Fun with exponents

On 5/27/2020 8:39 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 20:15:03 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 7:44 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 13:35:50 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 12:13 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 9:42:34 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote:
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few
of them
want to be competent. Top of the list in that category
is Dr. Fauci
of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at
things he knows
very little about.

Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National
Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work
for the CDC.
NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of
Health). He's has
been involved with controlling several previous
epidemics, which I
presume qualifies as experience:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is
better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

There is a place for those who sit around, think and
read papers.
I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in
the real world
as many other epidemiologists are and they often
interview them on
FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't
much you can
do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate.

I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself
from a viral
epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't
think that's what
you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also
seem to have
changed your position on Dr Fauci from:

"Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an
expert at things he knows very little about."

to:

"I do not deny Fauci that much."

That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on
infectious
diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him
something you
didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to
have an
opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled
to discount
your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your
opinion about
Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of
someone in the
US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to
handle a
pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some
names in China
that are substantially more qualified and equally
experienced, but
such experts would not be considered as candidates for
advising our
president, who knows more than any or all of them,
Here's one
candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned
for having is
bureau eliminated by the Trump administration:
"A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump
administration amid the
coronavirus crisis"
https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5



No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm).

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish
thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting
around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you
an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the
opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that
they know anything for the simple reason that they are
interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than
some stupid biased punk.

Your homework, Tom:

!) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that
because you obviously know very, very little about him.

2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux
News managed to dig up.

Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with
his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci.

We'll even give bonus points for a little more work:

3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your
opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology,
ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine,
sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know -
all the other things about which you, as a high school
dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained,
experienced, and recognized experts.


Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and
political survivor who knows something but surely not
everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has
different opinions but gets no media traction:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/

Knows something? Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong, which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience, and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences based on risk tolerance.

The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the US to be a good control. Personally, I don't care if a lot of people die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people who I don't know.

-- Jay Beattie.



I have no animus toward Dr Fauci. There just aren't enough
Italians in the world.

But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt
and call it well intentioned, but his various positions (no
mask, maybe mask, mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no
confidence. His famous statements "Americans need not worry"
, "No worse than the flu" and so on are endlessly repeated
and need no further comment from me.

And we do indeed have real world real time policy
comparisons. Mr DeSantis rigorously and immediately
protected old age homes, rehab centers, assisted living
facilities and retirement communities ending with a small
fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace
and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings
and hope of working citizens and small business owners.

In January, Tom Cotton was saying:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk

As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't.

Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but
humans are a widely variable lot and none are perfect.

(Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either)

So what is the solution? Just say "**** it" and go on about your
business as normal?

As I believe I have previously written, Thailand has been able to
trace nearly every virus case to it's source and in the majority of
the early cases were traced to places and events where a large number
or people congregated.Once lock down was in force, and enforced, the
numbers of new cases dropped dramatically and were almost wholly
limited to single new infections between family members.


Again, it is not heartless or dismissive of the dead to
explain to adult citizen any facts, where known, and advise
them. Japan did that very successfully without forcibly
closing businesses and thereby ruining careers, savings,
investments and various supply chains. The US of A has among
us children and idiots. Treating all of us as children or
idiots is not a good start to any policy.

As bad as our situation is, exacerbated by draconian
(perhaps unconstitutional[1] ) abuses of liberty, the
butcher's bill is yet to come. Suffering so far is minor
compared to the next several years. Most people have
absolutely no inkling of the vast damages and lost wealth we
will struggle mightily to replace. And it's not us alone.
American Christians in South America and Africa are warning
already of diminished food/medical/infrastructure transfers.
The problems of a $trillion-plus lost US productivity is
larger and broader than you might at first imagine.

[1] There are several examples of quarantine laws or
vaccination rules upheld (Jacobson v MA). This is not that.
There aren't AFAIK prior examples of restricted liberty in
order to deflect the nation's attention from an actual problem.


