magilla and i called this one

On Sep 13, 10:31*am, Donald Munro wrote:
Uncle Dave wrote:
Evidently trying to run two careers is having an effect. *He was subbed
against Man City today too...

He appears to have problems in the 2nd half then just like his alter ego.

LOL

UD

On Sep 14, 10:41*am, Dwayne wrote:
On Sep 12, 7:49*pm, Bob Schwartz
wrote:

Time will tell, but he is on track to satisfy my prediction
algorithm of what has happened in the past is the most
likely future event.

He's still in 9th place, with a good chance of finishing in top 10,
which would be rather consistent with prediction algorithms. *IMO
Vuelta top-10 is TD's career upside.

With his TT ability it's conceivable he could move up a spot or two.
And since he's probably no longer considered a GC threat he might have
the freedom to go for a stage win in Stage 19 while the main
contenders watch each other.

DR

On Sep 14, 1:29*pm, DirtRoadie wrote:
On Sep 14, 10:41*am, Dwayne wrote:

On Sep 12, 7:49*pm, Bob Schwartz
wrote:

Time will tell, but he is on track to satisfy my prediction
algorithm of what has happened in the past is the most
likely future event.

He's still in 9th place, with a good chance of finishing in top 10,
which would be rather consistent with prediction algorithms. *IMO
Vuelta top-10 is TD's career upside.

With his TT ability it's *conceivable he could move up a spot or two.
And since he's probably no longer considered a GC threat he might have
the freedom to go for a stage win in Stage 19 while the main
contenders watch each other.

DR

9th to 7th? big whup. TD is to grand tours as Hincapie is to P-R ...
someone who is capable of occasional nice performances but will never
really be able to deliver the goods.

On Sep 14, 12:11*pm, bar wrote:
9th to 7th? big whup. *TD is to grand tours as Hincapie is to P-R ...
someone who is capable of occasional nice performances but will never
really be able to deliver the goods.

I was just commenting objectively about the possibilities. Place
whatever value you wish on them.

DR

DirtRoadie wrote:
On Sep 14, 12:11 pm, bar wrote:
9th to 7th? big whup. TD is to grand tours as Hincapie is to P-R ...
someone who is capable of occasional nice performances but will never
really be able to deliver the goods.

I was just commenting objectively about the possibilities. Place
whatever value you wish on them.

If it were me I would be attacking on Stage 19 to the best of
my ability. I think a stage win does more than a GC bump.

Bob Schwartz

On Sep 14, 1:17*pm, Bob Schwartz
wrote:
DirtRoadie wrote:
On Sep 14, 12:11 pm, bar wrote:
9th to 7th? big whup. *TD is to grand tours as Hincapie is to P-R ....
someone who is capable of occasional nice performances but will never
really be able to deliver the goods.

I was just commenting objectively about the possibilities. Place
whatever value you wish on them.

If it were me I would be attacking on Stage 19 to the best of
my ability. I think a stage win does more than a GC bump.

At his best he could do well in either stage 19 or 20 or both,
although back-to-back efforts might be tough. The stage 20 TT is
shorter but hillier than the first one where TD was 7th, only 18
seconds slower than Millar who was 2nd. Cancellara, the winner, is no
longer in the race.
If it looks like he can't get away in 19 he might save his energy for
20.
At the other end of the spectrum, he might toast himself simply trying
to hang on in 19 and have nothing left for 20.
DR

On Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:00:15 -0700 (PDT), bar
wrote:

On Sep 14, 12:52*pm, Bob Schwartz
wrote:
Dwayne wrote:
On Sep 12, 7:49 pm, Bob Schwartz
wrote:
Time will tell, but he is on track to satisfy my prediction
algorithm of what has happened in the past is the most
likely future event.

He's still in 9th place, with a good chance of finishing in top 10,
which would be rather consistent with prediction algorithms. *IMO
Vuelta top-10 is TD's career upside.

At his age I'm thinking top 10 in the Vielta won't cut it.
Especially with Wiggins' emergence as a GC rider. Top 10 in
the Vuelta would work for him if he had value as a support
rider for a guy like Wiggins, but he doesn't.

