|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#11
|
|||
|
|||
"gym gravity" wrote in message ... Robert Chung wrote: amit wrote: do you seriously think they put into practice an untested doping test ? I think they put into practice an unvetted doping test. I think that is why he will be "exonerated" and that he is very lucky to have falsely tested positive twice (or is it once, or is it three times?). Don't forget Santi Perez's two positives. If they're all false positives, that makes five from two guys on one team. What are the odds? |
Ads |
#12
|
|||
|
|||
B Lafferty wrote:
"gym gravity" wrote in message ... Robert Chung wrote: amit wrote: do you seriously think they put into practice an untested doping test ? I think they put into practice an unvetted doping test. I think that is why he will be "exonerated" and that he is very lucky to have falsely tested positive twice (or is it once, or is it three times?). Don't forget Santi Perez's two positives. If they're all false positives, that makes five from two guys on one team. What are the odds? From a probability standpoint, I do agree that Santi Perez's positive is troublesome, even as a false positive. What I will say is that if Tyler is exonerated, then Perez will also likely be exonerated because he's also apppealing to CAS. Magilla |
#13
|
|||
|
|||
On Tue, 01 Mar 2005 15:48:16 GMT, B Lafferty wrote:
Don't forget Santi Perez's two positives. If they're all false positives, that makes five from two guys on one team. What are the odds? We don't know, because there is nothing published on false positive (or false negative for that matter) rates for this test. -- Firefox Web Browser - Rediscover the web - http://getffox.com/ Thunderbird E-mail and Newsgroups - http://gettbird.com/ |
#14
|
|||
|
|||
What is it about the test that is unvetted? Applying it to a cyclist
as opposed to an expectant mother? |
#15
|
|||
|
|||
On 1 Mar 2005 09:56:02 -0800, wrote:
What is it about the test that is unvetted? Applying it to a cyclist as opposed to an expectant mother? Well that could be one aspect, yes. Elite athletes are special specimens of mankind. -- Firefox Web Browser - Rediscover the web - http://getffox.com/ Thunderbird E-mail and Newsgroups - http://gettbird.com/ |
#16
|
|||
|
|||
Ewoud Dronkert wrote: On Tue, 01 Mar 2005 15:48:16 GMT, B Lafferty wrote: Don't forget Santi Perez's two positives. If they're all false positives, that makes five from two guys on one team. What are the odds? We don't know, because there is nothing published on false positive (or false negative for that matter) rates for this test. Let's say that all the tests are false positives. What are the odds that the *only two* riders to get the false positive are teamates and roomates? Let's say 500 riders were tested. Two false positives make the rate 1 in 250. Then those two get tested again. They both test positive *again*. The odds of that happening are 250^4 = 3,906,250,000 about one in 4 billion. Then factor in the fact that they're roomates. Multiply the 4 billion by 499. 1 in 2 trillion. Poor Tugboat. K. Gringioni. |
#17
|
|||
|
|||
Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
1 in 2 trillion. Like I was saying, Tyler's really lucky. |
#18
|
|||
|
|||
Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
Then those two get tested again. They both test positive *again*. The odds of that happening are 250^4 You're assuming independence. |
#19
|
|||
|
|||
Kurgan Gringioni wrote: Ewoud Dronkert wrote: On Tue, 01 Mar 2005 15:48:16 GMT, B Lafferty wrote: Don't forget Santi Perez's two positives. If they're all false positives, that makes five from two guys on one team. What are the odds? We don't know, because there is nothing published on false positive (or false negative for that matter) rates for this test. Let's say that all the tests are false positives. What are the odds that the *only two* riders to get the false positive are teamates and roomates? Let's say 500 riders were tested. Two false positives make the rate 1 in 250. Then those two get tested again. They both test positive *again*. The odds of that happening are 250^4 = 3,906,250,000 about one in 4 billion. Then factor in the fact that they're roomates. Multiply the 4 billion by 499. 1 in 2 trillion. Poor Tugboat. K. Gringioni. You are assuming pure randomness which is innappriate in this case. If there was some sort of drink or solution that Santi and Ty. took or drank and no one else took or drank that casued a false positive 90% of the time. Then the odds of them getting 4 false positives between the two of them is 65%. Although, firmly in the realm of oliver stone land, It wouldn't surprise me if some jarkarse doctor switched Santi's and Ty. blood by accident and they each got the others. |
#20
|
|||
|
|||
|
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Tyler in long BBC interview | David George | Racing | 0 | November 29th 04 11:29 AM |
Marital discord - Hamilton | crit pro | Racing | 9 | September 27th 04 12:42 PM |
Tyler Not Cleared, Lab Blunder | never_doped | Racing | 2 | September 25th 04 06:33 AM |
Olympic Pick Contest: finaler | Dan Connelly | Racing | 2 | August 19th 04 04:44 AM |
Tyler Hamilton Foundation Kick-Off | Richard Adams | Racing | 0 | November 10th 03 08:25 PM |