As I have said before, it is easy to wave your hands in the air and
shout, "Oh! that's wrong. But what is the solution?

Keep the stores and factories open? And what happens?

Well, actually nobody knows but, and again I'm using something that
happened here and was documented, a single boxing match attended by a
large number of people resulted in spreading the virus to more than
hundred individuals. A single infected employee, who does not yet
display symptoms could, possibly, infect every customer that enters
your place of business as well as you and all your employees.

Is that a better solution?


Yes. It takes great discipline and fortitude to do nothing
where overaction makes the problem worse. Politicians
usually cannot resist compounding every error into a
debacle. It's what they do. DeSantis is such an outlier I
think history will be very kind to him. Ditto Mr Lofven.

Compare Florida with New York.
Or Sweden to other European countries.

As a counterpoint, Germany, whose experience was different
again.

There just is not a firm case for correlation.

Oh by the way, compare 1969 Hong Kong Flu in USA with
100,000 dead to the 2020 Wuhan Virus. The population was
some 35% smaller then as well. Very little was made of it.
Not in newspapers, not political speeches, not tavern
conversation. Certainly no shutdowns, business closures,
forced unemployment, travel bans and such. I, for one, was
very busy swapping spit with girls and, then as now, wore no
mask. YMMV.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 5/27/2020 4:36 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 2:36 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 1:43 PM, wrote:

Only someone in a financially secure position could ignore
the pain and suffering of people whose source of income
has been cut off...

Only a person who has no friend or family infected or
seriously at risk could ignore the pain and suffering of
those with COVID.

... for no reasons whatsoever.

That's the view of a person with zero qualifications,
despite strong disagreement from qualified experts in every
country worldwide.


It is not heartless to observe that there is no correlation between
punishment and mortality rates.

There are definitely fatal policy errors (and Mr Cuomo made more than a
few of them. He's not alone.) but destroying lives, income, businesses,
wealth, opportunity and hope has not meant less death, just more
suffering among the living.

Again, "punishment" is a deliberately loaded word. Things like social
distancing orders and travel restrictions were intended to protect, not
punish.

And again, those measures have worked extremely well in many places.
Look how excellently Hawaii has done! Less than 20 deaths last I looked.
Isn't it obvious that can only be due to the 'stay-at-home' orders?

;-)


--
- Frank Krygowski

On 5/27/2020 2:35 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 12:13 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 9:42:34 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote:
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few
of them
want to be competent. Top of the list in that category
is Dr. Fauci
of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at
things he knows
very little about.

Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National
Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases) since 1984.Â* He does NOT work
for the CDC.
NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of
Health).Â* He's has
been involved with controlling several previous
epidemics, which I
presume qualifies as experience:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is
better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

There is a place for those who sit around, think and
read papers.
I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in
the real world
as many other epidemiologists are and they often
interview them on
FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't
much you can
do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate.

I see.Â* You want to be advised on how to protect yourself
from a viral
epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News.Â* I don't
think that's what
you intended to say, but that's what you wrote.Â* You also
seem to have
changed your position on Dr Fauci from:

Â*Â*Â*Â* "Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an
Â*Â*Â*Â* expert at things he knows very little about."

to:

Â*Â*Â*Â* "I do not deny Fauci that much."

That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on
infectious
diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him
something you
didn't bother to specify.Â* Of course, you're entitled to
have an
opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled
to discount
your opinion as rubbish.Â* Anyway, kindly stabilize your
opinion about
Dr Fauci.Â* If it's critical, please provide the name of
someone in the
US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to
handle a
pandemic.Â* Incidentally, I could probably provide some
names in China
that are substantially more qualified and equally
experienced, but
such experts would not be considered as candidates for
advising our
president, who knows more than any or all of them,
Here's one
candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned
for having is
bureau eliminated by the Trump administration:
"A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump
administration amid the
coronavirus crisis"
https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5




No bicycle related content this time.Â* Sorry(tm).

