In praise of Brooks saddles

On 12/15/2019 4:27 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 15 Dec 2019 10:01:26 -0600, AMuzi wrote:

On 12/14/2019 4:42 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:30:11 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:00:24 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US does not have the luxury of Chapter 11.

Stick to the law, Jay. You don't know **** about economics either, or realpolitik. If Donald Trump were to wake up in the morning with a sore head (everyone should consider themselves lucky that he's a teetotaller -- heh-heh) and announce that the US were repudiating all her foreign debts, everyone else except the US would hurt. (Here's a hint: he wouldn't put it like that, he'd announce the US was changing over to the Coyote Standard or some such.) And they'd immediately start buying US Treasury Bonds again, because they have too much stake in the US economy to let it slow or go under. And if they were slow, Trump would only have to hint that he was nationalising their US assets at nightfall for them to see the sense and logic of his position.

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what? If the US defaulted on all its debt, the economic system in the US as we know it would fail for a variety of reasons. The government lights would go off, and TK's Social Security welfare would be done. I'm not even talking about the foreign held debt or the world-wide effect of the collapse of our currency, although the failure of our currency would lead to massive inflation.

This is all imaginary since the US cannot constitutionally default on its debt (and redemption is by maturity date anyway, so the US would not default all at once). Taxes would have to be raised to meet obligations; the US would sell naming rights to the Washington Monument to Huawei. It would be the biggest fire sale in history. Massive, massive inflation.

Moving past the imaginary default Armageddon, the reality is that cutting tax revenues and rampant deficit spending just means inflation, higher borrowing costs, higher taxes -- basically another recession for the administration that gets stuck with the tab, regardless of party, although usually Democrat.

Ande Jute
If you owe the bank a thousand dollars you can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank a hundred million dollars you *won't* pay, the bank is n trouble.

Not with collateralized debt or when the borrower is constitutionally obligated to repay the debt. In the real world, a bank would manage the risk with credit default swaps, credit insurance, etc., etc. Banks are not stupid, usually.

-- Jay Beattie.


My intuitions are along the same lines as you but
macroeconomics can seem to defy rational analysis (the
'experts' are wrong as often as right). 14 months ago I
bought T-bills, but right now US debt is so dirt cheap it's
pointless. Meanwhile US Dollar continues very strong and,
whether because of DJT or not, Chinese Yuan is tanking.
Chinese corporate bonds have gone to default over the past
few months and this week the first Chinese GSE bonds missed
payments. From first principles, we _should_ be crying
Argentina's song. But no.

Is the Chinese Yuan "tanking" My records show that the Yuan is
stronger (yesterday) than it has been since August?
However, my exchange rate site lists two currencies for China am
Offshore rate, which I have been using, and a second rate that is
very slightly lower against the dollar.
--
cheers,

John B.


Here's a five-year of that:

https://tinyurl.com/vgo4n4g

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 12/15/2019 5:15 PM, Andre Jute wrote:
On Sunday, December 15, 2019 at 4:01:40 PM UTC, AMuzi wrote:
On 12/14/2019 4:42 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:30:11 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:00:24 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US does not have the luxury of Chapter 11.

Stick to the law, Jay. You don't know **** about economics either, or realpolitik. If Donald Trump were to wake up in the morning with a sore head (everyone should consider themselves lucky that he's a teetotaller -- heh-heh) and announce that the US were repudiating all her foreign debts, everyone else except the US would hurt. (Here's a hint: he wouldn't put it like that, he'd announce the US was changing over to the Coyote Standard or some such.) And they'd immediately start buying US Treasury Bonds again, because they have too much stake in the US economy to let it slow or go under. And if they were slow, Trump would only have to hint that he was nationalising their US assets at nightfall for them to see the sense and logic of his position.

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what? If the US defaulted on all its debt, the economic system in the US as we know it would fail for a variety of reasons. The government lights would go off, and TK's Social Security welfare would be done. I'm not even talking about the foreign held debt or the world-wide effect of the collapse of our currency, although the failure of our currency would lead to massive inflation.

