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#731
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Invisible Cyclists in Solstice Dark
gds wrote: I find the various "appeals to authority" interesting. As well as the oposite. Frank, saying we should apply a deep discount to Robert's point because he is "just" a bike messenger lacks any measure of intellectual honesty. His arguments are good or bad irrespective of how he makes a living. And the opposite is true. Just because one has "prfessional standing" does not make their argument right or wrong- the arguemnt is independent of the presentor. The particular issue is this: who knows how to determine how many miles, or hours, are bicycles ridden in a year? That question applies for the US, and separately for Great Britain, for Germany, for France, for Australia, for Sweden, for Switzerland, for the Netherlands, etc. In each of those countries, there are people whose professions include the responsibility to do just that. It's reasonable to assume they have training in doing that, and that their work has been examined by others with interest in the results. They have determinied those values to their satisfaction, and used them to calculate things like fatalities per hour for cycling. Yes, there is acknowledged uncertainty. But _all_ the figures I've been able to find claim the risk of cycling is within the same general range - and quite low. On the other hand, we have Robert who (AFAIK) has no training in this. He simply does not believe such a thing is possible. And he feels that all the numbers that have been determined are very wrong - that cycling is actually very dangerous, despite data from the US, from Great Britain, from France, from Australia, from Sweden, from Switzerland, from the Netherlands, etc. saying otherwise. Robert's disbelief that these numbers are even possible just doesn't make sense, given that this is being done all the time, and that the figures generally agree - especially when allowing for the natural differences in cycling conditions in different countries. The recent news story about faked cloning in South Korea is a good lesson. Remember, that a nanosecond before the story broke the researcher in question was considered a luminary in the field. Here's why that situation is not parallel: He was one researcher, one expert in that field. What he supposedly discovered was far different than what anyone else had done. And in relatively short order, another expert in that field (a colleague, actually) noted and warned of his "mistake" or wrongdoing. If we had other expert researchers in seven other countries who had independently validated his techniques, it's highly unlikely that _all_ would be found to be fake. That's one of the main checks that's built into science. In our little issue, we do have researchers in many countries who are effectively validating the idea that cycling is safe. They are all finding fatality rates down around one per million hours or lower. And the protests are not coming from other researchers. They are coming from one bike messenger with no training in the field. I don't know exactly what your field is, gds. But in mine, I've had unschooled amateurs come forward with radical ideas and ask for my endorsement, or that of my colleagues. In at least one case I know, they succeeded in getting big money out of a few investors. But the experts said they were wrong. And the investors lost all they'd bet. I am not suggesting any fraud in any of the studies quoted. But I am pointing out that degrees and job titles - or their absence- is not what makes findings valid. Right. Instead, it's corroboration. Which is, broadly speaking, what we've got. Attack the argument not the person. OK. Robert's probably a nice guy and a good bike messenger. But his inability to understand transportation surveys doesn't invalidate those surveys. - Frank Krygowski |
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#732
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Invisible Cyclists in Solstice Dark
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#734
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Invisible Cyclists in Solstice Dark
wrote:
Sorni wrote: wrote: gds wrote: OK but how does that effect your personal helmet wearing behavor? I used to wear one almost all the time. Now I rarely wear one. I've literally never come close to needing it. Only takes once. Yep. It only takes once tripping while going down a set of stairs, too. But I'm still not going to wear it. How about you, Bill? If I went up & down stairs at 30-40 mph for 20, 30, or 60 miles in the vicinity of even-faster-moving two-ton machines? Definitely! Can't help notice you deleted the examples of OTHER things people "never come close to needing", Frank. Bill "got fire insurance?" S. |
#735
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Invisible Cyclists in Solstice Dark
Sorni wrote: wrote: Sorni wrote: Only takes once. Yep. It only takes once tripping while going down a set of stairs, too. But I'm still not going to wear it. How about you, Bill? If I went up & down stairs at 30-40 mph for 20, 30, or 60 miles in the vicinity of even-faster-moving two-ton machines? Definitely! Oh. Is the risk of serious head injury greater on a bike than on stairs? And are you _sure_? If so, I'd love to see your evidence. Can't help notice you deleted the examples of OTHER things people "never come close to needing", Frank. Bill "got fire insurance?" S. I deleted what I thought were bad analogies, Bill. For one thing, fire insurance seems to be fairly effective at paying for fire damage. From what I've been able to determine, bike helmets are NOT effective at preventing serious head injuries. (Yes, I know you must disagree, but I doubt you've studied this as much as I have.) BTW, got a St. Christopher's medal? Never know when you might need it! ;-) - Frank Krygowski |
#736
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Invisible Cyclists in Solstice Dark
Sorni wrote:
Can't help notice you deleted the examples of OTHER things people "never come close to needing", Frank. Bill "got fire insurance?" S. When the world revolves around only you, what other people need doesn't matter. |
#737
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Invisible Cyclists in Solstice Dark
wrote:
Sorni wrote: wrote: Sorni wrote: Only takes once. Yep. It only takes once tripping while going down a set of stairs, too. But I'm still not going to wear it. How about you, Bill? If I went up & down stairs at 30-40 mph for 20, 30, or 60 miles in the vicinity of even-faster-moving two-ton machines? Definitely! Oh. Is the risk of serious head injury greater on a bike than on stairs? If stairs have potholes, pebbles, thorns, sewer grates, flinging doors, etc etc etc, then you might just have a point! And are you _sure_? If so, I'd love to see your evidence. Some things are /evident/ without stats, Frank. Can't help notice you deleted the examples of OTHER things people "never come close to needing", Frank. Bill "got fire insurance?" S. I deleted what I thought were bad analogies, Bill. For one thing, fire insurance seems to be fairly effective at paying for fire damage. From what I've been able to determine, bike helmets are NOT effective at preventing serious head injuries. (Yes, I know you must disagree, but I doubt you've studied this as much as I have.) Oooh. /Studied/. Gotcha. BTW, got a St. Christopher's medal? Never know when you might need it! ;-) I thought you didn't care for bad analogies. ;-) Bill "this is what I get for reading a rare isolated post in a helmet thread (otherwise ignored)" S. |
#738
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Invisible Cyclists in Solstice Dark
Sorni wrote: wrote: (Yes, I know you must disagree, but I doubt you've studied this as much as I have.) Oooh. /Studied/. Gotcha. Yes. It's how one learns. Details on request. - Frank Krygowski |
#739
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Invisible Cyclists in Solstice Dark
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#740
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Invisible Cyclists in Solstice Dark
Sorni wrote:
Only takes once. (Same goes for seat belts, catastrophic health insurance, birth control, fire insurance, etc etc etc etc...) ....air accident, train wreck, car crash, fall down stairs, choking on food etc etc etc etc. -- Tony "The best way I know of to win an argument is to start by being in the right." - Lord Hailsham |
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