--
Jeff LiebermannÂ*Â*Â*Â*
150 Felker St #DÂ*Â*Â* http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermannÂ*Â*Â*Â* AE6KSÂ*Â*Â* 831-336-2558

The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish
thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting
around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you
an expert. The epidemiologists in the fieldÂ* say the
opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that
they know anything for the simple reason that they are
interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than
some stupid biased punk.

Your homework, Tom:

!) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that
because you obviously know very, very little about him.

2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux
News managed to dig up.

Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with
his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci.

We'll even give bonus points for a little more work:

3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your
opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology,
ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine,
sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know -
all the other things about which you, as a high school
dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained,
experienced, and recognized experts.


Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and
political survivor who knows something but surely not
everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has
different opinions but gets no media traction:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/


Knows something?Â* Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something
about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I
think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong,
which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement
often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience,
and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences
based on risk tolerance.

The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or
clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that
works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you
would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It
would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the
US to be a good control.Â* Personally, I don't care if a lot of people
die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are
not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people
who I don't know.

-- Jay Beattie.



I have no animus toward Dr Fauci.Â* There just aren't enough Italians in
the world.

But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt and call it
well intentioned, but his various positions (no mask, maybe mask,
mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no confidence. His famous statements
"Americans need not worry" , "No worse than the flu" and so on are
endlessly repeated and need no further comment from me.

And we do indeed have real world real time policy comparisons. Mr
DeSantis rigorously and immediately protected old age homes, rehab
centers, assisted living facilities and retirement communities ending
with a small fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace
and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings and hope of
working citizens and small business owners.

In January, Tom Cotton was saying:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk

As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't.

Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but humans are a
widely variable lot and none are perfect.

(Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either)

To me, this argument sounds similar to financial huxterism that pops up
occasionally on the web: "This man said to buy Apple in 1990! See what
he recommends TODAY!" It's canonization by hindsight, and a good guess
early on is no guarantee of special knowledge.

Perhaps Cotton was perceptive, or made a good guess. But some of the
stuff he's said since has been off the rails. Still, I'm sure we can't
locate one individual who has gotten every fact about this disaster
correct. Not even Tom!

But people of Fauci's caliber have been using science, evaluating data
and adjusting strategy and recommendations as more data became
available. Of course information is changing. That's how science is
supposed to work! And even Cotton has said “Using your own two eyes to
see what’s happening in our hospitals [is] the real acid-test for how
serious this virus is.�

People that say things like "It's all a hoax" or "I have a good feeling
about hydroxychloroquine..." are motivated by something other than science.


--
- Frank Krygowski

On 5/27/2020 9:24 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 19:53:38 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 7:21 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 11:42:30 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote:
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few
of them
want to be competent. Top of the list in that category
is Dr. Fauci
of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at
things he knows
very little about.

Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National
Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work
for the CDC.
NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of
Health). He's has
been involved with controlling several previous
epidemics, which I
presume qualifies as experience:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is
better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

There is a place for those who sit around, think and
read papers.
I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in
the real world
as many other epidemiologists are and they often
interview them on
FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't
much you can
do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate.

I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself
from a viral
epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't
think that's what
you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also
seem to have
changed your position on Dr Fauci from:

"Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an
expert at things he knows very little about."

to:

"I do not deny Fauci that much."

That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on
infectious
diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him
something you
didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to
have an
opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled
to discount
your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your
opinion about
Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of
someone in the
US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to
handle a
pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some
names in China
that are substantially more qualified and equally
experienced, but
such experts would not be considered as candidates for
advising our
president, who knows more than any or all of them,
Here's one
candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned
for having is
bureau eliminated by the Trump administration:
"A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump
administration amid the
coronavirus crisis"
https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5



No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm).

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish
thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting
around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you
an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the
opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that
they know anything for the simple reason that they are
interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than
some stupid biased punk.

Your homework, Tom:

!) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that
because you obviously know very, very little about him.

