Fun with exponents

On Wed, 27 May 2020 14:32:34 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 12:36:46 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 1:43 PM, wrote:

Only someone in a financially secure position could ignore the pain and suffering of people whose source of income has been cut off...

Only a person who has no friend or family infected or seriously at risk
could ignore the pain and suffering of those with COVID.

... for no reasons whatsoever.

That's the view of a person with zero qualifications, despite strong
disagreement from qualified experts in every country worldwide.

On a clear day you couldn't see beyond you nose.

Before ANY of the shouting is done, the CDC has already reduced the numbers of covid-19 deaths by 25%. This isn't going to stop here since other CDC studies show that the chances of someone that has covid-19 AND SYNPTOMS (only 25% of those with the disease) have a 0.05% chance of dying. It is a pity that you mind doesn't work anymore. All you have left is bitter hatred for those that point it out.

Gee Tommy, I really truly do feel bad about telling you the truth but
the death rate among virus suffers, in the U.S., today is 17%, in the
world it is 13%.And while a paltry 4% seems like almost nothing it
actually amounts to something like 254,613 (that didn't die).

But never mind reality, Tommy. Just keep telling your lies and perhaps
the Virus will just go away.
--
cheers,

John B.

On Wed, 27 May 2020 13:35:50 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 12:13 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 9:42:34 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote:
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few
of them
want to be competent. Top of the list in that category
is Dr. Fauci
of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at
things he knows
very little about.

Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National
Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work
for the CDC.
NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of
Health). He's has
been involved with controlling several previous
epidemics, which I
presume qualifies as experience:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is
better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

There is a place for those who sit around, think and
read papers.
I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in
the real world
as many other epidemiologists are and they often
interview them on
FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't
much you can
do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate.

I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself
from a viral
epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't
think that's what
you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also
seem to have
changed your position on Dr Fauci from:

"Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an
expert at things he knows very little about."

to:

"I do not deny Fauci that much."

That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on
infectious
diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him
something you
didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to
have an
opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled
to discount
your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your
opinion about
Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of
someone in the
US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to
handle a
pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some
names in China
that are substantially more qualified and equally
experienced, but
such experts would not be considered as candidates for
advising our
president, who knows more than any or all of them,
Here's one
candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned
for having is
bureau eliminated by the Trump administration:
"A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump
administration amid the
coronavirus crisis"
https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5



No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm).

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish
thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting
around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you
an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the
opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that
they know anything for the simple reason that they are
interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than
some stupid biased punk.

Your homework, Tom:

!) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that
because you obviously know very, very little about him.

2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux
News managed to dig up.

Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with
his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci.

We'll even give bonus points for a little more work:

3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your
opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology,
ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine,
sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know -
all the other things about which you, as a high school
dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained,
experienced, and recognized experts.


Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and
political survivor who knows something but surely not
everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has
different opinions but gets no media traction:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/

Knows something? Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong, which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience, and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences based on risk tolerance.

The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the US to be a good control. Personally, I don't care if a lot of people die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people who I don't know.

-- Jay Beattie.



I have no animus toward Dr Fauci. There just aren't enough
Italians in the world.

But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt
and call it well intentioned, but his various positions (no
mask, maybe mask, mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no
confidence. His famous statements "Americans need not worry"
, "No worse than the flu" and so on are endlessly repeated
and need no further comment from me.

And we do indeed have real world real time policy
comparisons. Mr DeSantis rigorously and immediately
protected old age homes, rehab centers, assisted living
facilities and retirement communities ending with a small
fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace
and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings
and hope of working citizens and small business owners.

In January, Tom Cotton was saying:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk

As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't.

Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but
humans are a widely variable lot and none are perfect.

(Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either)

So what is the solution? Just say "**** it" and go on about your
business as normal?

As I believe I have previously written, Thailand has been able to
trace nearly every virus case to it's source and in the majority of
the early cases were traced to places and events where a large number
or people congregated.Once lock down was in force, and enforced, the
numbers of new cases dropped dramatically and were almost wholly
limited to single new infections between family members.
--
cheers,

John B.

On Wed, 27 May 2020 08:51:08 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 8:28:14 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
In today's news:

https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/

Which could happen, But it won't.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.
--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

https://vivomix.com/2020/05/08/dr-an...ts-fact-check/

While there are many ifs, ands and buts, the clearly substantiated claims that Fauci and the CDC was profiting on supposed "cures" that were not properly tested is not open to argument.

