it slides under the donettes,
slowing your draw time.

The handlebar bag can have a special holster pocket. But
then there are tradeoffs between an inside pocket over an
outside pocket. Inside for concealed carry, but you lose a
second flipping the bag open. Outside for open carry, but
some people get touchy about that.

Being a good-old-boy American bicyclist can be complicated!
That's why most of them drive pickups.


Cyclists's pistols were a very common accessory at one time.
It's not an overly complex problem. Upscale model at 12
shillings:

https://onlinebicyclemuseum.co.uk/wp...ist-pistol.jpg

N.B. Tom in Oakland, tagline: "I fear no tramp."

more, many with folding trigger for pocket carry:
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bicycle+pi...ages&ia=images

That said, urban environments present almost infinite
possibilities for trouble and for liability.
--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

While someone like Frank might hurry his own death along by trying to
walk the streets of Oakland I have people offering help whenever
they believe they can be of some.

Last Wednesday I was talking to a rich man, like most rich a large
part was inherited. His Grandmother had a farm in the bay area not
long after the civil war when food was big business. And also like
most rich he spreads it around as much as possible. He is a surgeon
and works for Doctors without Borders. He works mostly in Africa and
he talked about how much healthier African Children are than
Americans because their immune systems are under constant
challenge. Perhaps this is the reason that I have such good
health. Traipsing through the salt marshes when I was a kid. I
suppose a large part of these marshes were formed as part of the
run-off from the cities which could not have been very healthy.

We discussed the idea that a cloth mask could possibly even slow down
a molecule like a virus and we both got a good laugh out of that (I
suppose that he definitely would not fall under Frank's category of
"medical expert" I have the distinct impression that what Frank
thinks of as an expert is anyone that sits on their ass and reads an
occasional study. Frank appears to be unaware that most studies are
absolute garbage but then I suppose that is what he taught in
college. Poor students. Though they probably learned the art of
engineering by practice and not by his meanderings.

Virtually everything that has been visited upon this country by the
Democrats has been a virtual curse. While walking through those salt
marshes I was accompanied by an American kid of Japanese
extraction. He grew up in Roosevelt's concentration camps. These
were formed in large part so that Roosevelt who was one of the most
racist people that ever lived could allow his friends to seize the
property of the Japanese/Americans who were rather prosperous up to
that time.

Exactly what do you suppose goes through the head of a man who has a
large guaranteed income when he would tell the working man that he
cannot work and cannot provide for his family and must do insane
things like wear a mask in public unless he is robbing a bank?
Social distancing is much like wearing a mask - an infected person
has a cloud of virus molecules surrounding his head and contrary to
the highly educated Dr. Fauci's thoughts, these thing do not fall to
the ground like a brick dropped off a building. They float pretty
much in place in a stream along which you are walking. That means
that someone could pass through that very slowly dispersing cloud
minutes after you have passed and be exposed.

The entire Democrat Party has retained some small remnants of power
though the constant threats and fear. Awful environmental impact
that is barely measurable, man-made climate change that doesn't
exist and now a virus that is virtually harmless.

No doubt you are correct and the figures prove it. The U.S. is leading
the world!

In the larger countries, with a population of 200 million or more, the
U.S. is head and shoulders above the rest with 3,085,705 cases of the
virus, some 3 times the next highest country; 133,808 deaths, double
the numbers of the next closest country;404 deaths per million - y'all
are slipping a bit here, only about 30% higher and 9,321/million
cases, again slipping back to only about 1-1/4 times the next highest
country.

Just think, 50% more deaths due to the Virus than all of the U.S.'s
military deaths in the past 70 years, from the Korean war to the
present.

But not much more, and less per capita, than died in the
pandemics of 1957
and 1968.


But note that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 had one important
difference.
They’re over, while the US is still working through their first
wave of the
current pandemic. Implying that things aren’t that bad now
compared to 1957
or 1968 is akin to publishing the death toll from an airplane
crash before
the plane hits the ground.

Too true, in fact from the numbers I see the daily new case rate is
higher then at any time previous. On 7 Jul it seems to have been
55,442 new cases. Nope, I was wrong, the highest number of new cases
seems to have been on 3 Jul with 58,910 new cases.

The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of
the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost
entirely by politics.

I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact
that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who
can get Covid.

Andy

But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the
virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-)

New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351...


Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on. It seems that
something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic
transmission. That's not to say that no one will get it afterwards, but
that the infection rate will not continue to increase.



That statement makes no sense to me. Are you saying that if less than 10%
of the population is currently infected, the rate of infection won’t
increase, or are you saying that once 10% of the population has had it (and
is hopefully immune), the infection rate will not increase?


Observations of epidemic outbreaks of covid-19 seem to show that once
roughly 6-10% of the population has been exposed to the virus, per
immunological tests, that the outbreak has passed it's peak.

If it’s the first interpretation, then how do pandemics start, since you
always start with 1 infected person?


With one infected person almost no one has been exposed to the virus.

If it’s the second interpretation, I believe that given the spreading rate
of COVID, that you need to have around 60% immunity in the general
population before the infection rate starts declining substantially.


I don't think that the data has shown that. One thing we have seen is
that 90% of all pandemic models are garbage.
  #104  
Old July 10th 20, 11:50 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
AMuzi
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 13,447
Default Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike

On 7/10/2020 4:16 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Rolf Mantel writes:

Am 10.07.2020 um 18:16 schrieb Radey Shouman:
John B. writes:

On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK
wrote:

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote:


The death rate, however, continues to decrease. Popular coverage of
the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost
entirely by politics.

I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact
that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who
can get Covid.

But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the
virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-)

New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351...

Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on. It seems that

^^^^^^^^^^^^
I think this is a synonym for "I hope that".


You can think that. It might even be true.

something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic
transmission.


In the European hotspots, they found a significantly higher proportion
infected (numbers from memory):

Ischgl 42%
Gangelt 30%
Madrid 20%
London 15%

We have good evidence that social distancing in combination with
track-and-trace stops epidemic transmission (e.g. in Germany, three
weeks after the Tönnies meat factory outbreak with 1,600 infected, the
transmission rate in the relevant disctrics is back to "uncritical");
lockdown is only needed when the number of unrelated local incidents
is too high for a sucessful track-and-trace.


Is track and trace working effectively in Germany? I think the chances
of it working in the US are near zero. Public trust in such schemes is
just not there.

Due to the extreme "super-spreader" nature of the epidemic, there is
no indication whether 5% infected or 50% infected would be necessary
to stop the epidemic without track-and-trace and without social
distancing (to be honest, this kind of experiment is too risky and
expensive for us Europeans, we're happy that USA and Brasil are
sufficiently suicidal to try this out for us).


So the US and Brasil are suicidal but Spain and the UK were not?



" I think the chances of it working in the US are near zero. Public trust in such schemes is

just not there. "

I certainly cannot speak for Americans generally but
personally I Could never resist the temptation for social
engineering, i.e., a lie.

'What was I doing yesterday? Gay sex with the governor. Go
quarantine that jerk for a couple of weeks.'


--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971


  #105  
Old July 11th 20, 01:29 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
John B.[_3_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 5,697
Default Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike

On Fri, 10 Jul 2020 14:41:01 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote:

On 7/10/2020 1:05 PM, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 10.07.2020 um 18:16 schrieb Radey Shouman:
John B. writes:

On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 23:43:34 -0700 (PDT), AK
wrote:

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:49:41 AM UTC-5, Radey Shouman wrote:


The death rate, however, continues to decrease.* Popular coverage of
the pandemic in the US, like everthing else, is now driven almost
entirely by politics.

I feel that the death rate will continue to decrease due to the fact
that the more folks that get Covid, the less folks that are left who
can get Covid.

But of course, in the U.S. there are now 3,213,283 who have caught the
virus which leaves something like 327 million who haven't :-)

New cases yesterday were ~54,351 so 327 million divided by 54,351...

Not all are equally likely to get it, or to pass it on.* It seems that

************************************************** ******** ^^^^^^^^^^^^
I think this is a synonym for "I hope that".

something less than 10% infected is needed to stop epidemic
transmission.


In the European hotspots, they found a significantly higher proportion
infected (numbers from memory):

Ischgl* 42%
Gangelt 30%
Madrid* 20%
London* 15%

We have good evidence that social distancing in combination with
track-and-trace stops epidemic transmission (e.g. in Germany, three
weeks after the Tönnies meat factory outbreak with 1,600 infected, the
transmission rate in the relevant disctrics is back to "uncritical");
lockdown is only needed when the number of unrelated local incidents is
too high for a sucessful track-and-trace.