2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux
News managed to dig up.

Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with
his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci.

We'll even give bonus points for a little more work:

3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your
opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology,
ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine,
sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know -
all the other things about which you, as a high school
dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained,
experienced, and recognized experts.


Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and
political survivor who knows something but surely not
everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has
different opinions but gets no media traction:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/

And yet, countries that did institute a lock down, in a timely manner,
have noticeably lower cases and deaths.
(please note the phrase "timely manner")


Italy did and lost many. Japan did not and lost few.
Sweden is not out of line to her neighbors and yet still has
some GDP remaining.

RE Japan, no they didn't invoke a formal lock down but they did
encourage stores to close and mad some sort of payment to those that
did. They did trace the origin of the disease in individuals. They did
reduce person-to-person contact, the government has instructed the
public to refrain from going to high-risk environments (the Three Cs:
closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings) and events
involving movement between different areas of the country. It
emphasized extreme caution when coming in contact with the elderly.
The government also promoted such work-style reforms as teleworking
and staggering commuting hours, while improving the country's distance
learning infrastructure for children

The difference is perhaps that the Japanese people are more compliant
and tend to do what the government suggests while the normal U.S.
reaction, at least as evidenced here, is a sort of "f++k it", I want
to do what I want to do attitude.

+1


--
- Frank Krygowski

On Wed, 27 May 2020 21:27:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 8:39 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 20:15:03 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 7:44 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 13:35:50 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 12:13 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 9:42:34 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote:
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few
of them
want to be competent. Top of the list in that category
is Dr. Fauci
of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at
things he knows
very little about.

Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National
Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work
for the CDC.
NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of
Health). He's has
been involved with controlling several previous
epidemics, which I
presume qualifies as experience:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is
better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

There is a place for those who sit around, think and
read papers.
I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in
the real world
as many other epidemiologists are and they often
interview them on
FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't
much you can
do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate.

I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself
from a viral
epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't
think that's what
you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also
seem to have
changed your position on Dr Fauci from:

"Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an
expert at things he knows very little about."

to:

"I do not deny Fauci that much."

That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on
infectious
diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him
something you
didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to
have an
opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled
to discount
your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your
opinion about
Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of
someone in the
US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to
handle a
pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some
names in China
that are substantially more qualified and equally
experienced, but
such experts would not be considered as candidates for
advising our
president, who knows more than any or all of them,
Here's one
candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned
for having is
bureau eliminated by the Trump administration:
"A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump
administration amid the
coronavirus crisis"
https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5



No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm).

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish
thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting
around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you
an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the
opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that
they know anything for the simple reason that they are
interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than
some stupid biased punk.

Your homework, Tom:

!) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that
because you obviously know very, very little about him.

2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux
News managed to dig up.

Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with
his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci.

We'll even give bonus points for a little more work:

3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your
opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology,
ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine,
sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know -
all the other things about which you, as a high school
dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained,
experienced, and recognized experts.


Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and
political survivor who knows something but surely not
everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has
different opinions but gets no media traction:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/

Knows something? Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong, which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience, and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences based on risk tolerance.

The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the US to be a good control. Personally, I don't care if a lot of people die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people who I don't know.

-- Jay Beattie.



I have no animus toward Dr Fauci. There just aren't enough
Italians in the world.

But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt
and call it well intentioned, but his various positions (no
mask, maybe mask, mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no
confidence. His famous statements "Americans need not worry"
, "No worse than the flu" and so on are endlessly repeated
and need no further comment from me.

And we do indeed have real world real time policy
comparisons. Mr DeSantis rigorously and immediately
protected old age homes, rehab centers, assisted living
facilities and retirement communities ending with a small
fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace
and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings
and hope of working citizens and small business owners.

In January, Tom Cotton was saying:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk

As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't.

Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but
humans are a widely variable lot and none are perfect.

(Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either)

So what is the solution? Just say "**** it" and go on about your
business as normal?

