Steel frames and le Tour

In article ,
John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott
wrote:

The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50.

Is this a joke?

It's mistaken. Probability and odds are not the same. They are
different expressions.

Odds = o
Probably = p

o = p/(1-p)

P = o/(1+o)

If the odds are 4:1 that Cadel Evans will win the Tour de France, then
the probability is 80%.

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 23:25:57 +0200, Davey Crockett
wrote:

Jay Beattie a écrit profondement:



| Steel was used in Paris-Roubaix in 2006. See http://tinyurl.com/z4w5y
| Note the cyclocross-like bike further down the page with conventional
| 32 spoke wheels, tied and soldered. Jobst would give them an ear
| full! -- Jay Beattie.

Tied and soldered. That's a Blast from the Past.

Dear Davey,

Paris-Roubaix 2008 tying-and-soldering:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008...cott_Addict_RD

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008...erges_cassette

2007 carbon-spoke tying-and-

And--

Er, what the hell?

http://www.cyclingnews.com/photos/20...on07/_DSC3048U

Cheers,

Carl Fogel

a écrit profondement:

| On Jul 10, 10:36 pm, "
| wrote:
| On Jul 10, 12:59 pm, Scott wrote:
|
|
|
| On Jul 10, 1:29 pm, John Forrest Tomlinson
| wrote:
| On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott
|
| wrote:
| The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
| 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50.
|
| Is this a joke?
|
| No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
| steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
| sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
| whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
| frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.
|
| So, when you mis-attribute the likelyhood of a given rider riding a
| steel frame as far less likely than that (like your 1 in 1000 odds)
| and then try to apply that to the 180 riders at the start of the Tour
| and come up with something absurd like 1 in 1,000,000 or less, you
| aren't really applying the proper probability. It makes your argument
| look stronger to someone who doesn't understand odds, but it's not
| valid.
|
| Consider the question of whether RBR Chief Statistician
| Robert Chung just threw up in his mouth a little. There
| are only two possible outcomes, but the odds I would
| place on the two outcomes are not 50/50.
|
| Ben
| Odds aren't even. That's why they call them odds.
|
| That's odd.
|
| -ilan

Flip a coin - there are two outcomes - a head or a tail

Therefore the chances are even.

And even if one gets three heads and one tail in say four tosses,
continually tossing the coin until the number ot trials/tests
approaches infinity, the outcomes will close towards 50/50


--
Davey Crocketts brought the WTC down
9/11 was an Inside Job
http://homepage.mac.com/juanwilson/i...Pohakuloa.html

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 15:05:15 -0600, wrote:

His notion that aluminum would be less
surprising is puzzling, since the huge tubes would tend to make the
aluminum frame noticeable at a distance.

Huger than carbon fiber? You seem out of touch regarding racing
bikes.

In article
,
Scott wrote:

On Jul 10, 1:34*pm, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:33:37 -0700 (PDT), Scott

wrote:
The whole
point of the discussion hinges on the fact that we're talking about
someone using a non-standard team frame DISGUISED to look as much like
the team issue bike as possible. *Unless you're talking about a top
pro, where would you ever see info on what bike they're riding?

I've seen disguised bikes at races I've been at in person. These were
pro bikes made by another maker of another material. *

It's hard, but in some cases it's possible to spot disguised bikes in
photos. Especially if we're talking about frame materials with
significantly different tube sizes. *For high-tech steel the main
tubes are way thinner than carbon and aluminum - easy to see in
quality photos. The Tour of France is one of the most followed and
photographed races in the world.

There is zero evidence of a steel frame in that race other than
someone saying "Well, it's possible."

Don't make me play the 'dumbass' card on you!

No one ever said there was any evidence of a steel frame being ridden
in the Tour. You have insisted on trying to argue against a point
that no one has tried to make.

Please Scott, this discussion is in rbr as well as rbt, so let me
clarify something for you:

You're a big dumbass riding an astoundingly dumb argument into the
barriers, head down like Abdoujaparov.

It is beyond reasonable doubt that the TdF will not be ridden on steel
bikes this year: none of the teams are using steel bikes, the neutral
Mavic-supplied Cannondale bikes are not steel, and there is no plausible
reason why a rider would choose a steel bike for a personal ride even if
they could, and there's no evidence of anyone actually using a steel
bike in any case.

Kindest regards,

--
Ryan Cousineau http://www.wiredcola.com/
"In other newsgroups, they killfile trolls."
"In rec.bicycles.racing, we coach them."

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 14:28:02 -0700 (PDT), Scott
wrote:

Let's use poker as an example, since many of us have either played the
game or have seen it played on TV.

I haven't played much, but sure would love to play it with you.

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 14:42:03 -0700 (PDT), wrote:


I remember trying to convince people 12 years ago on my team who were
sponsored by Lemond and Trek to get the steel (if I remember
correctly) Zurich as it was much better for the riders who were suited
for criteriums and not road racing. In those days the Trek OCLV's
seemed pretty slow handling.

I had a Zurich and loved it. I still love it, but don't race it. About
four years ago I got a year-old OCLV as my racing bike and it seems
exactly the same to me, but's a bit lighter. I just started riding
another OCLV and as far as I can tell it feels the same as the other
two bikes.

On Fri, 11 Jul 2008 00:02:14 GMT, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 15:05:15 -0600, wrote:

His notion that aluminum would be less
surprising is puzzling, since the huge tubes would tend to make the
aluminum frame noticeable at a distance.

Huger than carbon fiber? You seem out of touch regarding racing
bikes.

Dear John,

You're right and I was wrong.

(See how easy that was?)

Cycling News thinks that there are a still few aluminum bikes in the
2008 TDF:

"Frame : Carbon fibre frames are the choice for most, although a few
riders in the peloton still prefer the added stiffness that a
top-quality aluminum frame provides."

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008...tour08_lexicon

Google doesn't show any previous match for that snippet, so it doesn't
seem to be some leftover definition recycled from earlier years.

Cheers,

Carl Fogel

On Jul 10, 3:06*pm, Davey Crockett wrote:
a écrit profondement:

| On Jul 10, 10:36 pm, " | wrote:

| Consider the question of whether RBR Chief Statistician
| Robert Chung just threw up in his mouth a little. *There
| are only two possible outcomes, but the odds I would
| place on the two outcomes are not 50/50.
|
| Ben
| Odds aren't even. *That's why they call them odds.
|
| That's odd.
|
| -ilan

Flip a coin - there are two outcomes - a head or a tail

Therefore the chances are even.

And even if one gets three heads and one tail in say four tosses,
continually tossing the coin until the number *ot trials/tests
approaches infinity, the outcomes will close towards 50/50


Only if it's a fair coin, which makes the definition
circular.

Try flipping a "coin" made from a hemisphere, or
a slug made by gluing two discs of heavy and light
metal together, or even a nickel and a quarter
stuck together, and you'll quickly find that though
there are two outcomes, the chances are not even.

Probability, like lotteries, is a tax on dumbasses.

Ben

In article ,
Tosspot wrote:

Donald Munro wrote:
wrote:
Dear RJ,

John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
Dear Carl.

All these dears. This place is beginning to sound like a gay tea party.

Carbon or china teacups?

With all the Fattie Masters in here, it would have to be carbon, with ceramic
saucers.

--
tanx,
Howard

The bloody pubs are bloody dull
The bloody clubs are bloody full
Of bloody girls and bloody guys
With bloody murder in their eyes

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?