State your opinion on COVID-19

On 5/1/2020 2:22 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/1/2020 2:19 PM, AMuzi wrote:

A month after the President closed travel from China (and
then went further to restrict travel from Europe and
repatriate US citizens from overseas to quarantine here)
the experts were saying 'Americans need not worry'.

Please. Trump didn't "close travel from China." It's much
more accurate to say he stopped Chinese from coming to
America. Tens of thousands still traveled after that
supposed closure.
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/th...-restrictions/


And please don't paint "the experts" as a crowd marching in
lockstep saying this virus was no problem for Americans. The
majority of the administration's advisors, doubtlessly
including Fauci and Birx, were taking this very seriously.

In March the same experts were saying '1~2 million dead
USAians'. which wasn't quite right either. Then the
experts said '4~5% death rate' which also turned out to be
magnitudes off the actual numbers.

It would help if you gave citations, and tell us exactly
which experts you're quoting. As I read it, death tolls were
predicted to be high if measures like isolation, etc. were
not implemented. They were implemented. The death toll thus
dropped.

That also applies to the death rate, because it's tied to
the peak numbers. It's true that the denominator - the total
number of cases - is badly known. But that is fairly heavily
linked to decisions by this administration. We heard today
that Washington doesn't have resources to test 100 senators!

What would _you_ have done differently and on which date
and why didn't you warn all of us at the time? And what
even now, in hindsight, could have been better?

Me? I wouldn't have disassembled a pandemic response team a
year or two ago. I wouldn't have said there are only about
15 cases and there will soon be zero. I wouldn't have spread
rumors about unproven therapies that will soon make
everything wonderful again. I would have tried for a
national strategy that helped all states as needed, rather
than demanding kowtowing from individual governors. I
absolutely would have stayed off the damned golf course, I
would have stopped watching ALL television and never would
have watched Fox News at all, let alone followed its crazy
ideas. I would never have had a Twitter account, but if
deemed necessary, I'd have had someone with a modicum of
intelligence act as a Twitter editor.

This isn't a Republican vs. Democrat thing. DeWine did well,
and is doing well. Trump is an obnoxious buffoon and a
disaster. We're very lucky he hasn't fired Fauci and Birx
quite yet.



I'm not blaming Fauci because absolutely no man can know the
futu

"It isn't something the American public needs to worry about
or be frightened about, because we have ways of preparing
and screening of people coming in [from China]," National
Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)
Director Anthony Fauci

DeSantis, with 2 million more people than New York, didn't
utterly destroy his State and yet enjoys a far lower rate of
death by Wuhan Virus than Cuomo. Again, correlation of
punitive edicts and Wuhan death are ephemeral.(See T J
Rodgers' meta analysis) Good intentions and actual positive
outcomes are not the same thing.

Who among us would have said months ago that a pandemic was
a more probable risk than a terrorist event? I would not have.
http://www.yellowjersey.org/photosfr...t/hsschart.jpg

[couldn't find it online]

There's still an open question about the difference if any
between 'pandemic' and 'bioweapon' in this extant case.

Again if you like that Orange Man song, sing it. But what
did you suggest at the time?

Since the world is a very big place, which State or country
has proved correct? Japan never closed businesses and enjoys
a low rate. Belgium is devastated. Areas differ, but a hard
lesson hasn't yet been proved. Meanwhile the imposed costs
are very real and may be more permanent and more damaging
than the virus itself.

Lastly I don't know the answers to any of this but I suspect
that overreaction hasn't stopped death yet has wrought
terrible collateral damage.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 5/1/2020 4:34 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/1/2020 2:22 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/1/2020 2:19 PM, AMuzi wrote:

A month after the President closed travel from China (and
then went further to restrict travel from Europe and
repatriate US citizens from overseas to quarantine here)
the experts were saying 'Americans need not worry'.

Please. Trump didn't "close travel from China." It's much
more accurate to say he stopped Chinese from coming to
America. Tens of thousands still traveled after that
supposed closure.
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/th...-restrictions/



And please don't paint "the experts" as a crowd marching in
lockstep saying this virus was no problem for Americans. The
majority of the administration's advisors, doubtlessly
including Fauci and Birx, were taking this very seriously.

In March the same experts were saying '1~2 million dead
USAians'. which wasn't quite right either. Then the
experts said '4~5% death rate' which also turned out to be
magnitudes off the actual numbers.

It would help if you gave citations, and tell us exactly
which experts you're quoting. As I read it, death tolls were
predicted to be high if measures like isolation, etc. were
not implemented. They were implemented. The death toll thus
dropped.