As I believe I have previously written, Thailand has been able to
trace nearly every virus case to it's source and in the majority of
the early cases were traced to places and events where a large number
or people congregated.Once lock down was in force, and enforced, the
numbers of new cases dropped dramatically and were almost wholly
limited to single new infections between family members.


Again, it is not heartless or dismissive of the dead to
explain to adult citizen any facts, where known, and advise
them. Japan did that very successfully without forcibly
closing businesses and thereby ruining careers, savings,
investments and various supply chains. The US of A has among
us children and idiots. Treating all of us as children or
idiots is not a good start to any policy.

As bad as our situation is, exacerbated by draconian
(perhaps unconstitutional[1] ) abuses of liberty, the
butcher's bill is yet to come. Suffering so far is minor
compared to the next several years. Most people have
absolutely no inkling of the vast damages and lost wealth we
will struggle mightily to replace. And it's not us alone.
American Christians in South America and Africa are warning
already of diminished food/medical/infrastructure transfers.
The problems of a $trillion-plus lost US productivity is
larger and broader than you might at first imagine.

[1] There are several examples of quarantine laws or
vaccination rules upheld (Jacobson v MA). This is not that.
There aren't AFAIK prior examples of restricted liberty in
order to deflect the nation's attention from an actual problem.


As I have said before, it is easy to wave your hands in the air and
shout, "Oh! that's wrong. But what is the solution?

Keep the stores and factories open? And what happens?

Well, actually nobody knows but, and again I'm using something that
happened here and was documented, a single boxing match attended by a
large number of people resulted in spreading the virus to more than
hundred individuals. A single infected employee, who does not yet
display symptoms could, possibly, infect every customer that enters
your place of business as well as you and all your employees.

Is that a better solution?


Yes. It takes great discipline and fortitude to do nothing
where overaction makes the problem worse. Politicians
usually cannot resist compounding every error into a
debacle. It's what they do. DeSantis is such an outlier I
think history will be very kind to him. Ditto Mr Lofven.

Compare Florida with New York.
Or Sweden to other European countries.

As a counterpoint, Germany, whose experience was different
again.

There just is not a firm case for correlation.

Oh by the way, compare 1969 Hong Kong Flu in USA with
100,000 dead to the 2020 Wuhan Virus. The population was
some 35% smaller then as well. Very little was made of it.
Not in newspapers, not political speeches, not tavern
conversation. Certainly no shutdowns, business closures,
forced unemployment, travel bans and such. I, for one, was
very busy swapping spit with girls and, then as now, wore no
mask. YMMV.

Well perhaps it might have been the timing. True the 1968-9 pandemic
killed 100,000... in about 6 months. The current virus has killed
100,000 in 118 days. Actually 102,107, or about 865.5/day
Or perhaps it is the ease of communication, after all Usenet really
got started in about 1980. The WWW was proposed in, what was it?
1989? And Twitter only really got going in about 2007.
--
cheers,

John B.

On 27/05/2020 23.52, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 16:54:48 +0700, John B.
wrote:

On Wed, 27 May 2020 10:13:01 +0100, Tosspot
wrote:

On 26/05/2020 23.16, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/26/2020 2:11 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:37:24 +0200, Rolf Mantel
wrote:

The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it
removes all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm a
bit: In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu,
in Florida or DC even weaker. But in the US overall, the COVID-19
excess is around 70,000 compared to 15,000 at the 17-18 Flu. You
better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New
Jeresy where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City
where the excess reached 300% over normal.

Look again. NYC was about 600% above normal. At the same time, NY
State was about 125% above normal.

New York seem to be the worst. Go thee unto the aforementioned
URL. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19
- Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York The excess
deaths are in dark blue. Drag the mouse over the peak and it will
show about 125% excess deaths.

