Steel frames and le Tour

wrote:
Dear RJ,

John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
Dear Carl.

Donald Munro wrote:
All these dears. This place is beginning to sound like a gay tea party.

Tosspot wrote:
Carbon or china teacups?

There's a 50/50 chance they're steel.

-snip frames-
John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
You think team sponsors who are going nuts spending money to get their
name into the most televised and photographed bike race in the world
wouldnt' care if some "lower-level" rider is riding something
different?
Wow.

Long history of that, actually. Especially in climbs and TT.
--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971
** Posted from http://www.teranews.com **

On Jul 10, 12:59*pm, Scott wrote:
On Jul 10, 1:29*pm, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott

wrote:
The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. *It's 50/50.

Is this a joke?

No. *It's really quite binary. *Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
steel frame.

Holy ****! I'm buying lottery tickets now that I know my odds of
winning are binary! I'm either going to win, or not. 50/50!
-Paul

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 19:35:19 GMT, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:36:14 -0600, wrote:

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:06 -0700 (PDT), RicodJour
wrote:

On Jul 10, 1:57*pm, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 10:42:13 -0700 (PDT), "


Regardless of your incessant babbling, you know a lot less than you
think you do.

You're mistaken. *I know I know very little. *But the things I say I
know I'm almost always right about.

As far as you know.

R

Dear RJ,

Here's a current example of John proving how little he knows:

On Wed, 09 Jul 2008 11:25:54 -0600, wrote:

"Carl, did you ever add that seven pound weight to your bike? No? Then
shut up."
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.b...83b5702c4c3236

Yes, ignorance is not only bliss, but also tends to believe that it's
almost always right.

John might profit from this article:
http://www.geocities.com/sgraessle/folder1/incomp.htm

Cheers,

Carl Fogel

Dear Carl. Did I say you didn't or did I ask?

Please shut up now.

Dear John,

Were you ignorant or not?

Incidentally, have you caught up yet?

Or do you want to tell me to shut up again if I haven't put 7 more
pounds on my bike for your education?

Cheers,

Carl Fogel

On Jul 10, 12:59*pm, Scott wrote:
On Jul 10, 1:29*pm, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott

wrote:
The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. *It's 50/50.

Is this a joke?

No. *It's really quite binary. *Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
steel frame. *Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.

So, when you mis-attribute the likelyhood of a given rider riding a
steel frame as far less likely than that (like your 1 in 1000 odds)
and then try to apply that to the 180 riders at the start of the Tour
and come up with something absurd like 1 in 1,000,000 or less, you
aren't really applying the proper probability. *It makes your argument
look stronger to someone who doesn't understand odds, but it's not
valid.


Consider the question of whether RBR Chief Statistician
Robert Chung just threw up in his mouth a little. There
are only two possible outcomes, but the odds I would
place on the two outcomes are not 50/50.

Ben
Odds aren't even. That's why they call them odds.

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 15:33:34 -0500, A Muzi
wrote:

-snip frames-
John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
You think team sponsors who are going nuts spending money to get their
name into the most televised and photographed bike race in the world
wouldnt' care if some "lower-level" rider is riding something
different?
Wow.

Long history of that, actually. Especially in climbs and TT.

Among lower-level riders? Riding technology that is not cutting-edge
but rather older than what the team wants them to ride?

I dont' think so.

This steel thing is not like some top pro painting a carbon Vitus to
look like a steel Raleigh in the late 1980s (which I've seen
first-hand) or Lance Armstrong riding a re-baded Litespeed TT bike
instead of a Trek (photos).

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 14:36:18 -0600, wrote:


Were you ignorant or not?

Sure, I was ignorant. I was ignoring your later posting because they
were tiresome and unclear.


Incidentally, have you caught up yet?

Will I ever?

Or do you want to tell me to shut up again if I haven't put 7 more
pounds on my bike for your education?

If you haven't, you should certainly shut up. I think you should shut
up in regardless.

wrote:
Dear RJ,

John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
Dear Carl.

Donald Munro wrote:
All these dears. This place is beginning to sound like a gay tea party.

Tea? I didn't see any 'tea' reference
--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971
** Posted from http://www.teranews.com **

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 20:39:28 GMT, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 14:36:18 -0600, wrote:


Were you ignorant or not?

Sure, I was ignorant. I was ignoring your later posting because they
were tiresome and unclear.


Incidentally, have you caught up yet?

Will I ever?

Or do you want to tell me to shut up again if I haven't put 7 more
pounds on my bike for your education?

If you haven't, you should certainly shut up. I think you should shut
up in regardless.

Dear John,

If you wanted me to shut up, why did you repeatedly write posts asking
me to add 7 pounds to my bike and then fall silent when I did so and
posted the results?

Cheers,

Carl Fogel

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 14:43:50 -0600, wrote:

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 20:39:28 GMT, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 14:36:18 -0600, wrote:


Were you ignorant or not?

Sure, I was ignorant. I was ignoring your later posting because they
were tiresome and unclear.


Incidentally, have you caught up yet?

Will I ever?

Or do you want to tell me to shut up again if I haven't put 7 more
pounds on my bike for your education?

If you haven't, you should certainly shut up. I think you should shut
up in regardless.

Dear John,

If you wanted me to shut up, why did you repeatedly write posts asking
me to add 7 pounds to my bike and then fall silent when I did so and
posted the results?

Dear Carl er cheers Dear

In this thread I didn't ask you to. I asked if you did.

Dear er cheers is that er clear Cheers?