That also applies to the death rate, because it's tied to
the peak numbers. It's true that the denominator - the total
number of cases - is badly known. But that is fairly heavily
linked to decisions by this administration. We heard today
that Washington doesn't have resources to test 100 senators!

What would _you_ have done differently and on which date
and why didn't you warn all of us at the time? And what
even now, in hindsight, could have been better?

Me? I wouldn't have disassembled a pandemic response team a
year or two ago. I wouldn't have said there are only about
15 cases and there will soon be zero. I wouldn't have spread
rumors about unproven therapies that will soon make
everything wonderful again. I would have tried for a
national strategy that helped all states as needed, rather
than demanding kowtowing from individual governors. I
absolutely would have stayed off the damned golf course, I
would have stopped watching ALL television and never would
have watched Fox News at all, let alone followed its crazy
ideas. I would never have had a Twitter account, but if
deemed necessary, I'd have had someone with a modicum of
intelligence act as a Twitter editor.

This isn't a Republican vs. Democrat thing. DeWine did well,
and is doing well. Trump is an obnoxious buffoon and a
disaster. We're very lucky he hasn't fired Fauci and Birx
quite yet.



I'm not blaming Fauci because absolutely no man can know the futu

"It isn't something the American public needs to worry about or be
frightened about, because we have ways of preparing and screening of
people coming in [from China]," National Institute of Allergy and
Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Director Anthony Fauci

Except Fauci did not say that "a month after the President closed travel
from China," as you claimed. He said it _before_ Trump _partially_
restricted travel from China, letting many thousands continue traveling
_without_ screening. Perhaps Fauci was envisioning strict quarantining
and testing. But Trump did not order that.

DeSantis, with 2 million more people than New York, didn't utterly
destroy his State and yet enjoys a far lower rate of death by Wuhan
Virus than Cuomo.

DeSantis also enjoys far, far lower population density than Cuomo, at
least where the virus ran rampant. You should be giving high praise for
Gov. Sisolak of Nevada. He's done a great job of keeping COVID down,
especially out in the desert away from Las Vegas!

There's still an open question about the difference if any between
'pandemic' and 'bioweapon' in this extant case.

One difference is whether a county releases it first upon an enemy, or
releases it first on its own people and economy. I doubt the Chinese
tanked their economy to get us.

Again if you like that Orange Man song, sing it. But what did you
suggest at the time?

Which time? Which decision? Which statement?

If my opinion were asked about dispersing an administration pandemic
response team to save money, I'd have been against it. It was no more
sensible than Reagan taking solar collectors off the White House. But
that happened under the radar.

Let's look at a contrasting approach. In general, DeWine has done almost
nothing to which I objected. I'm not claiming his has been perfect
response, but he's done well at consulting with experts, considering
consequences and options, making reasonable decisions, communicating
with the public, maintaining humility, blaming nobody, praising others.
He's avoided crackpot statements, bragging, blaming others, outright
lying, and general buffoonery.

So at any given point in time, I'd have suggested that if Trump couldn't
channel DeWine, Trump should have turned all this over to competent
people. He should have left the spotlight, smashed his cell phone,
turned off his damned TV, grabbed a hamburger, read a book and
eventually come back when it was all over to praise those who knew what
they were doing.

Fantasy, I know.


--
- Frank Krygowski

On 5/1/2020 11:19 AM, AMuzi wrote:

snip

What would _you_ have done differently and on which date and why didn't
you warn all of us at the time? And what even now, in hindsight, could
have been better? Note T J Rodgers' analysis of the range of population
outcomes against the range of small to draconian efforts resulting in
nearly zero correlation.

Unfortunately, I did not receive all the briefings that Trump received.
If I had been president, and received briefings from medical and
security experts, what I would have done differently is that I would not
have ignored all the experts. Even in my lowly position, I often have to
get expert advice. However since I am not a narcissist, I'm able to say
"I don't have the expertise to make this decision so I'll defer to those
that do."

As to what Trump did that I would not have done:

• In 2018, the Trump administration dismantled a National Security
Council directorate at the White House charged with preparing for when,
not if, another pandemic would hit the nation. Dr. Anthony Fauci told
Congress “It would be nice if the office was still there,�

• The National Security Council office responsible for tracking
pandemics received intelligence reports in early January predicting the
spread of the virus to the United States, and within weeks was raising
options like keeping Americans home from work and shutting down cities
the size of Chicago. Mr. Trump would avoid such steps until March.

