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#51
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Steel frames and le Tour
On Jul 10, 1:29*pm, John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote: On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott wrote: The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. *It's 50/50. Is this a joke? No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT. So, when you mis-attribute the likelyhood of a given rider riding a steel frame as far less likely than that (like your 1 in 1000 odds) and then try to apply that to the 180 riders at the start of the Tour and come up with something absurd like 1 in 1,000,000 or less, you aren't really applying the proper probability. It makes your argument look stronger to someone who doesn't understand odds, but it's not valid. None of this matters, however. Like I said before, and will say again, ALL I said is that I wouldn't be surprised if someone were riding on a steel frame. How or why I came to that conclusion is up to me and you can't refute it. You may try to tell me that I shouldn't come to that conclusion, of course, but I don't have to be swayed by your arguments. I'm not saying someone is riding a steel frame, I have no proof that someone is riding a steel frame, I don't really care if someone is or not, and I understand how unlikely it is... but also understand it is certainly not impossible. You should understand that my reasonings for stating that it wouldn't surprise me aren't really up for you to decide the validity of. |
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#52
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Steel frames and le Tour
Scott wrote:
Well, of course. The whole point of the discussion hinges on the fact that we're talking about someone using a non-standard team frame DISGUISED to look as much like the team issue bike as possible. Unless you're talking about a top pro, where would you ever see info on what bike they're riding? You'd never even hear about some guy on a team who just happened to have a steel bike. That does not mean it is or isn't happening. It just means that it would be hard to point to an example of it if it were happening. Bob Schwartz wrote: Those guys ride what they are paid to ride. *Especially* those guys. The men in black wouldn't be seen dead riding steel. |
#53
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Steel frames and le Tour
On Jul 10, 2:21*pm, Scott wrote:
Now, back to your initial paragraph. *You don't understand probability. *The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. *It's 50/50. *They either are, or are not, using a steel frame. *The odds would be different if we defined our terms differently, say, what are the odds a rider would choose frame A (steel) vs frame B (Ti from builder x) vs frame C (Ti from builder y) vs frame D (carbon fiber from xyz) vs frame E (carbon fiber from abc) and so on. You keep using that word, odds. I do not think it means what you think it means. What you meant to say, and probably would have said, if you weren't at _odds_ with people that disagreed with you, is that there are two possibilities - either a steel frame or another frame. Both the odds and probability of a rider in the Tour day France riding a steel frame are extremely remote - roughly akin to you admitting that, "okay, I'm wrong." Deal with it. R |
#54
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Steel frames and le Tour
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#55
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Steel frames and le Tour
On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:58:59 -0700 (PDT), Scott
wrote: On Jul 10, 1:34*pm, John Forrest Tomlinson wrote: On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:33:37 -0700 (PDT), Scott wrote: The whole point of the discussion hinges on the fact that we're talking about someone using a non-standard team frame DISGUISED to look as much like the team issue bike as possible. *Unless you're talking about a top pro, where would you ever see info on what bike they're riding? I've seen disguised bikes at races I've been at in person. These were pro bikes made by another maker of another material. * It's hard, but in some cases it's possible to spot disguised bikes in photos. Especially if we're talking about frame materials with significantly different tube sizes. *For high-tech steel the main tubes are way thinner than carbon and aluminum - easy to see in quality photos. The Tour of France is one of the most followed and photographed races in the world. There is zero evidence of a steel frame in that race other than someone saying "Well, it's possible." Don't make me play the 'dumbass' card on you! No one ever said there was any evidence of a steel frame being ridden in the Tour. You have insisted on trying to argue against a point that no one has tried to make. I'll clarify -- zero evidence that it is even remotely possible other than someone saying, in effect, "it's possilbe". |
#56
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Steel frames and le Tour
BrandyCycles wrote:
Fascinating how times have changed. In the days of steel riders had "custom" frames made for them, sometimes by builders of their own choosing. Now, we supposedly have all of these "stock" carbon frames (e.g., Cervelo, Trek) with which riders are perfectly content. I seem to recall Specialized make a custom carbon bike for Boonen. |
#57
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Steel frames and le Tour
Scott wrote:
No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT. Then the odds of anything and everything is 50-50. Odds of dying today, 50/50, either I will or I won't. Odds of me winning the TdF, 50-50 (I know, entering might increase the odds in some minds, but not Scott's). Unfortunately, we would also have to say the odds of you being right are also 50-50, either you are or you aren't, according to Scottistics (tm). /dave a |
#58
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Steel frames and le Tour
Scott wrote:
On Jul 10, 1:29 pm, John Forrest Tomlinson wrote: On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott wrote: The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50. Is this a joke? No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT. Then do you also think that there are 50/50 odds that they are riding a lead bike? Bret |
#59
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Steel frames and le Tour
On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:59:03 -0700 (PDT), Scott
wrote: On Jul 10, 1:29*pm, John Forrest Tomlinson wrote: On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott wrote: The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. *It's 50/50. Is this a joke? No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT. Well, despite it not being a joke, the odds of me laughing are.....100% LOL |
#60
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Steel frames and le Tour
Donald Munro wrote:
wrote: Dear RJ, John Forrest Tomlinson wrote: Dear Carl. All these dears. This place is beginning to sound like a gay tea party. Carbon or china teacups? |
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