What happened to the bike boom?

I've long thought that surges and declines in bicycling popularity are
chaotic, driven more by fashion than by policy or government action.

The author of this excerpt seems to agree:
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2...70s-cycle-boom

Want to get more butts on bikes? Instead of trying to influence
government to install paint stripes and concrete barriers, it may be
more effective to arrange to photograph a couple Kardashians riding.

--
- Frank Krygowski

On 2017-06-27 08:44, Frank Krygowski wrote:
I've long thought that surges and declines in bicycling popularity are
chaotic, driven more by fashion than by policy or government action.

The author of this excerpt seems to agree:
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2...70s-cycle-boom


Want to get more butts on bikes? Instead of trying to influence
government to install paint stripes and concrete barriers, it may be
more effective to arrange to photograph a couple Kardashians riding.


Looks like there wasn't ever a dramatic drop-off, almost as many new
bikes are sold in the US today as in the boom year:

http://nbda.com/articles/industry-ov...-2015-pg34.htm

Corrected by the increased population it's less but OTOH the bikes that
are sold nowadays contain a larger percentage of "real" bicycles. Bought
at reputable bike shops and in the four-digit price range. Else
companies such as Trek, Felt, Fuji, Cannondale would not exist.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

On Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 8:44:22 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
I've long thought that surges and declines in bicycling popularity are
chaotic, driven more by fashion than by policy or government action.

The author of this excerpt seems to agree:
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2...70s-cycle-boom

Want to get more butts on bikes? Instead of trying to influence
government to install paint stripes and concrete barriers, it may be
more effective to arrange to photograph a couple Kardashians riding.

I might suggest that the Kardashians (is that from Star Trek?) actually are followers and not leaders.

Send letters to the editors explaining the advantages of bicycling. Just riding isn't enough. You have to brag about how fast you are or how your health is better than theirs. Challenge people and they react.

On Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 9:06:03 AM UTC-7, Joerg wrote:
On 2017-06-27 08:44, Frank Krygowski wrote:
I've long thought that surges and declines in bicycling popularity are
chaotic, driven more by fashion than by policy or government action.

The author of this excerpt seems to agree:
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2...70s-cycle-boom


Want to get more butts on bikes? Instead of trying to influence
government to install paint stripes and concrete barriers, it may be
more effective to arrange to photograph a couple Kardashians riding.


Looks like there wasn't ever a dramatic drop-off, almost as many new
bikes are sold in the US today as in the boom year:

http://nbda.com/articles/industry-ov...-2015-pg34.htm

Corrected by the increased population it's less but OTOH the bikes that
are sold nowadays contain a larger percentage of "real" bicycles. Bought
at reputable bike shops and in the four-digit price range. Else
companies such as Trek, Felt, Fuji, Cannondale would not exist.

But the population has grown a great deal and most new bike sales are to aficionados.

On 2017-06-27 09:08, wrote:
On Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 9:06:03 AM UTC-7, Joerg wrote:
On 2017-06-27 08:44, Frank Krygowski wrote:
I've long thought that surges and declines in bicycling popularity are
chaotic, driven more by fashion than by policy or government action.

The author of this excerpt seems to agree:
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2...70s-cycle-boom


Want to get more butts on bikes? Instead of trying to influence
government to install paint stripes and concrete barriers, it may be
more effective to arrange to photograph a couple Kardashians riding.


Looks like there wasn't ever a dramatic drop-off, almost as many new
bikes are sold in the US today as in the boom year:

http://nbda.com/articles/industry-ov...-2015-pg34.htm

Corrected by the increased population it's less but OTOH the bikes that
are sold nowadays contain a larger percentage of "real" bicycles. Bought
at reputable bike shops and in the four-digit price range. Else
companies such as Trek, Felt, Fuji, Cannondale would not exist.

But the population has grown a great deal and most new bike sales are to aficionados.


From 1975 the population grew by about 30%, not an extreme percentage.
Aficionados are a good thing because that means the average miles ridden
per year are probably much higher now per sold bicycle. Minus the garage
queens, of course, but we always had those.

