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#61
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State your opinion on COVID-19
John B. writes:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 21:18:54 -0400, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 3/29/2020 1:35 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: Frank Krygowski writes: On 3/28/2020 7:15 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: Frank Krygowski writes: We have one friend with whom we shared a six-foot-separated picnic. She has no symptoms, but she had to take off her mask to eat. Other friends (we've seen a dozen, max) have been almost as careful, but no masks. A dozen since the Ohio "shelter in place" order? Honestly that seems like a large number to me. Our social life is pretty much all remote now, aside from two or three chance meetings. About half of those were on March 17, before the official order, but even then we were being very careful. At that time, they had said "6 feet minimum" and (I think) "no more than 10 in a group." I interpreted the figure of ten people as an upper limit for gatherings not exempted, not carte blanche to get together with nine of your friends. But until the tear gas drones are deployed each of us must use his own best judgement. We were careful. There were seven of us in a 20' x 40' room, spaced at least six feet apart, playing musical instruments. Twelve days later, none have any symptoms. I don't think we did anything dangerous. Ah Frank! If there were seven of you in a room and twelve days later none of the twelve have any symptoms it wouldn't be proof that you did the right thing. It would be proof that none of you had the disease. :-) Proof they didn't have the disease, but not proof that they didn't have the virus, nor proof that they were incapable of passing it on. |
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#62
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State your opinion on COVID-19
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 21:34:36 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/29/2020 9:24 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: Sir Ridesalot writes: On Sunday, 29 March 2020 21:02:23 UTC-4, John B. wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:37:44 -0000 (UTC), news18 wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:12:34 +0700, John B. wrote: It depends on the surface. For sars-Cov2, Cu about 4 hours to plastic for weeks. also depends on the mu-flora and wheather if gets consumed ' Ok, on a plastic surface it is viable for weeks. But what is Cu? and I did look... and came across 82 definitions, starting with Credit Union and ending with Coefficient of Utilization. -- cheers, John B. Cu (from Latin: cuprum)is the symbol for copper. Cheers Or Christian Union, or Coming Unglued, or Celeron Unit, or Cardiac Unit, or... :-) Yes, any of those might have it too, but you wouldn't normally define them as a surface I was attempting to point out how ludicrous this constant use of abbreviations is. I mean, well... if you can't spell than, what the hell, just look it up. But apparently I was being too subtle :-( -- cheers, John B. A LOT of people use their cell phone to access this newsgroup and thus rely on abbreviations to keep their texts shorter. Chemists use them because they are understood regardless of language, although I'm not sure what they do in non-Latin scripts. Now there's a great question! And 'technical' too ! I had no idea but it turns out to be amazingly universal: https://sciencenotes.org/wp-content/...aElementov.png https://sciencenotes.org/wp-content/...huuki-hyou.png Hey Mr Slocumb: http://canov.jergym.cz/vyhledav/varianty/th.gif Yup, seems to be a chart of how letters of the English alphabet are pronounced. For Thai children, I'd guess. -- cheers, John B. |
#63
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State your opinion on COVID-19
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 22:24:35 -0400, Radey Shouman
wrote: Sir Ridesalot writes: On Sunday, 29 March 2020 21:02:23 UTC-4, John B. wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:37:44 -0000 (UTC), news18 wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:12:34 +0700, John B. wrote: It depends on the surface. For sars-Cov2, Cu about 4 hours to plastic for weeks. also depends on the mu-flora and wheather if gets consumed ' Ok, on a plastic surface it is viable for weeks. But what is Cu? and I did look... and came across 82 definitions, starting with Credit Union and ending with Coefficient of Utilization. -- cheers, John B. Cu (from Latin: cuprum)is the symbol for copper. Cheers Or Christian Union, or Coming Unglued, or Celeron Unit, or Cardiac Unit, or... :-) Yes, any of those might have it too, but you wouldn't normally define them as a surface I was attempting to point out how ludicrous this constant use of abbreviations is. I mean, well... if you can't spell than, what the hell, just look it up. But apparently I was being too subtle :-( -- cheers, John B. A LOT of people use their cell phone to access this newsgroup and thus rely on abbreviations to keep their texts shorter. Chemists use them because they are understood regardless of language, although I'm not sure what they do in non-Latin scripts. Right. They are understood in a specific circumstance. And perhaps even in a subset of a specific circumstance. CU can, for example be used for copper, or for Cubic, or for Cubic Unit, or even for Chymotrypsin Unit, depending on what is being discussed with whom. Used in general conversation they can be confusing. LOL for example... Lots Of Luck? Laughing Out Loud? Lots Of Love? -- cheers, John B. |
#64
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State your opinion on COVID-19
