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Will Lance quit?



 
 
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  #11  
Old July 19th 03, 06:01 AM
warren
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Default Will Lance quit?



"Fred Marx" wrote in message
...


the OLN video from the end of the evening coverage sure didn't look good
as they compared LA to JU.. Lance looked spent and Jan looked like he'd
had a good workout...


That's what winning looks like.

-WG
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  #12  
Old July 19th 03, 06:09 AM
Antti Salonen
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Default Will Lance quit?

"NS" wrote:

His (Lance's) overall lead has increased 13 seconds or so as of today.
The only difference is Ullrich is in second instead of Vinokourov.
Second place on back doesn't matter in the big picture. Why would LA
want to burn himself out? I say he is being conservative.


He certainly didn't look like he was taking it easy, when he finally
appeared on the finish line 1:35 down. AFAIK it is tactically dumb to
hold back in a time trial. The only riders who you see doing it are the
ones who are simply not racing for a good general classification
position (like Virenque yesterday).

Lance and the USPS Team can't be sure what Ullrich's or Vinokourov's
form is in the Pyrenees. They didn't dominate like everybody's used to
in the Alps, either, so being conservative would be plain stupid. Lance
was never conservative in the TT's before, even when the race was much
more firmly in his and his team's hands. Mayo and Zubeldia are also too
close and too strong to be forgotten. Lance lost valuable time
yesterday, although he's obviously still a big favourite.

...Did Ullrich get spent trying to win the stage like
Patacchi did after that big sprint? Will he have enough to stay in
contention while racing through the mountainous stages?


I don't think recovering from a short TT is a problem for riders at this
level.

-as

  #13  
Old July 19th 03, 09:13 AM
Keith
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Default Will Lance quit?

On Sat, 19 Jul 2003 01:40:28 GMT, "Corey Green"
wrote:

Have to agree with you there. He already proved he could gain time on
Ullrich in the mountains - tomorrow through Tuesday we should see more of
the same.


Yeah but that was when he gained time on him in ITT's too (2000 and
2001). While that doesn't mean it will be reversed this year, it
certainly shouldn't be inferred from 2000/2001 that the same will
happen this year. In the Alpe d'Huez, Ullrich was recovering fom a
nasty stomach problem
  #14  
Old July 19th 03, 10:29 AM
Jonathan v.d. Sluis
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Default Will Lance quit?

NS schreef in berichtnieuws
...
His (Lance's) overall lead has increased 13 seconds or so as of today.
The only difference is Ullrich is in second instead of Vinokourov.
Second place on back doesn't matter in the big picture. Why would LA
want to burn himself out? I say he is being conservative. The big
question is ...Did Ullrich get spent trying to win the stage like
Patacchi did after that big sprint? Will he have enough to stay in
contention while racing through the mountainous stages?




NS


If Armstrong is counting on Ullrich to have a bad day, he's making a big
mistake. I don't believe that Ullrich will lose considerable time - if any
at all - in the next four stages. Ullrich is riding with confidence and
knowledge about his own abilities. On Alpe d'Huez I was amazed by his
ability to ride in his own pace and still minimize his loss towards
Armstrong. Ullrich knew what he was doing. At the same time, he has shown in
the past that he can improve as the tour progresses, and I don't see why
this year would be an exception. In 2001, he was attacking Armstrong in the
stage to Luz Ardiden, setting a pace that was hard to keep up with.
Armstrong had been able to attack the previous day, and finished with a
minute. How good are their relative individual strengths this year? Perhaps
it is true that Time Trials don't lie, as Johan Bruyneel said. That would
mean that Ullrich is better, who has the added advantage of the victory at
the TT, which brings a definite psychological advantage.

In the best possible scenario for Ullrich, his climbing speed will be too
much for Armstrong. I don't think this is an impossible scenario. Ullrich
might lead so hard that a serious jump away from him would be impossible and
consequently he could pick up Armstrong and then leave him behind. Anyone
who considers this impossible is terribly underestimating Ullrich.

The best possible scenario for Armstrong is that he finds the form he has
been missing these two weeks. He needs to attack like he has done the last
couple of years, accelerating to a speed that Ullrich cannot keep up with.
After gaining time, he must consolidate, and minimize the time that Ullrich
would gain back. Armstrong used to be capable of this, but on Alpe d'Huez he
failed, even though he was clearly counting on attacking on that final
climb. He would not have let his team work so much if he did not expect
important results that day. They have been working for some days now, and
another effort like the one on the 8th stage will be more difficult for him.
The US Postal team, however, is very strong this year, and they might be
capable of more miracles.

Jonathan.




  #15  
Old July 19th 03, 10:29 AM
Ewoud Dronkert
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Default Will Lance quit?

On Sat, 19 Jul 2003 08:11:25 GMT, Keith wrote:
Pettachi (check your spelling dude)


It's Petacchi, *dude*.
  #16  
Old July 19th 03, 11:37 AM
Isidor Gunsberg
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Default Will Lance quit?