What had a lot to do with keeping the numbers that good are cities such
as Portland which built out cycle paths. They achieved a respectable
mode share which results in lots of cycling miles per year, and
subsequently bike sales. I can see the same effect here, just not to
that extent.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

Frank Krygowski writes:

I've long thought that surges and declines in
bicycling popularity are chaotic, driven more by
fashion than by policy or government action.

If you read the press there is always a bike boom
somewhe Chicago, Detroit, Paris, Peking... Here,
people always went by bike but very few are *into*
bikes. Actually, I wasn't into bikes either before
I started this project even tho I've used them all my
life. Now I read the cycling press and the books I've
found in the city library. I suppose it is just the
way the brain works. Lucky me I didn't start a studio
for collecting stamps because then maybe this "post"
would have ended up on alt.collecting.stamp instead...

--
underground experts united
http://user.it.uu.se/~embe8573

On 6/27/2017 9:06 AM, Joerg wrote:

snip

Looks like there wasn't ever a dramatic drop-off, almost as many new
bikes are sold in the US today as in the boom year:

http://nbda.com/articles/industry-ov...-2015-pg34.htm

Corrected by the increased population it's less but OTOH the bikes that
are sold nowadays contain a larger percentage of "real" bicycles. Bought
at reputable bike shops and in the four-digit price range. Else
companies such as Trek, Felt, Fuji, Cannondale would not exist.

You can't really correlate new bicycle sales to the number of actual
riders, since there are often other factors that lead to more or less
cycling.

In my area, there is a "boom" in riding but it's being driven by several
factors that aren't directly related to new bicycle sales.

1. Increased infrastructure so it's safer to bicycle, or at least it's
perceived as safer (and the increased number of riders does probably
make it safer).
2. Increased vehicle traffic so the time difference between driving and
bicycling has decreased.
3. Increased mixed-mode commuting (bicycle/train, bicycle/light-rail,
bicycle/bus).
4. More cycling segments. I see seven different groups in my area and
they all seem to be increasing in numbers
1. Professionals commuting to work.
2. Day workers.
3. Students
4. Recreational "hard core" riders
5. Bike-share riders, specifically Apple employees riding between
buildings.
6. Mountain Bikers
7. Seniors, specifically non-driving seniors from other countries
that live with their adult children.

Also be careful about "real bicycles." Besides "reputable bicycle shops"
there's a tier between Walmart/Target bicycles with a street price of
$50-150 and higher end bicycle shop bikes. Dick's Sporting Goods, for
example, sells some mid-range models in the $500-1000 price range. REI
and Sports Basement have excellent bicycle departments. Even Costco
occasionally has some decent stuff in the $400 price range, though you
get zero service from Costco (though when Cannondale did the recall for
quick-release/disc brakes, their dealers did have to fix the Costco-sold
Cannondales as well).

On 2017-06-27 10:20, sms wrote:
On 6/27/2017 9:06 AM, Joerg wrote:

snip

Looks like there wasn't ever a dramatic drop-off, almost as many new
bikes are sold in the US today as in the boom year:

http://nbda.com/articles/industry-ov...-2015-pg34.htm

Corrected by the increased population it's less but OTOH the bikes
that are sold nowadays contain a larger percentage of "real" bicycles.
Bought at reputable bike shops and in the four-digit price range. Else
companies such as Trek, Felt, Fuji, Cannondale would not exist.

You can't really correlate new bicycle sales to the number of actual
riders, since there are often other factors that lead to more or less
cycling.

In my area, there is a "boom" in riding but it's being driven by several
factors that aren't directly related to new bicycle sales.

1. Increased infrastructure so it's safer to bicycle, or at least it's
perceived as safer (and the increased number of riders does probably
make it safer).
2. Increased vehicle traffic so the time difference between driving and
bicycling has decreased.
3. Increased mixed-mode commuting (bicycle/train, bicycle/light-rail,
bicycle/bus).
4. More cycling segments. I see seven different groups in my area and
they all seem to be increasing in numbers
1. Professionals commuting to work.