Yes Sir! While there are many ifs, ands and buts, the clearly
substantiated facts are that Tommy boy doesn't know what he is talking
about and tells lies.
--
cheers,

John B.

On 5/27/2020 7:21 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 11:42:30 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote:
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few
of them
want to be competent. Top of the list in that category
is Dr. Fauci
of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at
things he knows
very little about.

Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National
Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work
for the CDC.
NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of
Health). He's has
been involved with controlling several previous
epidemics, which I
presume qualifies as experience:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is
better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

There is a place for those who sit around, think and
read papers.
I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in
the real world
as many other epidemiologists are and they often
interview them on
FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't
much you can
do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate.

I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself
from a viral
epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't
think that's what
you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also
seem to have
changed your position on Dr Fauci from:

"Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an
expert at things he knows very little about."

to:

"I do not deny Fauci that much."

That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on
infectious
diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him
something you
didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to
have an
opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled
to discount
your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your
opinion about
Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of
someone in the
US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to
handle a
pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some
names in China
that are substantially more qualified and equally
experienced, but
such experts would not be considered as candidates for
advising our
president, who knows more than any or all of them,
Here's one
candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned
for having is
bureau eliminated by the Trump administration:
"A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump
administration amid the
coronavirus crisis"
https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5



No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm).

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish
thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting
around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you
an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the
opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that
they know anything for the simple reason that they are
interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than
some stupid biased punk.

Your homework, Tom:

!) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that
because you obviously know very, very little about him.

2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux
News managed to dig up.

Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with
his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci.

We'll even give bonus points for a little more work:

3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your
opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology,
ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine,
sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know -
all the other things about which you, as a high school
dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained,
experienced, and recognized experts.


Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and
political survivor who knows something but surely not
everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has
different opinions but gets no media traction:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/

And yet, countries that did institute a lock down, in a timely manner,
have noticeably lower cases and deaths.
(please note the phrase "timely manner")


Italy did and lost many. Japan did not and lost few.
Sweden is not out of line to her neighbors and yet still has
some GDP remaining.

There's no correlation. You can imply one as you will but
it's not clear at all that such relationship exists.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 5/27/2020 7:44 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 13:35:50 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 12:13 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 9:42:34 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote:
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few
of them
want to be competent. Top of the list in that category
is Dr. Fauci
of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at
things he knows
very little about.

Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National
Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work
for the CDC.
NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of
Health). He's has
been involved with controlling several previous
epidemics, which I
presume qualifies as experience:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is
better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

There is a place for those who sit around, think and
read papers.
I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in
the real world
as many other epidemiologists are and they often
interview them on
FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't
much you can
do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate.

I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself
from a viral
epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't
think that's what
you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also
seem to have
changed your position on Dr Fauci from:

"Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an
expert at things he knows very little about."

to:

"I do not deny Fauci that much."

That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on
infectious
diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him
something you
didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to
have an
opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled
to discount
your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your
opinion about
Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of
someone in the
US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to
handle a
pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some
names in China
that are substantially more qualified and equally
experienced, but
such experts would not be considered as candidates for
advising our
president, who knows more than any or all of them,
Here's one
candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned
for having is
bureau eliminated by the Trump administration:
"A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump
administration amid the
coronavirus crisis"
https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5



No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm).

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish
thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting
around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you
an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the
opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that
they know anything for the simple reason that they are
interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than
some stupid biased punk.

Your homework, Tom:

!) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that
because you obviously know very, very little about him.

2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux
News managed to dig up.

Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with
his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci.

We'll even give bonus points for a little more work:

3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your
opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology,
ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine,
sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know -
all the other things about which you, as a high school
dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained,
experienced, and recognized experts.


Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and
political survivor who knows something but surely not
everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has
different opinions but gets no media traction:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/

Knows something? Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong, which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience, and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences based on risk tolerance.

The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the US to be a good control. Personally, I don't care if a lot of people die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people who I don't know.

-- Jay Beattie.



I have no animus toward Dr Fauci. There just aren't enough
Italians in the world.

But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt
and call it well intentioned, but his various positions (no
mask, maybe mask, mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no
confidence. His famous statements "Americans need not worry"
, "No worse than the flu" and so on are endlessly repeated
and need no further comment from me.

