Podium in Paris decided.

On 12-Jul-2005, smacked up and reeling, "7h@ch" blindly
formulated
the following incoherence:

Dude. I know you Danes are excited about Rasmussen and all. But this
tour is over.

Not that I expect it to happen, but even LA can get sick, have a bad day, or
even a crash. And who knows if one of the three hot climbers we saw today
will gain more minutes in the coming stages. It might come down to the
penultimate stage TT.

Lance is clearly dominant and the favorite going away, but it's not over.
Too much **** can happen.

steve
--
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Benny Hill

J Jones wrote:

Not so fast there, chief. There are still 11 stages of racing left -
ANYTHING can happen. Should Lance not crash and not get sick, he wins - no
question. But, it's not even close to being over yet.

off course any rider can get sick have accidents etc,

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) http://blog.reippuert.dk

PowerMac G5: 1.6GHz, 1.25GB RAM, 300+300GB SATA, 8xDVD+/-RW, Bluetooth
mus + tastatur, R9600PRO, iSight, eyeTV200 & LaCie Photon18Vision TFT

On Tue, 12 Jul 2005 17:44:19 GMT, "Michael"
wrote:


"Tom Kunich" wrote in message oups.com...
Morty, Rassmussen will be toasted and fried tomorrow.

Probably. But Basso attacks tomorrow. If Lance can keep up, the
race really is his.

m.

I was very surprised that Kloden hung in there pretty well today. Bet
he's smouldering at having to pull Jan the whole way, though, lol.

jj

Morten Reippuert Knudsen wrote:

Fourtunately T.De Roy, R.Sørensen and E.Breukink managed to persuaded
M.Rasmussen to follow Armstrong today, witch means we can set the
podium in Paris:

1 L.Armstrong
2 M.Rasmussen :-)
3 ?

I.Basso, L.Leipheimer and P.Macepo will fight for 3rd spot.

Rasmussen had great rides today and Sunday, but I'm not so sure about
his being able to hold second place.

Here is some data from his recent Tour ITT's:

Last year: 2004 Tour de France

Stage 19 ITT 55km
Rasmussen started the day 13th in GC, 20:20 back
Results:
Rasmussen 6:56 behind winner Armstrong
4:06 behind Basso
2:50 behind Leipheimer
4:31 behind Landis
5:55 behind Ullrich

Even uphill, in Rasmussen's element:
Stage 16 (Alpe d'Huez ITT) 15.5km
Rasmussen was...
5:08 behind winner Armstrong
2:45 behind Basso
1:02 behind Leipheimer
1:33 behind Landis
4:07 behind Ullrich

How's he doing this year: 2005 Tour de France

Stage 1 ITT 19km
Rasmussen was...
3:12 behind Armstrong
1:48 behind Basso
0:50 behind Valverde
2:01 behind Leipheimer
2:12 behind Landis
2:06 behind Ullrich

Stage 20 ITT 55km
?????????????????

Currently, Rasmussen is:
0:38 behind Armstrong
2:02 ahead of Basso
2:38 ahead of Valverde
3:20 ahead of Leipheimer
3:38 ahead of Landis
3:24 ahead of Ullrich

Today Rasmussen gained:
-0:09 on Valverde, Armstrong
0:53 on Basso
1:06 on Leipheimer
2:05 on Landis, Ullrich

If (!) Rasmussen can gain time on rivals again at Ax-3 Domaines and
St-Lary Soulan (remaining mtn top finishes) like he did today, AND not
lose time on other stages, AND time trial as he did last year, Basso
will get him at the ITT, but he beats Leipheimer, Landis, and Ullrich.

So: can Rasmussen gain time as today on the mtn top finishes, hold his
own in all other stages, and TT as well as last year? One year more
experience and a podium place to defend argue in his favor. I would
think he would reach the final TT more tired this year, though.

Any other results to compare this year to last for Rasmussen?

Mark

On Tue, 12 Jul 2005 18:56:49 GMT, "steve" wrote:


Lance is clearly dominant and the favorite going away, but it's not over.
Too much **** can happen.

The usual 'Lance wins barring injury or accident'.

Mark Janeba wrote:
Morten Reippuert Knudsen wrote:

Fourtunately T.De Roy, R.Sørensen and E.Breukink managed to persuaded
M.Rasmussen to follow Armstrong today, witch means we can set the
podium in Paris:

1 L.Armstrong
2 M.Rasmussen :-)
3 ?

I.Basso, L.Leipheimer and P.Macepo will fight for 3rd spot.

