In praise of Brooks saddles

On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 2:42:14 PM UTC-8, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:30:11 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:00:24 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US does not have the luxury of Chapter 11.

Stick to the law, Jay. You don't know **** about economics either, or realpolitik. If Donald Trump were to wake up in the morning with a sore head (everyone should consider themselves lucky that he's a teetotaller -- heh-heh) and announce that the US were repudiating all her foreign debts, everyone else except the US would hurt. (Here's a hint: he wouldn't put it like that, he'd announce the US was changing over to the Coyote Standard or some such.) And they'd immediately start buying US Treasury Bonds again, because they have too much stake in the US economy to let it slow or go under. And if they were slow, Trump would only have to hint that he was nationalising their US assets at nightfall for them to see the sense and logic of his position.

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what? If the US defaulted on all its debt, the economic system in the US as we know it would fail for a variety of reasons. The government lights would go off, and TK's Social Security welfare would be done. I'm not even talking about the foreign held debt or the world-wide effect of the collapse of our currency, although the failure of our currency would lead to massive inflation.

This is all imaginary since the US cannot constitutionally default on its debt (and redemption is by maturity date anyway, so the US would not default all at once). Taxes would have to be raised to meet obligations; the US would sell naming rights to the Washington Monument to Huawei. It would be the biggest fire sale in history. Massive, massive inflation.

Moving past the imaginary default Armageddon, the reality is that cutting tax revenues and rampant deficit spending just means inflation, higher borrowing costs, higher taxes -- basically another recession for the administration that gets stuck with the tab, regardless of party, although usually Democrat.

Ande Jute
If you owe the bank a thousand dollars you can't pay, you're in trouble.. If you owe the bank a hundred million dollars you *won't* pay, the bank is n trouble.

Not with collateralized debt or when the borrower is constitutionally obligated to repay the debt. In the real world, a bank would manage the risk with credit default swaps, credit insurance, etc., etc. Banks are not stupid, usually.

-- Jay Beattie.

Please don't pretend to be an economist. If we defaulted on our national debt it would be a problem but not that national catastrophe you seem to believe it. Has Greece or Turkey disappeared off of the mape

On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 3:08:07 PM UTC-8, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:35:46 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:17:36 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US has no VAT,

Crap. What do you think VAT is? It's a sales tax, same as State sales taxes in the US.

Crap, we have no federal sales tax. We have federal excise taxes on certain goods, e.g. gas, alcohol. State sales tax vary. There is no sales tax in Oregon.

And I might also mention that State income taxes are taxes on the consumption of those so poor they cannot afford to move to the Southwest.

State income taxes are taxes on income. A typical consumption tax is a sales tax. BTW, Alaska has a direct flight from PDX to Phoenix in June for $119. Very affordable.

-- Jay Beattie.

What is the tax situation in Oregon? Oregon is no longer listed as a state to retire in. Why is that unless it's because you're living there?

On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 6:31:20 PM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 10:42:14 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what?

Lateral thinking.

Andre Jute
Fulfilled

Mustn't let Chalo know that you actually made money. He will hate you forever after.

On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:40:58 PM UTC-5, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 11:41:22 PM UTC, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 12/14/2019 5:42 PM, jbeattie wrote:

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what?

What he does is troll aggressively and obnoxiously.

You're in my thread whining, again, Franki-boy. Why don't you start your own thread to to whine in. We're really very tired of your constant negativity.

Many of us

Who are these "many"? The clowns who claim they don't read me so that they can preserve their inflated self-images? And yet I still find you repeatedly in my threads, claiming to know what I'm doing, without reading me. Gee, you guys could make a living on the freak circuit as telepaths.

would prefer he found something else to do, something that
was a little productive and a lot more distant.

Here we go again with Franki-boy's wet dream of one Frank Krygowski deciding what passes muster as conversation. Funny how that is always his own view, never mine, even when it is my conversation he is intruding into.

I've told you before, Krygowski, **** off out of my face and by next week I'll have to ask who you are. Worthless jerk-offs like you don't exist except when they're noticed by people like me.

Ande Jute
Charisma is the art of infuriating losers by merely lounging elegantly

Damn, you're boring.

On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 6:49:14 PM UTC-8, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 2:42:14 PM UTC-8, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:30:11 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:00:24 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US does not have the luxury of Chapter 11.