And we do indeed have real world real time policy
comparisons. Mr DeSantis rigorously and immediately
protected old age homes, rehab centers, assisted living
facilities and retirement communities ending with a small
fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace
and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings
and hope of working citizens and small business owners.

In January, Tom Cotton was saying:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk

As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't.

Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but
humans are a widely variable lot and none are perfect.

(Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either)

So what is the solution? Just say "**** it" and go on about your
business as normal?

As I believe I have previously written, Thailand has been able to
trace nearly every virus case to it's source and in the majority of
the early cases were traced to places and events where a large number
or people congregated.Once lock down was in force, and enforced, the
numbers of new cases dropped dramatically and were almost wholly
limited to single new infections between family members.


Again, it is not heartless or dismissive of the dead to
explain to adult citizen any facts, where known, and advise
them. Japan did that very successfully without forcibly
closing businesses and thereby ruining careers, savings,
investments and various supply chains. The US of A has among
us children and idiots. Treating all of us as children or
idiots is not a good start to any policy.

As bad as our situation is, exacerbated by draconian
(perhaps unconstitutional[1] ) abuses of liberty, the
butcher's bill is yet to come. Suffering so far is minor
compared to the next several years. Most people have
absolutely no inkling of the vast damages and lost wealth we
will struggle mightily to replace. And it's not us alone.
American Christians in South America and Africa are warning
already of diminished food/medical/infrastructure transfers.
The problems of a $trillion-plus lost US productivity is
larger and broader than you might at first imagine.

[1] There are several examples of quarantine laws or
vaccination rules upheld (Jacobson v MA). This is not that.
There aren't AFAIK prior examples of restricted liberty in
order to deflect the nation's attention from an actual problem.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Wed, 27 May 2020 19:53:38 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 7:21 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 11:42:30 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote:
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few
of them
want to be competent. Top of the list in that category
is Dr. Fauci
of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at
things he knows
very little about.

Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National
Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work
for the CDC.
NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of
Health). He's has
been involved with controlling several previous
epidemics, which I
presume qualifies as experience:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is
better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

There is a place for those who sit around, think and
read papers.
I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in
the real world
as many other epidemiologists are and they often
interview them on
FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't
much you can
do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate.

I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself
from a viral
epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't
think that's what
you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also
seem to have
changed your position on Dr Fauci from:

"Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an
expert at things he knows very little about."

to:

"I do not deny Fauci that much."

That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on
infectious
diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him
something you
didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to
have an
opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled
to discount
your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your
opinion about
Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of
someone in the
US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to
handle a
pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some
names in China
that are substantially more qualified and equally
experienced, but
such experts would not be considered as candidates for
advising our
president, who knows more than any or all of them,
Here's one
candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned
for having is
bureau eliminated by the Trump administration:
"A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump
administration amid the
coronavirus crisis"
https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5



No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm).

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish
thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting
around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you
an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the
opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that
they know anything for the simple reason that they are
interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than
some stupid biased punk.

Your homework, Tom:

!) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that
because you obviously know very, very little about him.

2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux
News managed to dig up.

Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with
his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci.

We'll even give bonus points for a little more work:

3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your
opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology,
ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine,
sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know -
all the other things about which you, as a high school
dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained,
experienced, and recognized experts.


Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and
political survivor who knows something but surely not
everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has
different opinions but gets no media traction:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/

And yet, countries that did institute a lock down, in a timely manner,
have noticeably lower cases and deaths.
(please note the phrase "timely manner")


Italy did and lost many. Japan did not and lost few.
Sweden is not out of line to her neighbors and yet still has
some GDP remaining.

RE Japan, no they didn't invoke a formal lock down but they did
encourage stores to close and mad some sort of payment to those that
did. They did trace the origin of the disease in individuals. They did
reduce person-to-person contact, the government has instructed the
public to refrain from going to high-risk environments (the Three Cs:
closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings) and events
involving movement between different areas of the country. It
emphasized extreme caution when coming in contact with the elderly.
The government also promoted such work-style reforms as teleworking
and staggering commuting hours, while improving the country's distance
learning infrastructure for children

The difference is perhaps that the Japanese people are more compliant
and tend to do what the government suggests while the normal U.S.
reaction, at least as evidenced here, is a sort of "f++k it", I want
to do what I want to do attitude.