• Trump was told about a Jan. 29 memo produced by his trade adviser,
Peter Navarro, laying out in striking detail the potential risks of a
coronavirus pandemic: as many as half a million deaths and trillions of
dollars in economic losses. He ignored it.

• Health and human services secretary, Alex M. Azar II, warned Trump of
the possibility of a pandemic on Jan. 30, (the second warning he
delivered to the president about the virus in two weeks). The president
responded that Mr. Azar was being alarmist.

• Mr. Azar announced in February that the government was establishing a
“surveillance� system in five American cities to measure the spread of
the virus and enable experts to project the next hot spots. It was
delayed for weeks. The slow start of that plan, on top of the
well-documented failures to develop the nation’s testing capacity, left
administration officials with almost no insight into how rapidly the
virus was spreading.

• By the third week in February, the administration’s top public health
experts concluded they should recommend to Mr. Trump a new approach that
would include warning the American people of the risks and urging steps
like social distancing and staying home from work. But the White House
focused instead on messaging and crucial additional weeks went by before
their views were reluctantly accepted by the president — time when the
virus spread largely unimpeded.

• On March 17th Trump proclaimed that the WHO Covid-19 test was "a bad
test." There is zero evidence that the WHO’s preferred test is unreliable.

• On March 19th, Trump claimed that the FDA had approved the "very
powerful" drug chloroquine to treat coronavirus. This was untrue of
course. In fact the drug is toxic and can kill people.

• On April 23rd Trump suggested the possibility of an "injection" of
disinfectant into a person infected with the coronavirus as a deterrent
to the virus. The FDA, and manufacturers of disinfectants, rushed out
warnings to not inject or ingest disinfectants.

• In April, Trump encourage right-wing protests against stay-at-home
orders. Then switching sides he criticized the governor of Georgia for
reopening.

• A decision by the State Department to allow 14 American cruise-ship
passengers infected by the virus were allowed to fly home from Japan on
the same plane with hundreds of others who were uninfected, came over
the objection of officials at the CDC.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------
"After Trump is gone, one of the things I'm going to remember is the
cowardice of people that went along." ─ Richard Primus
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 10:57:25 PM UTC, John B. wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 18:37:28 +0200, Sepp Ruf
wrote:

news18 wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:12:34 +0700, John B. wrote:

It depends on the surface. For sars-Cov2, Cu about 4 hours to plastic
for weeks.
also depends on the mu-flora and wheather if gets consumed '

Ok, on a plastic surface it is viable for weeks. But what is Cu? and I
did look... and came across 82 definitions, starting with Credit Union
and ending with Coefficient of Utilization.

Cu (from Latin: cuprum)is the symbol for copper.

Cheers

Or Christian Union, or Coming Unglued, or Celeron Unit, or Cardiac Unit,
or... :-)

Yes, any of those might have it too, but you wouldn't normally define
them as a surface

John, here's an airbus driver's ed test for you:
http://avherald.com/h?article=4d1e782d
You have fourty (40) seconds to find out, without looking at the comments,
which one is the least important data piece among these four,
A. 6.43 miles,
B. 668 ft,
C. 7 nanometers, or
D. 2000 fpm.

(Correct answer earns you one Former Flyer Mile with Thai Air.)

What in the world is an "airbus"? Is that something new that y'all
have invented back there in the Land of Plenty? Or are you referring
to the European company?

But you are comparing oranges and apples. Distance and velocity.
Tain't the same :-)
He was driving 100 mph when he hit the bridge abutment just ain't the
same as he drove a hundred miles to hit the bridge abutment.
--
cheers,

John B.

Well, after the French and English aerospace companies built the Concorde supersonic plane, they started building subsonic plane to compete with U.S. plane builders.

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 1:49:57 PM UTC, wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 2:34:51 AM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
Am 30.03.2020 um 02:57 schrieb John B.:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:01:53 +0300, Eric Pozharski
wrote:

with John B wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 09:45:07 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 12:01:47 UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:

As usual, discussions here have devolved into childish name calling
by some, demeaning published facts and data, quick political jabs,
defensive changes of subjet, and "I know better than anyone"
allusions. Things get obscured.
*SKIP*
Thailand has imposed some pretty draconian regulations to fight the
virus and while I'm not sure whether it is a viable calculation their
new cases number is 8% of total cases. The U.S. with apparently fewer
restrictions has a new case total of about 14% of the total cases. At
this rate the U.S. will exceed 200,000 cases in about 4 more days :-(

For kernel's sake, can we start to think in ratios, plz? Let me reframe
this.