Stick to the law, Jay. You don't know **** about economics either, or realpolitik. If Donald Trump were to wake up in the morning with a sore head (everyone should consider themselves lucky that he's a teetotaller -- heh-heh) and announce that the US were repudiating all her foreign debts, everyone else except the US would hurt. (Here's a hint: he wouldn't put it like that, he'd announce the US was changing over to the Coyote Standard or some such.) And they'd immediately start buying US Treasury Bonds again, because they have too much stake in the US economy to let it slow or go under. And if they were slow, Trump would only have to hint that he was nationalising their US assets at nightfall for them to see the sense and logic of his position.

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what? If the US defaulted on all its debt, the economic system in the US as we know it would fail for a variety of reasons. The government lights would go off, and TK's Social Security welfare would be done. I'm not even talking about the foreign held debt or the world-wide effect of the collapse of our currency, although the failure of our currency would lead to massive inflation.

This is all imaginary since the US cannot constitutionally default on its debt (and redemption is by maturity date anyway, so the US would not default all at once). Taxes would have to be raised to meet obligations; the US would sell naming rights to the Washington Monument to Huawei. It would be the biggest fire sale in history. Massive, massive inflation.

Moving past the imaginary default Armageddon, the reality is that cutting tax revenues and rampant deficit spending just means inflation, higher borrowing costs, higher taxes -- basically another recession for the administration that gets stuck with the tab, regardless of party, although usually Democrat.

Ande Jute
If you owe the bank a thousand dollars you can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank a hundred million dollars you *won't* pay, the bank is n trouble.

Not with collateralized debt or when the borrower is constitutionally obligated to repay the debt. In the real world, a bank would manage the risk with credit default swaps, credit insurance, etc., etc. Banks are not stupid, usually.

-- Jay Beattie.

Please don't pretend to be an economist. If we defaulted on our national debt it would be a problem but not that national catastrophe you seem to believe it. Has Greece or Turkey disappeared off of the mape

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_...nt-debt_crisis Now scale that up 100 fold and don't expect a bail-out from the EU. Welcome to the third world. Bond holders might take a haircut, but not without terms, like all of your SS being paid to them. Your welfare gravy-train will be over. Time to sell the Basso. Chinese bond holders have already foreclosed on the White House, and its going to be used as an air BNB and take-out Chinese restaurant. https://weeklyworldnews.com/headline...n-white-house/


Actually, my serious post about national debt was pretty spot on with what happened in Greece, at least in a generic sense about taxes, inflation and recession.


-- Jay Beattie.

On Sunday, December 15, 2019 at 3:51:10 AM UTC, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:40:58 PM UTC-5, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 11:41:22 PM UTC, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 12/14/2019 5:42 PM, jbeattie wrote:

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what?

What he does is troll aggressively and obnoxiously.

You're in my thread whining, again, Franki-boy. Why don't you start your own thread to to whine in. We're really very tired of your constant negativity.

Many of us

Who are these "many"? The clowns who claim they don't read me so that they can preserve their inflated self-images? And yet I still find you repeatedly in my threads, claiming to know what I'm doing, without reading me. Gee, you guys could make a living on the freak circuit as telepaths.

would prefer he found something else to do, something that
was a little productive and a lot more distant.

Here we go again with Franki-boy's wet dream of one Frank Krygowski deciding what passes muster as conversation. Funny how that is always his own view, never mine, even when it is my conversation he is intruding into.

I've told you before, Krygowski, **** off out of my face and by next week I'll have to ask who you are. Worthless jerk-offs like you don't exist except when they're noticed by people like me.

Ande Jute
Charisma is the art of infuriating losers by merely lounging elegantly

Damn, you're boring.

Well then, Franki-boy, if you find me so boring, **** off out of my threads, stop lying in them that you don't read me, and take your wretched claque with you. You haven't said a single interesting thing in the dozen years or so that I've been here. Slam the door on your way out, and maybe someone will notice you and feel sorry for you; that's the best such a pointless twerp as you can hope for.

