A Cycling & bikes forum. CycleBanter.com

Go Back   Home » CycleBanter.com forum » rec.bicycles » Racing
Site Map Home Register Authors List Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Web Partners

Tyler Takes An IMAX Hit



 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old March 1st 05, 04:48 PM
B Lafferty
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"gym gravity" wrote in message
...
Robert Chung wrote:

amit wrote:

do you seriously think they put into practice an untested doping test ?



I think they put into practice an unvetted doping test.


I think that is why he will be "exonerated" and that he is very lucky to
have falsely tested positive twice (or is it once, or is it three times?).


Don't forget Santi Perez's two positives. If they're all false positives,
that makes five from two guys on one team. What are the odds?


Ads
  #12  
Old March 1st 05, 05:31 PM
MagillaGorilla
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

B Lafferty wrote:

"gym gravity" wrote in message
...

Robert Chung wrote:


amit wrote:


do you seriously think they put into practice an untested doping test ?


I think they put into practice an unvetted doping test.



I think that is why he will be "exonerated" and that he is very lucky to
have falsely tested positive twice (or is it once, or is it three times?).



Don't forget Santi Perez's two positives. If they're all false positives,
that makes five from two guys on one team. What are the odds?



From a probability standpoint, I do agree that Santi Perez's positive
is troublesome, even as a false positive.

What I will say is that if Tyler is exonerated, then Perez will also
likely be exonerated because he's also apppealing to CAS.


Magilla
  #13  
Old March 1st 05, 06:12 PM
Ewoud Dronkert
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

On Tue, 01 Mar 2005 15:48:16 GMT, B Lafferty wrote:
Don't forget Santi Perez's two positives. If they're all false positives,
that makes five from two guys on one team. What are the odds?


We don't know, because there is nothing published on false positive (or
false negative for that matter) rates for this test.

--
Firefox Web Browser - Rediscover the web - http://getffox.com/
Thunderbird E-mail and Newsgroups - http://gettbird.com/
  #14  
Old March 1st 05, 06:56 PM
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

What is it about the test that is unvetted? Applying it to a cyclist
as opposed to an expectant mother?

  #16  
Old March 1st 05, 07:21 PM
Kurgan Gringioni
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


Ewoud Dronkert wrote:
On Tue, 01 Mar 2005 15:48:16 GMT, B Lafferty wrote:
Don't forget Santi Perez's two positives. If they're all false

positives,
that makes five from two guys on one team. What are the odds?


We don't know, because there is nothing published on false positive

(or
false negative for that matter) rates for this test.




Let's say that all the tests are false positives.

What are the odds that the *only two* riders to get the false positive
are teamates and roomates?

Let's say 500 riders were tested. Two false positives make the rate 1
in 250.

Then those two get tested again. They both test positive *again*.

The odds of that happening are 250^4 = 3,906,250,000

about one in 4 billion. Then factor in the fact that they're roomates.
Multiply the 4 billion by 499.

1 in 2 trillion.

Poor Tugboat.



K. Gringioni.

  #17  
Old March 1st 05, 07:26 PM
gym gravity
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Kurgan Gringioni wrote:

1 in 2 trillion.


Like I was saying, Tyler's really lucky.
  #18  
Old March 1st 05, 08:03 PM
Robert Chung
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
Then those two get tested again. They both test positive *again*.

The odds of that happening are 250^4


You're assuming independence.


  #19  
Old March 1st 05, 08:15 PM
bobo
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
Ewoud Dronkert wrote:
On Tue, 01 Mar 2005 15:48:16 GMT, B Lafferty wrote:
Don't forget Santi Perez's two positives. If they're all false

positives,
that makes five from two guys on one team. What are the odds?


We don't know, because there is nothing published on false positive

(or
false negative for that matter) rates for this test.




Let's say that all the tests are false positives.

What are the odds that the *only two* riders to get the false

positive
are teamates and roomates?

Let's say 500 riders were tested. Two false positives make the rate 1
in 250.

Then those two get tested again. They both test positive *again*.

The odds of that happening are 250^4 = 3,906,250,000

about one in 4 billion. Then factor in the fact that they're

roomates.
Multiply the 4 billion by 499.

1 in 2 trillion.

Poor Tugboat.



K. Gringioni.


You are assuming pure randomness which is innappriate in this case.

If there was some sort of drink or solution that Santi and Ty. took or
drank and no one else took or drank that casued a false positive 90% of
the time. Then the odds of them getting 4 false positives between the
two of them is 65%.

Although, firmly in the realm of oliver stone land, It wouldn't
surprise me if some jarkarse doctor switched Santi's and Ty. blood by
accident and they each got the others.

  #20  
Old March 1st 05, 09:33 PM
Bob Schwartz
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

bobo wrote:
Although, firmly in the realm of oliver stone land, It wouldn't
surprise me if some jarkarse doctor switched Santi's and Ty. blood by
accident and they each got the others.


That would certainly give Laudien humongous bragging rights.

Bob Schwartz

 




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Tyler in long BBC interview David George Racing 0 November 29th 04 11:29 AM
Marital discord - Hamilton crit pro Racing 9 September 27th 04 12:42 PM
Tyler Not Cleared, Lab Blunder never_doped Racing 2 September 25th 04 06:33 AM
Olympic Pick Contest: finaler Dan Connelly Racing 2 August 19th 04 04:44 AM
Tyler Hamilton Foundation Kick-Off Richard Adams Racing 0 November 10th 03 08:25 PM


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 12:27 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©2004-2024 CycleBanter.com.
The comments are property of their posters.