In our area those almost exclusively only show up in areas where bike
paths or at least bike lanes have been built.


2. Day workers.
3. Students
4. Recreational "hard core" riders


I guess I am mostly one of those. Plus errand rides.


5. Bike-share riders, specifically Apple employees riding between
buildings.
6. Mountain Bikers


Their numbers have increased here, big time. In part after some trails
were opened so you actually had some legal riding turf. Many truck their
bikes up from the Bay Area because there ain't that much turf there.
Some bike shop owners said the mountain bikers have kept them afloat
during lean years because they break expensive stuff all the time.


7. Seniors, specifically non-driving seniors from other countries
that live with their adult children.

Also be careful about "real bicycles." Besides "reputable bicycle shops"
there's a tier between Walmart/Target bicycles with a street price of
$50-150 and higher end bicycle shop bikes. Dick's Sporting Goods, for
example, sells some mid-range models in the $500-1000 price range. REI
and Sports Basement have excellent bicycle departments. Even Costco
occasionally has some decent stuff in the $400 price range, though you
get zero service from Costco (though when Cannondale did the recall for
quick-release/disc brakes, their dealers did have to fix the Costco-sold
Cannondales as well).


Yes, there is the club warehouse segment and similar. However, most of
the sub-$1k bicycles lack in many details. For example, a MTB with rim
brakes is almost useless out here as a year-round vehicle. So they end
up shelling out another $200 plus labor for a disc upgrade. It the bike
doesn't have the caliper bosses they are screwed.

Then those bikes have cheap tires and tubes so they have to replace
those almost immediately. Next, the saddle wears through, fast. Either
itself or the rider's butt. There goes another $50-100. Pretty soon the
bargain is not much of a bargain anymore.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

On Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 9:43:39 AM UTC-7, Emanuel Berg wrote:
Frank Krygowski writes:

I've long thought that surges and declines in
bicycling popularity are chaotic, driven more by
fashion than by policy or government action.

If you read the press there is always a bike boom
somewhe Chicago, Detroit, Paris, Peking... Here,
people always went by bike but very few are *into*
bikes. Actually, I wasn't into bikes either before
I started this project even tho I've used them all my
life. Now I read the cycling press and the books I've
found in the city library. I suppose it is just the
way the brain works. Lucky me I didn't start a studio
for collecting stamps because then maybe this "post"
would have ended up on alt.collecting.stamp instead...

The Tour de France starts in a couple of days.

On Tue, 27 Jun 2017 09:06:01 -0700, Joerg
wrote:

On 2017-06-27 08:44, Frank Krygowski wrote:
I've long thought that surges and declines in bicycling popularity are
chaotic, driven more by fashion than by policy or government action.

The author of this excerpt seems to agree:
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2...70s-cycle-boom


Want to get more butts on bikes? Instead of trying to influence
government to install paint stripes and concrete barriers, it may be
more effective to arrange to photograph a couple Kardashians riding.


Looks like there wasn't ever a dramatic drop-off, almost as many new
bikes are sold in the US today as in the boom year:

http://nbda.com/articles/industry-ov...-2015-pg34.htm

Corrected by the increased population it's less but OTOH the bikes that
are sold nowadays contain a larger percentage of "real" bicycles. Bought
at reputable bike shops and in the four-digit price range. Else
companies such as Trek, Felt, Fuji, Cannondale would not exist.

According to www.statista.com the highest bike sales in recent history
was 20.9 million bikes in 2,000. the lowest was 14.9 million in 2009
and the last year quoted was 2015 with sales of 17.4 million.

In per capita terms that would be 1 per 13.5 people in 2000, 1 per
20.5 in 2009 and in 2015 it was 1 per 18.4. In short bike sales were
substantially lower, per capita, in 2015 then they had been at their
peak, in 2000.

As to place of sales, nbda.com (National Bike Dealers Association) has
it that. "Department, discount and chain toy stores (mass merchants)
sell mostly price-oriented products. Approximately 74% of bicycle
units were sold through the mass merchant channel in 2015".
--
Cheers,

John B.