Andre Jute
“A masterly story that has pace, humor, tension and excitement with the bonus of truth.� -- The Australian
"Just about every automobile manufacturer short of Porsche could learn something useful from Jute's book. We always knew suspensions were important, but he infuses them with excitement and art." -- CAR

On Sunday, December 15, 2019 at 3:02:59 AM UTC, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 6:31:20 PM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 10:42:14 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what?

Lateral thinking.

Andre Jute
Fulfilled

Mustn't let Chalo know that you actually made money. He will hate you forever after.

Chalo's okay. He shares his expertise with anyone who asks respectfully, even conservatives, and he has some first-class insights, like that the natural stakeholders in the roads are cyclists, whereas motorists require permission from the government (a driving license, car registration) to use the roads. You can't ask more than that from someone on a technical conference, and especially not a cantankerous schoolyard such as RBT.

Ande Jute
Observer

On 12/14/2019 4:42 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:30:11 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:00:24 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US does not have the luxury of Chapter 11.

Stick to the law, Jay. You don't know **** about economics either, or realpolitik. If Donald Trump were to wake up in the morning with a sore head (everyone should consider themselves lucky that he's a teetotaller -- heh-heh) and announce that the US were repudiating all her foreign debts, everyone else except the US would hurt. (Here's a hint: he wouldn't put it like that, he'd announce the US was changing over to the Coyote Standard or some such.) And they'd immediately start buying US Treasury Bonds again, because they have too much stake in the US economy to let it slow or go under. And if they were slow, Trump would only have to hint that he was nationalising their US assets at nightfall for them to see the sense and logic of his position.

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what? If the US defaulted on all its debt, the economic system in the US as we know it would fail for a variety of reasons. The government lights would go off, and TK's Social Security welfare would be done. I'm not even talking about the foreign held debt or the world-wide effect of the collapse of our currency, although the failure of our currency would lead to massive inflation.

This is all imaginary since the US cannot constitutionally default on its debt (and redemption is by maturity date anyway, so the US would not default all at once). Taxes would have to be raised to meet obligations; the US would sell naming rights to the Washington Monument to Huawei. It would be the biggest fire sale in history. Massive, massive inflation.

Moving past the imaginary default Armageddon, the reality is that cutting tax revenues and rampant deficit spending just means inflation, higher borrowing costs, higher taxes -- basically another recession for the administration that gets stuck with the tab, regardless of party, although usually Democrat.

Ande Jute
If you owe the bank a thousand dollars you can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank a hundred million dollars you *won't* pay, the bank is n trouble.

Not with collateralized debt or when the borrower is constitutionally obligated to repay the debt. In the real world, a bank would manage the risk with credit default swaps, credit insurance, etc., etc. Banks are not stupid, usually.

-- Jay Beattie.


My intuitions are along the same lines as you but
macroeconomics can seem to defy rational analysis (the
'experts' are wrong as often as right). 14 months ago I
bought T-bills, but right now US debt is so dirt cheap it's
pointless. Meanwhile US Dollar continues very strong and,
whether because of DJT or not, Chinese Yuan is tanking.
Chinese corporate bonds have gone to default over the past
few months and this week the first Chinese GSE bonds missed
payments. From first principles, we _should_ be crying
Argentina's song. But no.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Sun, 15 Dec 2019 10:01:26 -0600, AMuzi wrote:

On 12/14/2019 4:42 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:30:11 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:00:24 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US does not have the luxury of Chapter 11.

Stick to the law, Jay. You don't know **** about economics either, or realpolitik. If Donald Trump were to wake up in the morning with a sore head (everyone should consider themselves lucky that he's a teetotaller -- heh-heh) and announce that the US were repudiating all her foreign debts, everyone else except the US would hurt. (Here's a hint: he wouldn't put it like that, he'd announce the US was changing over to the Coyote Standard or some such.) And they'd immediately start buying US Treasury Bonds again, because they have too much stake in the US economy to let it slow or go under. And if they were slow, Trump would only have to hint that he was nationalising their US assets at nightfall for them to see the sense and logic of his position.

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what? If the US defaulted on all its debt, the economic system in the US as we know it would fail for a variety of reasons. The government lights would go off, and TK's Social Security welfare would be done. I'm not even talking about the foreign held debt or the world-wide effect of the collapse of our currency, although the failure of our currency would lead to massive inflation.