This is all imaginary since the US cannot constitutionally default on its debt (and redemption is by maturity date anyway, so the US would not default all at once). Taxes would have to be raised to meet obligations; the US would sell naming rights to the Washington Monument to Huawei. It would be the biggest fire sale in history. Massive, massive inflation.

Moving past the imaginary default Armageddon, the reality is that cutting tax revenues and rampant deficit spending just means inflation, higher borrowing costs, higher taxes -- basically another recession for the administration that gets stuck with the tab, regardless of party, although usually Democrat.

Ande Jute
If you owe the bank a thousand dollars you can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank a hundred million dollars you *won't* pay, the bank is n trouble.

Not with collateralized debt or when the borrower is constitutionally obligated to repay the debt. In the real world, a bank would manage the risk with credit default swaps, credit insurance, etc., etc. Banks are not stupid, usually.

-- Jay Beattie.


My intuitions are along the same lines as you but
macroeconomics can seem to defy rational analysis (the
'experts' are wrong as often as right). 14 months ago I
bought T-bills, but right now US debt is so dirt cheap it's
pointless. Meanwhile US Dollar continues very strong and,
whether because of DJT or not, Chinese Yuan is tanking.
Chinese corporate bonds have gone to default over the past
few months and this week the first Chinese GSE bonds missed
payments. From first principles, we _should_ be crying
Argentina's song. But no.


If you think of macro as quantum economics, you'll never be disappointed. -- AJ


In the financial, commodities and currency trading worlds,
the phrase goes, "Everything is fine. Until it is not."

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Sunday, December 15, 2019 at 8:01:40 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
On 12/14/2019 4:42 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:30:11 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:00:24 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US does not have the luxury of Chapter 11.

Stick to the law, Jay. You don't know **** about economics either, or realpolitik. If Donald Trump were to wake up in the morning with a sore head (everyone should consider themselves lucky that he's a teetotaller -- heh-heh) and announce that the US were repudiating all her foreign debts, everyone else except the US would hurt. (Here's a hint: he wouldn't put it like that, he'd announce the US was changing over to the Coyote Standard or some such.) And they'd immediately start buying US Treasury Bonds again, because they have too much stake in the US economy to let it slow or go under. And if they were slow, Trump would only have to hint that he was nationalising their US assets at nightfall for them to see the sense and logic of his position.

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what? If the US defaulted on all its debt, the economic system in the US as we know it would fail for a variety of reasons. The government lights would go off, and TK's Social Security welfare would be done. I'm not even talking about the foreign held debt or the world-wide effect of the collapse of our currency, although the failure of our currency would lead to massive inflation.

This is all imaginary since the US cannot constitutionally default on its debt (and redemption is by maturity date anyway, so the US would not default all at once). Taxes would have to be raised to meet obligations; the US would sell naming rights to the Washington Monument to Huawei. It would be the biggest fire sale in history. Massive, massive inflation.

Moving past the imaginary default Armageddon, the reality is that cutting tax revenues and rampant deficit spending just means inflation, higher borrowing costs, higher taxes -- basically another recession for the administration that gets stuck with the tab, regardless of party, although usually Democrat.

Ande Jute
If you owe the bank a thousand dollars you can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank a hundred million dollars you *won't* pay, the bank is n trouble.

Not with collateralized debt or when the borrower is constitutionally obligated to repay the debt. In the real world, a bank would manage the risk with credit default swaps, credit insurance, etc., etc. Banks are not stupid, usually.

-- Jay Beattie.


My intuitions are along the same lines as you but
macroeconomics can seem to defy rational analysis (the
'experts' are wrong as often as right). 14 months ago I
bought T-bills, but right now US debt is so dirt cheap it's
pointless. Meanwhile US Dollar continues very strong and,
whether because of DJT or not, Chinese Yuan is tanking.
Chinese corporate bonds have gone to default over the past
few months and this week the first Chinese GSE bonds missed
payments. From first principles, we _should_ be crying
Argentina's song. But no.