There's no correlation. You can imply one as you will but
it's not clear at all that such relationship exists.
--
cheers,

John B.

On Wed, 27 May 2020 17:52:39 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 3:58 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:56:22 -0700, Jeff Liebermann
wrote:
Bicycle related drivel:
Water bottle fail. I grabbed it, and the now brittle plastic
crumbled. My guess(tm) is it was 30 years old. Argh.
http://www.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/water%20bottle%20fail.html

Blank page. So much for bibycle related content. I updated my photo
album software from Jalbum 20.0 to the latest 20.1. I also added the
above photo. The new and improved release did some odd things and
took far too long to coplete the upload. The next morning, I
discovered that all the photos on my web pile were gone. I have
backups, but until I put the mess back together, no photos. Sorry.

I saw it yesterday.

I also saw it yesterday. It was coming out of some manner of web
cache and not directly from the 1and1.com server. Hard to tell what's
happening as Shodan shows a weird server name:
74-208-236-55.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com
https://www.ip-tracker.org/locator/ip-lookup.php?ip=74-208-236-133.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com
Anyway, when the cache flushed overnight, all my photos went with it.
I'm resisting the temptation to completely change the structure of
the web site, but suspect it will be necessary anyway.

Typical outgassed polymer failure.

Thanks. The bottom of the bottle says it's LDPE (low-density
polyethylene) and was made in 1992 (28 years old). I've seen plastic
crumble, but not quite the way this bottle decided to crumble. Google
couldn't find anything useful under "outgassed polymer failure". Could
you point me to a web page where I can read about it? I've never seen
anything crumble this badly and I'm curious as to the failure
mechanism. (If you're busy, don't bother).

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

On Wed, 27 May 2020 20:15:03 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 7:44 PM, John B. wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 13:35:50 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 12:13 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 at 9:42:34 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 5/27/2020 11:42 AM, wrote:
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 7:17:19 PM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff
Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few
of them
want to be competent. Top of the list in that category
is Dr. Fauci
of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at
things he knows
very little about.

Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National
Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work
for the CDC.
NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of
Health). He's has
been involved with controlling several previous
epidemics, which I
presume qualifies as experience:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is
better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

There is a place for those who sit around, think and
read papers.
I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in
the real world
as many other epidemiologists are and they often
interview them on
FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't
much you can
do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate.

I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself
from a viral
epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't
think that's what
you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also
seem to have
changed your position on Dr Fauci from:

"Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an
expert at things he knows very little about."

to:

"I do not deny Fauci that much."

That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on
infectious
diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him
something you
didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to
have an
opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled
to discount
your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your
opinion about
Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of
someone in the
US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to
handle a
pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some
names in China
that are substantially more qualified and equally
experienced, but
such experts would not be considered as candidates for
advising our
president, who knows more than any or all of them,
Here's one
candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned
for having is
bureau eliminated by the Trump administration:
"A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump
administration amid the
coronavirus crisis"
https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5



No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm).

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish
thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting
around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you
an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the
opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that
they know anything for the simple reason that they are
interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than
some stupid biased punk.

Your homework, Tom:

!) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that
because you obviously know very, very little about him.

2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux
News managed to dig up.

Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with
his predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci.

We'll even give bonus points for a little more work:

3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your
opinions on epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology,
ballistics, human anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine,
sociology, geology, meteorology, technology, etc. You know -
all the other things about which you, as a high school
dropout, claim to be much smarter than hundreds of trained,
experienced, and recognized experts.


Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and
political survivor who knows something but surely not
everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has
different opinions but gets no media traction:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ge-establishm/

Knows something? Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong, which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience, and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences based on risk tolerance.

The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the US to be a good control. Personally, I don't care if a lot of people die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people who I don't know.

-- Jay Beattie.



I have no animus toward Dr Fauci. There just aren't enough
Italians in the world.

But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt
and call it well intentioned, but his various positions (no
mask, maybe mask, mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no
confidence. His famous statements "Americans need not worry"
, "No worse than the flu" and so on are endlessly repeated
and need no further comment from me.

And we do indeed have real world real time policy
comparisons. Mr DeSantis rigorously and immediately
protected old age homes, rehab centers, assisted living
facilities and retirement communities ending with a small
fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace
and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings
and hope of working citizens and small business owners.