X -- grand total cases (not mentioned in the post by "John B"; I'm
not going to figure out at how many it is/was (at time of
posting by "John B"))
x_t -- cases in Thailand (0.08X)
x_u -- cases in USA (0.14X)
p_t -- population in Thailland (694 of 100K people, estimate 2018)
p_u -- population in USA (3087 of 100K people, estimate 2019)

Now, r_t would be ( x_t X / p_t ) or ( 1.15e-4 X ), and r_u would be
( x_u X / p_u ) or ( 4.54e-5 X ).

Now, it looks like USA is going 2.54 better then Thailand. But
important question is -- at what timespan?

plz fill in blanks and/or correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't have to do all that fancy figuring. Just look at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The U.S. has 426 cases per 1,000,000 population and Thailand has 20
cases per 1,000,000 population. The U.S. has had 7 deaths/1 million
and Thailand 0.1/1 million.
Oh Yes, "time span" The U.S. reported their first virus case on 10
January and Thailand on 12 January. The U.S. reported 7,412 new cases
as of March 29, 2020, 22:34 GMT and Thailand reported 143 ( that is
22.47/1 million and 2.0). If daily the difference is so great than 2
days is negligible :-)

Some graphical comparisons are here
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#covid-world-seasia including
Thailand vs USA on graph 27.

Do you see how rapidly those graphs are dropping below the 22% daily increase number that they originally predicted. This is because as I stated, the most vulnerable groups are rapidly eliminated from the target groups.

Remember that I originally said that this disease was self limiting? That it had to be in the population a great deal longer than guessed because it simply moved far too rapidly and widely to have been started in November?

Yep. I had a bad case of Bronchitis started early November, worst just after Thanksgiving, and lasted past Christmas. Had one day where sitting up or walking I felt light headed.

Somebody did a correlation of degree of COVID19 Illness and Vitamin D3 levels. Normal range is 20-100. People under 30 had moderate to Severe illness. People over 30 had mild illness. https://www.grassrootshealth.net/blo...amin-d-levels/

Another study showed respiratory illnesses, including seasonal flu and COVID19, were markedly reduced if Vitamin D3 levels were over 40. Recommends 10,000 I.U. per day for a few weeks ten 5,000 I.U. a day for life. Fat soluble so blood levels very slow to rise. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32252338/ Of course if you spend a lot of time out side without sunscreen, you may already be above 20.

On Fri, 1 May 2020 08:19:05 -0700, sms
wrote:

On 4/30/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:

snip

Wake up and smell the flowers Tom.

In the U.S. there are currently 1,095,210 diagnosed cases of Covid-19.
Of this number some 216,105 (~20%) cases have been "cleared" either by
recovery or by death. Of this number 152,324 have recovered and 63,861
have died. You do the numbers, of all the cases that are cleared -
ended - some 70% have recovered and ~30% have died.

Another point that might be of interest is that on Apr 20th there were
798,145 virus cases in the U.S. and on 30 Apr there were 1,0995,023,
an increase of 37% in 10 days. At that rate on 10 May you may have a
million and a half cases and by the 20th it could be 2 million.
--
cheers,

John B.


Not sure who started this thread, I must have them filtered out, but the
reality is that opinions are not of much value when it comes to Covid-19.

We must consider the science and the facts when making policy decisions.

Fortunately, in my area, education levels are high and there is
widespread support for fact-based decision making. We've seen none of
the faux protests that have been organized by right-wing groups; the
closest one was a small protest down in Orange County, the only urban
area in California with a slight Republican majority.

You pointing out the facts to Tom is nice, but it's not going to help
with those whose handlers are feeding them false information.

Perhaps. I have never been involved in politics but I have been in
managerial positions in companies competing for work with other
companies and I spent a fairish amount of my time determining whether
information was true or false.
--
cheers,

John B.

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 8:19:12 AM UTC-7, sms wrote:
On 4/30/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:

snip

Wake up and smell the flowers Tom.

In the U.S. there are currently 1,095,210 diagnosed cases of Covid-19.
Of this number some 216,105 (~20%) cases have been "cleared" either by
recovery or by death. Of this number 152,324 have recovered and 63,861
have died. You do the numbers, of all the cases that are cleared -
ended - some 70% have recovered and ~30% have died.

Another point that might be of interest is that on Apr 20th there were
798,145 virus cases in the U.S. and on 30 Apr there were 1,0995,023,
an increase of 37% in 10 days. At that rate on 10 May you may have a
million and a half cases and by the 20th it could be 2 million.
--
cheers,

John B.