Antti Salonen wrote in message ...
"NS" wrote:

His (Lance's) overall lead has increased 13 seconds or so as of today.
The only difference is Ullrich is in second instead of Vinokourov.
Second place on back doesn't matter in the big picture. Why would LA
want to burn himself out? I say he is being conservative.


He certainly didn't look like he was taking it easy, when he finally
appeared on the finish line 1:35 down. AFAIK it is tactically dumb to
hold back in a time trial. The only riders who you see doing it are the
ones who are simply not racing for a good general classification
position (like Virenque yesterday).

Lance and the USPS Team can't be sure what Ullrich's or Vinokourov's
form is in the Pyrenees. They didn't dominate like everybody's used to
in the Alps, either, so being conservative would be plain stupid. Lance
was never conservative in the TT's before, even when the race was much
more firmly in his and his team's hands. Mayo and Zubeldia are also too
close and too strong to be forgotten. Lance lost valuable time
yesterday, although he's obviously still a big favourite.



There is no way a rider who is trying for the podium would ever
give less than the maximum effort in an ITT. A Time Trial is simply
the best way to win time against one's rivals. Let's look at the
facts:

-- LA looked whipped after the Time Trial

-- He admitted that he suffered in the heat

-- He only gained scant time against other rivals...only about 30
seconds over Vinokourov, and the Spanish riders are still too close
for comfort.

-- It is much more difficult to gain time in the mountain stage,
since Ullrich has the prospect of marking him, and the climbing
specialists can attack him

--Armstrong himself emphasized the seminal importance of the time
trial.


Unlike Merckx, Armstrong only races flat out on just a few stages.
A time trial is definitely one of them.

He needs to win a stage in the Pyrenees, since otherwise he
faces the prospect of winning the TDF, yet without winning a single
stage. A win is a win, but surely Lance would like to show to the
world that he can still dominate, at least on a given day.

...Did Ullrich get spent trying to win the stage like
Patacchi did after that big sprint? Will he have enough to stay in
contention while racing through the mountainous stages?


I don't think recovering from a short TT is a problem for riders at this
level.


Just so. If Lance were indeed **trying** to rest by racing
conservatively on the time trial, then it was a Fool's Errand. He have
to expend that much, and more, in the upcoming Mountain stages, just
to make good the time that he lost. Tactically speaking, he'd be MUCH
better off if he still had his 2 minute lead over Ullrich. THEN,
Armstrong could afford to ride conservatively.

Lance is in real jeopardy. This is not to say that the situation
is hopeless. He has the better team. He is a better climber than
Ullrich. He still holds the lead. Those are some nice trumps to hold.
In the next few days, we will find out what comprises the rest of his
hand. He better find his legs in the next couple of days, or he won't
shake Ullrich, and he'll find it difficult to hold him off in the 2nd
Individual Time Trial.

Ever since Alp D'Huez, there has been a litany of excuses: The
record heat, a virus, dehydration, an "off day", bike crashes, brake
problems, bad pacing by his teammate (Beltran), constant attacks by
his rivals, the other teams ganging up on him, the structure of this
year's Tour (entering the Alps relatively early, having a late 1st
Individual Time Trial).

Armstrong is running out of days to prove that he is a Champion.
Every day that ticks by without a stage win entails a greater and
greater chance that Lance won't be able to pull it out in the end.

-as

  #17  
Old July 19th 03, 01:45 PM
David Ryan
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Default Will Lance quit?

Slider2699 wrote:

"Callistus Valerius" wrote in message
...
I've heard Lance say that if he can't win the tdf, that he would quit. If
it becomes evident in the next couple of stages, that Lance can't win,

will
he quit?


The man doesn't have any quit in him. Geez, he overcame CANCER, and you
think he'll quit a bike race if he gets behind? Get a clue.


He *could* think about the Vuelta.
But I believe you're right.
  #18  
Old July 19th 03, 01:56 PM
David Ryan
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Default Will Lance quit?

"Jonathan v.d. Sluis" wrote:

If Armstrong is counting on Ullrich to have a bad day, he's making a big
mistake.


Ullrich is allegedly having a bad day.
(Waiting for the proof on the first climb however)
  #19  
Old July 19th 03, 02:15 PM
David Ryan
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Default Will Lance quit?

Isidor Gunsberg wrote:

Unlike Merckx, Armstrong only races flat out on just a few stages.
A time trial is definitely one of them.

He needs to win a stage in the Pyrenees, since otherwise he
faces the prospect of winning the TDF, yet without winning a single
stage.


According to letour.com:

2003 not ranked
o Wore the yellow jersey
o 1 stage victory : Stage 4 : JOINVILLE - SAINT-DIZIER

(the TTT)
  #20  
Old July 19th 03, 11:47 PM
Dan Gregory
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Default Will Lance quit?


"David Ryan" wrote in message
...
Ullrich is allegedly having a bad day.

Listening to Virenque on France 2 after the race Ulrich had to stop with a
bad case of the runs. His shorts were put straight into a plastic bag at the
end of the stage.
Pretty sure sign of dehydration (well not so pretty)...
A demain
Dan


 




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