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Steel frames and le Tour



 
 
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  #51  
Old July 10th 08, 08:59 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech,rec.bicycles.racing
Scott
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Posts: 1,859
Default Steel frames and le Tour

On Jul 10, 1:29*pm, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott

wrote:
The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. *It's 50/50.


Is this a joke?


No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.

So, when you mis-attribute the likelyhood of a given rider riding a
steel frame as far less likely than that (like your 1 in 1000 odds)
and then try to apply that to the 180 riders at the start of the Tour
and come up with something absurd like 1 in 1,000,000 or less, you
aren't really applying the proper probability. It makes your argument
look stronger to someone who doesn't understand odds, but it's not
valid.

None of this matters, however. Like I said before, and will say
again, ALL I said is that I wouldn't be surprised if someone were
riding on a steel frame. How or why I came to that conclusion is up
to me and you can't refute it. You may try to tell me that I
shouldn't come to that conclusion, of course, but I don't have to be
swayed by your arguments.

I'm not saying someone is riding a steel frame, I have no proof that
someone is riding a steel frame, I don't really care if someone is or
not, and I understand how unlikely it is... but also understand it is
certainly not impossible. You should understand that my reasonings
for stating that it wouldn't surprise me aren't really up for you to
decide the validity of.
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  #52  
Old July 10th 08, 09:03 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech,rec.bicycles.racing
Donald Munro
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Default Steel frames and le Tour

Scott wrote:
Well, of course. The whole
point of the discussion hinges on the fact that we're talking about
someone using a non-standard team frame DISGUISED to look as much like
the team issue bike as possible. Unless you're talking about a top pro,
where would you ever see info on what bike they're riding? You'd never
even hear about some guy on a team who just happened to have a steel
bike. That does not mean it is or isn't happening. It just means that
it would be hard to point to an example of it if it were happening.


Bob Schwartz wrote:
Those guys ride what they are paid to ride. *Especially* those guys.


The men in black wouldn't be seen dead riding steel.
  #53  
Old July 10th 08, 09:03 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech,rec.bicycles.racing
RicodJour
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Posts: 3,142
Default Steel frames and le Tour

On Jul 10, 2:21*pm, Scott wrote:

Now, back to your initial paragraph. *You don't understand
probability. *The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. *It's 50/50. *They either are, or are
not, using a steel frame. *The odds would be different if we defined
our terms differently, say, what are the odds a rider would choose
frame A (steel) vs frame B (Ti from builder x) vs frame C (Ti from
builder y) vs frame D (carbon fiber from xyz) vs frame E (carbon fiber
from abc) and so on.


You keep using that word, odds. I do not think it means what you think
it means.

What you meant to say, and probably would have said, if you weren't at
_odds_ with people that disagreed with you, is that there are two
possibilities - either a steel frame or another frame. Both the odds
and probability of a rider in the Tour day France riding a steel frame
are extremely remote - roughly akin to you admitting that, "okay, I'm
wrong." Deal with it.

R
  #54  
Old July 10th 08, 09:06 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech,rec.bicycles.racing
Donald Munro
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Posts: 4,811
Default Steel frames and le Tour

wrote:
Dear RJ,


John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
Dear Carl.


All these dears. This place is beginning to sound like a gay tea party.
  #55  
Old July 10th 08, 09:07 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech,rec.bicycles.racing
John Forrest Tomlinson
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Posts: 6,564
Default Steel frames and le Tour

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:58:59 -0700 (PDT), Scott
wrote:

On Jul 10, 1:34*pm, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:33:37 -0700 (PDT), Scott

wrote:
The whole
point of the discussion hinges on the fact that we're talking about
someone using a non-standard team frame DISGUISED to look as much like
the team issue bike as possible. *Unless you're talking about a top
pro, where would you ever see info on what bike they're riding?


I've seen disguised bikes at races I've been at in person. These were
pro bikes made by another maker of another material. *

It's hard, but in some cases it's possible to spot disguised bikes in
photos. Especially if we're talking about frame materials with
significantly different tube sizes. *For high-tech steel the main
tubes are way thinner than carbon and aluminum - easy to see in
quality photos. The Tour of France is one of the most followed and
photographed races in the world.

There is zero evidence of a steel frame in that race other than
someone saying "Well, it's possible."


Don't make me play the 'dumbass' card on you!

No one ever said there was any evidence of a steel frame being ridden
in the Tour. You have insisted on trying to argue against a point
that no one has tried to make.


I'll clarify -- zero evidence that it is even remotely possible other
than someone saying, in effect, "it's possilbe".

  #56  
Old July 10th 08, 09:08 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech,rec.bicycles.racing
Donald Munro
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Default Steel frames and le Tour

BrandyCycles wrote:
Fascinating how times have changed. In the days of steel riders had
"custom" frames made for them, sometimes by builders of their own
choosing. Now, we supposedly have all of these "stock" carbon frames
(e.g., Cervelo, Trek) with which riders are perfectly content.


I seem to recall Specialized make a custom carbon bike for Boonen.
  #57  
Old July 10th 08, 09:12 PM posted to rec.bicycles.racing
dave a
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Posts: 308
Default Steel frames and le Tour

Scott wrote:

No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.


Then the odds of anything and everything is 50-50. Odds of dying today,
50/50, either I will or I won't. Odds of me winning the TdF, 50-50 (I
know, entering might increase the odds in some minds, but not Scott's).

Unfortunately, we would also have to say the odds of you being right are
also 50-50, either you are or you aren't, according to Scottistics (tm).

/dave a
  #58  
Old July 10th 08, 09:18 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech,rec.bicycles.racing
Bret Wade[_3_]
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Posts: 25
Default Steel frames and le Tour

Scott wrote:
On Jul 10, 1:29 pm, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott

wrote:
The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50.

Is this a joke?


No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.


Then do you also think that there are 50/50 odds that they are riding a
lead bike?

Bret
  #59  
Old July 10th 08, 09:20 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech,rec.bicycles.racing
John Forrest Tomlinson
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Posts: 6,564
Default Steel frames and le Tour

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:59:03 -0700 (PDT), Scott
wrote:

On Jul 10, 1:29*pm, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott

wrote:
The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. *It's 50/50.


Is this a joke?


No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.


Well, despite it not being a joke, the odds of me laughing
are.....100%

LOL
  #60  
Old July 10th 08, 09:26 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech,rec.bicycles.racing
Tosspot[_2_]
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Posts: 769
Default Steel frames and le Tour

Donald Munro wrote:
wrote:
Dear RJ,


John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
Dear Carl.


All these dears. This place is beginning to sound like a gay tea party.


Carbon or china teacups?
 




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