I could see some delayed redemptions or delayed interest payments, but I'm not seriously proposing that US will default on a significant portion of its national debt. But even minor defaults will have microeconomic effects on bond holders and markets. Unchecked debt is a bad thing, or at least it used to be. Somebody is going to be paying the bill.

Don't you think the Yuan is being manipulated -- double duty driving down the cost of Chinese goods and driving up the cost of US goods? Nice tariff hedge. Probably a good time for a Chinese vacation! Get some benefit out of the trade war.

-- Jay Beattie.

On 12/15/2019 5:46 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Sunday, December 15, 2019 at 8:01:40 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
On 12/14/2019 4:42 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:30:11 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:00:24 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US does not have the luxury of Chapter 11.

Stick to the law, Jay. You don't know **** about economics either, or realpolitik. If Donald Trump were to wake up in the morning with a sore head (everyone should consider themselves lucky that he's a teetotaller -- heh-heh) and announce that the US were repudiating all her foreign debts, everyone else except the US would hurt. (Here's a hint: he wouldn't put it like that, he'd announce the US was changing over to the Coyote Standard or some such.) And they'd immediately start buying US Treasury Bonds again, because they have too much stake in the US economy to let it slow or go under. And if they were slow, Trump would only have to hint that he was nationalising their US assets at nightfall for them to see the sense and logic of his position.

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what? If the US defaulted on all its debt, the economic system in the US as we know it would fail for a variety of reasons. The government lights would go off, and TK's Social Security welfare would be done. I'm not even talking about the foreign held debt or the world-wide effect of the collapse of our currency, although the failure of our currency would lead to massive inflation.

This is all imaginary since the US cannot constitutionally default on its debt (and redemption is by maturity date anyway, so the US would not default all at once). Taxes would have to be raised to meet obligations; the US would sell naming rights to the Washington Monument to Huawei. It would be the biggest fire sale in history. Massive, massive inflation.

Moving past the imaginary default Armageddon, the reality is that cutting tax revenues and rampant deficit spending just means inflation, higher borrowing costs, higher taxes -- basically another recession for the administration that gets stuck with the tab, regardless of party, although usually Democrat.

Ande Jute
If you owe the bank a thousand dollars you can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank a hundred million dollars you *won't* pay, the bank is n trouble.

Not with collateralized debt or when the borrower is constitutionally obligated to repay the debt. In the real world, a bank would manage the risk with credit default swaps, credit insurance, etc., etc. Banks are not stupid, usually.

-- Jay Beattie.


My intuitions are along the same lines as you but
macroeconomics can seem to defy rational analysis (the
'experts' are wrong as often as right). 14 months ago I
bought T-bills, but right now US debt is so dirt cheap it's
pointless. Meanwhile US Dollar continues very strong and,
whether because of DJT or not, Chinese Yuan is tanking.
Chinese corporate bonds have gone to default over the past
few months and this week the first Chinese GSE bonds missed
payments. From first principles, we _should_ be crying
Argentina's song. But no.


I could see some delayed redemptions or delayed interest payments, but I'm not seriously proposing that US will default on a significant portion of its national debt. But even minor defaults will have microeconomic effects on bond holders and markets. Unchecked debt is a bad thing, or at least it used to be. Somebody is going to be paying the bill.

Don't you think the Yuan is being manipulated -- double duty driving down the cost of Chinese goods and driving up the cost of US goods? Nice tariff hedge. Probably a good time for a Chinese vacation! Get some benefit out of the trade war.

-- Jay Beattie.