However, that's for New York State with New York City excluded
from the data. The "Figure Notes" below the graph proclaims: "Data
for New York excludes New York City" So NYC is tabulated
separately. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without
COVID-19 - Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York City
Drag the mouse over the peak. The info box shows excess deaths at
596.7% to 649.5%.

I imagine Tom will say all those people who died were just volunteers
participating in the big hoax.

The ultimate sacrifice. They should all be given the Presidential Medal
of Freedom.

100,000 and counting. Going to need a lot of scrap metal for those medals.

At May 27, 2020, 03:41 GMT it was 100,572 deaths and 1,144,734 sick.

And at May 27, 2020, 22:42 GMT it was 1,743,898 cases and 102,005
deaths.

Come on you guys. With only a tiny bit more effort you can hit the big
2,000,000 mark. I know that you can do it if you just try.

Give them a chance, they are only just mobilising the maggot
transmission vectors, they're going to need at least another month.

On 28/05/2020 01.07, news18 wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 08:58:39 -0700, cyclintom wrote:

On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 7:34:32 AM UTC-7, sms wrote:
On 5/26/2020 10:46 AM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to
be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the
CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very
little about.

Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for
the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health).
He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics,
which I presume qualifies as experience:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

That would be Tom.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/
swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdown s_are_the_wrong_policy.html#!

Swedish model? . Now that is a laugh. It has the sixth worst fatality
rate per head of population in the world. It even beats the USA.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ths-worldwide-
per-million-inhabitants/

They even beat Sint Maartin (Pop. 12). I suspect there is actually
nobody alive in the bars and restaurants of Sweden at this time.

On Thu, 28 May 2020 09:28:39 +0100, Tosspot
wrote:

On 27/05/2020 23.52, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 16:54:48 +0700, John B.
wrote:

On Wed, 27 May 2020 10:13:01 +0100, Tosspot
wrote:

On 26/05/2020 23.16, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/26/2020 2:11 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:37:24 +0200, Rolf Mantel
wrote:

The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it
removes all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm a
bit: In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu,
in Florida or DC even weaker. But in the US overall, the COVID-19
excess is around 70,000 compared to 15,000 at the 17-18 Flu. You
better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New
Jeresy where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City
where the excess reached 300% over normal.

Look again. NYC was about 600% above normal. At the same time, NY
State was about 125% above normal.

New York seem to be the worst. Go thee unto the aforementioned
URL. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without COVID-19
- Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York The excess
deaths are in dark blue. Drag the mouse over the peak and it will
show about 125% excess deaths.

However, that's for New York State with New York City excluded
from the data. The "Figure Notes" below the graph proclaims: "Data
for New York excludes New York City" So NYC is tabulated
separately. Select a Dashboard - Excess deaths with and without
COVID-19 - Update Dashboard Select Jurisdiction - New York City
Drag the mouse over the peak. The info box shows excess deaths at
596.7% to 649.5%.

I imagine Tom will say all those people who died were just volunteers
participating in the big hoax.

The ultimate sacrifice. They should all be given the Presidential Medal
of Freedom.

100,000 and counting. Going to need a lot of scrap metal for those medals.

At May 27, 2020, 03:41 GMT it was 100,572 deaths and 1,144,734 sick.

And at May 27, 2020, 22:42 GMT it was 1,743,898 cases and 102,005
deaths.

Come on you guys. With only a tiny bit more effort you can hit the big
2,000,000 mark. I know that you can do it if you just try.

Give them a chance, they are only just mobilising the maggot
transmission vectors, they're going to need at least another month.

It doesn't look that way. The last 10 days saw an increase of 218,139
or 21.813/day. Simple calculations would seem to indicate that you'll
hit the 2,000,000 mark in about 12 days :-(
--
cheers,

John B.

On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 6:04:58 PM UTC+1, AMuzi wrote:

Further to my last reply, I am not an expert. I do not work
in relevant fields nor read much beyond general coverage and
Science News.

Science? What you want science for? "Science" says we're all already burnt to a frazzle in the global warming.

