How little inventory is out there

On 29/11/2020 17:23, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 11/29/2020 10:55 AM, jbeattie wrote:

There were and are supply chain issues, but it seems like the
demand planners really fell on their faces, too.

I'm not sure we can fault them. Bike sales suddenly jumped something
like 75% over the previous year. Even if a bike company had all the
necessary stock on hand - which would be impossible - it would be
very tough to ramp up production by such a large amount.

Going to flood the second hand market in 12-24 months :-)

"Just in time" inventory control can normally save companies very
significant money. But it makes it much harder to respond to this
once-in-a-career surge.

On 11/29/2020 12:31 PM, Tosspot wrote:
On 29/11/2020 17:23, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 11/29/2020 10:55 AM, jbeattie wrote:

There were and are supply chain issues, but it seems like the
demand planners really fell on their faces, too.

I'm not sure we can fault them. Bike sales suddenly jumped something
Â*like 75% over the previous year. Even if a bike company had all the
Â*necessary stock on hand - which would be impossible - it would be
very tough to ramp up production by such a large amount.

Going to flood the second hand market in 12-24 months :-)

When we were helping a guy find a kid's bike back around June, that's
what one shop guy told us. "If you wait until next year, they'll all be
on Craigslist."


--
- Frank Krygowski

On 11/29/2020 7:55 AM, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 11:18:41 PM UTC-8, Ralph Barone wrote:
I decided today that I would probably have a bit of leftover money at the
year end, so maybe I’d buy myself one of those newfangled smart trainers to
replace my ancient Minoura mag trainer. Looking online, I can’t find
anything for sale in my area. I knew that cycling has had a popularity boom
and that there have been supply chain issues, but is it that bad everywhere
else?

Western Bikeworks in PDX has some Tacx trainers. https://www.westernbikeworks.com/pro...-drive-trainer Spendy. Bike Gallery has some trainers. https://www.bikegallery.com/product/...r-366464-1.htm River City, too: https://www.rivercitybicycles.com/pr...iner-18176.htm They certainly don't have the usual selection, and one of the big local shops, Universal, is pretty picked-over. https://www.universalcycles.com/shop...p?category=458

There were and are supply chain issues, but it seems like the demand planners really fell on their faces, too. Specialized way underestimated he demand and is now looking at Spring before many of its bike will be available again. The tariffs caused problems, too, as domestic companies had to shift manufacturing from China to Vietnam, Myanmar, etc. There were already supply disruptions for some products even before COVID.

-- Jay Beattie.

REI (at REI.com) *seems* to have the top-end Tacx stuff, but it's hard
to tell from their website if things are *actually* in stock. REI
doesn't discount, as a rule, so pricey, but if you're a member you get a
~10% rebate next summer.

Mark J.

On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 8:23:36 AM UTC-8, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 11/29/2020 10:55 AM, jbeattie wrote:

There were and are supply chain issues, but it seems like the demand planners really fell on their faces, too.
I'm not sure we can fault them. Bike sales suddenly jumped something
like 75% over the previous year. Even if a bike company had all the
necessary stock on hand - which would be impossible - it would be very
tough to ramp up production by such a large amount.

"Just in time" inventory control can normally save companies very
significant money. But it makes it much harder to respond to this
once-in-a-career surge.

That's fair. I'm reacting to some post hoc decisions based on assumptions that demand would go down during the pandemic. I would have hedged, but hindsight is 20/20. It was a black-swan event.

I was riding today with my friend who is VP of design/manufacturing at Yakima, and some of their shortages resulted from demand planning but most were supply chain, domestic and Chinese. Once a plant shutters, its not that easy to get it back up and running. Some employees go elsewhere.

-- Jay Beattie.

On Sun, 29 Nov 2020 15:12:39 -0800, Mark J. wrote:


REI (at REI.com) *seems* to have the top-end Tacx stuff, but it's hard
to tell from their website if things are *actually* in stock.

Exceedingly widespread in the computer part store here. One in the
wholesalers warehouse inventory will be listed in 30+ stores as in stock.
Impossible to know until you actually pony up funds to place the order.