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 21:31:20 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote: On 3/29/2020 8:57 PM, John B. wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski wrote: with John B wrote: On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot wrote: On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote: As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs, defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone" allusions. Things get obscured. *SKIP* Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-( For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe this. X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of posting by "John B")) x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X) x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X) p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018) p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019) Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be ( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ). Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But important question is -- at what timespan? plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong. You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20 cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million and Thailand 0.1/1 million. Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10 January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is 22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2 days is negligible :-) Regarding Thailand and the U.S., it's notable that Thailand's population density is more than triple that of the U.S. I think it's highly likely that density makes transmission easier. And in fact, the COVID problem in the U.S. is largely confined to dense cities. Cattle ranchers in Wyoming don't have to worry much. I think if you adjusted the denominators to exclude the vast, isolated areas of the U.S., our data would look much worse by comparison. But I assume our political systems and cultures are very different. Strategies that work in Thailand may be impractical or impossible here. Yes, as a general statement, population density may well be the determining factor. There is a very distinct center of the Virus here. Bangkok. The Government is doing a pretty good job at tracing the cause of the virus cases in the rest of the country and in nearly all cases it has been someone from Bangkok. We had one case in this little country town. A relative of someone from Bangkok developed the sniffles and went to the hospital. They checked her and sent her home. She still hasn't developed the disease. And, I would have to say, there doesn't seem to be any panic. If you go to any of the larger stores you get your temperature taken before you can go in and most people are wearing masks now, and we don't see any hoarding. No empty shelves in the toilet paper section of the supermarket. Although this may be different in Bangkok. And yes, the Thai people probably are probably more complacent than USians. Remember that the Thai population is still largely agrarian, or dependent on agriculture in some manner. Getting the rice planted is of far greater importance that "what those people in Bangkok are doing". -- cheers, John B. |
#65
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State your opinion on COVID-19
Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 3/29/2020 9:09 PM, AMuzi wrote: On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski wrote: with John B wrote: On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot wrote: On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank KrygowskiÂ* wrote: As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs, defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone" allusions.Â* Things get obscured. *SKIP* Thailand has imposed some pretty draconianÂ* regulations to fight the virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-( For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz?Â* Let me reframe this. Â* XÂ*Â* -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B";Â* I'm Â*Â*Â*Â* not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of Â*Â*Â*Â* posting by "John B")) Â* x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X) Â* x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X) Â* p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018) Â* p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019) Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be ( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ). Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand.Â* But important question is -- at what timespan? plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong. You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20 cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million and Thailand 0.1/1 million. Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10 January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is 22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great thanÂ* 2 days is negligible :-) -- cheers, John B. As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were infected, asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result or report, and so on. These are preliminary figures and as is often said, in war the first three reports are wrong. Damn. If only there were lots of testing kits... And don’t forget that you need two different kinds of testing kits. One that lights up on the virus itself, so you know who’s infected, and one that lights up on antibodies to the virus, so you know who has had it and has already recovered. |
#66
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State your opinion on COVID-19
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 22:12:20 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/29/2020 9:52 PM, John B. wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 20:09:40 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski wrote: with John B wrote: On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot wrote: On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote: As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs, defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone" allusions. Things get obscured. *SKIP* Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-( For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe this. X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of posting by "John B")) x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X) x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X) p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018) p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019) Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be ( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ). Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But important question is -- at what timespan? plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong. You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20 cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million and Thailand 0.1/1 million. Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10 January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is 22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2 days is negligible :-) As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were infected, asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result or report, and so on. These are preliminary figures and as is often said, in war the first three reports are wrong. Ah yes... but preliminary numbers are all that there are :-0 As for "the first three reports are wrong"... I suspect that depends greatly on what the reports are. For example, it was said that the U.S. daily reporting of enemy killed during the Vietnam fiasco, if added up, amounted to something like the entire population of N. Vietnam. I can't recall who coined that phrase, Napoleon maybe? But it's much quoted and often spot-on. Sort of like Custer and the boys coming over the hill and thinking, "Hell, they are only Indians" :-) -- cheers, John B. |