Good question, one that smarter heads than I have posed for
years with no evidence either way. If it is on purpose, it
makes dollar payments more painful.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Sun, 15 Dec 2019 18:06:36 -0600, AMuzi wrote:

On 12/15/2019 5:46 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Sunday, December 15, 2019 at 8:01:40 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
On 12/14/2019 4:42 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:30:11 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:00:24 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US does not have the luxury of Chapter 11.

Stick to the law, Jay. You don't know **** about economics either, or realpolitik. If Donald Trump were to wake up in the morning with a sore head (everyone should consider themselves lucky that he's a teetotaller -- heh-heh) and announce that the US were repudiating all her foreign debts, everyone else except the US would hurt. (Here's a hint: he wouldn't put it like that, he'd announce the US was changing over to the Coyote Standard or some such.) And they'd immediately start buying US Treasury Bonds again, because they have too much stake in the US economy to let it slow or go under. And if they were slow, Trump would only have to hint that he was nationalising their US assets at nightfall for them to see the sense and logic of his position.

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what? If the US defaulted on all its debt, the economic system in the US as we know it would fail for a variety of reasons. The government lights would go off, and TK's Social Security welfare would be done. I'm not even talking about the foreign held debt or the world-wide effect of the collapse of our currency, although the failure of our currency would lead to massive inflation.

This is all imaginary since the US cannot constitutionally default on its debt (and redemption is by maturity date anyway, so the US would not default all at once). Taxes would have to be raised to meet obligations; the US would sell naming rights to the Washington Monument to Huawei. It would be the biggest fire sale in history. Massive, massive inflation.

Moving past the imaginary default Armageddon, the reality is that cutting tax revenues and rampant deficit spending just means inflation, higher borrowing costs, higher taxes -- basically another recession for the administration that gets stuck with the tab, regardless of party, although usually Democrat.

Ande Jute
If you owe the bank a thousand dollars you can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank a hundred million dollars you *won't* pay, the bank is n trouble.

Not with collateralized debt or when the borrower is constitutionally obligated to repay the debt. In the real world, a bank would manage the risk with credit default swaps, credit insurance, etc., etc. Banks are not stupid, usually.

-- Jay Beattie.


My intuitions are along the same lines as you but
macroeconomics can seem to defy rational analysis (the
'experts' are wrong as often as right). 14 months ago I
bought T-bills, but right now US debt is so dirt cheap it's
pointless. Meanwhile US Dollar continues very strong and,
whether because of DJT or not, Chinese Yuan is tanking.
Chinese corporate bonds have gone to default over the past
few months and this week the first Chinese GSE bonds missed
payments. From first principles, we _should_ be crying
Argentina's song. But no.


I could see some delayed redemptions or delayed interest payments, but I'm not seriously proposing that US will default on a significant portion of its national debt. But even minor defaults will have microeconomic effects on bond holders and markets. Unchecked debt is a bad thing, or at least it used to be. Somebody is going to be paying the bill.

Don't you think the Yuan is being manipulated -- double duty driving down the cost of Chinese goods and driving up the cost of US goods? Nice tariff hedge. Probably a good time for a Chinese vacation! Get some benefit out of the trade war.

-- Jay Beattie.


Good question, one that smarter heads than I have posed for
years with no evidence either way. If it is on purpose, it
makes dollar payments more painful.

Re currency manipulation. I suggest that many, perhaps most, countries
do this at least to some extent.

Indonesia deliberately depreciated the value of their currency
vis-a-vis foreign currency for years largely in order to reduce the
effective payments on loans. Thailand, at the moment, is desperately
trying - with little effect - to devaluate their currency in order to
bolster their trade.
The U.S., in effect, does this every time they change the prime rate.
Way back in post WW II days the U.S. manipulated the Japanese Yen to
dollar rate.
--
cheers,

John B.

On Sun, 15 Dec 2019 17:29:50 -0600, AMuzi wrote:

On 12/15/2019 4:27 PM, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 15 Dec 2019 10:01:26 -0600, AMuzi wrote:

On 12/14/2019 4:42 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:30:11 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:00:24 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US does not have the luxury of Chapter 11.

