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  #1  
Old July 20th 07, 12:44 AM posted to rec.bicycles.racing
Paul Cassel
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Posts: 264
Default Newcomer question

Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing.

I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on
Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point
based on historical efforts?

Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been
overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone
with a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the
overall winner?
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  #2  
Old July 20th 07, 04:14 AM posted to rec.bicycles.racing
Tom Kunich
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Posts: 6,456
Default Newcomer question

"Paul Cassel" wrote in message
. ..
Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing.

I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on
Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point based
on historical efforts?

Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been
overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone with
a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the overall
winner?


Against Valverde a couple of minutes is the most that God could make up
unless there's something major bad happening to him.


  #3  
Old July 20th 07, 04:50 AM posted to rec.bicycles.racing
bob sullivan
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Posts: 165
Default Newcomer question

Tom Kunich wrote:
"Paul Cassel" wrote in message
. ..
Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing.

I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on
Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point based
on historical efforts?

Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been
overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone with
a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the overall
winner?


Against Valverde a couple of minutes is the most that God could make up
unless there's something major bad happening to him.


Valverde has to prove that he can *finish* the Tour to win, which he
has yet to do. I hope he does, because it would be a shame to have
yet another year of pundits talking about his 'unfulfilled potential'.

~bob s.
  #4  
Old July 20th 07, 05:16 AM posted to rec.bicycles.racing
DirtRoadie
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Posts: 2,915
Default Newcomer question

On Jul 19, 5:44 pm, Paul Cassel
wrote:
Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing.

I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on
Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point
based on historical efforts?

Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been
overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone
with a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the
overall winner?


The actual time deficit is significant but is not the only factor.
There was a fellow named Pereiro who last year recovered just about .5
hour in a single stage (13) and ended up second (maybe even first)
overall, mostly because nobody was paying attention to him.

See http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006...sults/tour0613
So yes, it's possible, but not common.

DR

  #5  
Old July 20th 07, 08:53 AM posted to rec.bicycles.racing
Simon Brooke
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Posts: 4,493
Default Newcomer question

in message , Paul Cassel
') wrote:

Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing.

I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on
Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point
based on historical efforts?

Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been
overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone
with a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the
overall winner?


Very occasionally, very strong riders have got away in long breaks. It is
possible for a rider to make up a half hour deficit, but it isn't very
likely, and in any case Hincapie isn't the quality of rider to do it.
Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes
back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more
dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling along
in yellow.

However, the other side to getting away in a long break is that if the
peloton sees you as a danger man you won't be allowed to go. Super
climbers can make a break succeed on a hard mountain stage even with the
peloton against them, because if you can get over a col with a reasonable
gap you can sometimes stay away on the descent (particularly if you have
three or four guys with you). Anyone else will only get into a successful
break, fundamentally, if they're permitted to.

--
(Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

Morning had broken. I found a rather battered tube of Araldite
resin in the bottom of the toolbag.
  #6  
Old July 21st 07, 09:03 PM posted to rec.bicycles.racing
Mark
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Posts: 359
Default Newcomer question

Simon Brooke wrote:
Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes
back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more
dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling along
in yellow.


....and far more entertaining as well! He's even more motivated than
usual to attack.

Mark J.
  #7  
Old July 21st 07, 09:26 PM posted to rec.bicycles.racing
Simon Brooke
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Posts: 4,493
Default Newcomer question

in message , Mark
') wrote:

Simon Brooke wrote:
Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes
back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more
dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling
along in yellow.


...and far more entertaining as well! He's even more motivated than
usual to attack.


Isn't he just? Expect a breakaway sometime in the next three days. Expect
him to appear to be riding /against/ Astana...

Tomorrow is going to be a great stage!

--
(Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

;; Diplomacy, American: see Intelligence, Military
  #8  
Old July 22nd 07, 05:48 AM posted to rec.bicycles.racing
Michael Press
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Posts: 9,202
Default Newcomer question

In article
,
Mark
wrote:

Simon Brooke wrote:
Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes
back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more
dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling along
in yellow.


...and far more entertaining as well! He's even more motivated than
usual to attack.


Everybody-- How motivated is he?

--
Michael Press
  #9  
Old July 22nd 07, 08:59 AM posted to rec.bicycles.racing
Morten Reippuert Knudsen
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Posts: 294
Default Newcomer question

Simon Brooke wrote:
in message , Mark
') wrote:


Simon Brooke wrote:
Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes
back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more
dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling
along in yellow.


...and far more entertaining as well! He's even more motivated than
usual to attack.


Isn't he just? Expect a breakaway sometime in the next three days. Expect
him to appear to be riding /against/ Astana...


If any Astana rider rides _against_ Vinokurov he will be pulled from the
team the following day, even Kloeden.

Tomorrow is going to be a great stage!


for shure.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) http://blog.reippuert.dk

Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.
 




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