Rasmussen had great rides today and Sunday, but I'm not so sure about
his being able to hold second place.

Here is some data from his recent Tour ITT's:

Waste of time posting this: Rasmussen almost certainly wasn't trying too
hard in any of these. You only try in a TT if you care about GC, if you
think you'll place in the TT, or if you get team orders (set marks for the
leader or defend team classsification). Otherwise you ride at whatever pace
feels comfortable (or gets you within time limits) and save energy,
especially if you're looking to win the KOM which requires all day
breakaways using lots of energy.

Look at most good climbers, when they aren't trying to compete for GC they
produce poor results on time trials in stage races, suddenly when they are
in contention they place top 20.

Peter

Mark Janeba wrote:
Morten Reippuert Knudsen wrote:

Fourtunately T.De Roy, R.Sørensen and E.Breukink managed to persuaded
M.Rasmussen to follow Armstrong today, witch means we can set the
podium in Paris:

1 L.Armstrong
2 M.Rasmussen :-)
3 ?

I.Basso, L.Leipheimer and P.Macepo will fight for 3rd spot.

Rasmussen had great rides today and Sunday, but I'm not so sure about
his being able to hold second place.

He'l only need 2-3 minutes more on Basso, Ulrich and Leipheimer in
order to succeed. I expect him to get that.

Here is some data from his recent Tour ITT's:

Last year: 2004 Tour de France

Stage 19 ITT 55km
Rasmussen started the day 13th in GC, 20:20 back
Results:
Rasmussen 6:56 behind winner Armstrong
4:06 behind Basso
2:50 behind Leipheimer
4:31 behind Landis
5:55 behind Ullrich

Currently, Rasmussen is:
0:38 behind Armstrong
2:02 ahead of Basso
2:38 ahead of Valverde
3:20 ahead of Leipheimer
3:38 ahead of Landis
3:24 ahead of Ullrich

and

3:22 ahead of P.Mancepo

In this equation M.Rasmussen needs to gain the following until the TT

-2:04 to I.Basso
+0:40 to Leipheimer
-0:53 to Landis
-2:31 to Ulrich

That's abeslutely posible (note that i think Leipheimer will do a lot
better this year, and that Ladis is not a real contender). Do you have
the numbers for P.Macepo's 55km TT last year?

I don't count last years 19km TDF uphill TT, because M.Rasmusse threw
it away. In 2004's Dauphine Libere M.Rasmussen did a reasonable TT up
Mont Ventoux. He was less than 2 minutes behind L.Armstrong and didn't
go 100%.
(Actually i expected M.Rasmussen to win last years 19km uphill TT, but
instead he chose to throw it away in order to maintain his freshness
the following day - besides he rode all last year's TDF with a virus)

If (!) Rasmussen can gain time on rivals again at Ax-3 Domaines and
St-Lary Soulan (remaining mtn top finishes) like he did today, AND not
lose time on other stages, AND time trial as he did last year, Basso
will get him at the ITT, but he beats Leipheimer, Landis, and Ullrich.

So: can Rasmussen gain time as today on the mtn top finishes, hold his
own in all other stages, and TT as well as last year? One year more
experience and a podium place to defend argue in his favor. I would
think he would reach the final TT more tired this year, though.

Any other results to compare this year to last for Rasmussen?

No, M.Rasmussen has raced even less than L.Armstrong in 2005, but i
expect him to gain time on every one in the race until the TT, however
he won't gain enough time on Armstrong to survive the TT.
M.Rasmussen wil ride a redicously bad TT, but not any worse than last
year witch means less than 7 minutes to Armstrong, and less than 6
minuttes to Ulrich. Last year M.Rasmussen didn't care about GC - his
only goal at the last TT that year was to stay within the timelimit.

A.Valverde isn't a contender, this is his first tour and he will have
bad day + use energy to help P.Mancepo.
P.Mancepo does a reasonable TT and he's the rider who's gonna be
closest to Rasmussen and Armstrong in the mountains - witch is why i
think he will be among the 3, who will be fighting for 3rd in Paris.

I.Basso will be the 2nd closest rider to M.R and L.A, but he will also
lose time until the TT. His currently closer to M.R/L.A and he's a
better TT'er than Mancepo, but in Paris M.R will be to far ahead for
basso to reach 2nd. - He will be among the 3 fighting for 3rd in Paris.