Not sure who started this thread, I must have them filtered out, but the
reality is that opinions are not of much value when it comes to Covid-19.

We must consider the science and the facts when making policy decisions.

Fortunately, in my area, education levels are high and there is
widespread support for fact-based decision making. We've seen none of
the faux protests that have been organized by right-wing groups; the
closest one was a small protest down in Orange County, the only urban
area in California with a slight Republican majority.

You pointing out the facts to Tom is nice, but it's not going to help
with those whose handlers are feeding them false information.

Tell us what education you have? I find it humorous that some mayor of a small town seems to think he knows about anything. Your stupid comments about tens of thousands of additional deaths is so demonstrative of your ignorance that I have saved that to pass on to any opponent you have if you have any political ambitions.

On Tue, 5 May 2020 10:22:32 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 8:19:12 AM UTC-7, sms wrote:
On 4/30/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:

snip

Wake up and smell the flowers Tom.

In the U.S. there are currently 1,095,210 diagnosed cases of Covid-19.
Of this number some 216,105 (~20%) cases have been "cleared" either by
recovery or by death. Of this number 152,324 have recovered and 63,861
have died. You do the numbers, of all the cases that are cleared -
ended - some 70% have recovered and ~30% have died.

Another point that might be of interest is that on Apr 20th there were
798,145 virus cases in the U.S. and on 30 Apr there were 1,0995,023,
an increase of 37% in 10 days. At that rate on 10 May you may have a
million and a half cases and by the 20th it could be 2 million.
--
cheers,

John B.


Not sure who started this thread, I must have them filtered out, but the
reality is that opinions are not of much value when it comes to Covid-19.

We must consider the science and the facts when making policy decisions.

Fortunately, in my area, education levels are high and there is
widespread support for fact-based decision making. We've seen none of
the faux protests that have been organized by right-wing groups; the
closest one was a small protest down in Orange County, the only urban
area in California with a slight Republican majority.

You pointing out the facts to Tom is nice, but it's not going to help
with those whose handlers are feeding them false information.

Tell us what education you have? I find it humorous that some mayor of a small town seems to think he knows about anything. Your stupid comments about tens of thousands of additional deaths is so demonstrative of your ignorance that I have saved that to pass on to any opponent you have if you have any political ambitions.

And you, who never finished high school know everything?

A delusion is a false belief that is not subject to reason or
contradictory evidence which may be firmly maintained in the face of
incontrovertible evidence that it is false. Delusions are common
psychotic disorders and can also be a feature of brain damage or
disorders.
--
cheers,

John B.

On 5/5/2020 1:22 PM, wrote:


Tell us what education you have?

.... asks the high school dropout. :-)


--
- Frank Krygowski

John B. writes:

On Tue, 5 May 2020 10:22:32 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 8:19:12 AM UTC-7, sms wrote:
On 4/30/2020 7:57 PM, John B. wrote:

snip

Wake up and smell the flowers Tom.

In the U.S. there are currently 1,095,210 diagnosed cases of Covid-19.
Of this number some 216,105 (~20%) cases have been "cleared" either by
recovery or by death. Of this number 152,324 have recovered and 63,861
have died. You do the numbers, of all the cases that are cleared -
ended - some 70% have recovered and ~30% have died.

Another point that might be of interest is that on Apr 20th there were
798,145 virus cases in the U.S. and on 30 Apr there were 1,0995,023,
an increase of 37% in 10 days. At that rate on 10 May you may have a
million and a half cases and by the 20th it could be 2 million.
--
cheers,

John B.


Not sure who started this thread, I must have them filtered out, but the
reality is that opinions are not of much value when it comes to Covid-19.

We must consider the science and the facts when making policy decisions.

Fortunately, in my area, education levels are high and there is
widespread support for fact-based decision making. We've seen none of
the faux protests that have been organized by right-wing groups; the
closest one was a small protest down in Orange County, the only urban
area in California with a slight Republican majority.

You pointing out the facts to Tom is nice, but it's not going to help
with those whose handlers are feeding them false information.

Tell us what education you have? I find it humorous that some mayor
of a small town seems to think he knows about anything. Your stupid
comments about tens of thousands of additional deaths is so
demonstrative of your ignorance that I have saved that to pass on to
any opponent you have if you have any political ambitions.

And you, who never finished high school know everything?

From what I've seen, the chief skill needed for small city politics (and
maybe bigger politics, but I don't know any of those people) is getting
along with a wide range of people, reasonable and unreasonable. Clearly
it's not something of which all of us are capable, myself among the
lacking.