He's done well for himself as a token American rider on
American teams. But at some point that has to play out.

Bob Schwartz

Agree. When is his current Garmin contract up? Vaughters would have
to be insane to renew it, really.

How much is he getting paid? Insane to renew a guy for only getting
top 10 in the Vuelta and winning a protour TT?

I'm not saying I like the guy, or that he's anywhere close to his
hype. But it's not like he does zero on the bike.

TD ought to come back to the states
and try to dominate for a couple of years a la Horner.

Yeah, but does he have the speed, balls and tactical nous for that?
I doubt it. I don't think he could dominate in the US. No way.. He
could dominate hill climbs.

Johnny Twelve-Point presented by JFT wrote:
On Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:00:15 -0700 (PDT), bar
wrote:

On Sep 14, 12:52 pm, Bob Schwartz
wrote:
Dwayne wrote:
On Sep 12, 7:49 pm, Bob Schwartz
wrote:
Time will tell, but he is on track to satisfy my prediction
algorithm of what has happened in the past is the most
likely future event.
He's still in 9th place, with a good chance of finishing in top 10,
which would be rather consistent with prediction algorithms. IMO
Vuelta top-10 is TD's career upside.
At his age I'm thinking top 10 in the Vielta won't cut it.
Especially with Wiggins' emergence as a GC rider. Top 10 in
the Vuelta would work for him if he had value as a support
rider for a guy like Wiggins, but he doesn't.

He's done well for himself as a token American rider on
American teams. But at some point that has to play out.

Bob Schwartz
Agree. When is his current Garmin contract up? Vaughters would have
to be insane to renew it, really.

How much is he getting paid? Insane to renew a guy for only getting
top 10 in the Vuelta and winning a protour TT?

I'm not saying I like the guy, or that he's anywhere close to his
hype. But it's not like he does zero on the bike.

If he were younger taking 9th place in the Vuelta would be
a big deal. But he's not. No one gets a job as team leader
with a top end of 9th place in the Vuelta. And at his age
that's his top end.

9th place in the Vuelta could get you a job at his age as
a support rider. Those are the guys that someone like Johan
would hire to drive the pace in the Alps during the Tour.
But no one is going to hire him as a support rider.

He could do well at the Tour of the Gila. Provided Mellow
Johnnys doesn't show up.

Bob Schwartz

On Mon, 14 Sep 2009 20:13:25 -0500, Bob Schwartz
wrote:

If he were younger taking 9th place in the Vuelta would be
a big deal. But he's not. No one gets a job as team leader
with a top end of 9th place in the Vuelta. And at his age
that's his top end.

Unless no one in positions 1-8 are available or more accomplished.
With 10-15 teams with hopes and one or two with expectations, if all
of the 24 spots in the three tours were unique, he would still
potentially be a team leader, what with some teams playing like the
New York Yankees in the 50s and 60s with the talent pool.

And I will qualify further and say you are right - no one gets the job
as team leader in the tours with 9th in the Vuelta, but one may keep
their job if no else is available. The real danger is that you may be
relegated to Super Maid if someone IS available. Still, you can have a
career as the last one splaying off up the mountain for the real
leader. Everyone seems to be coming to a consensus that this would be
TD's real calling.

Curtis L. Russell
Odenton, MD (USA)
Just someone on two wheels...

wrote:
On Mon, 14 Sep 2009 20:13:25 -0500, Bob Schwartz
wrote:

If he were younger taking 9th place in the Vuelta would be
a big deal. But he's not. No one gets a job as team leader
with a top end of 9th place in the Vuelta. And at his age
that's his top end.

Unless no one in positions 1-8 are available or more accomplished.
With 10-15 teams with hopes and one or two with expectations, if all
of the 24 spots in the three tours were unique, he would still
potentially be a team leader, what with some teams playing like the
New York Yankees in the 50s and 60s with the talent pool.

Many teams have a designated team leader that is targeting
stage wins. The list of riders with legitimate GC aspirations
is smaller than the number of invited teams, as you note.

Bob Schwartz