Stick to the law, Jay. You don't know **** about economics either, or realpolitik. If Donald Trump were to wake up in the morning with a sore head (everyone should consider themselves lucky that he's a teetotaller -- heh-heh) and announce that the US were repudiating all her foreign debts, everyone else except the US would hurt. (Here's a hint: he wouldn't put it like that, he'd announce the US was changing over to the Coyote Standard or some such.) And they'd immediately start buying US Treasury Bonds again, because they have too much stake in the US economy to let it slow or go under. And if they were slow, Trump would only have to hint that he was nationalising their US assets at nightfall for them to see the sense and logic of his position.

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what? If the US defaulted on all its debt, the economic system in the US as we know it would fail for a variety of reasons. The government lights would go off, and TK's Social Security welfare would be done. I'm not even talking about the foreign held debt or the world-wide effect of the collapse of our currency, although the failure of our currency would lead to massive inflation.

This is all imaginary since the US cannot constitutionally default on its debt (and redemption is by maturity date anyway, so the US would not default all at once). Taxes would have to be raised to meet obligations; the US would sell naming rights to the Washington Monument to Huawei. It would be the biggest fire sale in history. Massive, massive inflation.

Moving past the imaginary default Armageddon, the reality is that cutting tax revenues and rampant deficit spending just means inflation, higher borrowing costs, higher taxes -- basically another recession for the administration that gets stuck with the tab, regardless of party, although usually Democrat.

Ande Jute
If you owe the bank a thousand dollars you can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank a hundred million dollars you *won't* pay, the bank is n trouble.

Not with collateralized debt or when the borrower is constitutionally obligated to repay the debt. In the real world, a bank would manage the risk with credit default swaps, credit insurance, etc., etc. Banks are not stupid, usually.

-- Jay Beattie.


My intuitions are along the same lines as you but
macroeconomics can seem to defy rational analysis (the
'experts' are wrong as often as right). 14 months ago I
bought T-bills, but right now US debt is so dirt cheap it's
pointless. Meanwhile US Dollar continues very strong and,
whether because of DJT or not, Chinese Yuan is tanking.
Chinese corporate bonds have gone to default over the past
few months and this week the first Chinese GSE bonds missed
payments. From first principles, we _should_ be crying
Argentina's song. But no.

Is the Chinese Yuan "tanking" My records show that the Yuan is
stronger (yesterday) than it has been since August?
However, my exchange rate site lists two currencies for China am
Offshore rate, which I have been using, and a second rate that is
very slightly lower against the dollar.
--
cheers,

John B.


Here's a five-year of that:

https://tinyurl.com/vgo4n4g

If your chart went a bit further you would see that since August 2019
the yuan as been on the up-swing (as I said :-). As of Saturday the
yuan was at 6.99 to the dollar.This morning it is 6.94.

I'm not sure whether it is indicative but the baht is at 30.11 to the
dollar, the highest it has been since I started keeping track about 5
years ago.
--
cheers,

John B.

On Sat, 14 Dec 2019 15:08:04 -0800 (PST), jbeattie
wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:35:46 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:17:36 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US has no VAT,

Crap. What do you think VAT is? It's a sales tax, same as State sales
taxes in the US.

Crap, we have no federal sales tax. We have federal excise taxes on
certain goods, e.g. gas, alcohol. State sales tax vary. There is no
sales tax in Oregon.

And VAT is different in structure from sales tax:

https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/blog/...s-tax-and-vat/

On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 10:34:49 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:

Party positions have changed a lot.

Indeed, but that is not new. It has happened before and will happen
again.

Indeed, the Trump realignment of the Republican Party may end up being a
huge shift in the political landscape that leaves actual conservatives
and moderates without a political home other than the Libertarians. The
reactionary lurch to the left of the Democrats may do the same for
centrists/moderate liberals.

