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Newcomer question
Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing.
I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point based on historical efforts? Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone with a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the overall winner? |
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#2
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Newcomer question
"Paul Cassel" wrote in message
. .. Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing. I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point based on historical efforts? Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone with a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the overall winner? Against Valverde a couple of minutes is the most that God could make up unless there's something major bad happening to him. |
#3
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Newcomer question
Tom Kunich wrote:
"Paul Cassel" wrote in message . .. Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing. I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point based on historical efforts? Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone with a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the overall winner? Against Valverde a couple of minutes is the most that God could make up unless there's something major bad happening to him. Valverde has to prove that he can *finish* the Tour to win, which he has yet to do. I hope he does, because it would be a shame to have yet another year of pundits talking about his 'unfulfilled potential'. ~bob s. |
#4
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Newcomer question
On Jul 19, 5:44 pm, Paul Cassel
wrote: Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing. I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point based on historical efforts? Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone with a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the overall winner? The actual time deficit is significant but is not the only factor. There was a fellow named Pereiro who last year recovered just about .5 hour in a single stage (13) and ended up second (maybe even first) overall, mostly because nobody was paying attention to him. See http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006...sults/tour0613 So yes, it's possible, but not common. DR |
#5
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Newcomer question
in message , Paul Cassel
') wrote: Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing. I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point based on historical efforts? Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone with a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the overall winner? Very occasionally, very strong riders have got away in long breaks. It is possible for a rider to make up a half hour deficit, but it isn't very likely, and in any case Hincapie isn't the quality of rider to do it. Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling along in yellow. However, the other side to getting away in a long break is that if the peloton sees you as a danger man you won't be allowed to go. Super climbers can make a break succeed on a hard mountain stage even with the peloton against them, because if you can get over a col with a reasonable gap you can sometimes stay away on the descent (particularly if you have three or four guys with you). Anyone else will only get into a successful break, fundamentally, if they're permitted to. -- (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/ Morning had broken. I found a rather battered tube of Araldite resin in the bottom of the toolbag. |
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Newcomer question
Simon Brooke wrote:
Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling along in yellow. ....and far more entertaining as well! He's even more motivated than usual to attack. Mark J. |
#7
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Newcomer question
in message , Mark
') wrote: Simon Brooke wrote: Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling along in yellow. ...and far more entertaining as well! He's even more motivated than usual to attack. Isn't he just? Expect a breakaway sometime in the next three days. Expect him to appear to be riding /against/ Astana... Tomorrow is going to be a great stage! -- (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/ ;; Diplomacy, American: see Intelligence, Military |
#8
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Newcomer question
In article
, Mark wrote: Simon Brooke wrote: Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling along in yellow. ...and far more entertaining as well! He's even more motivated than usual to attack. Everybody-- How motivated is he? -- Michael Press |
#9
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Newcomer question
Simon Brooke wrote:
in message , Mark ') wrote: Simon Brooke wrote: Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling along in yellow. ...and far more entertaining as well! He's even more motivated than usual to attack. Isn't he just? Expect a breakaway sometime in the next three days. Expect him to appear to be riding /against/ Astana... If any Astana rider rides _against_ Vinokurov he will be pulled from the team the following day, even Kloeden. Tomorrow is going to be a great stage! for shure. -- Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) http://blog.reippuert.dk Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007. |
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