Due to the extreme "super-spreader" nature of the epidemic, there is no
indication whether 5% infected or 50% infected would be necessary to
stop the epidemic without track-and-trace and without social distancing
(to be honest, this kind of experiment is too risky and expensive for us
Europeans, we're happy that USA and Brasil are sufficiently suicidal to
try this out for us).


Here in the U.S., a problem with track & trace is the significant number
of people who say "I don't have to tell you where I was."

This culture is independent, "every man for himself" to a fault. There's
relatively little "I'll do this for the good of the community." Which, I
think, is sad.


Here, nearly all cases were tracked back to their origin and as a
general statement nearly all were traced back to two large gatherings,
Boxing matches in Bangkok.

And, it might be added, "locking down" and the other stringent
measures, as taken here, do limit the spread of the disease. It has
now been forty-something days since the last resident in Thailand was
diagnosed with the virus and all recent cases have been among Thais
returning from foreign countries who arrive with the disease and all
new arrivals go straight into quarantine when they arrive.
--
Cheers,

John B.

  #106  
Old July 11th 20, 11:52 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Joy Beeson
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,638
Default Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike

On Fri, 10 Jul 2020 11:47:58 +0700, John B.
wrote:

I'm only telling you what your reputation is :-) I've been asked quite
a number of times in various SEA countries if it is true that in
"America" people send their parents to an old age home when they get
old?

I have no idea there that comes from but it does seem prevalent in at
least three of the SEA countries.


And our old folks do die in nursing homes. My grandmother, my mother,
and my oldest sister all died in nursing homes, and my nephew was
forced to commit my second-oldest sister when she got to be too much
for her minder to handle.

Mom committed herself after she fell and had to wait for the paperboy
to rescue her, and was sharp as a tack to the end, but my grandmother
wanted to go home to be taken care of by her mother, and my sisters'
conditions seriously bite into the hope I was given by my mother's
fate.

My father's mother was handed round from child to child -- having had
seven children survive helped spread the strain -- but I don't know
any more, save that Mom once said that her dementia made her hard to
live with. Everyone who can remember her is either dead or insane.

I do remember sitting in front of the fireplace being taught how to
make paper spills to light a candle from a fire. Since I must have
been well under six years old at the time, this may have been part of
her dementia.

If I can't die right here in the same bedroom where Lois found my
mother-in-law, I'd rather be taken to Grace Village than be handed
round among the neices and nephews.

--
Joy Beeson
joy beeson at comcast dot net
http://wlweather.net/PAGEJOY/


  #107  
Old July 12th 20, 01:20 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
John B.[_3_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 5,697
Default Don't hassle me - I'm riding my bike

On Sat, 11 Jul 2020 18:52:14 -0400, Joy Beeson
wrote:

On Fri, 10 Jul 2020 11:47:58 +0700, John B.
wrote:

I'm only telling you what your reputation is :-) I've been asked quite
a number of times in various SEA countries if it is true that in
"America" people send their parents to an old age home when they get
old?

I have no idea there that comes from but it does seem prevalent in at
least three of the SEA countries.


And our old folks do die in nursing homes. My grandmother, my mother,
and my oldest sister all died in nursing homes, and my nephew was
forced to commit my second-oldest sister when she got to be too much
for her minder to handle.

Mom committed herself after she fell and had to wait for the paperboy
to rescue her, and was sharp as a tack to the end, but my grandmother
wanted to go home to be taken care of by her mother, and my sisters'
conditions seriously bite into the hope I was given by my mother's
fate.

My father's mother was handed round from child to child -- having had
seven children survive helped spread the strain -- but I don't know
any more, save that Mom once said that her dementia made her hard to
live with. Everyone who can remember her is either dead or insane.

I do remember sitting in front of the fireplace being taught how to
make paper spills to light a candle from a fire. Since I must have
been well under six years old at the time, this may have been part of
her dementia.

If I can't die right here in the same bedroom where Lois found my
mother-in-law, I'd rather be taken to Grace Village than be handed
round among the neices and nephews.



Well, as it is viewed here. When you were so weak that you couldn't
walk, you were incontinent and peed on the floor, you could only
mumble, unable to communicate in any normal manner, and were even
unable to feed yourself, were you handed off to some "Home"?
--
Cheers,

John B.

 




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