I suspect that the party powers that be among the GOP are hoping to
weather the Trumpian ****storm and reassert themselves after he is out
of office. It will take decades to repair the damage to both party and
country. I could see the two party system fracturing into three or four.

On Monday, December 16, 2019 at 4:43:41 AM UTC, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Sat, 14 Dec 2019 15:08:04 -0800 (PST), jbeattie
wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:35:46 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:17:36 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US has no VAT,

Crap. What do you think VAT is? It's a sales tax, same as State sales
taxes in the US.

Crap, we have no federal sales tax. We have federal excise taxes on
certain goods, e.g. gas, alcohol. State sales tax vary. There is no
sales tax in Oregon.

And VAT is different in structure from sales tax:

https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/blog/...s-tax-and-vat/

You and the babblers in your link are mistaken. The end result is exactly the same. The only person who in this system can (but does not necessarily) be out of the total VAT/sales tax in both cases is the end-consumer. What that screed you linked to overlooked telling you is that everyone in the VAT chain except the end-consumer, can get their VAT back, and in fact never pays it (an outright error in that "explanation") but merely accounts for VAT in and VAT out. Full disclosu if there is a difference between the VAT they paid to suppliers of raw material etc and the VAT they received from the next party in the chain, that is their sales tax on their product. It is because of this incremental process that it is called a Value Added Tax, but it is merely a sales tax with bigger wings than in the States to cover all producers and sellers in the chain. My old teacher invented the modern form of the traditional French input-output table on which all this is based.

Andre Jute
It ain't rocket science

On Sunday, December 15, 2019 at 11:46:48 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

Don't you think the Yuan is being manipulated

Of course it is. Andrew's table tells you as much in the pair of words, "Offshore yuan". All currencies are fettled, of course, but the Chinese are out of the dinosaur age as money managers, which is why they need two currencies even if both have the same name. One of those currencies is being kept artificially high, and one artificially low, because the Chinese leaders don't fancy swinging from lampposts by their adam's apples while hungry peasants tickle they feet with pitchforks. I don't think most people grasp how precariously China is balanced between world dominance and catastrophic collapse. First of all, the Chinese, in their usual obsessive manner, made themselves into the most successful ZPG population controllers with their one-child policy, which basically left them a crazy imbalance of men and women, with millions of young men good for nothing except being cannon-fodder. China's population is consequently ageing at a much faster rate than even Europe's population and in a timespan that to Chinese eyes will be the blink of an eye, China will have a population inversion, what demographers call low-low fertility, in which they are not replacing themselves, and then the population starts shrinking. (Leftists shouldn't call themselves progressives -- they're always three moves behind the ball, never more so than in their enthusiasm for Malthus where even in the 1960s the smarter demographers were already forecasting a population slow-down and reversal.) The chief thug in Beijing has very few years to lift his population, a significant proportion of which is hungry every day of their lives, out of poverty, before the facts of population age-distribution catches up with China's rulers. That is why the Chinese are so urgently expanding, because they know a point X is approaching where they must either be a dominant power (and that basically means a three-ocean power, which also answers another question asked earlier on the board, about why the US needs so many aircraft carriers -- the US must be an n+1 ocean power) or they will have to swallow their pride and probably a lot outright military **** from nations on their borders and further afield that they've bullied for too long. I can easily see China being split in two parts, one a province of India, the other a province of Taiwan. They'll be ripe, sooner than most analysts expect, for a bit of Reaganite escalation, say in battle fleets, that they can't afford -- a game of poker precisely like the one that broke up the Soviet Union.

-- double duty driving down the cost of Chinese goods and driving up the cost of US goods?

Are you going to explain to us how that works, Jay, or are you asking us to take your analysis on faith? I for one like things clearly explained.

Nice tariff hedge. Probably a good time for a Chinese vacation! Get some benefit out of the trade war.

-- Jay Beattie.

Real loyal American, you are. -- (sgnd) Yoda

Andre Jute