#151
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Fun with exponents
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 7:38:19 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 4:36 PM, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 2:36 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 1:43 PM, wrote: Only someone in a financially secure position could ignore the pain and suffering of people whose source of income has been cut off... Only a person who has no friend or family infected or seriously at risk could ignore the pain and suffering of those with COVID. ... for no reasons whatsoever. That's the view of a person with zero qualifications, despite strong disagreement from qualified experts in every country worldwide. It is not heartless to observe that there is no correlation between punishment and mortality rates. There are definitely fatal policy errors (and Mr Cuomo made more than a few of them. He's not alone.) but destroying lives, income, businesses, wealth, opportunity and hope has not meant less death, just more suffering among the living. Again, "punishment" is a deliberately loaded word. Things like social distancing orders and travel restrictions were intended to protect, not punish. And again, those measures have worked extremely well in many places. Look how excellently Hawaii has done! Less than 20 deaths last I looked. Isn't it obvious that can only be due to the 'stay-at-home' orders? ;-) -- - Frank Krygowski Would you mind telling us where these things have "worked well" let alone extremely well? |
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#152
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Fun with exponents
On Thursday, May 28, 2020 at 3:30:53 AM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 6:04:58 PM UTC+1, AMuzi wrote: Further to my last reply, I am not an expert. I do not work in relevant fields nor read much beyond general coverage and Science News. Science? What you want science for? "Science" says we're all already burnt to a frazzle in the global warming. However, confidence in CDC (and most Governors) is lacking out here among the population of punished innocents: https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horow...e-is-the-media Journalists are all "scientists" too. It is in the interest of the Donkey Party to ramp up the media's hysterical fear-mongering, so the media as the publicity department of the Donkey Party are pleased to call themselves, irresponsibly ramp up the fear. Compare the way the media has thugged on Ron de Santis of Florida, by an objective account a very successful governor in these dangerous times, with the way they have idolized Andrew Cuomo, whose cruel (and stupid, and criminal) decisions aggravated matters in New York State. (I'm not even talking about Mayor de Blasio, whose incompetence is murderous.) I understand that government employees relaxing at home with full pay and retirees have a much less urgent interest than people running out of resources right now. I'm used to sitting in an elegant if somewhat dusty room (I subscribe to the Sherlock Holmes theory of filing -- I know from the depth of the dust on a stack of papers how urgent they must be) starting at a bare (well, actually wallpapered in restful Regency browny-pink stripes with a polished picture rail) or out of the window at the magpies squabbling in the eucalyptus trees. I didn't even notice the first lockdown until it was two weeks in and my wife mentioned it to me when I offered to take her to lunch at a fave restaurant. The police and the Red Cross bring our medicines (and the pharmacy staff anyway picked up prescriptions and delivered medicines before the Wuhan Virus; just another service they offer), the shops we always patronized bring our groceries as they always did, and we hardly notice that there's a problem. But I'm an economist as well as an artist, and a valid question arises: Considering that the majority of the victims of the Wuhan Virus were elderly and presumably out of the workforce, and that dumb political decisions like Governor Cuomo stuffing sick people back into rest homes, aggravated their chances of dying of the virus, was the lockdown warranted? That is, would the hospitals really have been overwhelmed? If the answer is yes, then no lockdown could easily have led to much larger economic damage -- ask yourself the economic value of an orderly society, which you clearly lose at some point in an out-of-control pandemic. So, the economic damage without a lockdown could have been larger. Emphasis on *could*. That must be weighed against this: without the economic damage of any lockdown (or one starting earlier or later, and for shorter or longer), how many more old people would have died, short of the total breakdown of society I described earlier in this paragraph? That's the sort of awful and awesome decision democracies elect their chief executives to take.* The present operating conditions of decision-makers is the starkest reminder you can imagine of the historical reality that economics isn't a science (as the mathematical branches insist), but a specialized branch of philosophy. Good luck with sorting out the reasonable reality from the politics that has since the beginning bedeviled even hard counts, never mind speculative points such as those I just raised. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 Andre Jute Just as well Mr Trump is a man of action rather than being given to overly much cogitation -- personally, if I were President, I'd hightail it to Canada or England or Australia and offer to be Prime Minister, because their collective-Cabinet-responsibility shares the blame for any decisions in such a loss-loss situation. Several years ago there was an especially heavy Arctic ice extent. Since these things are cyclic it shouldn't surprise anyone. But there appeared a strong southerly wind that is somewhat unusual. This blew the icepack a mile offshore and immediately the "environmentalists" flocked to the Alaskan northern shore and began taking pictures which they have ever since used to "prove" that global warming is real and exists. How they thought that they could get away with turning a near record ice extent into a total lack of ice in the Arctic ocean only they know. But the public in general didn't fall for it but the articles in Science News have gotten more and more shrill. I think that it was just this last winter they announced that Svalsberg, Norway, was ice free for the first winter on record. Perhaps they should have consulted with the Svalsberg authorities since they had almost record depths of ice there and for the first time in many years could not get off of the island by sea. I have come to the conclusion that science has died. My wife was a teacher and yesterday she started reading a Tarzan novel from the 1930's. She said that she seriously doubts that people under the age of 40 could even read it. The English is so proper, the grammar so correct that even she has to read every word and not skim them like she does most paperbacks these days. Watched Funny Girl the other night. This was so phony and belittled reality that one has to wonder why this film was ever made. Fanny Brice was a huckster and she was married before her boyfriend the con artist. Together they attempted to work many cons. Her third husband was Billy Rose the producer and gay guy. Wouldn't an account of Queen Elizabeth have been far more romantic? I don't know about you but I have had it with Hollywood gays promoting immorality because they recognize that if they can make it common they wouldn't be criticized as much. Consider this - 40% of the economy of the "shelter in place" states has disappeared and will take years to recover. This drives the suicide rates up. Paul Ehrlich, a moronic and virtually criminally insane, tenured professor at Stanford in the 1980's was promoting putting sterility agents into reservoirs and poison into food supplies sent to third world countries in order to control what he termed "The Population Bomb". Isn't this virtually the same thing? |
#154
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Fun with exponents
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#155
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Fun with exponents
On Friday, May 29, 2020 at 9:06:16 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/29/2020 10:09 AM, wrote: On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 6:28:55 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Wed, 27 May 2020 17:52:39 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 3:58 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:56:22 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote: Bicycle related drivel: Water bottle fail. I grabbed it, and the now brittle plastic crumbled. My guess(tm) is it was 30 years old. Argh. http://www.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/water%20bottle%20fail.html Blank page. So much for bibycle related content. I updated my photo album software from Jalbum 20.0 to the latest 20.1. I also added the above photo. The new and improved release did some odd things and took far too long to coplete the upload. The next morning, I discovered that all the photos on my web pile were gone. I have backups, but until I put the mess back together, no photos. Sorry. I saw it yesterday. I also saw it yesterday. It was coming out of some manner of web cache and not directly from the 1and1.com server. Hard to tell what's happening as Shodan shows a weird server name: 74-208-236-55.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com https://www.ip-tracker.org/locator/ip-lookup.php?ip=74-208-236-133.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com Anyway, when the cache flushed overnight, all my photos went with it. I'm resisting the temptation to completely change the structure of the web site, but suspect it will be necessary anyway. Typical outgassed polymer failure. Thanks. The bottom of the bottle says it's LDPE (low-density polyethylene) and was made in 1992 (28 years old). I've seen plastic crumble, but not quite the way this bottle decided to crumble. Google couldn't find anything useful under "outgassed polymer failure". Could you point me to a web page where I can read about it? I've never seen anything crumble this badly and I'm curious as to the failure mechanism. (If you're busy, don't bother). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 Jeff, surely you're not worried about a $2 item that was long past its useful life since these things are degraded by UV light and you ride a lot in the sunshine? Tom don't be such an ass. Intellectual curiosity is plenty enough reason. Would you have told Newton to sit under some other type of tree? -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 Why would you have the least curiosity about the failure of a polyethylene container after nearly 20 years of often exposure to UV? It isn't as if this sort of failure is unusual. Take a like bottle and leave in out on a table in direct sunlight for one summer and it will do the same thing. |
#156
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Fun with exponents
On 5/29/2020 11:10 AM, wrote:
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 7:38:19 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 4:36 PM, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 2:36 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 1:43 PM, wrote: Only someone in a financially secure position could ignore the pain and suffering of people whose source of income has been cut off... Only a person who has no friend or family infected or seriously at risk could ignore the pain and suffering of those with COVID. ... for no reasons whatsoever. That's the view of a person with zero qualifications, despite strong disagreement from qualified experts in every country worldwide. It is not heartless to observe that there is no correlation between punishment and mortality rates. There are definitely fatal policy errors (and Mr Cuomo made more than a few of them. He's not alone.) but destroying lives, income, businesses, wealth, opportunity and hope has not meant less death, just more suffering among the living. Again, "punishment" is a deliberately loaded word. Things like social distancing orders and travel restrictions were intended to protect, not punish. And again, those measures have worked extremely well in many places. Look how excellently Hawaii has done! Less than 20 deaths last I looked. Isn't it obvious that can only be due to the 'stay-at-home' orders? ;-) -- - Frank Krygowski Would you mind telling us where these things have "worked well" let alone extremely well? https://www.yahoo.com/news/zealand-n...170300258.html -- - Frank Krygowski |
#157
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Fun with exponents
On 5/29/2020 11:12 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/29/2020 10:59 AM, wrote: The real pity is that you are in total agreement that the government in the hands of the CDC's visual arm at the covid-19 briefings should pass out patently false information. I have shown you that there are no more deaths than last year at this time... You have shown no such thing. You have opined. Others have shown data proving you're wrong. You're no better at epidemiology than you are at bottom brackets or installing di2. Your COVID stories are no more believable than your tree branch stories, and have no more evidence to back them up. ...you are like a trained seal ... You say that as you honk talking points originating from Faux News or right wing conspiracy sites. Are they tossing you fish, Tom? . . . BTW, on the personal COVID front: Last night I got more news about my friend who was on a ventilator for a solid month. This is the guy in his early 50s, no pre-existing conditions, very tough cyclist, daily commuter, very fast. Remember, maybe two weeks ago they finally discharged him from the hospital, to some sort of convalescent care place. (He's out of state, having moved late last year.) There was some good news last night. He was able to walk 300 feet using his walker. Good news indeed, hope he does as well as this Polish lady: https://www.ktvu.com/news/103-year-o...virus-recovery -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
#158
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Fun with exponents
On Friday, May 29, 2020 at 9:12:53 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/29/2020 10:59 AM, wrote: The real pity is that you are in total agreement that the government in the hands of the CDC's visual arm at the covid-19 briefings should pass out patently false information. I have shown you that there are no more deaths than last year at this time... You have shown no such thing. You have opined. Others have shown data proving you're wrong. You're no better at epidemiology than you are at bottom brackets or installing di2. Your COVID stories are no more believable than your tree branch stories, and have no more evidence to back them up. ...you are like a trained seal ... You say that as you honk talking points originating from Faux News or right wing conspiracy sites. Are they tossing you fish, Tom? . . . BTW, on the personal COVID front: Last night I got more news about my friend who was on a ventilator for a solid month. This is the guy in his early 50s, no pre-existing conditions, very tough cyclist, daily commuter, very fast. Remember, maybe two weeks ago they finally discharged him from the hospital, to some sort of convalescent care place. (He's out of state, having moved late last year.) There was some good news last night. He was able to walk 300 feet using his walker. Why are you simply lying after I showed both the original document, the update and the CDC record of death certificates? That had nothing whatsoever to do with my opinion but there is something seriously wrong in your mind that allows you to be propagandized by the Lame Stream Media. After I showed those charts to a detective friend he said, "See I'm right and I think you should apologize" This is a man that has been hiding in his home for 3 months are getting food deliveries plastic wrapped dropped 15 feet from his doorway which he sanitizes before taking into his home. What would you say if your friend has exactly the same reaction to the seasonal flu? |
#159
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Fun with exponents
On Fri, 29 May 2020 08:09:39 -0700 (PDT), wrote:
Jeff, surely you're not worried about a $2 item that was long past its useful life since these things are degraded by UV light and you ride a lot in the sunshine? For bicycling, money is no object, even if it's too cheap. The water bottle has been attached to my Miyata 610, which has spent the last 15(?) years in my "workshop" in need of repair. Prior to 2005, I did ride it, but not very often: http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/#Miyata-610.JPG There may have been some direct sunlight leaking in through a sliding glass door. If UV deterioration was the problem, I would have expected the bottle to exhibit asymmetrical damage, mostly on the side facing the glass door. Instead, it's uniformly brittle. I don't think UV embitterment is the culprit here. -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
#160
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Fun with exponents
Frank Krygowski writes:
On 5/28/2020 8:32 PM, John B. wrote: On Thu, 28 May 2020 15:40:36 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/28/2020 3:00 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: AMuzi writes: On 5/27/2020 7:21 PM, John B. wrote: On Wed, 27 May 2020 11:42:30 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), wrote: On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote: On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), wrote: I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about. Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC. NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I presume qualifies as experience: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci? There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate. I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself from a viral epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't think that's what you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also seem to have changed your position on Dr Fauci from: "Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about." to: "I do not deny Fauci that much." That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on infectious diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him something you didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to have an opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled to discount your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your opinion about Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of someone in the US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to handle a pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China that are substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but such experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is bureau eliminated by the Trump administration: "A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump administration amid the coronavirus crisis" https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5 No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm). -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that they know anything for the simple reason that they are interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than some stupid biased punk. Your homework, Tom: !) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that because you obviously know very, very little about him. 2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux News managed to dig up. Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci. We'll even give bonus points for a little more work: 3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology, ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine, sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know - all the other things about which you, as a high school dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained, experienced, and recognized experts. Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and political survivor who knows something but surely not everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has different opinions but gets no media traction: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/ And yet, countries that did institute a lock down, in a timely manner, have noticeably lower cases and deaths. (please note the phrase "timely manner") Italy did and lost many. Japan did not and lost few. Sweden is not out of line to her neighbors and yet still has some GDP remaining. There's no correlation. You can imply one as you will but it's not clear at all that such relationship exists. You might like this article from the Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-...2-648ffde71bf0 They show excess mortality statistics for countries where they are available, and plot versus infections per million on "lockdown day". In the absence of a legal lockdown, they use the day when transit usage fell to 50% of pre-pandemic levels. It's not clear to me how comparable the "infections per million" figures are, given the wide variation of testing capabilities over space and time. They claim to find a correlation between early lockdown and lower excess deaths, but their points are very widely scattered. Spain comes off worst in excess mortality, followed by the UK, and then Italy. Food for thought: https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-...2-648ffde71bf0 Regarding testing, I read a report yesterday interviewing RNs who have tested both positive and negative on different days, back and forth, for weeks. I don't know but I'm reasonably certain that any conclusion based on large population testing is inaccurate. BTW I'm not disagreeing with you generally, just stopping short of accepting ratios dependent on current testing. I have read several news articles stating that some of the testing does not give accurate results. https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...u-have-illness https://abc7.com/covid-19-coronaviru...-core/6112137/ https://www.11alive.com/article/news...4-2297526c0cc0 Yes, as at least one of the articles stated, all lab tests give some false positives and some false negatives. And interpreting those results can be mathematically surprising, as the computation known as Bayes Theorem shows. The less common the disease, the weirder the math. Accuracy of the tests is the least of the problem; the big issue is sampling bias. As far as I can tell, in the US only people that go out of their way to be tested are -- this is not a random sample at all, and not representative of the population. There have been a few studies that tried to sample deliberately, eg on all residents of a Boston homeless shelter. That one showed a very high number of asymptomatic cases. This article has an example: https://math.hmc.edu/funfacts/medica...bayes-theorem/ |
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