In January, Tom Cotton was saying:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk

As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't.

Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but
humans are a widely variable lot and none are perfect.

(Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either)

So what is the solution? Just say "**** it" and go on about your
business as normal?

As I believe I have previously written, Thailand has been able to
trace nearly every virus case to it's source and in the majority of
the early cases were traced to places and events where a large number
or people congregated.Once lock down was in force, and enforced, the
numbers of new cases dropped dramatically and were almost wholly
limited to single new infections between family members.


Again, it is not heartless or dismissive of the dead to
explain to adult citizen any facts, where known, and advise
them. Japan did that very successfully without forcibly
closing businesses and thereby ruining careers, savings,
investments and various supply chains. The US of A has among
us children and idiots. Treating all of us as children or
idiots is not a good start to any policy.

As bad as our situation is, exacerbated by draconian
(perhaps unconstitutional[1] ) abuses of liberty, the
butcher's bill is yet to come. Suffering so far is minor
compared to the next several years. Most people have
absolutely no inkling of the vast damages and lost wealth we
will struggle mightily to replace. And it's not us alone.
American Christians in South America and Africa are warning
already of diminished food/medical/infrastructure transfers.
The problems of a $trillion-plus lost US productivity is
larger and broader than you might at first imagine.

[1] There are several examples of quarantine laws or
vaccination rules upheld (Jacobson v MA). This is not that.
There aren't AFAIK prior examples of restricted liberty in
order to deflect the nation's attention from an actual problem.


As I have said before, it is easy to wave your hands in the air and
shout, "Oh! that's wrong. But what is the solution?

Keep the stores and factories open? And what happens?

Well, actually nobody knows but, and again I'm using something that
happened here and was documented, a single boxing match attended by a
large number of people resulted in spreading the virus to more than
hundred individuals. A single infected employee, who does not yet
display symptoms could, possibly, infect every customer that enters
your place of business as well as you and all your employees.

Is that a better solution?
--
cheers,

John B.

On 5/27/2020 8:28 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Wed, 27 May 2020 17:52:39 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/27/2020 3:58 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:56:22 -0700, Jeff Liebermann
wrote:
Bicycle related drivel:
Water bottle fail. I grabbed it, and the now brittle plastic
crumbled. My guess(tm) is it was 30 years old. Argh.
http://www.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/water%20bottle%20fail.html

Blank page. So much for bibycle related content. I updated my photo
album software from Jalbum 20.0 to the latest 20.1. I also added the
above photo. The new and improved release did some odd things and
took far too long to coplete the upload. The next morning, I
discovered that all the photos on my web pile were gone. I have
backups, but until I put the mess back together, no photos. Sorry.

I saw it yesterday.

I also saw it yesterday. It was coming out of some manner of web
cache and not directly from the 1and1.com server. Hard to tell what's
happening as Shodan shows a weird server name:
74-208-236-55.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com
https://www.ip-tracker.org/locator/ip-lookup.php?ip=74-208-236-133.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com
Anyway, when the cache flushed overnight, all my photos went with it.
I'm resisting the temptation to completely change the structure of
the web site, but suspect it will be necessary anyway.

Typical outgassed polymer failure.

Thanks. The bottom of the bottle says it's LDPE (low-density
polyethylene) and was made in 1992 (28 years old). I've seen plastic
crumble, but not quite the way this bottle decided to crumble. Google
couldn't find anything useful under "outgassed polymer failure". Could
you point me to a web page where I can read about it? I've never seen
anything crumble this badly and I'm curious as to the failure
mechanism. (If you're busy, don't bother).


I first ran across that phenomenon in an article (mid
1990s?) about the Smithsonian's failed efforts to preserve
1950s-1960s toys and consumer products. Plastics have a
volatile plasticizer which just goes away, much like the
lubricant in grease which leaves only the crusty soap binder.

a quick search gives many results for buying pasticizers.
This seems relevant but I can't view past the 1st paragraph:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/n...suits-science/

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Wed, 27 May 2020 18:28:47 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

O
I also saw it yesterday. It was coming out of some manner of web cache
and not directly from the 1and1.com server. Hard to tell what's
happening as Shodan shows a weird server name:
74-208-236-55.elastic-ssl.ui-r.com

Err, 55.236.208,74 is probably the IPv4 address for elastic-ssl.ui-r.com
(I didn't check it).
Maybe some ones DNS just barfed.