This is all imaginary since the US cannot constitutionally default on its debt (and redemption is by maturity date anyway, so the US would not default all at once). Taxes would have to be raised to meet obligations; the US would sell naming rights to the Washington Monument to Huawei. It would be the biggest fire sale in history. Massive, massive inflation.

Moving past the imaginary default Armageddon, the reality is that cutting tax revenues and rampant deficit spending just means inflation, higher borrowing costs, higher taxes -- basically another recession for the administration that gets stuck with the tab, regardless of party, although usually Democrat.

Ande Jute
If you owe the bank a thousand dollars you can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank a hundred million dollars you *won't* pay, the bank is n trouble.

Not with collateralized debt or when the borrower is constitutionally obligated to repay the debt. In the real world, a bank would manage the risk with credit default swaps, credit insurance, etc., etc. Banks are not stupid, usually.

-- Jay Beattie.


My intuitions are along the same lines as you but
macroeconomics can seem to defy rational analysis (the
'experts' are wrong as often as right). 14 months ago I
bought T-bills, but right now US debt is so dirt cheap it's
pointless. Meanwhile US Dollar continues very strong and,
whether because of DJT or not, Chinese Yuan is tanking.
Chinese corporate bonds have gone to default over the past
few months and this week the first Chinese GSE bonds missed
payments. From first principles, we _should_ be crying
Argentina's song. But no.

Is the Chinese Yuan "tanking" My records show that the Yuan is
stronger (yesterday) than it has been since August?
However, my exchange rate site lists two currencies for China am
Offshore rate, which I have been using, and a second rate that is
very slightly lower against the dollar.
--
cheers,

John B.

On Sunday, December 15, 2019 at 4:01:40 PM UTC, AMuzi wrote:
On 12/14/2019 4:42 PM, jbeattie wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:30:11 AM UTC-8, Andre Jute wrote:
On Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 4:00:24 PM UTC, jbeattie wrote:

The US does not have the luxury of Chapter 11.

Stick to the law, Jay. You don't know **** about economics either, or realpolitik. If Donald Trump were to wake up in the morning with a sore head (everyone should consider themselves lucky that he's a teetotaller -- heh-heh) and announce that the US were repudiating all her foreign debts, everyone else except the US would hurt. (Here's a hint: he wouldn't put it like that, he'd announce the US was changing over to the Coyote Standard or some such.) And they'd immediately start buying US Treasury Bonds again, because they have too much stake in the US economy to let it slow or go under. And if they were slow, Trump would only have to hint that he was nationalising their US assets at nightfall for them to see the sense and logic of his position.

Andre, stick to whatever it is you do, which is what? If the US defaulted on all its debt, the economic system in the US as we know it would fail for a variety of reasons. The government lights would go off, and TK's Social Security welfare would be done. I'm not even talking about the foreign held debt or the world-wide effect of the collapse of our currency, although the failure of our currency would lead to massive inflation.

This is all imaginary since the US cannot constitutionally default on its debt (and redemption is by maturity date anyway, so the US would not default all at once). Taxes would have to be raised to meet obligations; the US would sell naming rights to the Washington Monument to Huawei. It would be the biggest fire sale in history. Massive, massive inflation.

Moving past the imaginary default Armageddon, the reality is that cutting tax revenues and rampant deficit spending just means inflation, higher borrowing costs, higher taxes -- basically another recession for the administration that gets stuck with the tab, regardless of party, although usually Democrat.

Ande Jute
If you owe the bank a thousand dollars you can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank a hundred million dollars you *won't* pay, the bank is n trouble.

Not with collateralized debt or when the borrower is constitutionally obligated to repay the debt. In the real world, a bank would manage the risk with credit default swaps, credit insurance, etc., etc. Banks are not stupid, usually.

-- Jay Beattie.


My intuitions are along the same lines as you but
macroeconomics can seem to defy rational analysis (the
'experts' are wrong as often as right). 14 months ago I
bought T-bills, but right now US debt is so dirt cheap it's
pointless. Meanwhile US Dollar continues very strong and,
whether because of DJT or not, Chinese Yuan is tanking.
Chinese corporate bonds have gone to default over the past
few months and this week the first Chinese GSE bonds missed
payments. From first principles, we _should_ be crying
Argentina's song. But no.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

If you think of macro as quantum economics, you'll never be disappointed. -- AJ