Leipheimer will loose aproximatly the same time as Basso until the TT,
but is a better TT'er, but not good enough to reach 2nd spot. He'll
fight for 3rd with P.Mancepo and I.Basso.

The T-Mobile & Phonak riders will keep loosing time every single day
until the TT. Currently Ulrich is closest at 3.24 behind M.R and the
gap will grow to +7. By then 2nd and even 3rd will be out of reach.
J.Jaksche, C.Evans, A.Kashechkin, B.Julich, C.Sastre and A.Valverde
will fight for 6-10th with T-Mobile and Phonak.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) http://blog.reippuert.dk

PowerMac G5: 1.6GHz, 1.25GB RAM, 300+300GB SATA, 8xDVD+/-RW, Bluetooth
mus + tastatur, R9600PRO, iSight, eyeTV200 & LaCie Photon18Vision TFT

On Tue, 12 Jul 2005 23:33:52 +0200, Morten Reippuert Knudsen wrote:
P.Mancepo [...] P.Macepo [...] P.Mancepo [...] P.Mancepo

Paco Mancebo

--
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"Morten Reippuert Knudsen" wrote

Currently, Rasmussen is:
0:38 behind Armstrong
2:02 ahead of Basso
2:38 ahead of Valverde
3:20 ahead of Leipheimer
3:38 ahead of Landis
3:24 ahead of Ullrich

and

3:22 ahead of P.Mancepo

In this equation M.Rasmussen needs to gain the following until the TT

let's ee if that equation will work with tomorrow's results.

That's abeslutely posible (note that i think Leipheimer will do a lot
better this year, and that Ladis is not a real contender). Do you have
the numbers for P.Macepo's 55km TT last year?

i have the feeling you're danish

If (!) Rasmussen can gain time on rivals again at Ax-3 Domaines and
St-Lary Soulan (remaining mtn top finishes) like he did today, AND not
lose time on other stages, AND time trial as he did last year, Basso
will get him at the ITT, but he beats Leipheimer, Landis, and Ullrich.

what if...if only if...

I.Basso will be the 2nd closest rider to M.R and L.A, but he will also
lose time until the TT. His currently closer to M.R/L.A and he's a
better TT'er than Mancepo, but in Paris M.R will be to far ahead for
basso to reach 2nd. - He will be among the 3 fighting for 3rd in Paris.

aha...yep...ok...

anyway, you have the right to dream.
bonne nuit

Morten Reippuert Knudsen wrote:

Mark Janeba wrote:

Morten Reippuert Knudsen wrote:


Fourtunately T.De Roy, R.Sørensen and E.Breukink managed to persuaded
M.Rasmussen to follow Armstrong today, witch means we can set the
podium in Paris:

1 L.Armstrong
2 M.Rasmussen :-)
3 ?

I.Basso, L.Leipheimer and P.Macepo will fight for 3rd spot.


Rasmussen had great rides today and Sunday, but I'm not so sure about
his being able to hold second place.


He'l only need 2-3 minutes more on Basso, Ulrich and Leipheimer in
order to succeed. I expect him to get that.


Here is some data from his recent Tour ITT's:


Last year: 2004 Tour de France


Stage 19 ITT 55km
Rasmussen started the day 13th in GC, 20:20 back
Results:
Rasmussen 6:56 behind winner Armstrong
4:06 behind Basso
2:50 behind Leipheimer
4:31 behind Landis
5:55 behind Ullrich


Currently, Rasmussen is:
0:38 behind Armstrong
2:02 ahead of Basso
2:38 ahead of Valverde
3:20 ahead of Leipheimer
3:38 ahead of Landis
3:24 ahead of Ullrich


and

3:22 ahead of P.Mancepo

In this equation M.Rasmussen needs to gain the following until the TT

-2:04 to I.Basso
+0:40 to Leipheimer
-0:53 to Landis
-2:31 to Ulrich

That's abeslutely posible (note that i think Leipheimer will do a lot
better this year, and that Ladis is not a real contender). Do you have
the numbers for P.Macepo's 55km TT last year?

All at:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/04index.php

2004 TdF 55k TT
Rasmussen 6:56 behind winner Armstrong
Mancebo 6:35 behind Armstrong, so only 21 seconds ahead of Rasmussen.

Just remember, there's a lot of stages between now and the final TT.

Mark