However, confidence in CDC (and most Governors) is lacking
out here among the population of punished innocents:

https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horow...e-is-the-media

Journalists are all "scientists" too. It is in the interest of the Donkey Party to ramp up the media's hysterical fear-mongering, so the media as the publicity department of the Donkey Party are pleased to call themselves, irresponsibly ramp up the fear. Compare the way the media has thugged on Ron de Santis of Florida, by an objective account a very successful governor in these dangerous times, with the way they have idolized Andrew Cuomo, whose cruel (and stupid, and criminal) decisions aggravated matters in New York State. (I'm not even talking about Mayor de Blasio, whose incompetence is murderous.)

I understand that government employees relaxing at home with
full pay and retirees have a much less urgent interest than
people running out of resources right now.

I'm used to sitting in an elegant if somewhat dusty room (I subscribe to the Sherlock Holmes theory of filing -- I know from the depth of the dust on a stack of papers how urgent they must be) starting at a bare (well, actually wallpapered in restful Regency browny-pink stripes with a polished picture rail) or out of the window at the magpies squabbling in the eucalyptus trees. I didn't even notice the first lockdown until it was two weeks in and my wife mentioned it to me when I offered to take her to lunch at a fave restaurant. The police and the Red Cross bring our medicines (and the pharmacy staff anyway picked up prescriptions and delivered medicines before the Wuhan Virus; just another service they offer), the shops we always patronized bring our groceries as they always did, and we hardly notice that there's a problem.

But I'm an economist as well as an artist, and a valid question arises: Considering that the majority of the victims of the Wuhan Virus were elderly and presumably out of the workforce, and that dumb political decisions like Governor Cuomo stuffing sick people back into rest homes, aggravated their chances of dying of the virus, was the lockdown warranted? That is, would the hospitals really have been overwhelmed? If the answer is yes, then no lockdown could easily have led to much larger economic damage -- ask yourself the economic value of an orderly society, which you clearly lose at some point in an out-of-control pandemic. So, the economic damage without a lockdown could have been larger. Emphasis on *could*. That must be weighed against this: without the economic damage of any lockdown (or one starting earlier or later, and for shorter or longer), how many more old people would have died, short of the total breakdown of society I
described earlier in this paragraph? That's the sort of awful and awesome decision democracies elect their chief executives to take.* The present operating conditions of decision-makers is the starkest reminder you can imagine of the historical reality that economics isn't a science (as the mathematical branches insist), but a specialized branch of philosophy.

Good luck with sorting out the reasonable reality from the politics that has since the beginning bedeviled even hard counts, never mind speculative points such as those I just raised.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

Andre Jute
Just as well Mr Trump is a man of action rather than being given to overly much cogitation -- personally, if I were President, I'd hightail it to Canada or England or Australia and offer to be Prime Minister, because their collective-Cabinet-responsibility shares the blame for any decisions in such a loss-loss situation.

On 5/27/2020 9:38 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 4:36 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 2:36 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 1:43 PM, wrote:

Only someone in a financially secure position could ignore
the pain and suffering of people whose source of income
has been cut off...

Only a person who has no friend or family infected or
seriously at risk could ignore the pain and suffering of
those with COVID.

... for no reasons whatsoever.

That's the view of a person with zero qualifications,
despite strong disagreement from qualified experts in every
country worldwide.


It is not heartless to observe that there is no
correlation between punishment and mortality rates.

There are definitely fatal policy errors (and Mr Cuomo
made more than a few of them. He's not alone.) but
destroying lives, income, businesses, wealth, opportunity
and hope has not meant less death, just more suffering
among the living.

Again, "punishment" is a deliberately loaded word. Things
like social distancing orders and travel restrictions were
intended to protect, not punish.

And again, those measures have worked extremely well in many
places. Look how excellently Hawaii has done! Less than 20
deaths last I looked. Isn't it obvious that can only be due
to the 'stay-at-home' orders?

;-)



That is not at all obvious. New York?? Chicago??

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971