#67
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State your opinion on COVID-19
Am 30.03.2020 um 02:57 schrieb John B.:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski wrote: with John B wrote: On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot wrote: On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote: As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs, defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone" allusions. Things get obscured. *SKIP* Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-( For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe this. X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of posting by "John B")) x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X) x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X) p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018) p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019) Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be ( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ). Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But important question is -- at what timespan? plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong. You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20 cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million and Thailand 0.1/1 million. Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10 January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is 22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2 days is negligible :-) Some graphical comparisons are here http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#covid-world-seasia including Thailand vs USA on graph 27. |
#68
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State your opinion on COVID-19
Am 29.03.2020 um 03:40 schrieb John B.:
how long does a virus, or perhaps more accurately a virion, remain viable and able to infect another creature if it is outside a living body. Or in simple terms if a virion falls on the floor how long can it lay there and still be capable of causing a disease? This is completely unknown. What we do know are some numbers how long the virus DNA is detectable on various surfaces. We do not know how much virus load is needed to trigger an infection (with measles it's very few, with COVID, it's probably a lot), and we don't know how long the virus stays in an active form outside the body. The only thing that we can safely say is that smear contagion is a very minor source of infection compared to droplet contagion. |
#69
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State your opinion on COVID-19
Am 29.03.2020 um 18:59 schrieb Tom Kunich:
Seasonal flu as a rule kills people in the prime of their lives. Especially dangerous to children 5 years and under. The overwhelming majority of cases are to people under 65 years of age. If this is really true for the US, then it would be a sign how bad your health system is. In Europe, seaonal flu kills mostly those aged 65 and above. |
#70
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State your opinion on COVID-19
On 3/30/2020 12:35 AM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 22:12:20 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 3/29/2020 9:52 PM, John B. wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 20:09:40 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 3/29/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski wrote: with John B wrote: On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot wrote: On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote: As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs, defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone" allusions. Things get obscured. *SKIP* Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-( For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe this. X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of posting by "John B")) x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X) x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X) p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018) p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019) Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be ( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ). Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But important question is -- at what timespan? plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong. You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20 cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million and Thailand 0.1/1 million. Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10 January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is 22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2 days is negligible :-) As yet there's no way to know how many people are/ were infected, asymptomatic carriers, recovered without result or report, and so on. These are preliminary figures and as is often said, in war the first three reports are wrong. Ah yes... but preliminary numbers are all that there are :-0 As for "the first three reports are wrong"... I suspect that depends greatly on what the reports are. For example, it was said that the U.S. daily reporting of enemy killed during the Vietnam fiasco, if added up, amounted to something like the entire population of N. Vietnam. I can't recall who coined that phrase, Napoleon maybe? But it's much quoted and often spot-on. Sort of like Custer and the boys coming over the hill and thinking, "Hell, they are only Indians" :-) The actual quotation is General Sedgewick's "They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance." after which he was felled from his horse by a sniper and died. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
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